Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:09:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2620792 bytes, checksum: 4242ef5defb67f90d738c40b60a2e4df (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-09-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / In recent years an interminable succession of disasters has been witnessed, as floods, disruption of barrages, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, forest droughts and fires. These disasters have an extremely high price in lives, provoke ambient damages, many irreparable times, and imply in the investment of billions of dollar for repairing of the reached areas. Had strong rains that had occurred in the state of the Paraíba in the year of 2004, it was breached barrage of Camará, constructed in the river Riachão, in the basin of the Mamamguape. The violence of waters did not respect obstacles and provoked a devastation in the agricultural zone of Alagoa Nova, Areia and Mulúngu and urban area of Alagoa Grande, causing deaths and leaving hundreds of homelesses. The work in question presents a carried through socioeconomic diagnosis in the areas of the city of Alagoa Grande affected by the disruption of the cited barrage. Also the questions of the risks and the disasters provoked for floods and floodings in urban zones and the recovery of reached areas are boarded. It had as objective main to supply to the competent agencies subsidies the hierarchion of the actions of continuity of programs of investments the recovery and reconstruction of the related city. The survey of a series of information was carried through after, producing a data set and understood the politics of urban reorganization. The results of the diagnosis point with respect to the vulnerability of the city of Alagoa Grande floods and floodings, exactly in events of lesser intensity, therefore good part of its urban zone is located in topographical quota decrease having been bordered by the river Mamanguape beyond presenting inhabited marginal areas. More visible the socioeconomic impacts had been to the alteration of the familiar income, the nervousness of the people (psychological traumas), the incidence of illnesses of hídrica propagation and the crisis in the local commerce. The processes of reconstruction, recovery and restoration of the city will have to last per some years being demonstrated the fragility and the recklessness of the involved agencies. / Nos últimos anos tem-se presenciado uma sucessão interminável de desastres, como enchentes, rompimento de barragens, tempestades, terremotos, deslizamentos, erupções vulcânicas, secas e incêndios florestais. Estes desastres têm um preço extremamente alto em vidas, provocam danos ambientais, muitas vezes irreparáveis, e implicam no investimento de bilhões de dólares para reparação das áreas atingidas. Devido as fortes chuvas que ocorreram no estado da Paraíba no ano de 2004, rompeu-se a barragem de Camará, construída no rio Riachão, na bacia do Mamanguape. A violência das águas não respeitou obstáculos e provocou uma devastação na zona rural de Alagoa Nova, Areia e Mulungú e na área urbana de Alagoa Grande, causando mortes e deixando centenas de desabrigados. O trabalho em questão apresenta um diagnóstico socioeconômico realizado nas áreas da cidade de Alagoa Grande afetadas pelo rompimento da barragem citada. Também são abordadas as questões dos riscos e dos desastres provocados por enchentes e inundações em zonas urbanas e a recuperação de áreas atingidas. Teve como objetivo principal fornecer aos órgãos competentes subsídios para a hierarquização das ações de continuidade dos programas de investimentos para a recuperação e reconstrução da referida cidade. Foi realizado após o levantamento de uma série de informações, produzindo um conjunto de dados e entendido as políticas de reestruturação urbana. Os resultados do diagnóstico apontam para a vulnerabilidade da cidade de Alagoa Grande a enchentes e inundações, mesmo em eventos de menor intensidade, pois boa parte da sua zona urbana está localizada em cota topográfica baixa sendo margeada pelo rio Mamanguape além de apresentar áreas ribeirinhas habitadas. Os impactos socioeconômicos mais visíveis foram a alteração da renda familiar, o nervosismo das pessoas (traumas psicológicos), a incidência de doenças de veiculação hídrica e a crise no comércio local. Os processos de reconstrução, recuperação e restauração da cidade deverão perdurar por vários anos demonstrando a fragilidade e a negligência dos órgãos envolvidos.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente estudo objetiva contribuir para a construção de uma metodologia que possa integrar as abordagens da presença e da circulação da água em ambientes urbanos, destacando o caso das enchentes, por meio da criação de um mapeamento que consiga espacializar em detalhe o fenômeno. Além disso, uma análise que permita uma visão integrada da água - sua circulação, armazenamento e interações sócio-ambientais, que se estabeleceram ao longo da história, relacionando-a às transformações urbanas oriundas também das intervenções governamentais. Essa perspectiva de análise foi inserida na área da Grande Tijuca Zona Norte do município do Rio de Janeiro (RJ) - densamente habitada, com histórico de utilização da água apresentando problemas desde o processo de ocupação inicial. Hoje, problemas relacionados ao abastecimento de água pela rede geral da cidade e ligados à circulação superficial das águas em épocas de chuvas intensas, ocasionando as freqüentes enchentes urbanas; assolam a população. O que se busca identificar é a intensidade das mudanças ocorridas no ambiente no que diz respeito aos problemas relacionados à água: o aumento na demanda por abastecimento da rede geral de água; o saneamento básico; ao aporte de efluente de esgoto sobre os canais de drenagem principais e sobre a rede geral de esgoto; além do escoamento superficial das águas pluviais, que ocasionam as enchentes. Foram utilizadas como metodologia: o levantamento histórico da evolução urbana e a presença da água nos bairros, assim como o levantamento das características físicas do ambiente, a análise de políticas públicas e como a circulação da água nos bairros da Grande Tijuca se integra no espaço. Para a presença e o uso dos recursos hídricos, recorreram-se aos dados censitários do IBGE, visando uma análise evolutiva de 1991 a 2000, que resultaram em mapeamentos. Além disso, foi realizada uma inédita Carta de Enchentes de 2006, que espacializa o fenômeno em uma escala de 1:8000 e que permite uma análise rica em detalhes, como a extensão e a variabilidade do nível das enchentes na Grande Tijuca, rua a rua pelos bairros. As muitas enchentes urbanas na Grande Tijuca seriam a resposta do ambiente às transformações que se deram ao longo do tempo. Com a diminuição da qualidade de vida, a Grande Tijuca - e a cidade do Rio de Janeiro como um todo - vai ser alvo de políticas visando o controle desse processo atuante. No entanto, essas não parecem vislumbrar a totalidade do sistema, e se apresentam como obras desconexas e pontuais, uma vez que não foram observados o controle e eliminação das enchentes. O exemplo da Grande Tijuca, evidencia a necessidade de uma visão mais abrangente do planejamento e gestão não só dos recursos hídricos, mas do espaço urbano como um todo, inserida em uma gestão que leve a um real desenvolvimento local integrado / This research objects to contribute in the construction of a methodology that can integrate the boarding of the presence and the circulation of the water in urban environments, detaching the case of floods, with the creation of a mapping that obtains to specialize in detail the phenomenon. Besides, it aims to realize an analysis that allows to an integrated vision of the water - its circulation, storage, and its social-environmental interactions, that were established through the history, relating it to the urban transformations which were derived also by the governmental interventions. This perspective of analysis was inserted in the area of the Grande Tijuca - North Zone of the city of Rio de Janeiro - densely inhabited, with description of waters use shows problems since the initial occupation process. Nowadays, the problems related to the water supply by the general net of the city and the ones related on to the superficial circulation of waters at times of intense rains (that causes frequent urban floods) devastate the population. This work searches to identify the intensity of the changes that happened in the environment concerning to the problems related to the water: the increase in the demand for supplying of the general water net; the basic sanitation; the inputs of sewage effluent on the main canals of draining and the general net of sewer; beyond the superficial draining of the pluvial waters, which causes the floods. It was used as methodology: a historical review of the urban evolution and the presence of the water in the quarters, as well as the review of the physical characteristics of the environment, the analysis of public politics and as the way that the circulation of the water in the quarters of the Grande Tijuca integrates in the space. In order to study the presence and the use of the water resources it was used the census data of the IBGE, aiming at an evolutionary analysis from1991 to 2000 that they had resulted in mappings. Moreover, an unpublished Floods Chart of 2006 was realized, which specializes the phenomenon in a 1:8000 scale and allows a rich analysis in details, as the extension and the variability of the level of floods on the street by street of the quarters. The many urban floods in the Grande Tijuca would be the reply of the environment to the transformations that occurs for long time. With the reduction of the quality of life, the Grande Tijuca - and the city of Rio de Janeiro as a whole will be white of politics aiming at the control of this operating process. However, these do not seem to glimpse the totality of the system, and they present themselves as disconnected and pointed repairs, because they dont object the control and elimination of the floods. The example of the Tijuca, not only evidences the necessity of a more including vision of the planning and management of the water resources, as well as the urban space as a whole, inserted in a management that has led to a real integrated local development.

