In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.

There are a wide range of issues that stem from inadequate access to, and the unsustainable management of water resources, which can lead to ecological and human crises (Gleik, 1998: 571). With the increasing demand for clean water for drinking and sanitation, coupled with population growth, aging infrastructure, and climate change, many countries face a complex set of threats when dealing with their water resources and the management thereof (Environmental Protection Agency, 2012: 4). South Africa‟s challenges are no different, if current trends in water management continue and government does not intervene with what has been an unequal society even in terms of the division of water, it will continue to lose ground in its development and sustaining of water resources (Ukwandu, 2009: 24 - 30). “The objective of managing the quantity, quality and reliability of the nation‟s water resources is to achieve optimum, long-term, environmentally sustainable social and economic benefit for society from their use.” (Principle 7 of the National Water Policy, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, 1997: 20). The primary objective of this research is to develop a framework for water management and sustainable development by utilising a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to develop strategies for innovation in South Africa towards 2050. New rules and regulations have been adopted by local municipal divisions in South Africa to promote sustainable, environmentally friendly buildings and methods. It is therefore the aim of the research to establish ways in which water can be harvested and saved in a simple and innovative yet sustainable manner. The complexity of erecting structures has also increased with some sustainable measures in water management taking place, however the water issues in South Africa continue to grow and cause concern. Government therefore plays a pivotal role in ensuring that water is managed sustainably at not only harvesting and infrastructure level but also re-cycling level, where simple innovative strategies can be adopted. This paper further seeks to highlight the positive and negative impacts of implementing water management methods and strategies that can be adopted.

