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Modeling is an important tool in watershed management. In much of the world, data needed for modeling, both for model inputs and for model evaluation, are very limited or non-existent. The overall objective of this research was to enable development of watershed management plans for agricultural dominated systems under situations where data are scarce. First, uncertainty of the SWAT model's outputs due to input parameters, specifically soils and high resolution digital elevation models, which are likely to be lacking in data-poor environments, was quantified using Monte Carlo simulation. Two sources of soil parameter values (SSURGO and STATSGO) were investigated, as well as three levels of DEM resolution (10, 30, and 90 m). Uncertainty increased as the input data became coarser for individual soil parameters. The combination of SSURGO and the 30 m DEM proved to adequately balance the level of uncertainty and the quality of input datasets. Second, methods were developed to generate appropriate soils information and DEM resolution for data-poor environments. The soils map was generated based on lithology and slope class, while the soil attributes were generated by linking surface soil texture to soils characterized in the SWAT soils database. A 30 m resolution DEM was generated by resampling a 90 m DEM, the resolution that is readily available around the world, by direct projection using a cubic convolution method. The effect of the generated DEM and soils data on model predictions was evaluated in a data-rich environment. When all soil parameters were varied at the same time, predictions based on the derived soil map were comparable to the predictions based on the SSURGO map. Finally, the methodology was tested in a data-poor watershed in Bolivia. The proposed methodologies for generating input data showed how available knowledge can be employed to generate data for modeling purposes and give the opportunity to incorporate uncertainty in the decision making process in data-poor environments. / Ph. D.

This report presents a study of the various mechanisms that may cause erosion of streambanks and the corresponding mitigation techniques used to combat them. The determination of each may depend upon a number of considerations. The source of the information comes from a variety of reports and papers, which are referenced in the text. Of all the mitigation techniques available to prevent streambank erosion, fabrics will generally offer the most cost effective method. Fabrics have had a good service record since their inception approximately 20 years ago. Further, as the technology continues to advance, it seems likely that fabric applications in this area will only increase. However, there are some concerns that need to be addressed. These include, assessment of geotextile performance in long term use under the different forces it will be subjected to, clogging potential of fabrics for various soil distributions, and the type of fabrics, woven or nonwoven, used in these applications. These factors should become more clearly defined as long term case study data becomes available. / M. Eng.

A comprehensive, distributed parameter, annual, watershed nonpoint source management system (WATNPS) was developed for land management planning. WATNPS simulates annual sediment, nitrogen (chemical and livestock organic), and phosphorus (chemical and livestock organic) yields from nonpoint sources. The system is linked to a GIS platform to reduce the input required by personnel during analysis. WATNPS predicts potential impacts of land management practices on surface water quality. Data were compiled for the Middle Fork Holston River (MFHR) drainage basin, Owl Run and Nomini Creek watersheds in Virginia. WATNPS utilizes annual screening models for the prediction of pollutant yields. Overland delivery ratio, phosphorus yield, and animal waste models were modified for use in the system. In-stream delivery ratio, and pollutant routing procedures were developed as a part of the overall system functionality. Development and calibration of individual in-stream delivery ratio parameters was performed based on single year data from Nomini Creek and Owl Run. A procedure was developed to rank individual watersheds and sites based on predicted pollutant yields during screening. Simulation results and individual watershed characteristics were used during the development of a drainage quality index (DQI). The DQI was developed using statistical analysis to link a water quality indicator to predicted yields and watershed characteristics. The DQI was developed to assess the impact of management within individual watersheds and among watersheds within a drainage basin. WATNPS was validated using observed data. During simulations WATNPS predicted sediment yields within 50% of observed values. Nutrient yields were predicted within a order of magnitude. Simulation of alternative livestock management practices in Owl Run reflected the same trends identified in the observed data. The Hutton Creek simulation was also consistent with water quality observations. A watershed ranking based on the DQI assessment was compared to one provided by local personnel to compare predicted trends to observed watershed conditions. A demonstration of WATNPS selected a single watershed based on watershed rankings. Critical sites were identified during WATNPS site assessment and BMPs were developed. Following BMP implementation the watershed was simulated to determine the impact on sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus yields. / Ph. D.