Em 1º de janeiro de 2010 uma grande enchente atingiu o município de São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP, causando enorme destruição, principalmente, ao seu patrimônio histórico. Após o desastre, a cidade viveu um intenso processo de Reconstrução. A pesquisa visa entender e registrar o episódio sob a ótica de quem o vivenciou, e procura relacioná-lo com o processo de expansão de ocupação urbana. Além disso, tem o intuito de apresentar as ações de recuperação e discutir os processos durante esse trabalho. Para tanto, traça um panorama de São Luiz do Paraitinga a partir de suas condições físicas e da bacia hidrográfica do Paraitinga, na qual se insere, relacionando suas peculiaridades e as transformações ambientais. Aborda a questão socioeconômica do município, contextualizando sua importância histórica com destaque aos aspectos culturais e, ao patrimônio arquitetônico, herança do período cafeeiro, que deram a São Luiz do Paraitinga, o título de patrimônio estadual e nacional. Através da análise da expansão urbana, partindo de bibliografia, pesquisa em campo, comparação de imagens antigas e atuais apresenta a condição da cidade e seus conflitos ambientais urbanos até o momento anterior à enchente. Então, relata o evento da grande cheia ocorrida no dia 1º de janeiro de 2010 com o início do transbordamento do Rio Paraitinga, até o ápice da inundação no dia 2 de janeiro, deixando o centro da cidade submerso e provocando o arruinamento de vários imóveis. Na sequência são elencados os danos causados e a situação caótica após a vazão das águas. Distingue-se o período denominado de Reconstrução em dois momentos, o primeiro versa sobre as ações emergenciais e o segundo trata as ações de planejamento. Considerando a importância do patrimônio arquitetônico luizense, os danos sofridos e a forte intervenção para sua recuperação, abordam-se as novas diretrizes estabelecidas, bem como, os projetos de reconstrução a partir de quatro imóveis representativos. Por fim, o trabalho retoma as principais considerações feitas ao longo do trabalho e expõe algumas possibilidades para o futuro da cidade, entre elas: a necessidade de compreensão da bacia hidrográfica e de ações a nível regional para resolver as cheias do Paraitinga; a reconciliação da cidade com esse rio; a responsabilidade na prevenção e fiscalização para que novas ocupações não interfiram na dinâmica dos rios. Lembrando que a irresponsabilidade, omissão do Poder Público e interesses particulares propiciaram a criação de áreas de risco e vulneráveis a enchentes. Quanto à questão patrimonial, mostra-se imprescindível a implantação de programas de educação patrimonial, a recomposição do conjunto histórico e o tratamento das feridas deixadas pelas obras de contenção que ainda impactam na paisagem urbana. Reafirma-se, que a enchente, foi um divisor de águas para o município e apesar de ter sido uma catástrofe também trouxe oportunidades. São Luiz encontrou na coragem da comunidade e no trabalho coletivo um meio de avançar e sair da crise. Mas o desafio ainda está posto, e há muito por ser feito, lição deixada pela grande enchente de 2010 e que não deve ser esquecida. / On January 1st, 2010, a major flood hit the city of São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP, causing great destruction, mainly to its historical heritage. After the disaster, the city experienced an intense process of Reconstruction. The research aims to understand and record the episode under the perspective of those who lived it, and seeks to relate it to the process of expansion of urban occupation. Moreover, it intends to present the recovery actions and discuss the process during this work. To this end, it draws an overview of São Luiz do Paraitinga from its physical conditions and the hydrographic basin of Paraitinga, relating the peculiarities of it and its environmental transformations. It addresses the social and economic issues of the city, contextualizing its historical significance highlighting the cultural aspects and the architectural patrimony, heritage of the coffee period, which gave São Luiz do Paraitinga the title of State and National Patrimony. Through the analysis of urban expansion, starting from the literature, field research, comparison of past and present images, the condition of the city and its urban environmental conflicts until the moment right before the flood presents itself. Then, it reports the big flood that occurred on January 1st, 2010, with the beginning of Paraitinga Rivers overflow until the flood peak on January 2nd, leaving the city center submerged and causing collapse of several properties. Following, there are listed the damage and chaotic situation after the water flow. The time known as Reconstruction is distinguished in two moments: the first one deals with the emergencial actions, and the second one with planning actions. Considering the importance of local architectural patrimony, the damage done and the strong intervention for its recovery, new established guidelines are approached, as well as the reconstruction projects starting from four representative properties. At last, the paper refers to the main considerations made throughout the work and exposes some possibilities to the future of the city, including: the necessity of understanding the hydrographic basin and the action, on a regional level, to solve Paraitinga Rivers spate; the reconciliation of the city with the river; the responsibility of preventing and monitoring to avoid that new occupations interfere in the dynamic of the rivers. Remembering that the irresponsibility government, omission and private interests enabled the occurance of risk areas vulnerable to floods. As for the patrimonial issue, it appears to be indispensable the implementation of education programs regarding the patrimony, the restoration of historic site and the treatment of the wounds left by the containment works that yet cause impact on the urban landscape. It is essential to reassert that the flood was a turning point to the city and even though it was a catastrophe, also brought opportunities. São Luiz found in the courage of its community and the collective work a way to move forward and overcome the crisis. But the challenge is still set, and there is still a lot to be done, lesson left by the great flood of 2010 that shall not be forgotten.

