<p>Before a new flight control system is released for flight, a huge number of simulations are evaluated to find weaknesses of the system. This process is called flight clearance. Flight clearance is a very important but time consuming process. There is a need of better flight clearance methods and one of the most promising methods is the use of optimization. In this thesis the flight clearance of a simulation model of JAS 39 Gripen is examined. Two flight clearance algorithms using two different optimization methods are evaluated and compared to each other and to a traditional flight clearance method.</p><p>In this thesis the flight clearance process is separated into three cases: search for the worst flight condition, search for the worst manoeuvre and search for the worst flight condition including parameter uncertainties. For all cases the optimization algorithms find a more dangerous case than the traditional method. In the search for worst flight condition, both with and without uncertainties, the optimization algorithms are to prefer to the traditional method with respect to the clearance results and the number of objective function calls. The search for the worst manoeuvre is a much more complex problem. Even as the algorithms find more dangerous manoeuvres than the traditional method, it is not certain that they find the worst manoeuvres. If not other methods should be used the problem has to be rephrased. For example other optimization variables or a few linearizations of the optimization problem could reduce the complexity.</p><p>The overall impression is that the need of information and problem characteristics define which method that is most suitable to use. The information required must be weighed against the cost of objective function calls. Compared to the traditional method, the optimization methods used in this thesis give extended information about the problems examined and are better to locate the worst case.</p>

Electrostatically actuated parallel-plate MEMS tunable capacitors are desired elements for different applications including sensing, actuating and communications and RF (radio frequency) engineering for their superior characteristics such as quick response, high Q-factor and small size. However, due to the nature of their coupled electrostatic-structural physics, they suffer from low tuning range of 50% and have nonlinear capacitance-voltage (C-V) responses which are very sensitive to the voltage change near pull-in voltage. Numerous studies in the literature introduce new designs with high tunability ranging from 100% to over 1500%, but improvement of the nonlinearity and high sensitivity of the capacitor response have not received enough attention. In this thesis, novel highly tunable capacitors with high linearity are proposed to reduce sensitivity to the voltage changes near pull-in. The characteristic equations of a perfectly linear capacitor are first derived for two- and three-plate capacitors to obtain insight for developing linear capacitance-voltage responses. The devices proposed in this research may be classified into three categories: designs with nonlinear structural rigidities, geometric modifications and flexible moving electrodes. The concept of nonlinear supporting beams is exploited to develop parallel-plate capacitors with partially linear C-V curves. Novel electrodes with triangular, trapezoidal, butterfly, zigzag and fishbone shapes and structural/geometric nonlinearities are used to increase the linearity and tuning ratio of the response. To investigate the capacitors' behavior, an analytical approximate model is developed which can drastically decrease the computation time. The model is ideal for early design and optimization stages. Using this model, design variables are optimized for maximum linearity of the C-V responses. The results of the proposed modeling approach are verified by ANSYS FEM simulations and/or experimental data. When the fabrication process has dimensional limitations, design modifications and geometric enhancements are implemented to improve the linearity of the C-V response. The design techniques proposed in this thesis can provide tunabilities ranging from 80% to over 350% with highly linear regions in resulting C-V curves. Due to the low sensitivity of the capacitance to voltage changes in new designs, the entire tuning range is usable. Furthermore, the effect of fabrication uncertainties on parallel-plate capacitors performance is studied and a sensitivity analysis is performed to find the design variables with maximum impact on the C-V curves. An optimization method is then introduced to immunize the design against fabrication uncertainties and to maximize the production yield for MEMS tunable capacitors. The method approximates the feasible region and the probability distribution functions of the design variables to directly maximize the yield. Numerical examples with two different sets of design variables demonstrate significant increase in the yield. The presented optimization method can be advantageously utilized in design stage to improve the yield without increasing the fabrication cost or complexity.