The Working for Water (WfW) Programme is a public works programme designed to clear South Africa of invasive alien vegetation and to restore lowwater consuming indigenous vegetation in the areas that have been cleared. Funds to clear alien invasives were initially secured on the basis that such a programme would increase water runoff, facilitate biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and provide social benefits through job creation. The economic merits of the Programme, in terms of increased water yields, has been established in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, but questioned in the Eastern and Southern Cape. However, there are economic aspects of the studies carried out in the Eastern and Southern Cape that merit more attention than was given them; one of these being the issue of non-water benefits. Preliminary figures emanating from contingent valuation pilot studies conducted at six WfW projects sites indicated that one of these non-water benefits, namely the biodiversity and ecosystem resilience benefit, could be substantial. As such, the primary objective of the present study was to apply the contingent valuation method (CVM) to value people’s preference for indigenous vegetation. This value was intended to serve as a proxy for increased biodiversity and ecosystem resilience at three WfW sites. Despite the controversy surrounding the CVM, it has been found that it is a credible valuation tool. The CVM’s merits lie in its versatility and in the fact that it is the only method available which is capable of obtaining estimates of both nonuse and use values, thus making it applicable for valuing biodiversity. The primary aim of a CVM study is to determine an estimate of the total willingness-to-pay (WTP). In this study, the total WTP figure was calculated by multiplying the median WTP for the local WfW Programme by the total number of user households. The respective total WTP amounts are shown in Table 1. It was anticipated that respondents would be willing to pay more for the national WfW Programme, than for the less inclusive good (i.e. the local WfW Programme). The results correspond with this expectation at the Port Elizabeth and Underberg sites. However, due to strategic factors Worcester respondents were willing to pay more for the local WfW Programme than for the national Programme.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa‟s hydrological and geographical characteristics, coupled with the location of a large part of its mineral endowment, required the development of the complex Vaal River Supply System, including inter-basin water transfer (IBT) projects which have been in operation for over twenty-five years. This research compares the actual water transfers of two such IBTs with their original, appraisal stage, predictions. Transfers are shown to be significantly less and also more variable than predicted. Further research reveals that the state of the receiving system has a large bearing on year-to-year decisions regarding transfers. Past appraisals, following what is called the Incremental Approach, do not adequately consider the likely future inter-basin transfer operating regime. Examination of six case studies, four South African, one Chinese and one Australian, shows that the Incremental Approach is still in general use – despite tools available for an improved approach. A new approach is proposed to upgrade estimations of variable costs associated with water transfers – often substantial life-cycle cost components of IBTs. The generally used unit reference value (URV) measure for appraising and ranking water resource projects in South Africa is also rooted in the economic theory of cost-effectiveness. This shows that the current approach is conceptually flawed; it fails to distinguish between water transfers and effectiveness outputs. The determination of the URV equation is expanded and improved. The upgraded appraisal approach, inclusive of the improved URV methodology, is named the Comprehensive Approach. A step-wise demonstration of the Comprehensive Approach is provided. Uncertainty regarding future water transfers and associated variable costs are provided for by stochastic simulation modelling. Decision analysis theory is applied to obtain the appropriate input value of variable costs. It is shown that the Comprehensive Approach can lead to an outcome significantly different from the Incremental Approach. The research provides new insights, placing water resource planning practitioners in a better position to recommend appropriate IBTs in future. These insights can also be transferred to the design of institutional and financial models related to IBTs, as well as the configuration and operation of supply systems including sea-water desalination projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika se hidrologiese en geografiese eienskappe, gekoppel aan die ligging van 'n groot deel van sy minerale bates, het gelei tot die ontwikkeling van die komplekse Vaalrivier Voorsieningstelsel, insluitend tussen-bekken oordragskemas waarvan sommige al vir meer as vyf-en-twintig jaar in werking is. Hierdie navorsing vergelyk die werklike wateroordragte van twee sulke oordragskemas met die oorspronklike vooruitskattings tydens die beplanning-stadium. Daar word getoon dat oordragte noemenswaardig minder en ook meer onreëlmatig was as wat voorspel is. Verdere ondersoek toon dat die stand van die stelsel, aan die ontvangskant, die besluitneming rakende die jaar-tot-jaar oordrag beïnvloed het. Historiese evaluerings het 'n “Inkrementele Benadering” (soos hier genoem) gevolg, wat nie voldoende die toekomstige bedryfsomgewing ten opsigte van tussen-bekken oordragte inagneem nie. Ondersoek van ses gevalstudies, vier Suid-Afrikaans, een Sjinees en een Australies, toon dat die Inkrementele Benadering nog algemeen in gebruik is, ten spyte daarvan dat hulpmiddels vir 'n verbeterde benadering beskikbaar is. 'n Nuwe benadering word voorgestel vir die verbetering van vooruitskattings van veranderlike koste wat met wateroordragte geassosieer word – dikwels 'n aansienlike gedeelte van die lewenssiklus-koste van sodanige skemas. Die Eenheidverwysingswaarde (EVW) maatstaf, wat algemeen in Suid-Afrika gebruik word om waterbronprojekte te beoordeel en in rangorde te plaas, word ook geanker in die ekonomiese teorie van koste-effektiwiteit. Daarmee word getoon dat die huidige gebruik van die EVW konsepsioneel gebrekkig is; dit tref nie 'n onderskeid tussen wateroordragte en effektiwiteitsuitsette nie. Die bepaling van die EVW vergelyking is verbreed en verbeter. Die opgegradeerde benadering, met insluiting van die verbeterde EVW metodiek, word die Omvattende Benadering genoem. 'n Stapsgewyse uiteensetting van die Omvattende Benadering word voorsien. Onsekerhede ten opsigte van wateroordragte en geassosieerde veranderlike koste word deur middel van stogastiese modellering aangespreek. Besluitnemingontledingsteorie word ingespan om die toepaslike insetwaarde van die veranderlike koste te bepaal. Daar word getoon dat die Omvattende Benadering tot 'n resultaat kan lei wat aansienlik verskil van wat met die Inkrementele Benadering verkry word. Die navorsing verskaf nuwe insigte wat die waterbronbeplanner in 'n beter posisie sal plaas om gepaste tussen-bekken oordragskemas voor te stel. Hierdie insigte kan ook oorgedra word na die ontwerp van institusionele en finansiële modelle rakende oordragskemas, asook die uitleg en bedryf van voorsieningstelsels, insluitend seewater-ontsoutingsaanlegte.

In this minithesis I have investigated overlapping mandates as a source of management failure in water management in South Africa in general and Eerste River Catchment in particular. I analysed major legislation which deals with water management to find out how duties and responsibilities are apportioned in the various pieces of legislation. I also undertook an exercise of evaluating roles and responsibilities played by various organs of state in water management from national government, Provincial Government of the Western Cape through to local government, in this case the Municipality of Stellenbosch and the City of Cape Town. It emerged that there were a number of areas of overlap, ambiguously defined mandates, conflict and that these were impeding on decision making in water management. In order to test the framework built above, I then applied it in the Plankenbrug River, a tributary of the Eerste River. Through analysis of newspaper clippings over a period of 4 years I was able to reconstruct conflict over ill-defined mandates in the various aspects of the management of the catchment which showed that<br /> there were differences in roles of the different state organs operating in the catchment. Water management conflict emanated from lack of congruence in the various legislation and differences in the interpretation of legislation. The various state organs seem to be aware of the constitutional duty of cooperative government that engenders state organs to work co-operatively in order to meet their developmental mandates. It seems however that the state organs were merely interested to be seen to be in conformity with this duty more than actually solving the issue as this was seen as something to be tackled at a higher level.