Este é um trabalho sobre as enchentes e as infraestruturas de drenagem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Ele apresenta sua evolução histórica, na forma determinada pela submissão das diretrizes de drenagem aos interesses específicos no aproveitamento do potencial hidrelétrico das águas, na exploração capitalista do espaço de suas margens e na destinação de recursos de saneamento para a abertura de avenidas de fundo de vale. O trabalho observa que através deste processo a capacidade de escoamento das cheias na rede foi mantida em patamares abaixo do necessário, especialmente para atender vazões decorrentes do padrão de expansão da aglomeração, que resultaram em uma alta taxa de impermeabilização do solo e na paulatina ocupação das várzeas. O trabalho analisa a atuação do Estado e o desenvolvimento de diferentes programas de combate às inundações e planos de obra, focando a elaboração do Plano Diretor de Macrodrenagem, a partir de 1998. Então, é verificada a forma como os planos urbanísticos do município de São Paulo e das subprefeituras responderam às soluções propostas no plano de drenagem e os resultados obtidos até o momento com as obras de macrodrenagem. Conclui que a descontinuidade das soluções, a fragmentação das estâncias de planejamento e a ausência de uma unidade metropolitana de fato impedem que se estabeleçam soluções mais eficazes e, especialmente, que garantam a qualificação do espaço construído, levando em conta não apenas a demanda metropolitana pelo serviço prestado, mas também os aspectos sociais, econômicos e ambientais. / This paper focuses on floods and the drainage infrastructure in São Paulo Metropolitan Area. Firstly, it presents its evolution pointing out how economical interests in generating hydroeletric energy as well as in releasing new urban land prevailed over the initial drainage guidelines. It was also observed that confining streams within roads constrained its capacity to a low level to cope with growing peakflows demanded by the expansion of urban area which has led to increasing impervious surface rate. This was compounded by a gradual, but continuous, occupation of floodplains. State actions to deal with the above issues were analysed. Several flood control programs were developed leading to the 1998 Alto Tietê Watershed Macrodrainage Plan proposals. Then, these are studied in the light of how São Paulo\'s urban plans approached this subject, comparing their proposals with works built so far and the consequent outcomes. It is concluded that three main factors prevented that effective solution could come true: discontinuity of approaches, fragmentation of urban planning boards and lack of an actual metropolitan authority. Indeed, concerning drainage system, before these are overcome, many people still will long for urban improvement regarding social, economical and environmental aspects.

Este é um trabalho sobre as enchentes e as infraestruturas de drenagem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Ele apresenta sua evolução histórica, na forma determinada pela submissão das diretrizes de drenagem aos interesses específicos no aproveitamento do potencial hidrelétrico das águas, na exploração capitalista do espaço de suas margens e na destinação de recursos de saneamento para a abertura de avenidas de fundo de vale. O trabalho observa que através deste processo a capacidade de escoamento das cheias na rede foi mantida em patamares abaixo do necessário, especialmente para atender vazões decorrentes do padrão de expansão da aglomeração, que resultaram em uma alta taxa de impermeabilização do solo e na paulatina ocupação das várzeas. O trabalho analisa a atuação do Estado e o desenvolvimento de diferentes programas de combate às inundações e planos de obra, focando a elaboração do Plano Diretor de Macrodrenagem, a partir de 1998. Então, é verificada a forma como os planos urbanísticos do município de São Paulo e das subprefeituras responderam às soluções propostas no plano de drenagem e os resultados obtidos até o momento com as obras de macrodrenagem. Conclui que a descontinuidade das soluções, a fragmentação das estâncias de planejamento e a ausência de uma unidade metropolitana de fato impedem que se estabeleçam soluções mais eficazes e, especialmente, que garantam a qualificação do espaço construído, levando em conta não apenas a demanda metropolitana pelo serviço prestado, mas também os aspectos sociais, econômicos e ambientais. / This paper focuses on floods and the drainage infrastructure in São Paulo Metropolitan Area. Firstly, it presents its evolution pointing out how economical interests in generating hydroeletric energy as well as in releasing new urban land prevailed over the initial drainage guidelines. It was also observed that confining streams within roads constrained its capacity to a low level to cope with growing peakflows demanded by the expansion of urban area which has led to increasing impervious surface rate. This was compounded by a gradual, but continuous, occupation of floodplains. State actions to deal with the above issues were analysed. Several flood control programs were developed leading to the 1998 Alto Tietê Watershed Macrodrainage Plan proposals. Then, these are studied in the light of how São Paulo\'s urban plans approached this subject, comparing their proposals with works built so far and the consequent outcomes. It is concluded that three main factors prevented that effective solution could come true: discontinuity of approaches, fragmentation of urban planning boards and lack of an actual metropolitan authority. Indeed, concerning drainage system, before these are overcome, many people still will long for urban improvement regarding social, economical and environmental aspects.

[pt] A pesquisa analisou o material concreto permeável visando a sua aplicação como revestimento de pavimentos permeáveis para atenuação de cheias urbanas. Desta maneira, diversas misturas foram estudadas experimentalmente, objetivando determinar suas características hidráulicas e mecânicas. Com base nos resultados experimentais e no uso pretendido em calçadas, foi definida a mistura mais adequada. A fim de analisar o impacto desta solução no escoamento superficial, foi escolhida a bacia hidrográfica do Rio dos Macacos localizada no Bairro Jardim Botânico no Rio de Janeiro a qual apresenta problemas recorrentes de inundação. Em função das características da bacia e em critérios mecânicos e hidráulicos do pavimento permeável de concreto, foram escolhidas as áreas para a sua aplicação e opavimento foi dimensionado. A bacia estudada foi modelada com auxílio dosoftware Storm Water Management Model para os cenários antes e após a aplicação dos pavimentos permeáveis de concreto em calçadas. Por fim, foi estimado o custo direto da solução proposta. Os resultados do estudo experimental do concreto permeável demonstraram que o material possui permeabilidade e resistências mecânicas adequadas para aplicação em calçadas. Os resultados do modelo computacional, obtidos através da comparação de hidrogramas de cheia, evidenciaram satisfatório amortecimento. A análise de custo demonstrou que a solução é economicamente viável. / [en] New techniques of urban drainage have emerged in order to mitigate the negative effects of urbanization. Initially, in the United States in 1970 denominated Best Management Practices (BMPs) and then in United Kingdom in 1980 as Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS). The goal of these techniques is to reproduce the natural hydrological cycle, mitigating flood peaks and reducing diffuse pollution through infiltration, retention and transport devices such as green roofs, percolation trenches and pervious pavements. (Canholi, 2014). Unlike traditional pavements, pervious pavements allow the infiltration of rainwater on the surface. The infiltrated water is stored temporarily before use, infiltration into the soil, or downstream controlled discharge. According to Field et al (1982) and Mullaney and Lucke (2013), all types of pervious pavement share the same objectives, which are: to allow the infiltration of water on its surface; reduce the increase in the rate and volume of runoff; and improve degradation of water quality resulting from urbanization and land use change. Depending on the soil permeability, they still have the advantage of allowing the recharge of the aquifers.

