The relaxation of international boundaries has enabled the globalisation of markets making available an ever increasing number of specialised suppliers and markets. Inevitably this results in supply chains sharing suppliers and customers reflected in a network of relationships. Within this context firms buyers configure their supply relationships based on their perception of supply risk. Risk is managed by either increasing trust or commitment or by increasing the number of suppliers. Increasing trust and commitment facilitates collaboration and reduces the propensity for a supplier to exit the relationship. Conversely, increasing the number of suppliers reduces dependency and increases the ease of making alternative supply arrangements. The emergent network of relationships is dynamic and complex, and due in no small part to the influence of inventory management practices, tightly coupled. This critical organization of the network describes a system that contrary to existing supply chain conceptualisation exists far from equilibrium, requiring a different more appropriate theoretical lens through which to view them. This thesis adopts a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) perspective to position supply networks as tightly coupled complex systems which according to Normal Accident Theory (NAT) are vulnerable to disruptions as a consequence of normal operations. The consequential boundless and emergent nature of supply networks makes them difficult to research using traditional empirical methods, instead this research builds a generalised supply network agent based computer model, allowing network constituents (agents) to take autonomous parallel action reflecting the true emergent nature of supply networks. This thesis uses the results from a series of carefully designed computer experiments to elucidate how supply networks respond to a variety of market structures and permitted agent behaviours. Market structures define the vertical (between tier) and horizontal (within tier) levels of price differentiation. Within each structure agents are permitted to autonomously modify their prices (constrained by market structure) and collaborate by sharing demand information. By examining how supply networks respond to different permitted agent behaviours in a range of market structures this thesis makes 4 contributions. Firstly, it extends NAT by incorporating the adaptive nature of supply network constituents. Secondly it extends supply chain management by specifying supply networks as dynamic not static phenomena. Thirdly it extends supply chain risk management through developing an understanding of the impact different permitted behaviour combinations on the networks vulnerability to disruptions in the context of normal operations. Finally by developing the understanding how normal operations impact a supply networks vulnerability to disruptions it informs the practice of supply chain risk management.

Introduction/ Objectives: Stroke, the third leading cause of death in Canada, is projected to rise in the next 20 years as the population ages and obesity rates increase. Family caregivers fulfill pertinent roles in providing support for family members who have survived a stroke, from onset to re-integration into the community. However, the transition from rehabilitation to home is a crucial transition for both the stroke survivor and family caregiver. As the stroke survivor transitions home from a rehabilitation facility, family caregivers provide different types of support, including assistance with navigating the stroke rehabilitation system. They also are a constant source of support for the stroke survivor providing them with continuity during the transition. In this exploratory study we examined family caregivers’ perceptions and experiences navigating the stroke rehabilitation system. The theories of continuity care and complex adaptive systems were used to examine the transition home from hospital or stroke rehabilitation facility, and in some cases back to hospital. Methodology: Family caregivers (n=14) who provide care for a stroke survivor were recruited 4-12 weeks following the patient’s discharge from a stroke rehabilitation facility. Interviews were conducted with family caregivers to examine their perceptions and experiences navigating the stroke rehabilitation system. Directed content analysis was used to explore the perceptions of family caregivers as they reflected on the transitions home. The theories of continuity of care and complex adaptive systems were used to interpret their experiences. Results/Conclusions: During the transition home from a rehabilitation facility, family caregivers are a constant source of support, providing the stroke survivor with continuity. Emergent themes highlight the importance of the caregiving role, and barriers and facilitators that impact the role, and influence continuity of care. Also, supports and services in the community were limited or did not meet the specific needs of the family caregiver. The acknowledgment of the unique attributes of each case will ensure supports and services are tailored to the family caregiver’s needs. Mitigation of systemic barriers would also decrease complexity experienced at the micro-level in the stroke rehabilitation system, and better support the family caregiver during the transition home from a stroke rehabilitation facility.