In this minithesis I have investigated overlapping mandates as a source of management failure in water management in South Africa in general and Eerste River Catchment in particular. I analysed major legislation which deals with water management to find out how duties and responsibilities are apportioned in the various pieces of legislation. I also undertook an exercise of evaluating roles and responsibilities played by various organs of state in water management from national government, Provincial Government of the Western Cape through to local government, in this case the Municipality of Stellenbosch and the City of Cape Town. It emerged that there were a number of areas of overlap, ambiguously defined mandates, conflict and that these were impeding on decision making in water management. In order to test the framework built above, I then applied it in the Plankenbrug River, a tributary of the Eerste River. Through analysis of newspaper clippings over a period of 4 years I was able to reconstruct conflict over ill-defined mandates in the various aspects of the management of the catchment which showed that<br /> there were differences in roles of the different state organs operating in the catchment. Water management conflict emanated from lack of congruence in the various legislation and differences in the interpretation of legislation. The various state organs seem to be aware of the constitutional duty of cooperative government that engenders state organs to work co-operatively in order to meet their developmental mandates. It seems however that the state organs were merely interested to be seen to be in conformity with this duty more than actually solving the issue as this was seen as something to be tackled at a higher level.

This Masters research took place in the Kat River Valley in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The Kat River Valley is a semi-rural catchment that covers an area of approximately 1700km² and is characterized by a complicated history of dispossession and resettlement. Farming is the main activity that is practiced in the area. This includes the farming of citrus at a commercial scale, rangeland stock farming and small-scale vegetable farming. The economy of the catchment is enhanced mostly by commercial citrus farming, which consumes by far the largest amount of water in the river through irrigation. Water allocation is a burning issue among water users in the catchment and needs to be negotiated taking into consideration social, economic and environment impacts. The aim of this study is to describe, discuss and evaluate the Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach, which used a simulation model and a role-playing game related to the model in order to facilitate and develop negotiating skills as well as build capacity in decision-making amongst local stakeholders for water resource management in the Kat River Valley. The ComMod approach, developed by a group of Companion Modellers, is a community-based science approach that emerged in the 1990s. The ComMod approach is used in order to facilitate collective learning, negotiation and institutional innovation in dealing with resource management complexities faced by rural communities. Through ComMod, the model (KatAWARE) and its related role-playing game was developed by having the contact with local stakeholders. The information to feed the model and the role-playing game came from informal interviews, surveys, geographic information systems (GIS), workshops and focus groups. The use of workshops in the implementation of ComMod was a success. Results show that (1) new knowledge was acquired, which allowed stakeholders to have a broad understanding of a catchment system. (2) Awareness was created about complex systems and enabled stakeholders to see an individual action into to the broader system. (3) Strong interrelationships were fostered amongst different water users, which allowed stakeholders to share their view points. The ComMod process was however associated with a number of limitations, many of which resulted from the constraints that were imposed by the socio-economic background of the study area. Nevertheless, the outcome of the study shows that the ComMod process was useful in helping the Kat River Water Users Association (KRWUA) stakeholders develop negotiating skills regarding water allocation strategies for the development of the Catchment Management Plan.

The thesis covers the investigation of the storm water runoff and artificial recharge components of the Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme in the Southwestern Cape. The objective of the study was to obtain an in-depth knowledge of the process of artificial recharge of urban storm water runoff, in order to identify the most efficient recharge management strategy for the Atlantis aquifer. To achieve the objective it was necessary to first study the existing knowledge on urban storm water hydrology and artificial recharge by spreading, and to create a conceptual model of what might be expected. The study area was then investigated to examine how closely the actual situation was reflected by the conceptual model, enabling recommendations to be made for the sound management of the system. The stormwater runoff component was found to differ from most urban hydrological studies as a result of its large baseflow component. The sandy nature of the catchment, small percentage area of effective impervious surface, and high groundwater table resulted in the baseflow constituting more than 40% of the total storm water runoff and accounting for over 60% of the pollution load. The "first flush" effect established as a major source of pollution in other studies, was found to be of minor significance in this study area. The overall stormwater quality (excluding the noxious industrial baseflow) was found acceptable for artificial recharge within the study area, although the baseflow from the industrial sub-catchments showed the potential for being a major source of pollution in the future. The treated wastewater used for artificial recharge prior to 1987 was found to be unacceptable for recharge purposes. The treated industrial effluent should under no circumstances be recharged up-gradient of the Witzand well field. The treated domestic effluent although of a poorer quality than the resident Witzand well field groundwater could be recharged in order to boost recharge volumes and form a buffer against further intrusion by the poor quality groundwater from the Brakkefontein area. This would however only be acceptable if strict water quality control is maintained and recharge does not take place west of the present basin. The recharge basin was found to be well situated with respect to influencing the Witzand wellfield and maintaining a groundwater buffer against poor quality groundwater flow from the northeast towards the central area of the wellfield. Unfortunately the surrounding low-lying topography and sandy retaining walls have resulted in return flow and raised groundwater-levels. The raised groundwater mound does not comply with the conceptual model and together with the sandy nature of the unsaturated zone resulted in less effective purification during infiltration. The practice of letting large portions of the basin floor dry-out during summer was shown to be beneficial and the periodic cleaning of the deeper portions of the basin essential. The artificially recharged water was found to have influenced the upper portion of the aquifer well beyond the West Coast Road. The study of groundwater quality being a good method for tracing artificially recharged water. The groundwater quality has improved as a result of artificial recharge since the removal of treated wastewater from the recharge basin. The groundwater was (ii) found to be very responsive to the slightest changes in recharge basin water quality or/and quantity. Management of the recharge basin therefore had to be very much of a compromise between qualitative and quantitative approaches. The present approach of recharging all the stormwater runoff throughout the year providing the most efficient compromise under the present conditions. The study revealed that the most efficient recharge management strategy would be the recharge of treated domestic sewage effluent in the present recharge basin and all residential storm water runoff plus industrial "storm flow" stormwater runoff in a new recharge basin located northwest of the present basin. Strict water quality control must be maintained on the water discharged into the basins and an annual wet/dry cycle implemented within the basins to boost infiltration. The entire system should continue being monitored to safe guard the groundwater resource from pollution and over exploitation.

