Ingeniero Civil de Minas / El análisis y modelación de precios de metales es esencial para tomar y ejecutar decisiones de inversión en todos los campos de la actividad minera: exploración, evaluación de recursos, planificación minera, proyectos de expansión, entre otros. Los modelos predictivos de precios han adquirido relevancia con la irrupción de la computación y los métodos matemáticos. Ellos han evolucionado al punto que ha sido posible pronosticar escenarios futuros del precio de los commodities metálicos. Sin embargo, la predicción siempre tiene asociada incertidumbre. Por otra parte, el dinamismo del mercado global hace difícil establecer supuestos que sean prolongados en el tiempo, lo que obliga a los economistas de minerales a reevaluar sus modelos constantemente. Este trabajo utiliza la herramienta PVAR para estudiar el dinamismo del precio de seis metales que se tranzan en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres: aluminio, cobre, estaño, plomo, níquel y cinc. Esto, con el fin de analizar las interrelaciones entre el precio de metales y un conjunto de variables macroeconómicas que inciden sobre ellos: consumo y producción de metales, precios del petróleo, tipo de cambio del dólar, S&P500 y PIB. También se estudia las relaciones de causalidad existentes entre todas las variables mencionadas. Se consideran diferentes combinaciones de las variables abordadas en tres casos, donde el consumo y el precio de metales siempre están presentes. El primer caso incorpora la producción de metales, el segundo estudia la combinación del tipo de cambio del dólar y el precio del petróleo. El último analiza la combinación del índice S&P500 y el precio del petróleo. En cada caso se estudia el consumo en dos partes: consumo de China y consumo mundial. De los resultados, se determina que un alza del consumo de China es comparable a un aumento del consumo mundial. Se logra explicar la cantidad de tiempo que perdura el alza del precio frentes a los aumentos del consumo. En el modelo que añade la producción, se logra satisfactoriamente cuantificar la duración de la baja de precios por un aumento de la producción. Del mismo modo, se encuentran relaciones interesantes entre el precio de metales, precio del petróleo, consumos y producción de metales.