Self-adaptive and self-managing systems optimize their own behaviour according to high-level objectives and constraints. One way for human administrators to effectively specify goals for such optimization problems is using policies. Over the past decade, researchers produced various approaches, models and techniques for policy specification in different areas including distributed systems, communication networks, web services, autonomic computing, and cloud computing. Research challenges range from characterizing policies for ease of specification in particular application domains to categorizing policies for achieving good solution qualities for particular algorithmic techniques. The contributions of this thesis are threefold. Firstly, we give a mathematical formulation for each of the three policy types, action, goal and utility function policies, introduced in the policy framework by Kephart and Walsh. In particular, we introduce a first precise characterization of goal policies for optimization problems. Secondly, this thesis introduces a mathematical framework that adds structure to the underlying optimization problem for different types of policies. Structure is added either to the objective function or the constraints of the optimization problem. These mathematical structures, imposed on the underlying problem, progressively increase the quality of the solutions obtained when using the greedy optimization technique. Thirdly, we show the applicability of our framework through case studies by analyzing several optimization problems encountered in self-adaptive and self-managing systems, such as resource allocation, quality of service management, and Service Level Agreement (SLA) profit optimization to provide quality guarantees for their solutions. Our approach combines the algorithmic results by Edmonds, Fisher et al., and Mestre, and the policy framework of Kephart and Walsh. Our characterization and approach will help designers of self-adaptive and self-managing systems formulate optimization problems, decide on algorithmic strategies based on policy requirements, and reason about solution qualities. / Graduate / 0984

The purpose of this research is to examine how professionals and civil society members engage in food security activities that include food safety precautions and how they work across differences to support a safe and accessible food supply. The objectives are: (a) to explore tensions between those working in community food security and food safety (regulatory authority) and the source of tension; (b) to explore how people experiencing these tensions can improve the way they work together; and (c) to explore potential opportunities for enhancing health equity through food security and food safety programs. Using a case study design, I employ concept mapping and situational analysis as methods, with a complexity science framework. I have illustrated the complex motives behind food safety regulations and examined the neo-liberal agenda favouring market forces over health equity. I have argued that while there is concern for protecting the public’s health, food safety regulations are not set with a primary focus on protecting people from unsafe food, but are a vehicle for providing confidence in the market and among international trading partners, at the cost of health and welfare of small-scale producers in rural and remote communities. I am suggesting change not only in how we view and understand personal motives or worldviews of food and market forces, but also a shift on a larger scale, to change structural conditions to promote health and to encourage a moral obligation to reduce health inequities. / Graduate / 0573 / 0569 / wmartin@uvic.ca

Context is important to today's mobile and ubiquitous systems as operational requirements are only valid under certain context conditions. Detecting context and adapting automatically to that context is a key feature of many of these systems. However, when the operational context associated with a particular requirement changes drastically in a way that designers could not have anticipated, many systems are unable to effectively adapt their operating parameters to continue meeting user needs. Automatically detecting and implementing this system context evolution is highly desirable because it allows for increased uncertainty to be built into the system at design time in order to efficiently and effectively cope with these kinds of drastic changes. This thesis is an empirical investigation and discussion towards integrating data mining algorithms into self-adaptive systems to analyze and de fine new context relevant to specific system requirements when current system context parameters are no longer sufficient. / Graduate / 0984 / arook@uvic.ca

Workflow management is widely accepted as a core technology to support long-term business processes in heterogeneous and distributed environments. However, conventional workflow management systems do not provide sufficient flexibility support to cope with the broad range of failure situations that may occur during workflow execution. In particular, most systems do not allow to dynamically adapt a workflow due to a failure situation, e.g., to dynamically drop or insert execution steps. As a contribution to overcome these limitations, this dissertation introduces the agent-based workflow management system AgentWork. AgentWork supports the definition, the execution and, as its main contribution, the event-oriented and semi-automated dynamic adaptation of workflows. Two strategies for automatic workflow adaptation are provided. Predictive adaptation adapts workflow parts affected by a failure in advance (predictively), typically as soon as the failure is detected. This is advantageous in many situations and gives enough time to meet organizational constraints for adapted workflow parts. Reactive adaptation is typically performed when predictive adaptation is not possible. In this case, adaptation is performed when the affected workflow part is to be executed, e.g., before an activity is executed it is checked whether it is subject to a workflow adaptation such as dropping, postponement or replacement. In particular, the following contributions are provided by AgentWork: A Formal Model for Workflow Definition, Execution, and