The impact of climate change is increasingly important to the design of urban water infrastructure like stormwater systems, sewage systems and drinking water systems. Growing evidence indicates that the water sector will not only be affected by climate change, but it will reflect and deliver many of its impacts through floods, droughts, or extreme rainfall events. Water resources will change in both quantity and quality, and the infrastructure of stormwater and wastewater facilities may face greater risk of damage caused by storms, floods and droughts. The effect of the climate change will put more difficulties on operations to disrupted services and increased cost of the water and wastewater services. Governments, urban planners, and water managers should therefore re-examine development processes for municipal water and wastewater services and are adapt strategies to incorporate climate change into infrastructure design, capital investment projects, service provision planning, and operation and maintenance. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean temperature has increased by 0,7 °C during the last 100 years and, as a consequence, the hydrological cycle has intensified with, for example, more acute rainfall events. As urban drainage systems have been developed over a long period of time and design criteria are based upon climatic characteristics, these changes will affect the systems and the city accordingly. The overall objective of this thesis is to increase the knowledge about the climate change impacts on the stormwater system in Al Hillah city/Iraq. In more detail, the objective is to investigate how climate change could affect urban drainage systems specifically stormwater infrastructure, and also to suggest an adaptation plan for these changes using adaptation plans examples from international case studies. Three stochastic weather generators have been investigated in order to understand the climate and climate change in Al Hillah. The stochastic weather generators have been used in different kind of researches and studies; for example in hydrology, floods management, urban water design and analysis, and environmental protection. To make such studies efficient, it is important to have long data records (typically daily data) so the weather generator can generate synthetic daily weather data based on a sound statistical background. Some weather generators can produce the climate change scenarios for different kind of global climate models. They can be used also to produce synthetic data for a site that does not have enough data by using interpolation methods. To ensure that the weather generator is fitting the climate of the region properly, it should be tested against observed data, whether the synthetic data are sufficiently similar. At the same time, the accuracy of the weather generator is different from region to region and depends on the respective climate properties. Testing three weather generators GEM6, ClimGen and LARS-WG at eight climate stations in the region of Babylon governorate/Iraq, where Al Hillah is located, is one of the purposes of the first part of this study. LARS-WG uses a semi-parametric distribution (developed distribution), whereas GEM6 and ClimGen use a parametric distribution (less complicated distribution). Different statistical tests have been selected to compare observed and synthetic weather data for the same kind, for instance, the precipitation and temperature distribution (wet and dry season). The result shows that LARS-WG represents the observed data for Babylon region in a better way than ClimGen, whereas GEM6 seems to misfit the observed data. The synthetic data will be used for a first simulation of urban run-off during the wet season and the consequences of climate change for the design and re-design of the urban drainage system in Al Hillah. The stochastic weather generator LARS is then used to generate ensembles of future weather data using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) that best captured the full range of uncertainty. These Global Climate Models are used to construct future climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation over the region of Babylon Governorate in Iraq. The results show an increase in monthly temperatures and a decrease in the total amount of rain, yet the extreme rain events will be more intense in a shorter time. Changes in the amount, timing, and intensity of rain events can affect the amount of stormwater runoff that needs to be controlled. The climate change calculated projections may make existing stormwater-related flooding worse. Different districts in Al Hillah city may face more frequent stormwater floods than before due to the climate change projections. All the results that have been taken from the Global Climate Models are in a daily resolution format and in order to run the Storm Water Management Model it is important to have all data in a minimum of one hour resolution. In order to fulfill this condition a disaggregation model has been used. Some hourly precipitation data were required to calibrate the temporal disaggregation model; however none of the climate stations and rain gauges in the area of interest have hourly resolution data, so the hourly data from Baghdad airport station have been used for that calibration. The changes in the flood return periods have been seen in the projected climate change results, and a return period will only remain valid over time if environmental conditions do not change. This means that return periods used for planning purposes may need to be updated more often than previously, because values calculated based on the past 30 years of data may become unrepresentative within a relatively short time span. While return periods provide useful guidance for planning the effects of flooding and related impacts, they need to be used with care, and allowances have to be made for extremes that may occur more often than may be expected. In the study area with separated stormwater systems, the Storm Water Management Model simulation shows that the number of surface floods as well as of the floods increases in the future time periods 2050s and 2080s. Future precipitation will also increase both the flooding frequency and the duration of floods; therefore the need to handle future situations in urban drainage systems and to have a well-planned strategy to cope with future conditions is evident. The overall impacts on urban drainage systems due to the increase of intensive precipitation events need to be adapted. For that reason, recommendations for climate change adaptation in the city of Al Hillah have been suggested. This has been accomplished by merging information from the review of five study cases, selected based on the amount and quality of information available. The cities reviewed are Seattle (USA), Odense (Denmark), Tehran (Iran), and Khulna (Bangladesh). / Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Gestaltung der städtischen Wasserinfrastruktur wie Regenwasser, Kanalisation und Trinkwassersysteme werden immer wichtiger. Eine wachsende Anzahl von Belegen zeigt, dass der Wassersektor nicht nur durch den Klimawandel beeinflusst werden wird, aber er wird zu reflektieren und liefern viele seiner Auswirkungen durch Überschwemmungen, Dürren oder extreme Niederschlagsereignisse. Die Wasserressourcen werden sich in Quantität und Qualität verändern, und die Infrastruktur von Regen-und Abwasseranlagen kann einer größeren Gefahr von Schäden durch Stürme, Überschwemmungen und Dürren ausgesetzt sein. Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels werden zu mehr Schwierigkeiten im Betrieb gestörter Dienstleistungen und zu erhöhten Kosten für Wasser-und Abwasserdienstleistungen führen. Regierungen, Stadtplaner, und Wasser-Manager sollten daher die Entwicklungsprozesse für kommunale Wasser-und Abwasserdienstleistungen erneut überprüfen und Strategien anpassen, um den Klimawandel in Infrastruktur-Design, Investitionsprojekte, Planung von Leistungserbringung, sowie Betrieb und Wartung einzuarbeiten. Nach Angaben des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hat die globale Mitteltemperatur in den letzten 100 Jahren um 0,7 °C zugenommen, und in der Folge hat sich der hydrologische Zyklus intensiviert mit, zum Beispiel, stärkeren Niederschlagsereignisse. Da die städtischen Entwässerungssysteme über einen langen Zeitraum entwickelt wurden und Design-Kriterien auf klimatischen Eigenschaften beruhen, werden diese Veränderungen die Systeme und die Stadt entsprechend beeinflussen. Das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, das Wissen über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Regenwasser-System in der Stadt Hilla / Irak zu bereichern. Im Detail ist das Ziel, zu untersuchen, wie der Klimawandel die Siedlungsentwässerung und insbesondere die Regenwasser-Infrastruktur betreffen könnte. Desweiteren soll ein Anpassungsplan für diese Änderungen auf der Grundlage von beispielhaften Anpassungsplänen aus internationalen Fallstudienvorgeschlagen werden. Drei stochastische Wettergeneratoren wurden untersucht, um das Klima und den Klimawandel in Hilla zu verstehen. Stochastische Wettergeneratoren wurden in verschiedenen Untersuchungen und Studien zum Beispiel in der Hydrologie sowie im Hochwasser-Management, Siedlungswasser-Design- und Analyse, und Umweltschutz eingesetzt. Damit solche Studien effizient sind, ist es wichtig, lange Datensätze (in der Regel Tageswerte) haben, so dass der Wettergenerator synthetische tägliche Wetterdaten erzeugen kann, dieauf einem soliden statistischen Hintergrund basieren. Einige Wettergeneratoren können Klimaszenarien für verschiedene Arten von globalen Klimamodellen erzeugen. Sie können unter Verwendung von Interpolationsverfahren auch synthetische Daten für einen Standort generieren, für den nicht genügend Daten vorliegen. Um sicherzustellen, dass der Wettergenerator dem Klima der Region optimal entspricht, sollte gegen die beobachteten Daten geprüft werden, ob die synthetischen Daten ausreichend ähnlich sind. Gleichzeitig unterscheidet sich die Genauigkeit des Wettergenerator von Region zu Region und abhängig von den jeweiligen Klimaeigenschaften. Der Zweck des ersten Teils dieser Studie ist es daher, drei Wettergeneratoren, namentlich GEM6, ClimGen und LARS-WG, an acht Klimastationen in der Region des Gouvernements Babylon / Irak zu testen. LARS-WG verwendet eine semi-parametrische Verteilung (entwickelte Verteilung), wohingegen GEM6 und ClimGen eine parametrische Verteilung (weniger komplizierte Verteilung) verwenden. Verschiedene statistische Tests wurden ausgewählt, um die beobachteten und synthetischen Wetterdaten für identische Parameter zu vergleichen, zum Beispiel die Niederschlags- und Temperaturverteilung (Nass-und Trockenzeit). Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass LARS-WG die beobachteten Daten für die Region Babylon akkurater abzeichnet, als ClimGen, wobei GEM6 die beobachteten Daten zu verfehlen scheint. Die synthetischen Daten werden für eine erste Simulation des städtischen Run-offs in der Regenzeit sowie der Folgen des Klimawandels für das Design und Re-Design des städtischen Entwässerungssystems in Hilla verwendet. Der stochastische Wettergenerator LARS wird dann verwendet, um Gruppen zukünftiger Wetterdaten unter Verwendung von fünf globalen Klimamodellen (GCM), die das gesamte Spektrum der Unsicherheit am besten abdecken, zu generieren. Diese globalen Klimamodelle werden verwendet, um zukünftige Klimaszenarien der Temperatur und des Niederschlags für die Region Babylon zu konstruieren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, eine Steigerung der monatlichen Temperaturen und eine Abnahme der Gesamtmenge der Regen, wobei es jedoch extremere Regenereignissen mit höherer Intensivität in kürzerer Zeit geben wird. Veränderungen der Höhe, des Zeitpunkt und der Intensität der Regenereignisse können die Menge des Abflusses von Regenwasser, die kontrolliert werden muss, beeinflussen. Die Klimawandel-Prognosen können bestehende regenwasserbedingte Überschwemmungen verschlimmern. Verschiedene Bezirke in Hilla können stärker von Regenfluten betroffen werden als bisher aufgrund der Prognosen. Alle Ergebnisse, die von den globalen Klimamodellen übernommen wurden, sind in täglicher Auflösung und um das Regenwasser-Management-Modell anzuwenden, ist es wichtig, dass alle Daten in einer Mindestauflösung von einer Stunde vorliegen. Zur Erfüllung dieser Bedingung wurde ein eine Aufschlüsselungs-Modell verwendet. Einige Stunden-Niederschlagsdaten waren erforderlich, um das zeitliche Aufschlüsselungs-Modell zu kalibrieren. Da weder die Klimastationen noch die Regen-Messgeräte im Interessenbereich über stundenauflösende Daten verfügt, wurden die Stundendaten von Flughäfen in Bagdad verwendet. Die Veränderungen in den Hochwasserrückkehrperioden sind in den projizierten Ergebnissen des Klimawandels ersichtlich, und eine Rückkehrperiode wird nur dann über Zeit gültig bleiben, wenn sich die Umweltbedingungen nicht ändern. Dies bedeutet, dass Wiederkehrperioden, die für Planungszwecke verwendet werden, öfter als bisher aktualisiert werden müssen, da die auf Grundlage von Daten der letzten 30 Jahre berechneten Werte innerhalb einer relativ kurzen Zeitspanneunrepräsentativ werden können. Während Wiederkehrperioden bieten nützliche Hinweise für die Planung die Effekte von Überschwemmungen und die damit verbundenen Auswirkungen, müssen aber mit Vorsicht verwendet werden, und Extreme, die öfter eintreten könnten als erwartet, sollten berücksichtigt werden. Im Studienbereich mit getrennten Regenwassersystemen zeigt die Simulation des Regenwasser-Management-Modells, dass sich die Anzahl der Oberflächenhochwasser sowie der Überschwemmungen im Zeitraum 2050e-2080 erhöhen wird. Zukünftige Niederschläge werdensowohl die Hochwasser-Frequenz als auch die Dauer von Überschwemmungen erhöhen. Daher ist die Notwendigkeit offensichtlich, zukünftige Situationen in städtischen Entwässerungssystemen zu berücksichtigen und eine gut geplante Strategie zu haben, um zukünftige Bedingungen zu bewältigen. Die gesamten Auswirkungen auf die Siedlungsentwässerungssyteme aufgrund der Zunahme von intensiven Niederschlagsereignissen müssen angepasst werden. Aus diesem Grund wurden Empfehlungen für die Anpassung an den Klimawandel in der Stadt Hilla vorgeschlagen. Diese wurden durch die Zusammenführung von Informationen aus der Prüfung von fünf Fallstudien, ausgewählt aufgrund der Menge und Qualität der verfügbaren Informationen, erarbeitet,. Die bewerteten Städte sind Seattle (USA), Odense (Dänemark), Teheran (Iran), und Khulna (Bangladesch).

