<p>This dissertation presents a quantitative study on the relationship between financial intermediation and the macroeconomy of the United States. It consists of two major chapters, with the first chapter studying adverse shocks to interbank market lending, and with the second chapter studying a theoretical model where aggregate balance sheets of the financial and non-financial sectors play a key role in financial intermediation frictions.</p><p>In the first chapter, I empirically investigate a novel macroeconomic shock: the funding liquidity shock. Funding liquidity is defined as the ability of a (financial) institution to raise cash at short notice, with interbank market loans being a very common source of short-term external funding. Using the "TED spread" as a proxy of aggregate funding liquidity for the period from 1971M1 to 2009M9, I first discover that, by using the vector-autoregression approach, an unanticipated adverse TED shock brings significant recessionary effects: industrial production and prices fall, and the unemployment rate rises. The contraction lasts for about twenty months. I also recover the conventional monetary policy shock, the macro impact of which is in line with the results of Christiano et al (1998) and Christiano et al (2005) . I then follow the factor model approach and find that the excess returns of small-firm portfolios are more negatively impacted by an adverse funding liquidity shock. I also present evidence that this shock as a "risk factor" is priced in the cross-section of equity returns. Moreover, a proposed factor model which includes the structural funding liquidity and monetary policy shocks as factors is able to explain the cross-sectional returns of portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market ratio as well as the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model does. Lastly, I present empirical evidence that funding liquidity and market liquidity mutually affect each other.</p><p>I start the second chapter by showing that, in U.S. data, the balance sheet health of the financial sector, as measured by its equity capital and debt level, is a leading indicator of the balance sheet health of the nonfinancial sector. This fact, and the apparent role of the financial sector in the recent global financial crisis, motivate a general equilibrium macroeconomic model featuring the balance sheets of both sectors. I estimate and study a model within the "loanable funds" framework of Holmstrom and Tirole (1997), which introduces a double moral hazard problem in the financial intermediation process. I find that financial frictions modeled within this framework give rise to a shock transmission mechanism quantitatively different from the one that arises with the conventional modeling assumption, in New Keynesian business cycle models, of convex investment adjustment costs. Financial equity capital plays an important role in determining the depth and persistence of declines in output and investment due to negative shocks to the economy. Moreover, I find that shocks to the financial intermediation process cause persistent recessions, and that these shocks explain a significant portion of the variation in investment. The estimated model is also able to replicate some aspects of the cross-correlation structure of the balance sheet variables of the two sectors.</p> / Dissertation

To resolve the inflation caused by overheated economy in 1992, China executed Macroscopic Control Policy to stabilize the fluctuation of price standard in 1993. It seemed to achieve the effort of controlling inflation. However, because of longtime Macroscopic Control Policy after Asian Financial Crisis, it resulted in negative impacts. CPI in China has been minus quantity for 39 months from October in 1997 to December in 2000. And CPI turned plus into minus from April in 1998 to January in 2000. And CPI turned plus into minus from April in 1998 to January in 2000. The growth rate of RPI is -2.6% and that of CPI is -0.8% in 1998. It declined to -3.0%(RPI) and -1.4%(CPI) in 1999. The growth rate of GDP has fallen down since 1992. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the reason of the deflation late in 1990 in China. I want to find out why deflation was happened in china? What is the main cause of deflation in china? What are the impacts and shocks to china economic growth by these causes? How are the impacts and shocks to china economic growth by these causes? The whole supply and demand and money contraction resulted in the downfall of GDP and CPI. To prevent the phenomena of overheated economy since 1993, most of investment moved away China because of Macroscopic Control Policy. Under this kind of situation, we couldn¡¦t say that the investments were excess. Therefore, the main reason isn¡¦t prices dropping caused by too much supply. China continued Deflation Policy after Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, so the speed of economy development decreased slowly. It also reduced the whole consumption, public spending, investment export, and money supply and demand. The effect of negative development resulted in the deflation of economy development.