Before a new flight control system is released for flight, a huge number of simulations are evaluated to find weaknesses of the system. This process is called flight clearance. Flight clearance is a very important but time consuming process. There is a need of better flight clearance methods and one of the most promising methods is the use of optimization. In this thesis the flight clearance of a simulation model of JAS 39 Gripen is examined. Two flight clearance algorithms using two different optimization methods are evaluated and compared to each other and to a traditional flight clearance method. In this thesis the flight clearance process is separated into three cases: search for the worst flight condition, search for the worst manoeuvre and search for the worst flight condition including parameter uncertainties. For all cases the optimization algorithms find a more dangerous case than the traditional method. In the search for worst flight condition, both with and without uncertainties, the optimization algorithms are to prefer to the traditional method with respect to the clearance results and the number of objective function calls. The search for the worst manoeuvre is a much more complex problem. Even as the algorithms find more dangerous manoeuvres than the traditional method, it is not certain that they find the worst manoeuvres. If not other methods should be used the problem has to be rephrased. For example other optimization variables or a few linearizations of the optimization problem could reduce the complexity. The overall impression is that the need of information and problem characteristics define which method that is most suitable to use. The information required must be weighed against the cost of objective function calls. Compared to the traditional method, the optimization methods used in this thesis give extended information about the problems examined and are better to locate the worst case.

Electrostatically actuated parallel-plate MEMS tunable capacitors are desired elements for different applications including sensing, actuating and communications and RF (radio frequency) engineering for their superior characteristics such as quick response, high Q-factor and small size. However, due to the nature of their coupled electrostatic-structural physics, they suffer from low tuning range of 50% and have nonlinear capacitance-voltage (C-V) responses which are very sensitive to the voltage change near pull-in voltage. Numerous studies in the literature introduce new designs with high tunability ranging from 100% to over 1500%, but improvement of the nonlinearity and high sensitivity of the capacitor response have not received enough attention. In this thesis, novel highly tunable capacitors with high linearity are proposed to reduce sensitivity to the voltage changes near pull-in. The characteristic equations of a perfectly linear capacitor are first derived for two- and three-plate capacitors to obtain insight for developing linear capacitance-voltage responses. The devices proposed in this research may be classified into three categories: designs with nonlinear structural rigidities, geometric modifications and flexible moving electrodes. The concept of nonlinear supporting beams is exploited to develop parallel-plate capacitors with partially linear C-V curves. Novel electrodes with triangular, trapezoidal, butterfly, zigzag and fishbone shapes and structural/geometric nonlinearities are used to increase the linearity and tuning ratio of the response. To investigate the capacitors' behavior, an analytical approximate model is developed which can drastically decrease the computation time. The model is ideal for early design and optimization stages. Using this model, design variables are optimized for maximum linearity of the C-V responses. The results of the proposed modeling approach are verified by ANSYS FEM simulations and/or experimental data. When the fabrication process has dimensional limitations, design modifications and geometric enhancements are implemented to improve the linearity of the C-V response. The design techniques proposed in this thesis can provide tunabilities ranging from 80% to over 350% with highly linear regions in resulting C-V curves. Due to the low sensitivity of the capacitance to voltage changes in new designs, the entire tuning range is usable. Furthermore, the effect of fabrication uncertainties on parallel-plate capacitors performance is studied and a sensitivity analysis is performed to find the design variables with maximum impact on the C-V curves. An optimization method is then introduced to immunize the design against fabrication uncertainties and to maximize the production yield for MEMS tunable capacitors. The method approximates the feasible region and the probability distribution functions of the design variables to directly maximize the yield. Numerical examples with two different sets of design variables demonstrate significant increase in the yield. The presented optimization method can be advantageously utilized in design stage to improve the yield without increasing the fabrication cost or complexity.