The impact of climate change is increasingly important to the design of urban water infrastructure like stormwater systems, sewage systems and drinking water systems. Growing evidence indicates that the water sector will not only be affected by climate change, but it will reflect and deliver many of its impacts through floods, droughts, or extreme rainfall events. Water resources will change in both quantity and quality, and the infrastructure of stormwater and wastewater facilities may face greater risk of damage caused by storms, floods and droughts. The effect of the climate change will put more difficulties on operations to disrupted services and increased cost of the water and wastewater services. Governments, urban planners, and water managers should therefore re-examine development processes for municipal water and wastewater services and are adapt strategies to incorporate climate change into infrastructure design, capital investment projects, service provision planning, and operation and maintenance. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean temperature has increased by 0,7 °C during the last 100 years and, as a consequence, the hydrological cycle has intensified with, for example, more acute rainfall events. As urban drainage systems have been developed over a long period of time and design criteria are based upon climatic characteristics, these changes will affect the systems and the city accordingly. The overall objective of this thesis is to increase the knowledge about the climate change impacts on the stormwater system in Al Hillah city/Iraq. In more detail, the objective is to investigate how climate change could affect urban drainage systems specifically stormwater infrastructure, and also to suggest an adaptation plan for these changes using adaptation plans examples from international case studies. Three stochastic weather generators have been investigated in order to understand the climate and climate change in Al Hillah. The stochastic weather generators have been used in different kind of researches and studies; for example in hydrology, floods management, urban water design and analysis, and environmental protection. To make such studies efficient, it is important to have long data records (typically daily data) so the weather generator can generate synthetic daily weather data based on a sound statistical background. Some weather generators can produce the climate change scenarios for different kind of global climate models. They can be used also to produce synthetic data for a site that does not have enough data by using interpolation methods. To ensure that the weather generator is fitting the climate of the region properly, it should be tested against observed data, whether the synthetic data are sufficiently similar. At the same time, the accuracy of the weather generator is different from region to region and depends on the respective climate properties. Testing three weather generators GEM6, ClimGen and LARS-WG at eight climate stations in the region of Babylon governorate/Iraq, where Al Hillah is located, is one of the purposes of the first part of this study. LARS-WG uses a semi-parametric distribution (developed distribution), whereas GEM6 and ClimGen use a parametric distribution (less complicated distribution). Different statistical tests have been selected to compare observed and synthetic weather data for the same kind, for instance, the precipitation and temperature distribution (wet and dry season). The result shows that LARS-WG represents the observed data for Babylon region in a better way than ClimGen, whereas GEM6 seems to misfit the observed data. The synthetic data will be used for a first simulation of urban run-off during the wet season and the consequences of climate change for the design and re-design of the urban drainage system in Al Hillah. The stochastic weather generator LARS is then used to generate ensembles of future weather data using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) that best captured the full range of uncertainty. These Global Climate Models are used to construct future climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation over the region of Babylon Governorate in Iraq. The results show an increase in monthly temperatures and a decrease in the total amount of rain, yet the extreme rain events will be more intense in a shorter time. Changes in the amount, timing, and intensity of rain events can affect the amount of stormwater runoff that needs to be controlled. The climate change calculated projections may make existing stormwater-related flooding worse. Different districts in Al Hillah city may face more frequent stormwater floods than before due to the climate change projections. All the results that have been taken from the Global Climate Models are in a daily resolution format and in order to run the Storm Water Management Model it is important to have all data in a minimum of one hour resolution. In order to fulfill this condition a disaggregation model has been used. Some hourly precipitation data were required to calibrate the temporal disaggregation model; however none of the climate stations and rain gauges in the area of interest have hourly resolution data, so the hourly data from Baghdad airport station have been used for that calibration. The changes in the flood return periods have been seen in the projected climate change results, and a return period will only remain valid over time if environmental conditions do not change. This means that return periods used for planning purposes may need to be updated more often than previously, because values calculated based on the past 30 years of data may become unrepresentative within a relatively short time span. While return periods provide useful guidance for planning the effects of flooding and related impacts, they need to be used with care, and allowances have to be made for extremes that may occur more often than may be expected. In the study area with separated stormwater systems, the Storm Water Management Model simulation shows that the number of surface floods as well as of the floods increases in the future time periods 2050s and 2080s. Future precipitation will also increase both the flooding frequency and the duration of floods; therefore the need to handle future situations in urban drainage systems and to have a well-planned strategy to cope with future conditions is evident. The overall impacts on urban drainage systems due to the increase of intensive precipitation events need to be adapted. For that reason, recommendations for climate change adaptation in the city of Al Hillah have been suggested. This has been accomplished by merging information from the review of five study cases, selected based on the amount and quality of information available. The cities reviewed are Seattle (USA), Odense (Denmark), Tehran (Iran), and Khulna (Bangladesh).:Preface Acknowledgment Abstract Kurzfassung Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Listing List of Abbreviation Introduction 1.1. Background of The Research 1.2. The Climate Change Challenge 1.3. Urban Water Systems and Climate Change 1.4. Climate Change and Urban Drainage Adaptation Plan 1.5. Objectives of the Research 1.6. Research Problems and Hypothesis 1.7. Dissertation Structure 1.8. Delimitations Climate History and Climate Change Projections in Al Hillah City Chapter One: State of the Art on Climate Change 2.1.1. The Earth’s Climate System 2.1.2. Climate Change 2.1.3. Emission Scenarios 2.1.4. Global Climate Change 2.1.5. Climate Models 2.1.6. Downscaling Chapter Two: Topography and Climate of the Study Area 2.2.1. Location 2.2.2. Topography 2.2.3. Climate Chapter Three: Climate Change - Methodology and Data 