There are three purposes in this thesis. First of all, the thesis examines the market herding behavior of real estates in Taiwan. Second, if herding exists in the markets, what factors cause herding behavior? Finally, how does herding behavior affect market performance? The empirical results show there is no herding evidence in the real estates markets when market moves downward. There are different results between different real estates and periods when market moves upward. There is obvious herding behavior in the pre-sale houses in Taipei City. Herding behavior also exist lag phenomenon. During lag period, there is obvious herding behavior in the pre-sale houses in Taipei when market moves upward. There is weak herding behavior in the other real estates, including pre-sale houses of Taipei County, existing houses and land. We find that macro factors such as money supply, GDP growth rate, saving amount, incoming and micro factors such as market depth and market return in the last period will cause herding behavior. Finally, herding behavior, price volatility and transaction amount volatility have Granger causality. Herding behavior will makes price more efficient and increases transaction.

These theses whether examine the property stock investors are overconfident or underconfident. This thesis firstly use VAR model and the empirical result shows that the property stock investors existed overconfidence investment behavior in the bull market, especially in low-price stock. However, this kind of behavior does not exist in the bear market. The result also shows that most of turnover rate are driven by market return rather than property stock return. this represents investors purchase (or sell) the property stock is caused by the market goes up (or down) rather than have perspective in the property stock. The result implied the property stock investor had speculative trading in short term. In long term, investors have insufficient faith in the real estate market. Next, this thesis use EGARCH and the result shows that the overconfidence investors¡¦ excessive trading will increase volatility, and will harm the development of industry. Finally, we discussed the main factor of investors¡¦ underconfidence in property industry, found political environment as well as long recession are the factors.

No description available.

Regional income disparity continues to be a source of major concern for Canadian policymakers. This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces, and seeks to identify the role of one particular determinant entrepreneurship in explaining regional economic growth. The neoclassical growth framework is applied to a set of panel data drawn from Canadian provinces. An econometric model is applied to test for convergence and to identify the role of entrepreneurship in determining growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship plays a significant role in regional development in Canada. A dynamic vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to predict the long-run effects of entrepreneurial policy changes on regional development. The dynamic estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship has long term stimulative effects on regional development in Canada. These findings, while important from a policymakers perspective, have surprisingly gone unnoticed. / Agricultural and Resource Economics

No description available.

There is a limited amount of literature regarding spillover effects on inflation. The previous literature is focused on a small number of countries, and on shocks coming from demand and supply. The objective of this thesis is to investigate how a change in the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate affects Swedish inflation in the short and long run. To this end, this thesisestimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model using data for the period from 2000 to 2022. The results show that a change in the ECB rate does not have statistically significant effect on the Swedish inflation in the short run, but has statistically significant effect in the long run. The long run results do also show that an increase in the ECB rate have a positive effect on the Swedish central bank’s policy rate.

Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka hur Riksbankens stora köp av stats- och företagsobligationer hjälpte till att återhämta den svenska ekonomin efter den ekonomiska nedgången år 2020. För att genomföra denna analys nyttjar jag en strukturell vektor autoregressions-modell, samt ett flertal variabler som är väsentliga inom den svenska ekonomin. Den data som används sträcker sig mellan januari 2011 och december 2020. Resultaten visar att Riksbankens obligationsköp först minskade industriproduktionen som sedan återgick till sin normala nivå. Både den långa och den korta räntan påverkades i mycket liten utsträckning. Riksbankens obligationsköp ledde till en uppgång på börsen och en depreciering av den svenska kronan. Slutsatsen utifrån detta är att Riksbankens köp av obligationer bidrog till att stimulera den svenska ekonomin i begränsad utsträckning.