Titel: Risk och osäkerhetsfaktorer i årsredovisningen   Nivå: C-uppsats i ämnet företagsekonomi   Författare: Ann Forsström och Mikael Örtenvik   Handledare: Fredrik Hartwig   Datum: 2012 – April   Syfte: Syftet med vår studie är att undersöka den frivilliga rapporteringen av risk och osäkerhetsfaktorer i årsredovisningar.   Metod: Vi har använt en abduktiv ansats och genomfört en kvalitativ såväl som kvantitativ innehållsanalys av utvalda bolags årsredovisningar. Vi prövar 5 olika hypotester genom multipel regessionsanalys. Vår insamlade data redovisas både i tabell- och textform.   Resultat &amp; slutsats: Undersökningen visar att det finns en signifikans i hypotes 5: det finns ett samband mellan ett bolags skuldsättningsgrad och antalet redovisade risker och osäkerheter.  Övriga hypoteser har ingen signifikans och förkastas därmed. Vid genomgången av undersökningsbolagens årsredovisningar finner vi dock att det finns betydande skillnader i redovisningen av risker och osäkerheter mellan de undersökta bolagen.    Förslag till fortsattforskning: Det skulle vara intressant med en jämförelse av bolag som verkar inom samma typ av försäljning t ex. tjänstesektorn inom IT och där göra en djupare analys av vilka typer av risker bolagen utsätts för och hur de hanterar dem, en kvalitativ undersökning med intervjuer.   Uppsatsens bidrag:  Uppsatsen kan, av intressenter i branschen industri, ses som en upplysning om hur väl bolagen tillämpar reglerna kring risk- och osäkerhetsfaktorer.   Nyckelord: Risk, osäkerhetsfaktorer, ÅRL, IAS, årsredovisning. / Title: Risk and uncertainties in annual report   Level: Final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration   Author: Ann Forsström and Mikael Örtenvik   Supervisor: Fredrik Hartwig   Date: 2012– April   Aim: The aim of our study is to investigate the voluntary reporting of risks and uncertainties in the financial statements.   Method: We used an abductive approach and perform a qualitative as well as quantitative content analysis of selected company´s annual reports. We test five different hypothesis by multiple regression analysis. Our collected data is presented both in tabular and textual form.   Result &amp; Conclusions: The survey shows that there is an significance in hypothesis 5: there is a correlation between a company's gearing and the number of reported risks and uncertainties. Other hypotheses have no significance and hence rejected. In evaluating the companies' annual survey, we find that there are significant differences in the reporting of risks and uncertainties among the surveyed companies.   Suggestions for future research: It would be interesting to compare the companies working in the same type of sale for example. services in IT and where to do a deeper analysis of the types of risks companies are exposed to and how they handle them, a qualitative study with interviews.   Contribution of the thesis: The essay may, by stakeholders in the business industry, seen as an enlightenment on how well companies are applying the rules on risk and uncertainties.   Key words: Risk, uncertainties, ÅRL, IAS, annual report.

This thesis concerns stability analysis and robust H¡Û performance analysis for discrete-time systems with interval time-varying delay; moreover, the results are extended to the systems with norm-bounded uncertainties. By defining a novel Lyapunov functional and combining delay partition methods to improve the results in existing literature, we obtain a less conservative linear matrix inequality condition to guarantee the asymptotic stability for the discrete-time systems. There are examples to illustrate the advantage of our method in every chapter.

I examine how political geography affects firms' cost of debt. Policy risk, measured by proximity to political power reflected in firms' position in the country's political map, is negatively related to corporate bond ratings and positively related to firms' cost of debt. I find firms' policy risk can be mitigated by engaging in corporate political strategies like making campaign contributions or lobbying. Consistent with the view that such political strategies effectively protect firms against uncertainty about future policies, I find policy risk has less of an impact on the cost of debt of firms that support more powerful and well-connected politicians in the legislative co-sponsorship network or that spend more money on lobbying. Using a sample of state pension funds' equity holdings, I find that state pension funds exhibit not only local bias but also bias towards politically connected stocks. These politically connected local firms held by state pension funds do not exhibit better performance compared with their local benchmarks not held by these funds before the holding period, and the overweighting of politically connected local firms is negatively related to pension fund returns. My results do not support the information advantage hypothesis that state pension funds exhibit overweighting of local firms because they have an information advantage about home-state firms. I further examine the factors that explain local bias from political perspectives. My results show that local bias is related to public policy integrity and local politicians' congressional connections.

This dissertation research focuses on modeling and evaluating multivariate uncertainties and the dependency between the uncertainties. Managing risk and making strategic decisions under uncertainty is critically important for both individual and corporate success. In this dissertation research, we present two new methodologies, the implied binomial tree approach and the dependent decision tree approach, to modeling multivariate decision making problems with practical applications in real options valuation. First, we present the implied binomial tree approach to consolidate the representation of multiple sources of uncertainty into univariate uncertainty, while capturing the impact of these uncertainties on the project’s cash flows. This approach provides a nonparametric extension of the approaches in the literature by allowing the project value to follow a generalized diffusion process in which the volatility may vary with time and with the asset prices, therefore offering more modeling flexibility. This approach was motivated by the Implied Binomial Tree (IBT) approach that is widely used to value complex financial options. By constructing the implied recombining binomial tree in a way so as to be consistent with the simulated market information, we extended the finance-based IBT method for real options valuation — when the options are contingent on the value of one or more market related uncertainties that are not traded assets. Further, we present a general framework based on copulas for modeling dependent multivariate uncertainties through the use of a decision tree. The proposed dependent decision tree model allows multiple dependent uncertainties with arbitrary marginal distributions to be represented in a decision tree with a sequence of conditional probability distributions. This general framework could be naturally applied in decision analysis and real options valuations, as well as in more general applications of dependent probability trees. While this approach to modeling dependencies can be based on several popular copula families as we illustrate, we focus on the use of the normal copula and present an efficient computational method for multivariate decision and risk analysis that can be standardized for convenient application. / text

