People who live in rural areas in low-income countries not only live in poverty, they also have to deal with an extremely variable income. In the absence of a well-functioning credit market, these fluctuations can be costly for households. This study aims to provide knowledge to the cost of these fluctuations, more precisely the study aims to answer how transitory weather shocks in Kenya affect children´s cognitive ability. Where weather shocks are assumed to be aggregated shocks that temporarily change the productivity in districts. The result from the study shows that drought, which can be seen as a negative shock, decrease the cognitive ability of children 11 to 16. The effect is marginally significant at the 10 percent level. No significant effect on cognitive ability is found for children aged 6 to 10. The result for older children is robust to alternative specifications. The study does not show any conclusive evidence on different effects on how boys and girls are affected by droughts.

Identifying factors that affect the flow of mutual fund capital and betweenmutualfund types hasthe potential, among others,to relief fund management and investors from unnecessary administrative costs. This study investigated the role media reported weather shocks have on socially responsible and conventional mutual trust funds’capital flow.The study also has compared the magnitude of influence media reported weather shocks has on capital flow between socially responsible-and convectional mutualtrustfunds.It gives conclusionafter empirically studying all accessible socially responsible mutual trust fundswith relevant accessible financial data, originated, and actively traded in the Swedish financial market with the Swedish currency (Kronor) as well as taking conventional mutual trustfundswith similar maturity. And, the study result shows that media reported weather shocks has statistically significant role in the flow of capital, on bothsocially responsible-and conventional mutual funds in Sweden. It also shows that there is no significant difference in the role media reported weather shocks play between the two fundtypes. The result is concurrent with Hirshleifer & Shumway (2003)’s study which indicate that weather affecting investors mood and behavior. The result is interesting as it implicates to the psychological and emotional factorsplaying a significant role in affecting the flow of investment capital in general, in contrast to the rational economic behavior characterized by fund return and risk performance.

This dissertation consists of three chapters which as a whole address development issues in Nigeria. These chapters relate to issues on conflicts, rural labor, education, weather shocks, health, and aid. Chapter 1 studied the effects of conflicts on the labor adjustment patterns of rural households in Northern part of Nigeria. I relied on variation in the conflict incidence and employed the use of instrumental variable technique in order to identify the effect of conflict on several household labor variables. The result reveals that conflict within 20km radius of household has led to adjustment of labor away from agriculture to nonagricultural sectors. Also, it has led to substitution of household agricultural labor with hired labor. The demand pressure on hired labor was also found to have increased the wage rates of agricultural hired labor. Chapter 2 investigates the effects of conflicts, depending on the nature, on educational attainment of individuals in Nigeria. Specifically, I looked at how two forms of conflicts with different nature and perpetrators - Boko Haram insurgence and Farmers and Herders conflict – affects educational attainments in Nigeria. I employed the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) technique and found that both forms of conflict hurts completed years of education of individuals that are exposed to them. However, the magnitude of the effects of farmers and herders conflict tends to be larger than that of boko haram insurgence. Chapter 3 studies the effectiveness of World Bank aid projects in reducing the adverse effects of weather shocks on children’s health in Nigeria. The study revealed that children’s’ exposure to weather shocks in their month of birth and in utero have adverse effects on their Weight-to-age- z-score (WAZ) and height-to-age z-score (HAZ). However, the availability of aid projects within 20km radius of these children helps to reduce such negative effects of such weather shocks.

