Thesis advisor: Hideo Konishi / Becker (1968) provides a formal framework for analyzing various policies in criminal law. Within this framework there are potential criminals, who have varying benefits from committing an illegal act. They are subject to sanctions when they are caught and are found guilty for committing such acts. Accordingly, increased expected sanctions lead to greater deterrence. There are also costs associated with achieving such deterrence. Hence, there are optimal policy variables which balance costs and gains associated with increased deterrence. In my dissertation, in five independent but closely related essays, I address various issues related to criminal law by making use of optimal crime and deterrence models, which are similar to Becker (1968). First, I analyze the standard of proof in criminal trials and extend a justification as to why there are higher standards of proof in criminal trials versus civil trials. Next, I introduce the concept of mixed warning strategies, and justify the use of mixed as well as pure warning strategies in law enforcement. In a related essay, I show that it is optimal to punish repeat offenders more severely than first time offenders, provided that offenders gain experience in evading detection by committing offenses. In my fourth essay, I identify reasons as to why it is welfare improving to allow individuals to self-report conduct crimes. Finally, I propose a simple framework to incorporate the concept of remorse in the economic analysis of criminal law, and show that the Beckerian maximal fine result need not hold when some individuals feel remorse. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2010. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Tobacco remains the leading preventable cause of death in the world, and 5 million people worldwide continue to smoke. Further adding to the problem is the fact that smoking cessation rates are very low, and there are some smokers for whom quitting smoking is extremely difficult. Many smokers find nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products unappealing, and even when used as directed NRTs only achieve modest cessation rates. Smokeless tobacco (ST) may be more appealing than NRT and deliver nicotine in a more palatable way to cigarette smokers. ST is also far less harmful than smoking. It is for these reasons that many scientists and health professionals have suggested the use of ST as a substitute for smoking to reduce tobacco-related harm. Although the health risk posed by ST appears to be much less than conventional cigarettes, the extent to which ST may serve as a harm reduction product is highly contentious. Furthermore, although ST products are legal and widely available, it remains unclear whether conventional cigarette smokers in Canada will use ST products as a substitute for cigarettes or as a cessation aid, if at all. And despite the strong evidence for the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels, there is little research on ST health warning labels. The current study investigated perceptions of ST products with and without HWLs and relative health risk messages among 611 young adult Canadian smokers aged 18-30. The study sought to examine the impact of ST health warning labels (HWLs) on appeal, willingness to use, and perceived health risk and addictiveness. Participants completed a survey during which they were asked to view and provide their opinions on a series of ST packages that were digitally altered according to each of six experimental conditions: (1) "standard" packages of leading ST brands, (2) "standard" packages + a relative risk message about the harm of cigarettes compared to ST added, (3) "Standard" packages + text HWL, (4) "Standard" packages + text HWL and relative risk message, (5) "Standard" packages + picture HWL, and (6) "Standard" packages + picture HWL and relative risk message. The findings indicate that many smokers are unaware that ST is less harmful to health compared to smoking. Despite this, approximately half of young adult Canadian smokers indicated that iv they were willing to try ST as a substitute for smoking and to help quit smoking. Picture warnings increased misperceptions about the health risk of ST and decreased smokers‘ willingness to try ST, whereas text warnings did not. Similarly, adding a relative health risk message to the warning label that communicates the lower risk of ST compared to cigarettes increased willingness to try ST when added to text warnings, and decreased willingness to try ST even further when added to picture warnings. This study is among the first to examine ST warning labels, and is the first to examine the impact of picture warning labels on ST. Overall, the findings suggest picture warnings may make it more difficult to communicate the differences in risk between ST and cigarettes.