The main goal of the thesis is to develop a monitoring instrument for climate policy that is based on the Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC guidelines. The instrument developed is based on a "Full Carbon Accounting" approach which takes into account the carbon flows of the biosphere as well as those related to society's metabolism. Conceptually the analysis is based on the epistemological concept of society nature interaction comprising society's metabolism and colonisation of nature as main starting points. This leads to the empirical concept of material flow analysis. The thesis quantifies the carbon flows and the related uncertainties of the Austrian economy for 1990 for selected areas in a consistent way. The thesis also tries to build up a framework for system of indicators that would allow evaluating climate policy. (author´s abstract)

Atualmente é bem conhecido que o uso de dispositivos passivos de dissipação de energia, tais como amortecedores por atrito, reduzem consideravelmente a resposta dinâmica de estruturas. Entretanto, os melhores parâmetros de cada amortecedor e também a melhor posição para instalá-los dentro da estrutura permanecem difíceis de serem estabelecidas. Assim, a otimização de amortecedores é uma área que vem sendo estudada de forma crescente nos últimos anos, tendo grande impacto no projeto ótimo de dispositivos para o controle de vibrações de estruturas, possibilitando obter soluções seguras e ao mesmo tempo econômicas. Contudo, apesar dos amortecedores de vibração por atrito possuírem algumas vantagens em relação a outros dispositivos passivos, poucos trabalhos são encontrados sobre a otimização de seus parâmetros ou sobre a sua melhor posição dentro de uma estrutura, devido à maior dificuldade de se calcular sistemas que envolvem atrito, por este ser não-linear. Entretanto, é interessante se levar em conta as incertezas presentes nas propriedades estruturais e/ou na excitação dinâmica no processo de otimização, o que leva a um problema de otimização sob incerteza, como otimização robusta e otimização baseada em confiabilidade. Assim, nesta Tese é proposta uma metodologia para a otimização simultânea dos parâmetros e das posições de amortecedores de vibração por atrito a serem instalados em edifícios submetidos à excitação sísmica levando em conta as incertezas presentes tanto nas propriedades estruturais quanto no carregamento sísmico, assim como nas forças de atrito dos amortecedores. A fim de ilustrar a metodologia, dois exemplos de aplicação são apresentados, sendo o primeiro sobre otimização robusta e o segundo sobre otimização baseada em confiabilidade. Os resultados mostraram, em ambos os exemplos, que o método proposto obteve sucesso, melhorando consideravelmente o comportamento dinâmico dos edifícios estudados, mesmo para um número limitado de dispositivos instalados. Portanto, acredita-se que a metodologia de otimização desenvolvida constitui uma ferramenta eficaz para o projeto ótimo de amortecedores por atrito. / Nowadays it is well known that the use of passive energy dissipation devices, such as friction dampers, considerably reduces the dynamic response of structures. However, the best parameters of each damper and also the best position to install them within the structure remain difficult to be determined. Thus, optimization of dampers is an area that has been increasingly studied in recent years, having a big impact in the optimal design of devices for the vibration control of structures, allowing to obtain safe and at the same time economic solutions. However, although friction dampers have some advantages over other passive devices, few contributions are found on optimization of their parameters or on their optimal position within a structure. This fact can be explained due to the greater difficulty in determining the response of systems involving friction, because their nonlinear behavior. In addition to the lack of studies on optimization of friction dampers, the few studies found in the literature consider the problem in a deterministic way. However, the uncertainties present in the structural properties and/or in the dynamic excitation can alter the optimal solution. Thus, it is important to take into account these uncertainties in the optimization process, which leads to an optimization problem under uncertainty, such as robust optimization and reliability-based optimization. Thus, in this Thesis, a methodology is proposed for the simultaneous optimization of parameters and positions of friction dampers to be installed in buildings subjected to seismic excitation taking into account uncertainties present in both the structural properties and the seismic load, as well as in the friction forces of the dampers. In order to illustrate the approach, two examples are presented, the first one on robust optimization and the second on reliabilitybased optimization. The results show, in both examples, that the proposed method considerably improves the dynamic behavior of the studied buildings, even for a limited number of installed devices. Therefore, it was shown that the proposed procedure is an effective tool for the optimum design of friction dampers.