L’hépatite est une inflammation du foie pouvant être causée par divers agents. Elle reste un problème de santé publique majeur dans le monde, compte tenu du coût de plus en plus élevé des médicaments. Une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes d’action des plantes médicinales apparaît intéressante pour développer des traitements alternatifs. L’objectif de cette étude était donc d’évaluer les propriétés hépatoprotectrice, puis d’identifier les mécanismes qui pourraient soutendre l’action de Neoboutonia velutina (NV), une plante médicinale camerounaise.Les extraits aqueux (NVH) et éthanolique (NVE) de NV ont été préparés, se référant à la préparation traditionnelle. Les analyses phytochimique et toxicologique ont été effectuées et le potentiel antioxydant évalué in vitro et in vivo. De même, l’effet antiinflammatoire des deux extraits a été évalué sur les cellules et chez la souris. L’hépatite aiguë a été induite par le tétrachlorure de carbone (CCl4) ou la Concanavalin A (ConA), chez la souris qui recevait ou non différentes doses d’extrait par gavage. De plus, l’extrait aqueux a été fractionné pour l’identification des composés bioactifs.NVE contiendrait ainsi des stérols et polyterpènes. Cet extrait a présenté une capacité anti-radicalaire meilleure que celle de NVH. Mais, il s’est avéré plus toxique que NVH; ce qui a limité nos investigations sur cet extrait. En revanche, NVH contiendrait des saponines et glycosides et a révélé une très faible toxicité. De plus, un remarquable effet protecteur de NVH a été noté contre les dommages causés par le CCl4. Cet effet protecteur s’est traduit par une diminution dose-dépendante et significative des transaminases sériques et une importante diminution des lésions hépatiques. Ceci, associé à la capacité antiinflammatoire in vitro et in vivo. En outre, un composé anti-radicalaire a été isolé de NVH. Par ailleurs, dans le modèle ConA, NVH n’a présenté qu’un faible effet protecteur. Ce qui suggère une efficacité sélective de cet extrait.En conclusion, nous avons démontré dans notre étude, un effet hépatoprotecteur de NV à travers l’extrait aqueux qui a présenté un effet hépatoprotecteur modèle dépendant. Cet effet, semble être médié au moins, par la capacité anti-radicalaire de la plante. Nos résultats présentent ainsi les premiers arguments en faveur de l’utilisation traditionnelle de NV contre les hépatites. Des études plus poussées permettraient de mieux comprendre les mécanismes d’action de cette plante et d’exploiter au mieux son potentiel thérapeutique, sans risque de toxicité. Ainsi, bien que présentant une toxicité, l’extrait éthanolique qui mime la préparation traditionnelle, a révélé un potentiel thérapeutique qui pourrait être très intéressant à très faibles doses. / Hepatitis is a liver inflammation caused by different agents. It remains a public health problem worldwide since current treatment methods are increasingly expensive. Medicinal plants are known as an important source of new molecules. A better knowledge of these natural resources appears interesting to develop alternative treatments. The aim of this study was then to evaluate the hepatoprotective effect of Neoboutonia velutina (NV), a Cameroonian medicinal plant, and decipher underlying mechanisms.NV aqueous (NVH) and ethanol (NVE) extracts have been prepared referring to the traditional use. Phytochemical and toxicological analyses were performed in vitro and in vivo. Similarly, extracts antioxidant and antiinflammatory potential was assessed on cells (or not) and in mice. Acute hepatitis was induced with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) or Concanavalin A (ConA), in mice receiving or not different extracts doses by gavage. NVH fractionation was done to identify active compounds.NVE was containing sterols and polyterpens. Though it displayed a high radical scavenging capacity compared to NVH, it appeared more toxic. Thus, for assays, priority was given to NVH, containing saponins and glycosides. NVH showed a radical scavenging capacity with a very low toxicity. It remarkably protected mice from CCl4-induced liver injuries. As shown by significant dose dependent transaminases serum level decrease and liver injury important limitation. These, associated with NVH anti-inflammatory capacity. Furthermore, NVH fractionation led to a radical scavenging compound isolation. Otherwise, in ConA model NVH displayed weak effects. These findings suggested a selective NVH efficacy. In summary, we showed that NVH presents a model dependent hepatoprotective effect that may be mediated at least, through its radical scavenging property. Our findings are in line with Neoboutonia velutina traditional use and provide the first scientific arguments in favor of the traditional use of NV against hepatitis. Additional studies are needed to better understand NV mechanisms of action and then ensured its safe use. NVE mimics the traditional preparation. Even though that extract appeared toxic, it exhibited a therapeutic potential that could be interesting at very low doses.

To determine the optimum nitrogen application level required for the production of good quality ‘Drumhead’ cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) transplants, a glasshouse experiment was conducted. Depending on water requirements, transplants were fertigated every two days (for the first four weeks) and every day (for the last two weeks) by floating trays in plastic tubs containing nutrient solution at 0, 30, 60, 90 and 120 mg•L-1 N until field capacity was reached. Increasing nitrogen from 0 to 120 mg•L-1 increased shoot and root mass of cabbage transplants with more dry mass being partitioned to the shoot than to the roots. Nitrogen at 120 mg•L-1 N produced greatest fresh and dry shoot mass, plant height, leaf area, leaf tissue nitrogen, net assimilation rate, relative growth rate and leaf mass ratio. Nitrogen at 90 mg•L-1 improved dry root mass, pulling success, specific leaf area and leaf area ratio. Greatest values of root: shoot ratio and root mass ratio were obtained at 0 mg•L-1 N. Nitrogen at 90 mg•L-1 was best as it produced transplants with more vigorous root growth which pulled out easily from the seedling trays. To determine the best combination of spacing and nitrogen top-dressing for improved cabbage production under local conditions, a field experiment was conducted. Cabbage ‘Copenhagen Market’ transplants were spaced at 30 x 50 cm, 40 x 50 cm or 50 x 50 cm and fertilized with nitrogen as top-dressing at 50, 100 or 150 kg•ha-1 N applied in two splits (fourth and eighth week after transplanting). There were no interactions between spacing and nitrogen top-dressing for all measured variables. Nitrogen and spacing did not influence dry matter production and leaf tissue nitrogen. Furthermore, spacing did not affect core height and yield (per unit area) of trimmed cabbage heads. Nitrogen at 100 kg•ha-1 produced the greatest head mass and yield for untrimmed cabbage heads. The 30 x 50 cm spacing produced the highest yield of untrimmed heads while 50 x 50 cm spacing produced heavier heads. For trimmed heads, 100 kg•ha-1 N again produced the greatest head mass, head diameter, head height, core diameter and yield. Spacing did not affect the yield for trimmed heads. However, 40 x 50 cm spacing improved head diameter, head height and head mass while core diameter was larger with 50 x 50 cm spacing. The split application of 100 kg•ha-1 N as top-dressing was best for head mass and yield (per unit area) for trimmed and untrimmed heads. Choice of spacing would depend on whether trimmed or untrimmed heads are targeted. / Dissertation (M Inst Agrar (Horticulture))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Plant Production and Soil Science / unrestricted