Estimation: In this context, AgentWork first provides an object-oriented workflow definition language. This language allows for the definition of a workflow’s control and data flow. Furthermore, a workflow’s cooperation with other workflows or workflow systems can be specified. Second, AgentWork provides a precise workflow execution model. This is necessary, as a running workflow usually is a complex collection of concurrent activities and data flow processes, and as failure situations and dynamic adaptations affect running workflows. Furthermore, mechanisms for the estimation of a workflow’s future execution behavior are provided. These mechanisms are of particular importance for predictive adaptation. Mechanisms for Determining and Processing Failure Events and Failure Actions: AgentWork provides mechanisms to decide whether an event constitutes a failure situation and what has to be done to cope with this failure. This is formally achieved by evaluating event-condition-action rules where the event-condition part describes under which condition an event has to be viewed as a failure event. The action part represents the necessary actions needed to cope with the failure. To support the temporal dimension of events and actions, this dissertation provides a novel event-condition-action model based on a temporal object-oriented logic. Mechanisms for the Adaptation of Affected Workflows: In case of failure situations it has to be decided how an affected workflow has to be dynamically adapted on the node and edge level. AgentWork provides a novel approach that combines the two principal strategies reactive adaptation and predictive adaptation. Depending on the context of the failure, the appropriate strategy is selected. Furthermore, control flow adaptation operators are provided which translate failure actions into structural control flow adaptations. Data flow operators adapt the data flow after a control flow adaptation, if necessary. Mechanisms for the Handling of Inter-Workflow Implications of Failure Situations: AgentWork provides novel mechanisms to decide whether a failure situation occurring to a workflow affects other workflows that communicate and cooperate with this workflow. In particular, AgentWork derives the temporal implications of a dynamic adaptation by estimating the duration that will be needed to process the changed workflow definition (in comparison with the original definition). Furthermore, qualitative implications of the dynamic change are determined. For this purpose, so-called quality measuring objects are introduced. All mechanisms provided by AgentWork include that users may interact during the failure handling process. In particular, the user has the possibility to reject or modify suggested workflow adaptations. A Prototypical Implementation: Finally, a prototypical Corba-based implementation of AgentWork is described. This implementation supports the integration of AgentWork into the distributed and heterogeneous environments of real-world organizations such as hospitals or insurance business enterprises.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / The thesis explores the complexities of primary health care in a setting characterised as being both isolated and remote, and in the process identifies factors critical for developing successful PHC programs in such settings and more broadly. The four questions underpinning the study are 1) is a PHC approach relevant to the chosen small remote Australian community; 2) to what extent was a PHC approach being implemented; 3) what are the barriers and enablers to developing and implementing a PHC approach; and 4) what are the crucial factors for PHC programs in similar communities. The first chapter provides the background to the study, beginning with the range of descriptions of primary health care and the many themes needed to understand how it plays out in a small community. The Menindee community and some of the local health service players are introduced. Chapter Two explores complexity theory and complex adaptive systems and its relevance to organisations and managing change, particularly in complex environments. Chapter Three examines the evolution of primary health care, its philosophy, principles and elements as both a model of health care and of development. Chapter Four addresses social determinants, the life course and the long-term effects of inequity, before considering current factors that impact on health and health services. These include the beginning and end of the life course and those in the ‘middle’ where the effects of the obesity and diabetes epidemics are being played out at a younger age. The chapter concludes by noting common themes across the three chapters. Chapter Five describes the research design and methods. A case study using mixed methods was chosen and the theoretical framework provides an exploration of complexity and transdisciplinarity. What changed during the course of the study, questions of scope and its limitations are stated. Chapter Six is a quantitative analysis of the study community, which examines community demographics, the life course, a summary of adult and child health, and service use. These enable an understanding of the community profile, its uniqueness and its similarity to other communities that might benefit from a comprehensive PHC approach. The questions to be explored in the qualitative phase are identified. Chapter Seven is a qualitative study of the community in the midst of change. An individual interview guide approach was used and representatives from the community, local and regional health service providers were interviewed. Chapter Eight provides a synthesis of the two studies as they address themes from the complexity, PHC and social inequity literature. Five themes had particular significance to the study community: social determinants and Indigenous health; community size, resilience and change; chronic disease programs and prevention; vulnerable groups; and a complex adaptive systems perspective. The second section answers the four study questions. The thesis concludes with a discussion of PHC rhetoric and reality, the relevance of the study and its limitations, and issues requiring further research when considering primary health care in smaller communities.