ANSWERS, an event-oriented, distributed parameter nonpoint source pollution model for simulating runoff and sediment transport was modified to develop a continuous nonpoint source model to simulate runoff, erosion, transport of dissolved and sediment-bound nutrients, and nutrient transformations. The model was developed for use by nonpoint source pollution managers to study the long-tenn effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses from agricultural watersheds. The Holtan's infiltration equation used in the original version of ANSWERS was replaced by the physically-based Green-Ampt infiltration equation. Soil evaporation and plant transpiration were modeled separately using the Ritchie equation. If soil moisture exceeds field capacity, the model computes percolation based on the degree of soil saturation. Nutrient losses include nitrate, sediment-bound and dissolved ammonium; sediment-bound TKN, and sediment-bound and dissolved phosphorus. A linear equilibrium is assumed between dissolved and sediment-bound phases of ammonium and phosphorus. Nutrient loss is assumed to occur only from the upper cm of the soil profile. The model simulates transformations and interactions between four nitrogen pools including stable organic N, active organic N, nitrate and ammonium. Transformations of nitrogen include mineralization simulated as a combination of ammonification and nitrification, denitrification, and plant uptake of ammonium and nitrate. The model maintains a dynamic equilibrium between stable and active organic N pools. / Ph. D.

AGNPS, a nonpoint source pollution model, was selected to stimulate sediment yield and chemical loadings from Owl Run watershed. The model was validated to demonstrate its applicability to Virginia Piedmont conditions. The validation was carried out by comparing simulation results with measured data including runoff, sediment yield, and nitrogen and phosphorus loadings to downstream water bodies. Statistical measures, including simple linear regression, determination of root mean square errors, and test on differences between simulated and measured data, were used in this study to evaluate errors. Results from these statistical procedures indicated that the errors between simulated and measured results are within acceptable limits. An annualization procedure was used to provide the basis for evaluating the long-term impact of various BMP’s. Critical areas in the watershed, which are responsible for majority of the pollutant loadings, were identified by the model using the annulization procedure. A FORTRAN program was developed to convery critical areas for individual events to “annualized critical areas” so that evaluations were made on long-term basis. BMPs currently installed in Owl Run watershed and several alternative BMP implementation scenarios were simulated. Their impacts on reducing pollutant loadings and their cost effectiveness were evaluated by using the AGNPS model and the annualization procedure. The current BMP scenario will eventually reduce sediment yield, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loadings by 26%, 32%, and 32% respectively. Some of the proposed scenarios can reduce these pollutant loadings by up to 59%, 66%, and 67% respectively. / Master of Science

Human communities across the globe are currently facing an epidemic of lake water quality degradation, primarily resulting from resource and land-use decisions that introduce excessive amounts of nutrients into the lake system. In many of these communities, local volunteer groups called lake associations work to protect these cherished lake resources. Lake associations and similar groups commonly respond to issues that are most prevalent in their respective watersheds including, but not limited to, algae blooms, declines in water transparency, and fish kills. Yet, there is little research on the role these groups actively or potentially play in lake governance and management. This study investigates the specific structures and strategies lake associations use to address lake water quality challenges using a comparative case analysis of two organizations: Lake Sunapee Protective Association (LSPA; Sunapee, NH) and Clean Lakes Alliance (CLA; Madison, WI). I performed a content analysis of self-published newsletters, annual reports, and news publications mentioning either lake association, and supplemented this data with semi-structured interviews of key individuals from each organization. I characterized and compared the missions, capacity, and activity of the two case studies by applying a conceptual framework as a lens through which to better understand the function these groups serve in their communities and what makes them effective. I found that, although the two groups structure themselves differently, take on distinct activity pathways, and orient themselves differently with respect to lake conservation, they have both been effective in achieving decision-making or management outcomes. This is a first step in identifying the diversity of ways community-based conservation organizations, such as lake associations, can meaningfully contribute to collaborative environmental governance processes on the local scale. / Master of Science / Around the world, people who live on lakes are dealing with significant declines in lake water quality. These declines have been linked to various land management decisions, which can introduce excess nutrients to the lake system that promote excessive algal or bacterial growth, and to the ways people choose to use the lake resource, which can introduce non-native, or invasive, plant and animal species. In many lake communities, local volunteer groups called lake associations work to protect their local lake resources. Lake associations can respond to the specific problems facing their lake and act to manage the lake resource and the land around it. Yet, there is little research on the role these groups actively or potentially play in lake management and conservation. This study investigates the specific organizational structures and strategies lake associations and similar groups use to address water quality declines in lake communities. I collected historic documentation and completed oral interviews for two case study associations, Lake Sunapee Protective Association (LSPA; Sunapee, NH) and Clean Lakes Alliance (CLA; Madison, WI), to characterize and compare their missions, organizational capacities, and activities. This analysis allows me to better understand what makes these groups effective and the functions they serve in their communities. I found that, although the two groups are structured differently and implement different strategies to achieve outcomes, they both have been effective in achieving lake management and conservation outcomes in line with their respective missions. This is a first step in identifying the diversity of ways community-based conservation organizations, such as lake associations, can meaningfully contribute to local environmental management and conservation.

Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically assume a certain degree of stationarity (constant mean, standard deviation, distribution) in hydrologic variables, the potential future impacts of climate change are excluded. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. In this way, regions most sensitive to climate change can be identified and managed appropriately. This study performed such a task by using predicted climate data that were downscaled from general circulation models (GCM) by regional climate models (RCM) to compare climate variables in the historical period of 1971-1998 to the future period of 2041-2068. The study evaluated the precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature data from five different GCM/RCM combinations: 1) CCSM/CRCM; 2) CCSM/WRFG; 3) CGCM3/CRCM; 4) CGCM3/WRFG; and 5) HadCM3/HRM3. The five datasets were then used to calculate drought indices and drive a calibrated PRMS model of the Molalla Pudding river basin in order to evaluate changes in droughts and streamflow. The predicted changes in droughts and streamflow were then evaluated with social/economic factors for twelve cities in the Molalla Pudding river basin by two different water vulnerability indices. The index values were used to determine a rank for each city that indicated its relative vulnerability to water scarcity as compared to the other cities. In this study, three out of the five datasets predicted increased precipitation (+97-115 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin and the two datasets using the CCSM GCM data predicted either no change or slightly decreased precipitation (-60 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin in 2041-2068. All datasets predicted increased minimum and maximum average temperature of +1.5°C and +1.4°C respectively, and all datasets displayed increasing trends in temperature. The drought indices predicted fewer drought events (-2.4 events) over 2041-2068 with no change in duration, and no change to the number of serious drought events over 2041-2068 but with increased durations (+1.9 months). Results from the hydrologic modeling predicted increased streamflow (+4-249 cfs) in four out of the five future datasets. Using the predicted changes in hydrologic variables and social/economic census data from 2000, two types of water vulnerability indices were calculated for the twelve cities of interest. The results suggested that cities in the western portion of the basin would be more susceptible to current and future water vulnerability due to high irrigation demands for water and high social vulnerability as determined by minority populations and higher poverty, while the small cities with less dependence on agriculture would be less vulnerable.

Degradation of rangeland resources leading to the desertification process is viewed in terms of human and climatic influences. While climatic impacts are important, resource utilization as practiced by man is the major cause of desertification. A multi-objective .decision methodology is developed here which is intended for the analysis of alternative management plans of rangeland watersheds under climatic variability. First, a system model is employed to portray the dynamics of a rangeland as it would respond to climatic changes and different grazing intensities. This approach allows for an interaction of inputs such as rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature with the state of the system which is a range condition index, and with outputs such as production and sediment yield. A simulation package is developed to implement the system model by actually using available data and providing some output values for production and sediment yield. At this stage a number of alternative management plans are identified. The information obtained from the simulation as well as other information of interest are represented by performance criteria, leading to an array of alternative versus criteria. Then, management plans need to be evaluated as they would impact the criteria. A multiobjective decision making technique is selected to perform the analysis for an identification of prefered management alternatives.

<p>Enacted in 1998, the New South African Water Act has introduced a new approach to water resource management, founded on the principle of decentralization of the management of water resources to regional and local levels and the public participation. The approach has been captured in the new National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998), which allows the establishment of Catchment Management Agencies. The overall purpose of this study was to understand the trends of public participation in the establishment of Catchment Management Agencies in South Africa, by presenting the case of the Berg Catchment Management Agency.</p>