Economics

Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur l'impact des chocs climatiques sur les migrations et la sécurité alimentaire. Le premier chapitre examine les migrations induites par les chocs climatiques en Tanzanie en employant l'approche de iv provbit. Les résultats suggèrent que pour un ménage moyen, une réduction d'un pour cent du revenu agricole induite par le choc climatique augmente la probabilité de migration de 13 points de pourcentage en moyenne au cours de l'année suivante. Le deuxième chapitre tente d'établir si le climat est un déterminant du choix de la destination en cas de migration rurale-rurale. En utilisant le modèle du logit conditionnel, ce chapitre montre qu'une augmentation d'écarts de revenus entre destination et origine de I 0000 shillings tanzaniens, attribuable au climat, augmente la probabilité du choix de cette destination de 2 points de pourcentage. Le troisième chapitre s'intéresse au lien entre les chocs climatiques et la sécurité alimentaire. En utilisant les données sud-africaines, cette analyse emploie un modèle de variable instrumentale où la diversité alimentaire, une mesure de l'accès à la nourriture, est déterminée par les prix des aliments instrumentés avec un choc climatique. Les résultats suggèrent qu'une augmentation de pourcent des prix alimentaires locaux induite par un choc climatique diminue la diversité alimentaire de 2,5 pourcent. / This thesis contributes to the literature on the impact of weather shocks on migration and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. The first chapter analyses whether Tanzanian rural households engage in internal migration as a response to weather-related shocks using an iv probit model. The findings confirm that for an average household, a 1 per cent reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shock increases the probability of migration by 13 percentage points on average within the following year. The second chapter paper attempts to establish if weather acts as the determinant of destination choice in the case of rural-to-rural migration. Employing the alternative-specific conditional logit model, this paper shows that an increase in the expected income differentials between origin and destination by 10,000 Tanzanian shillings, attributable to differences in weather, increases the probability of choosing a given destination by 2 percentage points. The third chapter analyses the food access dimension of food security, and models the link between weather shocks and food security that acts specifically through food prices. Employing an instrumental variable model where household dietary diversity is determined by food prices instrumented with weather shock, this chapter shows that a 1 per cent increase in local food prices induced by a weather shock decreases the number of food items consumed by households by around 2.5 per cent.

This dissertation consists of three chapters that address two major resource challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: (i) weather shocks and (ii) limited land access for agricultural production. The first chapter looks at how weather shocks affect millet production and millet market price seasonality in Niger. In this paper, we use district-level longitudinal production and price data, along with high-resolution rainfall data to investigate the distinct impacts of positive and negative rainfall shocks on millet production and millet price seasonality in Niger. We find that a one standard deviation decrease in seasonal rainfall from historical averages is associated with declines in millet market price initially after harvest, but strong upward pressure on market prices 6 months after harvest. As a result, drought exacerbates existing price seasonality, which in turn can amplify negative impacts on households. Social protection programs need to account for potential increases in seasonal price variability in the design of programs to enhance household resilience to weather shocks. To better understand the household behavior that gives rise to the price responses observed in the first chapter, we explore weather shock impacts on household millet market participation in Niger in the second chapter. We merge a nationally representative household panel data with high-resolution spatially disaggregated rainfall data. We find that households are more likely to participate in the market as net sellers with negative rainfall shocks, but marketed quantity for net sellers decreases with negative rainfall shocks. Diversification into non-agricultural activities can mediate the impacts of negative rainfall shocks on market participation and lead to increases in volume of sales. Policies that support household involvement in the rural nonfarm economy through training and access to credit to help expand businesses may also stimulate millet market participation. In the third chapter, we use a rich dataset of 1,123 households to examine the determinants of individual household member access to groundnut fields, the predominant cash-crop in the Groundnut Basin of Senegal. The analysis also explores the implications of limited land access on groundnut productivity of young adult and female field managers. We find that young adults and females have fewer opportunities to access land compared to older and male household members. Further, we show that higher productivity may not be driving differential access to fields among older adults. Results suggest that with equal access, young adults may be as or more productive groundnut cultivators than older adults. Programs to increase young adult and female economic opportunities should focus on closing gaps in access to resources for production rather than decreasing observed production disparities. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation addresses two major challenges that small farmers face in Sub-Saharan Africa: (i) erratic changes in weather patterns and (ii) land access for agricultural production. We divide the dissertation in three chapters. The first two chapters focus on weather shocks, while the third chapter focuses on land access. In the first chapter, we discuss how low and high rainfall affect the seasonal variation of market prices for the most important staple grain (millet) in Niger (West Africa). We find that lower rainfall than usual makes households sell their millet in the post-harvest period when market prices are generally low, and makes them buy back millet in the lean season when market prices are often high. As a result, policies that aim support household resilience to climate shocks should design programs that account for potential increases in seasonal price variability. In the second chapter, we study how low rainfall levels affect Niger millet farmers' decision to sell or not sell their harvest, as well as the association between low rainfall and the quantity of millet sold and bought. We distinguish three groups of farmers: (i) net buyers who have higher millet purchases than sales, (ii) autarkic who have zero millet purchases and millet sales, and (iii) net sellers who have higher sales than purchases. Our findings show that lower rainfall increases net sellers' probability to sell their millet, whereas it decreases the quantity they sell. Our results also reveal that households who diversify their sources of income into non-agricultural activities increase millet net sales even with low rainfall levels. Policies that support household involvement in these non-agricultural activities may also stimulate millet market participation. In the third chapter, we study the factors that affect household members' access to a groundnut field in Senegal with a particular focus on young adults and females. We show that females and young adults are less likely to access a field compared to older and male household members. Our results also suggest that with equal access, young adults may be as or more productive groundnut cultivators than older adults. Programs to increase young adult and female economic opportunities should focus on closing gaps in access to resources for production.

