Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Environmental Design and Planning Program / Lee R. Skabelund / Despite the growing number of urban adaptation planning initiatives to climate change hazards, there exist significant barriers related to implementation uncertainties that hinder translation of adaptation plans into actions, resulting in a widely recognized ‘planning-implementation gap’ across scales and regions. Bridging the planning-implementation gap will require overcoming implementation uncertainties by better understanding the relationships between the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and emerging adaptation options across spatial scales. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model published by Rounsevell, Dawson, and Harrison in 2010 provided a robust framework for identifying the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and the emerging adaptation options related to risk of changing climate and flooding events in the urban context. Drawing on evidence from the systematic review of 121 adaptation planning case studies across North America, this research derived qualitative and quantitative data, which was subsequently analyzed using binary logistic regression to generate objective and generalizable findings. The findings of binary logistic regression models suggest that the choice of specific adaptation options (namely enhancing adaptive capacity; management and conservation; and improving urban infrastructure, planning, and development) may be predicted based on the assessment of primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives (namely, anticipation of economic benefits; perceived threats to management and conservation of urban natural resources; support of human and social systems; and improvement of policy and regulations) in relation to the risk of changing climate and urban flooding events. This does not imply that other primary factors (namely information and knowledge; perceived funding and economic opportunities; evidence of climate change effects; and general concerns) have no or insignificant relationships with the selection of adaptation options, only that the review did not find evidence to support such claims. These study findings may offer useful guidance to the design and further development of planning and decision support tools that could be used for assessment of adaptation plans and selection of robust adaptation options that take account of uncertainties surrounding implementation of effective climate adaptation actions. Study findings can also inform evidence-based policy and investment decision making, especially in regions where urban adaptation plans are weak or absent.

Cette thèse explore l'adaptation urbaine au changement climatique dans les quartiers informels du Sud Global. Ce sont des lieux de grands défis et de réponses innovantes. Le contexte mondial d’exclusion postcoloniale et capitaliste entraîne la vulnérabilité et le risque supplémentaire du changement climatique augmente ces aléas contextuels. Des chercheurs ont critiqué les réponses traditionnelles en matière de planification de l’adaptation, les jugeant trop prescriptives, technologiquement dépendantes et manquant les besoins locaux. L’adaptation communautaire peut être trop isolée et axée sur les besoins des individus et des élites face à la diversité des défis locaux. Ni l’un ni l’autre ne prennent en compte les dimensions politiques de la planification de l’adaptation. En réponse, les spécialistes critiques de l’adaptation urbaine ont appelé à une meilleure compréhension des expériences locales afin de comprendre comment les gens priorisent, négocient et réagissent à une multiplicité de risques. En réponse à ces appels, ce projet cherche à mieux comprendre comment les gens perçoivent et répondent à ces défis à travers une étude de cas unique et exploratoire. Grâce à l’étude de cas qualitative dans le quartier de Panorama, situé dans la municipalité de Yumbo, en banlieue de Cali en Colombie, le projet cherche à comprendre comment l'identité et le pouvoir influencent l'accès aux ressources et aux institutions nécessaires pour s'adapter. Le projet se concentre sur deux sites de Panorama : un comité local d'aménagement soucieux de la sécurité foncière et une fondation écologique travaillant sur la conservation des espaces verts. Les résultats mettent en évidence des règles du jeu inégales où les habitants les plus vulnérables empruntent des voies parfois illégales pour accéder à la terre et au logement. Plus les résidents sont établis, plus ils bénéficient d'avantages et d'expérience pour jouer le système. Les dirigeants et les experts travaillent dur pour négocier entre les formalités. Cependant, l’absence d’un processus de planification transparent laisse divers intérêts se disputer les ressources, ce qui conduit parfois à des conflits et met fin à la créativité. Les résultats de la recherche suggèrent que la planification de l’adaptation urbaine dans les contextes informels des pays du Sud doit continuer à s’appuyer sur des recherches et des pratiques qui tiennent compte de la diversité et des conflits afin de mieux faciliter une réponse juste et équitable à la crise climatique. / This thesis explores urban adaptation to climate change in informal settlements of the Global South. These are the sites of great challenges and innovative responses. The global context of post-colonial and capitalist exclusion drives vulnerability and the added risk of climate change augments these contextual hazards. Researchers have criticized mainstream adaptation planning responses for being too prescriptive, technologically dependent, and missing local needs. Community-based adaptation can be too isolated and focused on individual and elite needs over the diversity of local challenges. Both fail to account for the political dimensions of adaptation planning. In response, critical urban adaptation scholars have called for a better understanding of local experiences to comprehend how people prioritize, negotiate, and respond to a multiplicity of risks. In answer to these calls, this project seeks to better understand how people perceive and respond to these challenges through a single exploratory case study. Through qualitative field research in Panorama, Yumbo, Colombia, the research looks to apprehend how identity and power influences access to resources and institutions needed to adapt. The project was hosted by a local research laboratory at the Universidad del Valle and focuses on two sites in Panorama: a local-planning committee concerned with land tenure security and an Ecological Foundation working on greenspace conservation. The results point to an uneven playing field where the most vulnerable inhabitants navigate sometimes illegal avenues to gain access to land and housing. The more established residents enjoy more advantages and experience in playing the system. The leaders and experts work hard to broker between formalities. However, the absence of a transparent planning process leaves diverse local interests to compete for resources, sometimes leading to conflict that closes down on creativity. The research findings suggest that urban adaptation planning in informal contexts of the Global South must continue to build on research and practice that accounts for diversity and conflict to better facilitate a just and equitable response to the climate crisis.