This thesis analyses the potential of a complex adaptive systems (CASs) approach based on system dynamics modelling (SDM) to add value to the currently used assessment tools and monitoring practices for tourism sustainability in an effort to advance sustainable development in tourism destinations. While many different concepts and tools for the assessment of sustainability have developed, most of them do not take the complexity and dynamics of tourism destinations into account. It is argued in this thesis that these linear tools need to be complemented with new approaches that can deal with uncertainty, non-linearity and unexpected changes. New knowledge from ecosystem research, which is derived from complex systems theory, suggests that tourism destinations are indeed social-ecological systems, which need to be viewed and studied as CASs. In recent years tourism researchers have acknowledged the necessity to view tourism as a system with interconnected elements, and have discussed the unpredictability of these tourism systems. CASs approaches, which have been successfully applied by ecologists and economists in other areas, are indicated for tourism management, but have been rarely used in order to promote sustainable tourism development and planning. Appropriate methodologies and frameworks for the implementation of CASs approaches into the tourism context are still lacking. Therefore this thesis addresses the aforementioned challenges as follows: • A critical review of the concepts and tools currently used for the advancement and assessment of sustainability in tourism destinations is presented. The review evaluates the suitability of assessment tools for specific sites and situations, and develops guidelines for tool selection. It is concluded that for particular purposes linear assessment tools need to be combined or complemented with tools that can deal with complexity and dynamics. Tools covered include sustainability indicators, environmental impact assessment, life cycle assessment, environmental audits, ecological footprints, multi-criteria analysis and adaptive environmental assessment. • The use of sustainability indicator as one of the most promoted assessment tools for sustainable development in tourism destination is explored further. A systemic indicator system (SIS) methodology based on a CASs approach as an alternative to linear assessments is developed. This methodology is tested using a case study of a holiday eco-village near Lamington National Park in Queensland. The research findings suggest that the SIS has the potential to enhance system understanding and adaptive management of tourism destinations, and can foster collective learning processes amongst stakeholders. • A framework is developed for a Learning Tourism Destination (LTD) based on the concept of the Learning Organisation, and using SDM as a tool for strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. The concept of the LTD is discussed on the basis of 6 case studies, where SDM has been applied primarily for predictive reasons, and through evaluation of the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is argued that the effectiveness of SDM may be greatly increased through incorporation in the foundation of an LTD. • A practical approach for the implementation of an LTD is presented. Preliminary results from a case study undertaken at the Ningaloo Coast in Western Australia are discussed. Surveys were conducted to verify if the LTD forms a useful framework for fostering consensus building, dialogue and collective learning processes amongst stakeholders. The preliminary results of the study suggest that the implementation of an LTD on the Ningaloo Coast will improve the capacity of the local industry to take more responsibility for the sustainable development, and thus has the potential to enable a more effective transition to sustainability in the region. Through its multi-methodological approach, this thesis demonstrates the importance of considering tourism destinations as CASs. New concepts and assessment tools for sustainable tourism are needed that acknowledge the complex and dynamic nature of tourism and tourism development. Together, the SIS methodology and the LTD framework provide an initial platform from which to conduct further research.