Tobacco remains the leading preventable cause of death in the world, and 5 million people worldwide continue to smoke. Further adding to the problem is the fact that smoking cessation rates are very low, and there are some smokers for whom quitting smoking is extremely difficult. Many smokers find nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products unappealing, and even when used as directed NRTs only achieve modest cessation rates. Smokeless tobacco (ST) may be more appealing than NRT and deliver nicotine in a more palatable way to cigarette smokers. ST is also far less harmful than smoking. It is for these reasons that many scientists and health professionals have suggested the use of ST as a substitute for smoking to reduce tobacco-related harm. Although the health risk posed by ST appears to be much less than conventional cigarettes, the extent to which ST may serve as a harm reduction product is highly contentious. Furthermore, although ST products are legal and widely available, it remains unclear whether conventional cigarette smokers in Canada will use ST products as a substitute for cigarettes or as a cessation aid, if at all. And despite the strong evidence for the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels, there is little research on ST health warning labels. The current study investigated perceptions of ST products with and without HWLs and relative health risk messages among 611 young adult Canadian smokers aged 18-30. The study sought to examine the impact of ST health warning labels (HWLs) on appeal, willingness to use, and perceived health risk and addictiveness. Participants completed a survey during which they were asked to view and provide their opinions on a series of ST packages that were digitally altered according to each of six experimental conditions: (1) "standard" packages of leading ST brands, (2) "standard" packages + a relative risk message about the harm of cigarettes compared to ST added, (3) "Standard" packages + text HWL, (4) "Standard" packages + text HWL and relative risk message, (5) "Standard" packages + picture HWL, and (6) "Standard" packages + picture HWL and relative risk message. The findings indicate that many smokers are unaware that ST is less harmful to health compared to smoking. Despite this, approximately half of young adult Canadian smokers indicated that iv they were willing to try ST as a substitute for smoking and to help quit smoking. Picture warnings increased misperceptions about the health risk of ST and decreased smokers‘ willingness to try ST, whereas text warnings did not. Similarly, adding a relative health risk message to the warning label that communicates the lower risk of ST compared to cigarettes increased willingness to try ST when added to text warnings, and decreased willingness to try ST even further when added to picture warnings. This study is among the first to examine ST warning labels, and is the first to examine the impact of picture warning labels on ST. Overall, the findings suggest picture warnings may make it more difficult to communicate the differences in risk between ST and cigarettes.

In the aftermath of the verdict of acquittal in “Sweden’s largest insider trading case” once again a debate concerning illegal insider trading has arisen and a lot of criticism is directed towards the laws. The purpose of this master´s thesis is to investigate the occurrence of insider trading and whether or not Swedish legislation has decreased the presence of insider trading on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. For this purpose the legal aspects and relevant arguments are presented and discussed. An event study is performed in order to see if profit warnings show evidence of insider trading on the Swedish stock exchange. The event study show statistically significant evidence of illegal insider trading in 21 out of 44 cases on the Stockholm stock exchange. There is no significant difference in insider trading between profit warnings and reversed profit warnings. The regression show evidence of that the law has had a small negative impact on insider trading in the sample which is surprising and that insider trading is industry correlated. The high frequency of insider trading shows evidence of that the laws are inefficient in stopping insider trading. Since it is clear that the law is seriously flawed in stopping insider trading and that insider trading actually may positively affect the market and its participants, it is argued that it is very questionable if the legislation is necessary and if insider trading should be prohibited at all.

Warning Fatigue or Cry-Wolf effect is a taken-for-granted phenomenon that can result from being ‘over-warned’. The terms are used to describe situations where individuals who are exposed to recurring warning messages about a disaster which then does not eventuate become cynical, apathetic and ‘tired’ of hearing warnings. They may become desensitised to the risk thereby endangering themselves even more. The assumption by practitioners (emergency managers and governmental policy-makers for example) that warning fatigue is a problem presents emergency agencies with a conundrum: they want to avoid the accusation of panicking the public but worry they may run the risk of under-preparing them at the same time. As a result, they may be tempted to err on the side of caution, delay issuing a warning and downplay the possible severity of a potential disaster. Examination of the literature, and an analysis of presentations and news stories have shown that policy-makers, emergency managers, academics and the public use the term ‘cry wolf’ or ‘warning fatigue’ in everyday life. They regard it as conventional wisdom and believe it can influence risk perception and warning response. Nonetheless it has been presumptively assigned by some disaster theorists to the category of a myth. A limited warning fatigue literature has examined the phenomenon in the context of rapid-onset disasters and has concluded that risk perception is not affected by warning fatigue. However, it also suggests there is a direct relationship between warning time, preparedness and response. This allows for the possibility that warning fatigue may not be a myth, but a function of the type of disaster, the frequency of warnings and warning lead-time. This thesis makes a distinction between rapid-onset and prolonged lead-time disasters and hypothesises that prolonged lead-time disasters are responded to in very differently ways than rapid-onset ones. Australian bushfires provide the context in which this research was conducted because bushfires are repeatedly warned about yet rarely (once every ten or twenty years) result in a major disaster. Using social constructionist and social representation theoretical frameworks, and integrating psychosocial and sociological perspectives, this thesis examines the role that warning fatigue plays in the risk perceptions, warning responses and decision-making processes of people living in bushfire-prone areas of Australia. Utilisation of a mixed methods design, a substantive literature review and two rounds of semi-structured interviews resulted in a conceptualisation of a bushfire warning fatigue measure (BWFM). Application of the measure among at-risk Australian communities validated the measure. Through empirical statistical analysis, this standardised instrument was revised (BWFM-R) and used to measure the change in warning fatigue levels over a fire season (November 2011-April 2012). Analysis showed that warning fatigue appears to be multi-faceted comprising five aspects: Trust and credibility, over-warning, false alarms, scepticism and helplessness. It was also found that warning fatigue responses are contextual and interconnected with ‘unofficial’ warnings (such as media stories). The direction of the change and analysis of the qualitative component of the survey implied that unofficial bushfire rhetoric from the media during the winter months may produce a warning fatigue effect, so that when the official warnings were issued at the beginning of the bushfire season, the public were already ‘tired’ of the message. Trust and credibility, over-warning, false alarms, scepticism and helplessness are not new factors in public warning response to disaster communication, but this research demonstrates that they can combine in a unique way to produce ‘warning fatigue’. It proposes that if emergency and disaster agencies differentiate between rapid-onset and prolonged lead-time disasters, understand the complexities of warning fatigue and design their warnings accordingly, then disaster risk communication will become more effective, increasing public engagement and improving disaster response.