The aim of this thesis is to conduct a nuanced investigation of connectedness in the global futures market across time and market conditions through a Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model. Later, a linear regression is utilized to identify determinants of futures market connectedness across market conditions. The sample period consists of daily data from December 2017 to August 2023. Our dataset includes five uncertainties and 19 continuous futures contracts, making it the most comprehensive study of futures market connectedness after the Russian invasion of Ukraine to our knowledge.  The results highlight heterogeneous effects across time and market conditions for all assets, with the futures market connectedness increasing during times of uncertainty. US equity, German Equity, Japanese equity, British equity, gold, silver, USD and EUR are identified as net transmitters of spillovers, whereas the rest of the futures are identified as net receivers. These findings are interesting in the concept of theory as they highlight potential periods of flight-to-safety and safe haven properties for certain futures. When including uncertainties in the QVAR model, financial uncertainty is identified as the only net transmitter, whereas the other uncertainties are net receivers.  Drivers of futures market connectedness depend on market conditions and time, with energy uncertainty being significant for normal markets and the world equity index being significant for bearish markets in both the full sample and a Covid-19 subsample. For the full sample only, financialization is identified as a driver during bullish markets. More variables are significant for the Covid-19 subsample. The commodity index and US dollar index becomes significant in bearish markets and monetary uncertainty in bullish markets.  Our findings are relevant for both investors and policymakers. The results suggest that investors should monitor market conditions when investing in the futures market to suitably optimize, diversify, and hedge their portfolios. For policymakers, monitoring spillover from the futures market is important as it can impact the overall economy by using the industrial sector as a transmission channel. This can aid in early decision-making and minimize the impact of economic downturns. / Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, eine nuancierte Untersuchung der Verbundenheit im globalen Terminmarkt über Zeit und Marktbedingungen durch ein Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) Modell durchzuführen. Später benutzen wir eine lineare Regression, um Determinanten der Terminmarktverbundenheit unter verschiedene Marktbedingungen zu identifizieren. Der Zeitraum dieser Untersuchung besteht aus täglichen Daten von Dezember 2017 bis August 2023. Die Daten umfasst fünf Unsicherheitsmaße und 19 kontinuierliche Terminkontrakte, damit ist es nach unserem Wissen die umfassendste Untersuchung über die Verbundenheit des Terminmarkts nach der russischen Invasion die Ukraine.  Die Ergebnisse hervorheben heterogene Effekte über Zeit und Marktbedingungen für alle Variablen, wobei die Verbundenheit des Terminmarkts während unsicherer Perioden verstärkt ist. Der amerikanische Aktienindex, deutsche Aktienindex, japanische Aktienindex, britische Aktienindex, Gold, Silber, US-Dollar und Euro werden als Nettoübermittler von Spillovern identifiziert, während die andere Terminkontrakte als Nettoempfänger identifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse sind interessant im Kontext der Theorie, da sie sowohl potenzielle Perioden von Flight-to-Safety als auch Safe Haven-Eigenschaften für die Terminkontrakte hinweisen. Bei der Einbeziehung von Unsicherheitsmaßen in das QVAR-Modell wird die finanzielle Unsicherheit als einziger Nettoübermittler identifiziert, während die anderen Unsicherheiten Nettoempfänger sind.  Die Determinanten der Verbundenheit an den Terminmarkt sind von Zeit und Marktbedingungen abhängig, wobei die Energieunsicherheit für normale Marktbedingungen und die Weltaktienindex für bärische Marktbedingungen während sowohl des ganzen Zeitraums als auch des Covid-19 Zeitraums signifikant ist. Finanzialisierung ist nur während des ganzen Zeitraums als Determinant für bullische Marktbedingungen signifikant. Im Covid-19 Zeitraum sind weitere Variablen signifikant. Der Rohstoffindex wird in bärische Marktbedingungen und die US-Dollar-Index wird in bullische Marktbedingungen signifikant.  Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung sind sowohl für Investoren als auch für politische und finanzielle Entscheidungsträger relevant. Die Ergebnisse andeuten, dass Investoren die Marktbedingungen beobachten sollten, wenn sie in den Terminmarkt investieren, um ihre Portfolios zu optimieren, diversifizieren und abzusichern. Für politische und finanzielle Entscheidungsträger ist die Beobachtung von Spillover-Effekten vom Terminmarkt wichtig, da sie auf die Gesamtwirtschaft durch die Industriesektor auswirken können. Darum kann diese kontinuierliche Beobachtung zu früheren makroökonomischen Entscheidungen führen und damit ungünstige wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen minimieren.