Tato diplomová práce se zabývá modelováním transmisního mechanismu v ČR. Hlavním cílem je zmapovat časovou strukturu reakcí makroekonomických veličin na izolované exogenní šoky při použití modelů vektorové autoregrese (VAR). Pro analýzu VAR modelů pomocí simulace Monte Carlo byla vytvořena aplikace fungující v prostředí Matlabu.

Nové regulatórne pravidlá BASEL II, ktorých hlavným cieľom je zvýšiť bezpečnosť a stabilitu finančných systémov, posilniť konkurenciu medzi bankami a umožniť väčšiu rizikovú citlivosť definujú nový typ rizika, ktoré je potrebné pokryť dodatočným kapitálom - riziko operačné. BASEL II vymedzuje 3 prístupy (základný, štandardizovaný a pokročilý), ktoré je možné použiť k výpočtu regulatórneho kapitálu, potrebného na pokrytie strát vzniknutých v dôsledku realizácie operačného rizika. V prvej časti diplomovej práce je popísaný nový koncept bankovej regulácie, v časti druhej je vymedzený pojem operačné riziko a základné prístupy k jeho kvantifikácii. Tretia kapitola obsahuje návrh zjednodušeného teoretického modelu, ktorý umožní kapitálovú požiadavku na pokrytie operačného rizika kvantifikovať.

The submitted diploma thesis deals with calculation of capital requirement according to New Basel Capital Accord and calculation of economical capital according to credit model CreditMetrics. The goal of the thesis is to submit hypothesis that level of capital requirement will be higher than economical capital. Analyses were undertaken on the bank loan portfolio made out of 5 corporate and another portfolio, which was gradually extended up to 1000 loans. 5 corporate loans were also examined by effects of correlation of assets and effects of recovery of assets.

This study seeks to analyse and quantify cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies from two major points of view. The aggregate approach rests on the use of the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) and its extension, the global vector autoregression model (GVAR). The discretionary fiscal impulse itself is then defined as a change in cyclically adjusted balance of the government sector, calculated at quarterly frequencies. This section is then complemented by a case study of a single measure: the German car scrapping scheme during 2009 and its effects on the Czech economy. It was found that cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies may be indeed present, in case certain conditions are met. Importantly, a fiscal impulse has to originate from a sufficiently large economy and there needs to be a tight trade linkage between examined countries. In most cases, cross-border effects have also been found of lesser magnitude than direct impacts of fiscal policies on the domestic country. Finally, as demonstrated on the German-Czech case, even a single fiscal measure can trigger substantial cross-border spillovers. It was estimated that this measure positively contributed to real GDP growth in 2009 in the Czech Republic by 0.44 pp.