Magister Scientiae (Integrated Water Resource Management) / The water resources management regime has shifted from one focusing almost exclusively on augmenting supply to one where ensuring access, equity and sustainability are an integral part of the process. A growing demand for water and the fact that the amount of fresh water is constant raises the impression of water scarcity will occur. Indications are that the notion of access to water for basic needs as well as access to productive water underpins perceptions of scarcity. This thesis interrogated perceptions of scarcity in a small rural community in order to understand the role water can play in developing sustainable livelihoods. / South Africa

Balancing water demand and supply in South Africa involves high levels of uncertainty. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) is responsible for making decisions to either increase water supply or decrease water demand so as to ensure that sufficient water is available, when and where it is needed. However, no retrospective analyses of such decisions have been found. One way to assess such decisions is to evaluate the associated costs and benefits thereof. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to evaluate the costs and benefits of selected water supply options, and of the decision-making associated with those options. In order to achieve this purpose, four case studies were analysed within a mixed-methods research paradigm, which used both quantitative and qualitative methods, including unit reference value (URV) analysis, inter- and intra-case analysis and content analysis to examine the success of the decisions made. The four case studies were conducted on the Inyaka, Nandoni, Berg and De Hoop dams and their catchments. Firstly, estimated and actual project costs were compared using unit reference analysis and inter-case analyses. Secondly, the reduction of mean annual runoff (MAR) caused by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and the cost of clearing them in the dam catchments were evaluated using inter-case analyses. Information thus gathered was used together with data from DWS documentation and the results of interviews with ten key specialists, to analyse the decision-making process that led to the decision to build De Hoop Dam (the most recent case study). The rational decision-making model (RDMM) was used as a framework within which to analyse and evaluate this decision-making process. This study has also demonstrated how the RDMM can be used to assess decision-making associated with water supply development. The results of this study show that there is considerable variation of estimated costs (at the time that the decision to build the dam was taken) in relation to the actual costs of building the dams and that Ministers were not put in a position to understand the full long-term costs or the opportunity costs of the proposed dams. Furthermore, the most recent IAP data (2008) shows that the impact on water security by IAPs could not offset the water security resulting from building each of the four dams. However, if IAP management is not continued in these catchments, the projected reduction of MAR by IAPs will compromise water security within 45 years. Given the almost exponential spread and densification of IAPs, together with their long-term impact on MAR and increased costs of controlling them, it is clear that IAP management should have been factored into water supply decision-making from the outset. In the analysis of the decision to build the De Hoop Dam, the results show that while the decision-making process that culminated in the decision to build the dam did not follow the steps of the RDMM, DWS appears to have followed a somewhat similar approach. It was found that while there was a need for the provision of additional water in the Olifants catchment, this need was overstated and the resulting overestimation caused the scale and size of the dam to be larger than it could and probably should have been. Additionally, it appears that DWS‘s decision to build the De Hoop Dam themselves, rather than having it built by the private sector, may have been less than optimal. It is recommended that, in future decision-making, DWS needs to incorporate multiple alternative options into the same solution, and to ensure that decision-makers are put into a position to make informed decisions, including adequate consideration of externalities. Furthermore, DWS needs to employ decision-making models such as the RDMM to facilitate retrospective analyses to improve their institutional knowledge. Keywords: water resources management, dams, invasive alien plants, decision-making, unit reference values, rational decision-making model.