There is near unanimous agreement in the scientific community that global mean temperatures will increase by several degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This could lead to dramatic consequences, especially for the poor in the developing world. In many countries climate change will manifest itself through reduced rainfall, greater temperature variability, a rise in sea levels, and a higher frequency of weather shocks. These effects constitute threats to people’s ability to continue to live where they are living today, and more generally to their economic security, and may lead to higher levels of migration away from areas vulnerable to climate change.While environmental change may lead to an increase in migration, in most cases it may not be feasible to identify pure environmental migrants because of the complexity of the push and pull factors involved. The aim of this dissertation is to assess the extent to which households are vulnerable today to environmental change and weather shocks in selected areas of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and in South Asia’s Sundarbans, whether households are able to cope with weather shocks and adapt to changing environmental conditions, and whether climatic conditions and weather shocks are leading to higher rates of migration. The dissertation relies in large part on the analysis of new households surveys recently implemented in areas affected by weather shocks and changing climatic conditions in seven countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. While the MENA countries are affected mostly by droughts, and to a lower extent floods, the Sundarbans in Bangladesh and India are affected by cyclones, sea water surges, and salinity intrusions. The ways in which households are affected by extreme weather events are very different in the MENA and South Asia regions. Yet as the dissertation demonstrates, while circumstances and contexts differ between the two sets of countries, many of the findings are actually similar in both regions. The first part of the dissertation provides background for the empirical work. After a review of the literature, a set of 10 questions are asked together with hypotheses to be tested. The second part of the dissertation provides the empirical results, with three chapters focusing on (1) household perceptions about their environment and the impact of weather shocks on households; (2) the coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies deployed by households; and (3) migration decisions, in most cases by individual household members. The findings from the dissertation suggest that individuals from households more seriously and negatively affected by weather shocks and changes in their environment are slightly more likely to migrate temporarily, but not permanently. This is possibly due to the cost of migration and the fact that environmental change and weather shocks may result in large losses in income and assets for vulnerable groups, making migration less affordable for them. Thus, some population groups may well be in a situation of "relative trappedness" in comparison to other households less affected by weather shocks and changes in their environment._____________La communauté scientifique est quasi unanime sur le fait que les températures mondiales moyennes devraient augmenter de plusieurs degrés Celsius d'ici la fin du siècle. Cela pourrait avoir des conséquences dramatiques pour les populations, en particulier pour les pauvres dans les pays en voie de développement. Dans de nombreux pays le changement climatique va se manifester par une diminution des précipitations, une plus grande variabilité de la température, une élévation du niveau de la mer, et une fréquence plus élevée des chocs climatiques. Ces effets constituent des menaces pour la capacité des populations de continuer à vivre là où elles vivent aujourd'hui, ce qui pourrait par conséquent entraîner des mouvements migratoires importants.Cependant, même si les chocs climatiques pourraient mener à une augmentation de la migration, dans la plupart des cas il n’est pas possible d'identifier des migrants environnementaux dits purs en raison de la complexité des facteurs influençant la migration. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif de la thèse est triple. La thèse cherche à évaluer (1) dans quelle mesure les ménages sont vulnérables aujourd'hui aux changements environnementaux et aux chocs climatiques dans certaines régions de l'Afrique du Nord, du Moyen-Orient, et de l’Asie du Sud (Sundarbans) ;(2) si les ménages sont en mesure de faire face aux chocs climatiques, et (3) si les conditions environnementales et les chocs climatiques conduisent à des taux de migration plus élevés parmi les membres des ménages les plus affectés comparativement aux ménages moins affectés. La thèse repose en partie sur une analyse de nouvelles données d’enquêtes auprès des ménages mises en œuvre dans des zones touchées par les chocs climatiques dans sept pays :l’Algérie, le Bangladesh, l’Egypte, l’Inde, le Maroc, la Syrie et le Yémen. Alors que les pays du Moyen Orient et d’Afrique du Nord sont touchés principalement par des sécheresses, et dans une moindre mesure par des inondations, la zone géographique dite des Sundarbans au Bangladesh et en Inde est touchée principalement par des cyclones.Bien que les chocs climatiques dans les deux régions soient différents, la thèse montre que les implications pour les ménages sont similaires. Les groupes vulnérables sont fortement et négativement affectés par les chocs climatiques et ils ne sont souvent pas capables de faire face et de s’adapter efficacement à ces chocs. De plus, il semble que les ménages les plus affectés n’aient pas de taux de migration permanente parmi leurs membres plus élevés que les ménages moins affectés, même si les taux de migration temporaire sont légèrement plus élevés. En ce sens, il apparait que les groupes vulnérables pourraient être en termes comparatifs pris au piège (« relative trappedness ») dans les zones vulnérables aux chocs climatiques comme d’autres études l’ont suggéré. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