This thesis analyses the potential of a complex adaptive systems (CASs) approach based on system dynamics modelling (SDM) to add value to the currently used assessment tools and monitoring practices for tourism sustainability in an effort to advance sustainable development in tourism destinations. While many different concepts and tools for the assessment of sustainability have developed, most of them do not take the complexity and dynamics of tourism destinations into account. It is argued in this thesis that these linear tools need to be complemented with new approaches that can deal with uncertainty, non-linearity and unexpected changes. New knowledge from ecosystem research, which is derived from complex systems theory, suggests that tourism destinations are indeed social-ecological systems, which need to be viewed and studied as CASs. In recent years tourism researchers have acknowledged the necessity to view tourism as a system with interconnected elements, and have discussed the unpredictability of these tourism systems. CASs approaches, which have been successfully applied by ecologists and economists in other areas, are indicated for tourism management, but have been rarely used in order to promote sustainable tourism development and planning. Appropriate methodologies and frameworks for the implementation of CASs approaches into the tourism context are still lacking. Therefore this thesis addresses the aforementioned challenges as follows: • A critical review of the concepts and tools currently used for the advancement and assessment of sustainability in tourism destinations is presented. The review evaluates the suitability of assessment tools for specific sites and situations, and develops guidelines for tool selection. It is concluded that for particular purposes linear assessment tools need to be combined or complemented with tools that can deal with complexity and dynamics. Tools covered include sustainability indicators, environmental impact assessment, life cycle assessment, environmental audits, ecological footprints, multi-criteria analysis and adaptive environmental assessment. • The use of sustainability indicator as one of the most promoted assessment tools for sustainable development in tourism destination is explored further. A systemic indicator system (SIS) methodology based on a CASs approach as an alternative to linear assessments is developed. This methodology is tested using a case study of a holiday eco-village near Lamington National Park in Queensland. The research findings suggest that the SIS has the potential to enhance system understanding and adaptive management of tourism destinations, and can foster collective learning processes amongst stakeholders. • A framework is developed for a Learning Tourism Destination (LTD) based on the concept of the Learning Organisation, and using SDM as a tool for strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. The concept of the LTD is discussed on the basis of 6 case studies, where SDM has been applied primarily for predictive reasons, and through evaluation of the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is argued that the effectiveness of SDM may be greatly increased through incorporation in the foundation of an LTD. • A practical approach for the implementation of an LTD is presented. Preliminary results from a case study undertaken at the Ningaloo Coast in Western Australia are discussed. Surveys were conducted to verify if the LTD forms a useful framework for fostering consensus building, dialogue and collective learning processes amongst stakeholders. The preliminary results of the study suggest that the implementation of an LTD on the Ningaloo Coast will improve the capacity of the local industry to take more responsibility for the sustainable development, and thus has the potential to enable a more effective transition to sustainability in the region. Through its multi-methodological approach, this thesis demonstrates the importance of considering tourism destinations as CASs. New concepts and assessment tools for sustainable tourism are needed that acknowledge the complex and dynamic nature of tourism and tourism development. Together, the SIS methodology and the LTD framework provide an initial platform from which to conduct further research.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / The thesis explores the complexities of primary health care in a setting characterised as being both isolated and remote, and in the process identifies factors critical for developing successful PHC programs in such settings and more broadly. The four questions underpinning the study are 1) is a PHC approach relevant to the chosen small remote Australian community; 2) to what extent was a PHC approach being implemented; 3) what are the barriers and enablers to developing and implementing a PHC approach; and 4) what are the crucial factors for PHC programs in similar communities. The first chapter provides the background to the study, beginning with the range of descriptions of primary health care and the many themes needed to understand how it plays out in a small community. The Menindee community and some of the local health service players are introduced. Chapter Two explores complexity theory and complex adaptive systems and its relevance to organisations and managing change, particularly in complex environments. Chapter Three examines the evolution of primary health care, its philosophy, principles and elements as both a model of health care and of development. Chapter Four addresses social determinants, the life course and the long-term effects of inequity, before considering current factors that impact on health and health services. These include the beginning and end of the life course and those in the ‘middle’ where the effects of the obesity and diabetes epidemics are being played out at a younger age. The chapter concludes by noting common themes across the three chapters. Chapter Five describes the research design and methods. A case study using mixed methods was chosen and the theoretical framework provides an exploration of complexity and transdisciplinarity. What changed during the course of the study, questions of scope and its limitations are stated. Chapter Six is a quantitative analysis of the study community, which examines community demographics, the life course, a summary of adult and child health, and service use. These enable an understanding of the community profile, its uniqueness and its similarity to other communities that might benefit from a comprehensive PHC approach. The questions to be explored in the qualitative phase are identified. Chapter Seven is a qualitative study of the community in the midst of change. An individual interview guide approach was used and representatives from the community, local and regional health service providers were interviewed. Chapter Eight provides a synthesis of the two studies as they address themes from the complexity, PHC and social inequity literature. Five themes had particular significance to the study community: social determinants and Indigenous health; community size, resilience and change; chronic disease programs and prevention; vulnerable groups; and a complex adaptive systems perspective. The second section answers the four study questions. The thesis concludes with a discussion of PHC rhetoric and reality, the relevance of the study and its limitations, and issues requiring further research when considering primary health care in smaller communities.