No description available.

A gap of knowledge lies within the hazard of extreme heat within the United States and the public’s response and perception of their own vulnerability. Even with constant communication from meteorologist at the National Weather Service and within the broadcast industry, there are still ongoing issues which include the possibility that ambient air temperature from fixed sites do not accurately reflect what the general population is experiencing, that the thresholds for excessive heat warnings are not appropriate, and that the most vulnerable individuals do not have the knowledge, and/or ability to protect themselves when extreme heat does occur. Assessment of the spatial pattens of heat alerts across the United States, mortality risks associated with extreme heat, and days above alert thresholds between 2010 to 2021 will be utilized to exhibit cities and regions where thresholds could be inappropriate and to reveal the most vulnerable between regions within this period.

During 2007 – 2015, a total of 2,359 tornado watches were issued by the Storm Prediction Center and 10,840 tornadoes were confirmed. The objective of the first part of this study analyzed the accuracy of tornado watches for the nine-year period of 2007 – 2015. In addition to accuracy, fatalities, lead times, valid watch times, and areas were calculated for each tornado watch. 58.80% of the tornado watches had at least one tornado inside the tornado watch and 27.43% had at least one tornado outside the tornado watch. Of the 10,840 tornadoes, 56.70% were inside a tornado watch, 9.69% were outside a tornado watch, and 33.62% occurred when there was no tornado watch in effect. The average valid time for a tornado watch was 6 hours and 50 minutes and the average lead time for a tornado was 2 hours and 8 minutes. The second objective utilized a survey to determine participant knowledge and better understand “watch severity response”. A majority of the survey respondents accurately identified the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning. Most of the respondents described their weather knowledge as ‘moderately knowledgeable,’ ‘very knowledgeable,’ or ‘slightly knowledgeable.’ TV meteorologists, the NWS, and weather apps are the most common sources for daily weather information and information regarding a tornado watch. 81.63% of the respondents correctly identified if they were under a tornado watch during 2016. As the severity of the watch or the length of the activity increased, the likelihood of the respondent continuing the activity decreased. 38.87%, 54.76%, and 79.18% of the respondents ‘probably would not’ or ‘definitely would not’ continue an activity, lasting any duration, during a severe thunderstorm watch, a tornado watch, or a PDS tornado watch, respectively. The final objective attempts to categorize simple economic response to various watch severity types. The percent of respondents who would not continue an activity, based on the severity of the watch, was applied to a variety of watches that occurred during 2016. The economic loss associated with a watch ranged from $498,332.15 – $107,126,919.19.

No description available.

The growth of web-based malware and phishing attacks has catalyzed significant advances in the research and use of interstitial warning pages and modals by a browser prior to loading the content of a suspect site. These warnings commonly use visual cues to attract users' attention, including specialized iconography, color, and an absence of buttons to communicate the importance of the scenario. While the efficacy of visual techniques has improved safety for sighted users, these techniques are unsuitable for blind and visually impaired users. This is likely not due to a lack of interest or technical capability by browser manufactures, where universal design is a core tenet of their engineering practices, but instead a reflection of the very real dearth of research literature to inform best practices, exacerbated by a deficit of clear methodologies for conducting studies with this population. Indeed, the challenges are manifold. In this paper, we present the results of our study analyzing the experiences of the visually impaired with browser security warnings, detail the development and advancement of the methodological best practices when conducting a study of this kind, and ultimately identify some initial approaches that could improve the security for this population.