2.3.1. Methodology 2.3.1.1. Stochastic Weather Generators 2.3.1.2. Description of Generators Used in the Comparison 2.3.1.3. Statistical Analysis Comparison Test 2.3.2. Data 2.3.2.1. Required data for modelling 2.3.2.2. Historical daily data required for the weather generators 2.3.2.3. Minimum requirements 2.3.2.4. Data Availability Chapter Four: Results Analysis and Evaluation of Climate Change 2.4.1. Weather Generators Comparison Test results 2.4.1.1.The p-value test Temperature Comparison results Precipitation Comparison Results 2.4.2. LARS Weather Generator Future Scenario 2.4.2.1.1. Climate Change Scenarios for the region of Babylon governorate Storm Water System and Urban Flooding in Al Hillah City Chapter one: Urban Water Modelling 3.1.1. General Overview and Background 3.1.1.1. Storm water systems 3.1.2. Urban Runoff Models 3.1.3. An Overview of Runoff Estimation Methods 3.1.3.1. Computer Modelling in Urban Drainage 3.1.3.2.Statistical Rational Method (SRM) 3.1.4. Models Based on Statistical Rational Method 3.1.5. Urban Rainfall-Runoff Methods 3.1.6. Accuracy Level in Urban Catchment Models Chapter Two: Urban Water System in Al Hillah City and Data Requirement for Modelling 3.2.1. History 3.2.2. Current Situation 3.2.2.1. Urban water system Iraq 3.2.2.2. Urban Water description in Babylon governorate 3.2.2.3. Drinking water network 3.2.2.4. Sewerage infrastructure 3.2.3. Required data for modelling Chapter Three: Methodology to Disaggregate Daily Rain Data and Model Storm Water Runoff 3.3.1. Temporal Disaggregation (hourly from daily) 3.3.1.1. Background of Disaggregation 3.3.1.2. Disaggregation techniques 3.3.1.3. DiMoN Disaggregation Tool 3.3.1.4. Input Data 3.3.1.5. Methods Formerly Used 3.3.2. EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) 3.3.2.1. Verification and Calibration 3.3.2.2. Stormwater Management Model PCSWMM 3.3.2.3. Complete support for all USEPA SWMM5 engine capabilities Chapter Four: Urban Flooding Results 3.4.1. Disaggregation of the daily rain data to hourly data 3.4.1.1.The 1 hour events properties 3.4.1.2. Estimating the rain events in each climate change scenario 3.4.1.3. Past, Current and future return periods 3.4.2. Storm Water Management Model PCSWMM Calibration 3.4.3.Return periods and Urban Floods 3.4.3.1.Network simulation 3.4.3.2.Properties with previous flooding problems 3.4.3.3.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-2, 5 and 10 years return period 3.4.3.4.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-25 years return period 3.4.3.5.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-50 years return period 3.4.3.6. Storm water system simulation under 1 hour – 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years return period 3.4.3.7.Total Flooding Adaptation Plan for Al Hillah City Chapter One: International Case Studies 4.1.1. Historical precipitation analysis 4.1.2. Current and projected future climate change, impacts and adaptation plan for each selected city 4.1.2.1. Seattle 4.1.2.2. Odense 4.1.2.3. Tehran 4.1.2.4. Khulna 4.1.2.5. Melbourne 4.1.3. Drainage System of the Studied Cities 4.1.3.1. Drainage System in Seattle 4.1.3.2. Drainage System in Odense 4.1.3.3. Drainage System in Tehran 4.1.3.4. Drainage System in Khulna 4.1.3.5. Drainage System in Melbourne Chapter Two: Adaptation Plan for Al Hillah City 4.2.1. Conclusions from Adaptation Options Analysed 4.2.2. Suggestions for Al Hillah City 4.2.3. Adaptation Actions Overall Conclusion Bibliography / Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Gestaltung der städtischen Wasserinfrastruktur wie Regenwasser, Kanalisation und Trinkwassersysteme werden immer wichtiger. Eine wachsende Anzahl von Belegen zeigt, dass der Wassersektor nicht nur durch den Klimawandel beeinflusst werden wird, aber er wird zu reflektieren und liefern viele seiner Auswirkungen durch Überschwemmungen, Dürren oder extreme Niederschlagsereignisse. Die Wasserressourcen werden sich in Quantität und Qualität verändern, und die Infrastruktur von Regen-und Abwasseranlagen kann einer größeren Gefahr von Schäden durch Stürme, Überschwemmungen und Dürren ausgesetzt sein. Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels werden zu mehr Schwierigkeiten im Betrieb gestörter Dienstleistungen und zu erhöhten Kosten für Wasser-und Abwasserdienstleistungen führen. Regierungen, Stadtplaner, und Wasser-Manager sollten daher die Entwicklungsprozesse für kommunale Wasser-und Abwasserdienstleistungen erneut überprüfen und Strategien anpassen, um den Klimawandel in Infrastruktur-Design, Investitionsprojekte, Planung von Leistungserbringung, sowie Betrieb und Wartung einzuarbeiten. Nach Angaben des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hat die globale Mitteltemperatur in den letzten 100 Jahren um 0,7 °C zugenommen, und in der Folge hat sich der hydrologische Zyklus intensiviert mit, zum Beispiel, stärkeren Niederschlagsereignisse. Da die städtischen Entwässerungssysteme über einen langen Zeitraum entwickelt wurden und Design-Kriterien auf klimatischen Eigenschaften beruhen, werden diese Veränderungen die Systeme und die Stadt entsprechend beeinflussen. Das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, das Wissen über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Regenwasser-System in der Stadt Hilla / Irak zu bereichern. Im Detail ist das Ziel, zu untersuchen, wie der Klimawandel die Siedlungsentwässerung und insbesondere die Regenwasser-Infrastruktur betreffen könnte. Desweiteren soll ein Anpassungsplan für diese Änderungen auf der Grundlage von beispielhaften Anpassungsplänen aus internationalen Fallstudienvorgeschlagen werden. Drei stochastische Wettergeneratoren wurden untersucht, um das Klima und den Klimawandel in Hilla zu verstehen. Stochastische Wettergeneratoren wurden in verschiedenen Untersuchungen und Studien zum Beispiel in der Hydrologie sowie im Hochwasser-Management, Siedlungswasser-Design- und Analyse, und Umweltschutz eingesetzt. Damit solche Studien effizient sind, ist es wichtig, lange Datensätze (in der Regel Tageswerte) haben, so dass der Wettergenerator synthetische tägliche Wetterdaten erzeugen kann, dieauf einem soliden statistischen Hintergrund basieren. Einige Wettergeneratoren können Klimaszenarien für verschiedene Arten von globalen Klimamodellen erzeugen. Sie können unter Verwendung von Interpolationsverfahren auch synthetische Daten für einen Standort generieren, für den nicht genügend Daten vorliegen. Um sicherzustellen, dass der Wettergenerator dem Klima der Region optimal entspricht, sollte gegen die beobachteten Daten geprüft werden, ob die synthetischen Daten ausreichend ähnlich sind. Gleichzeitig unterscheidet sich die Genauigkeit des Wettergenerator von Region zu Region und abhängig von den jeweiligen Klimaeigenschaften. Der Zweck des ersten Teils dieser Studie ist es daher, drei Wettergeneratoren, namentlich GEM6, ClimGen und LARS-WG, an acht Klimastationen in der Region des Gouvernements Babylon / Irak zu testen. LARS-WG verwendet eine semi-parametrische Verteilung (entwickelte Verteilung), wohingegen GEM6 und ClimGen eine parametrische Verteilung (weniger komplizierte Verteilung) verwenden. Verschiedene statistische Tests wurden ausgewählt, um die beobachteten und synthetischen Wetterdaten für identische Parameter zu vergleichen, zum Beispiel die Niederschlags- und Temperaturverteilung (Nass-und Trockenzeit). Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass LARS-WG die beobachteten Daten für die Region Babylon akkurater abzeichnet, als ClimGen, wobei GEM6 die beobachteten Daten zu verfehlen scheint. Die synthetischen Daten werden für eine erste Simulation des städtischen Run-offs in der Regenzeit sowie der Folgen des Klimawandels für das Design und Re-Design des städtischen Entwässerungssystems in Hilla verwendet. Der stochastische Wettergenerator LARS wird dann verwendet, um Gruppen zukünftiger Wetterdaten unter Verwendung von fünf globalen Klimamodellen (GCM), die das gesamte Spektrum der Unsicherheit am besten abdecken, zu generieren. Diese globalen Klimamodelle werden verwendet, um zukünftige Klimaszenarien der Temperatur und des Niederschlags für die Region Babylon zu konstruieren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, eine Steigerung der monatlichen Temperaturen und eine Abnahme der Gesamtmenge der Regen, wobei es jedoch extremere Regenereignissen mit höherer Intensivität in kürzerer Zeit geben wird. Veränderungen der Höhe, des Zeitpunkt und der Intensität der Regenereignisse können die Menge des Abflusses von Regenwasser, die kontrolliert werden muss, beeinflussen. Die Klimawandel-Prognosen können bestehende regenwasserbedingte Überschwemmungen verschlimmern. Verschiedene Bezirke in Hilla können stärker von Regenfluten betroffen werden als bisher aufgrund der Prognosen. Alle Ergebnisse, die von den globalen Klimamodellen übernommen wurden, sind in täglicher Auflösung und um das Regenwasser-Management-Modell anzuwenden, ist es wichtig, dass alle Daten in einer Mindestauflösung von einer Stunde vorliegen. Zur Erfüllung dieser Bedingung wurde ein eine Aufschlüsselungs-Modell verwendet. Einige Stunden-Niederschlagsdaten waren erforderlich, um das zeitliche Aufschlüsselungs-Modell zu kalibrieren. Da weder die Klimastationen noch die Regen-Messgeräte im Interessenbereich über stundenauflösende Daten verfügt, wurden die Stundendaten von Flughäfen in Bagdad verwendet. Die Veränderungen in den Hochwasserrückkehrperioden sind in den projizierten Ergebnissen des Klimawandels ersichtlich, und eine Rückkehrperiode wird nur dann über Zeit gültig bleiben, wenn sich die Umweltbedingungen nicht ändern. Dies bedeutet, dass Wiederkehrperioden, die für Planungszwecke verwendet werden, öfter als bisher aktualisiert werden müssen, da die auf Grundlage von Daten der letzten 30 Jahre berechneten Werte innerhalb einer relativ kurzen Zeitspanneunrepräsentativ werden können. Während Wiederkehrperioden bieten nützliche Hinweise für die Planung die Effekte von Überschwemmungen und die damit verbundenen Auswirkungen, müssen aber mit Vorsicht verwendet werden, und Extreme, die öfter eintreten könnten als erwartet, sollten berücksichtigt werden. Im Studienbereich mit getrennten Regenwassersystemen zeigt die Simulation des Regenwasser-Management-Modells, dass sich die Anzahl der Oberflächenhochwasser sowie der Überschwemmungen im Zeitraum 2050e-2080 erhöhen wird. Zukünftige Niederschläge werdensowohl die Hochwasser-Frequenz als auch die Dauer von Überschwemmungen erhöhen. Daher ist die Notwendigkeit offensichtlich, zukünftige Situationen in städtischen Entwässerungssystemen zu berücksichtigen und eine gut geplante Strategie zu haben, um zukünftige Bedingungen zu bewältigen. Die gesamten Auswirkungen auf die Siedlungsentwässerungssyteme aufgrund der Zunahme von intensiven Niederschlagsereignissen müssen angepasst werden. Aus diesem Grund wurden Empfehlungen für die Anpassung an den Klimawandel in der Stadt Hilla vorgeschlagen. Diese wurden durch die Zusammenführung von Informationen aus der Prüfung von fünf Fallstudien, ausgewählt aufgrund der Menge und Qualität der verfügbaren Informationen, erarbeitet,. Die bewerteten Städte sind Seattle (USA), Odense (Dänemark), Teheran (Iran), und Khulna (Bangladesch).:Preface Acknowledgment Abstract Kurzfassung Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Listing List of Abbreviation Introduction 1.1. Background of The Research 1.2. The Climate Change Challenge 1.3. Urban Water Systems and Climate Change 1.4. Climate Change and Urban Drainage Adaptation Plan 1.5. Objectives of the Research 1.6. Research Problems and Hypothesis 1.7. Dissertation Structure 1.8. Delimitations Climate History and Climate Change Projections in Al Hillah City Chapter One: State of the Art on Climate Change 2.1.1. The Earth’s Climate System 2.1.2. Climate Change 2.1.3. Emission Scenarios 2.1.4. Global Climate Change 2.1.5. Climate Models 2.1.6. Downscaling Chapter Two: Topography and Climate of the Study Area 2.2.1. Location 2.2.2. Topography 2.2.3. Climate Chapter Three: Climate Change - Methodology and Data 2.3.1. Methodology 2.3.1.1. Stochastic Weather Generators 2.3.1.2. Description of Generators Used in the Comparison 2.3.1.3. Statistical Analysis Comparison Test 2.3.2. Data 2.3.2.1. Required data for modelling 2.3.2.2. Historical daily data required for the weather generators 2.3.2.3. Minimum requirements 2.3.2.4. Data Availability Chapter Four: Results Analysis and Evaluation of Climate Change 2.4.1. Weather Generators Comparison Test results 2.4.1.1.The p-value test Temperature Comparison results Precipitation Comparison Results 2.4.2. LARS Weather Generator Future Scenario 2.4.2.1.1. Climate Change Scenarios for the region of Babylon governorate Storm Water System and Urban Flooding in Al Hillah City Chapter one: Urban Water Modelling 3.1.1. General Overview and Background 3.1.1.1. Storm water systems 3.1.2. Urban Runoff Models 3.1.3. An Overview of Runoff Estimation Methods 3.1.3.1. Computer Modelling in Urban Drainage 3.1.3.2.Statistical Rational Method (SRM) 3.1.4. Models Based on Statistical Rational Method 3.1.5. Urban Rainfall-Runoff Methods 3.1.6. Accuracy Level in Urban Catchment Models Chapter Two: Urban Water System in Al Hillah City and Data Requirement for Modelling 3.2.1. History 3.2.2. Current Situation 3.2.2.1. Urban water system Iraq 3.2.2.2. Urban Water description in Babylon governorate 3.2.2.3. Drinking water network 3.2.2.4. Sewerage infrastructure 3.2.3. Required data for modelling Chapter Three: Methodology to Disaggregate Daily Rain Data and Model Storm Water Runoff 3.3.1. Temporal Disaggregation (hourly from daily) 3.3.1.1. Background of Disaggregation 3.3.1.2. Disaggregation techniques 3.3.1.3. DiMoN Disaggregation Tool 3.3.1.4. Input Data 3.3.1.5. Methods Formerly Used 3.3.2. EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) 3.3.2.1. Verification and Calibration 3.3.2.2. Stormwater Management Model PCSWMM 3.3.2.3. Complete support for all USEPA SWMM5 engine capabilities Chapter Four: Urban Flooding Results 3.4.1. Disaggregation of the daily rain data to hourly data 3.4.1.1.The 1 hour events properties 3.4.1.2. Estimating the rain events in each climate change scenario 3.4.1.3. Past, Current and future return periods 3.4.2. Storm Water Management Model PCSWMM Calibration 3.4.3.Return periods and Urban Floods 3.4.3.1.Network simulation 3.4.3.2.Properties with previous flooding problems 3.4.3.3.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-2, 5 and 10 years return period 3.4.3.4.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-25 years return period 3.4.3.5.Storm water system simulation under 1 hour-50 years return period 3.4.3.6. Storm water system simulation under 1 hour – 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years return period 3.4.3.7.Total Flooding Adaptation Plan for Al Hillah City Chapter One: International Case Studies 4.1.1. Historical precipitation analysis 4.1.2. Current and projected future climate change, impacts and adaptation plan for each selected city 4.1.2.1. Seattle 4.1.2.2. Odense 4.1.2.3. Tehran 4.1.2.4. Khulna 4.1.2.5. Melbourne 4.1.3. Drainage System of the Studied Cities 4.1.3.1. Drainage System in Seattle 4.1.3.2. Drainage System in Odense 4.1.3.3. Drainage System in Tehran 4.1.3.4. Drainage System in Khulna 4.1.3.5. Drainage System in Melbourne Chapter Two: Adaptation Plan for Al Hillah City 4.2.1. Conclusions from Adaptation Options Analysed 4.2.2. Suggestions for Al Hillah City 4.2.3. Adaptation Actions Overall Conclusion Bibliography