Submitted by Nathália Faria da Silva (nathaliafsilva.ufv@gmail.com) on 2017-07-14T14:22:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.PDF: 505026 bytes, checksum: f472695b009916c9bc17613b60e07be7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-14T14:22:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.PDF: 505026 bytes, checksum: f472695b009916c9bc17613b60e07be7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2001-03-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho teve por finalidade caracterizar os efeitos da temperatura e da modificação da atmosfera sobre a conservação de couve minimamente processada, visando selecionar uma combinação adequada de embalagem e atmosfera modificada, para a conservação prolongada do produto. Em couve minimamente processada em um sistema experimental aberto, com fluxo de ar contínuo, um acréscimo de 10°C causou uma elevação da taxa respiratória de duas a duas vezes e meia, na faixa de 5 a 20°C. A redução da concentração de oxigênio resultou na diminuição da taxa respiratória em até quatro vezes, sem que fosse atingido o seu ponto de compensação anaeróbica. A exposição por 24 h à falta de oxigênio, à temperatura ambiente, reduziu a taxa respiratória em 26 vezes. Avaliou-se o efeito de 16 diferentes combinações embalagem x misturas gasosas, sobre a concentração de sólidos minimamente processada, solúveis totais armazenada e a de o C, 5 vitamina C durante 14 de couve dias de armazenamento. Embalagens com permeabilidade a oxigênio inferior a 8.500 cm³ .m^-2 .dia^-1 , não foram eficientes na conservação da couve minimamente processada, a 5°C, e a injeção de gases nas embalagens acelerou a deterioração do produto. Dentre as 16 combinações testadas, selecionaram - se as duas mais eficazes: poliolefina multicamadas (permeabilidade a O2 = 9.745 cm³ .m^-2 .dia^-1), com modificação ativa da atmosfera (0% de O2/ 5% de CO2) e com modificação passiva da atmosfera. No sistema de poliolefina multicamadas com modificação ativa de atmosfera, a injeção de gases inibiu a respiração e a produção de etileno sob as duas temperaturas de armazenamento testadas. Tais fatos não se reverteram em maior manutenção do teor de vitamina C e aceitação do consumidor, em relação a mesma embalagem com a modificação passiva de atmosfera. Os dois sistemas de modificação da atmosfera também não produziram resultados estatisticamente diferentes em relação à concentração de sólidos solúveis totais, textura e cor. / The present work evaluated the effects of packaging and modified atmosphere on the conservation of fresh cut collard greens, stored at 5 and 10°C. The effects of temperature, oxygen concentration and prolonged exposition under the absence of oxygen on the respiratory rate of the fresh cut collard greens were determined in an experimental open flow through system. An increase of 10°C in the storage temperature resulted in a 2.4 fold increase in the respiratory rate. The reduction in oxygen concentration resulted in a four fold decrease in the respiratory rate, even though the anaerobic compensation point were not attained. Fresh cut collard greens maintained for 24 h in the system without O2 resulted in a 26 fold decrease in the respiratory rate. Fresh cut collard greens stored at 5 °C in sixteen different combinations of package and gaseous mixtures, for 14 days, were evaluated for total soluble solids and vitamin C concentration during the storage period. In these experiments, it was observed that packages, with permeability rate to oxygen lower than 8,500 cm³ .m^-2 .day-^1, were not efficient for the conservation of the fresh cut collard greens at 5°C, and that injection of gases in theses packages accelerated the product deterioration. Of these 16 combinations, the most efficient ones were: multilayer polyolephinic (oxygen permeability rate = cm³ .m^-2 .day^-1) with active modified 9,745 atmosphere (0% O2/ 5% CO2) and with passive modified atmosphere. The two systems were submitted to new tests showing that although the injection of gases inhibited respiration and ethylene production in storage at 5 and 10 °C, these facts did not result in delayed conservation of vitamin C levels or in quality maintenance of and improved consumer's acceptance, as compared with the same packaging with the passive modified atmosphere.

With the acceleration of economic globalization, the immature Chinese mainland stock market is gradually associated with the stock markets of other countries. This paper predict the return rate of Chinese mainland stock market using several models from GARCH family, test the predictability by calculating Value-at-Risk, also capture the dynamic correlation between other fifive countries or region and mainland China by DCC-GARCH model. The results indicate that E-ARMA-GARCH model fifits the best due to the signifificant heteroscedasticity and leverage effect of Chinese mainland stock market. It has the strongest positive correlation with HongKong while the weakest correlation with the United States.

Diploma thesis studies the relationship between selected commodities and stock indexes. In the theoretical part of the thesis, there are described important stock indexes, their sector structure and the countries represented in each index. There is a detailed description of the analysed commodities, which are gold, crude oil and cocoa. The theoretical part focuses also on the historical development of prices of these commodities, important events with an impact on the development of prices, and factors influencing prices of commodities. There is also characterised the supply and demand for these commodities. Practical part of the thesis analyses the correlation between stock indexes and commodities and furthermore tests the relationship between stock markets and commodities with the statistical method of VAR model and Granger causality.