La crise alimentaire de 2008 a suscité un regain d’intérêt pour les questions agricoles et de sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement. Partant du constat que près de 27% de la population d’Afrique Sub-saharienne souffre de malnutrition, cette thèse a pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension des causes complexes de l’insécurité alimentaire. Le premier chapitre étudie les mécanismes de transmission des variations du prix mondial du riz aux prix domestiques dans trois pays ouest-africain: le Sénégal, le Tchad et le Mali. Les résultats indiquent que le prix du riz importé à Dakar et le prix du riz local à Bamakorépondent de façon asymétrique aux variations du prix mondial. Le chapitre 2 teste la présence d’obstacles aux échanges agricoles entre pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre. Il ressort de l’analyse que le passage des frontières est coûteux. Toutefois, le coût associé au passage de la frontière est plus faible entre pays membre d’une même union économique et monétaire. Le chapitre 3 a pour objectif le renforcement des systèmes d’alertes précoces des crises alimentaires existants au Sahel. Il montre qu’il est possible d’anticiper les crises de prix avec six mois d’avance en analysant les mouvements passés des prix des céréales. Enfin, le chapitre 4 s’intéresse à la vulnérabilité des ménages face aux chocs pluviométriques. Il révèle que les ménages ruraux au Burkina Faso n’ont pas la capacité d’assurer ou d’absorber ces chocs climatiques. / This doctoral thesis is in line with the renewed interest in research on agriculture and food security, following the 2008 global food crisis. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the complex issues surrounding food security. The first chapter investigates whether the changes in the international price of rice are transmitted to the domestic prices of rice in Senegal, Mali and Chad. Results indicate that the domestic prices of imported rice in Dakar and of local rice in Bamako react differently to changes in the world price depending on whether the world price is rising or falling. Chapter 2 analyses by how much trade barriers at the border and transport costs impede the integration of agricultural markets in West and Central Africa. Results highlight the role played by borders in explaining price deviations between markets. Additionally, belonging to an economic union and sharingthe same currency appear as major determinants of market integration. The third chapter aims at providing new early warning indicators based on food prices in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Our analysis reveals that price crisis can be predicted about 6 months in advance through the observation of past price movements. Chapter 4 focuses on the analysis of children’s vulnerability to climate shocks in Burkina Faso. By combining health data originating from a 2008 household survey with meteorological data, we show the importance of weather conditions in prenatal period and in the first year of life on the future nutritional status of the children.