Among the various adverse effects of climate change, sea-level rise is expected to increase the severity and frequency of flooding events impacting the vulnerable, low-lying islands of French Polynesia. It has long been understood that sea-level changes are not spatially uniform, yet this aspect is not taken into account in the decision-making. Notably, no projections of future sea level have been produced specifically for this region so far, partly because the processes driving sea-level changes remain poorly constrained. To approach the issue, we present a detailed reconstruction of sea-level changes for the mid-to-late Holocene, based on the observation of coral proxies. This dataset is then used to calibrate a sea-level model in order to estimate the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to regional sea-level changes and to infer past variations in global ice volume. Building upon this baseline and exploiting recent outputs of climate models, we project that in a “worst-case” scenario, sea level would rise 1.05 meters by 2100 in French Polynesia, exceeding the value adopted in the French adaptation strategy by 0.45 meters. We conclude that spatial variability of sea-level rise should be considered in future risk studies for this and other regions.

La maitrise de la résistance bactérienne et l’utilisation prudente des antibiotiques à l’hôpital constituent des enjeux majeurs pour les autorités de santé dans tous les pays européens. Toutefois, les connaissances en matière de consommation des antibiotiques et de politique de bon usage des antibiotiques dans les établissements sont limitées. Dans ce contexte, le travail de cette thèse permet de donner une meilleure vision de la consommation des antibiotiques dans les pays européens à partir des données de surveillance disponibles. Il apporte également des cibles d’amélioration de la prescription des antibiotiques et identifie plusieurs indicateurs de qualité pour mener à bien une politique de bon usage des antibiotiques. De plus, ce travail utilise le modèle des hôpitaux français pour identifier des critères d’ajustement de la consommation des antibiotiques facilement disponibles qui sont essentiels à mettre en œuvre pour établir des comparaisons entre les différents hôpitaux. Il s’intéresse également à la relation entre la politique de bon usage des antibiotiques dans les hôpitaux et une moindre consommation des antibiotiques. En conclusion, les données de surveillance de la consommation des antibiotiques ont donc permis de répondre à plusieurs hypothèses de recherche et de dégager de nouveaux axes de réflexions. / The control of bacterial resistance and the prudent use of antibiotics in hospitals are major challenges for health authorities in all European countries. However, little is known regarding antibiotic consumption and antibiotic policies in hospitals. In this context, this thesis provides insight into the antibiotic consumption using available survey databases. It also identifies targets for quality improvement and several quality indicators which are essencial to carry out a prudent use antibiotic policy. Moreover, the model of French hospitals was used to explore easily available adjustment criteria for the antibiotic consumption which are crucial to implement comparisons between different types of hospitals. This work brings light onto the relationship between the antibiotic policy and a low level of antibiotic use in French hospitals. In conclusion, survey databases have enabled us to answer several research assumptions and to generate new horizons of reflection.

[pt] A tese Filtros ótimos que conservam qualquer ordem de tendência aborda os fundamentos dos filtros simétricos de Henderson que estão inseridos no contexto de ajuste sazonal, mais especificamente nos métodos da família X11; desenvolve um filtro ótimo, baseado em técnicas do domínio da freqüência, utilizando hipóteses mais amplas que os filtros de Henderson; compara a performance dos dois filtros e propõe um método de ajuste sazonal baseado no filtro ótimo. / [en] The thesis Filtros ótimos que conservam qualquer ordem de tendência (Optimal Filters that Preserve Trend of Any Order), investigates the principles of the Henderson symmetric filters, which are inserted in the context of seasonal adjustment, specifically in the methods of the X11 family; it also develops optimal filters, based on techniques in the Frequency domain, using more general hypothesis than the ones for the Henderson filters; and compares the performance of the both filters and suggests a method of seasonal adjustment based on the optimal filter.

Innovations in computer game interfaces continue to enhance the experience of players. Affective games - those that adapt or incorporate a player’s emotional state - have shown promise in creating exciting and engaging user experiences. However, a dearth of systematic exploration into what types of game elements should adapt to affective state leaves game designers with little guidance on how to incorporate affect into their games. We created an affective game engine, using it to deploy a design probe into how adapting the player’s abilities, the enemy’s abilities, or variables in the environment affects player performance and experience. Our results suggest that affectively adapting games can increase player arousal. Furthermore, we suggest that reducing challenge by adapting non-player characters is a worse design choice than giving players the tools that they need (through enhancing player abilities or a supportive environment) to master greater challenges.

[pt] Esta tese tem como objetivo a comparação entre procedimentos para dessazonalização de séries temporais. As metodologias usadas serão a de Modelos Estruturais Clássicos e Bayesianos e a metodologia padrão de dessazonalização X11 ARIMA. Os dados utilizados são as 35 séries reais de índice de preços ao consumidor - IPC para a Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, fornecidas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Pesquisa - IBGE, no período de janeiro de 1991 até dezembro de 1997. Os pacotes computacionais utilizados no decorrer do trabalho são FORECAST PRO (X11 ARIMA0, STAMP (Estruturais Clássicos) e BATS (Estruturais Bayesianos). Além disso, foram também utilizadas séries simuladas com sazonalidade, para melhor analisar os resultados desejados. / [en] The aim of this thesis is a comparisson study among three existing procedures for seasonal adjustment of time series, namely: the tradicional X11 ARIMA and those based on the structural model formulation, i.e., the classical approach of A. Harvey and the Bayesian counterpart of Harrison and Stevens. The data used are 25 real time series of Consumer Price Index for Metropolitan area from Rio de Janeiro from 1991 to 1997, supllied by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE. The computacional packages used during the thesis were SPSS and FORECAST PRO (X11 ARIMA), STAMP (structural classical approach) and BATS (structural bayesian approach). Also, simulated seasonal data were to provide a better understanding of the procedures.

No description available.

This presented dissertation is focused to clarify the problems of recievebles and its relation with income tax in term of formation, limitation, creation adjustement receivebles and one-time depreciation in Kodak Czech company. In first part of my dissertation I have aimed to problem of recievebles in term of its formation and methods of securing. In theoretical part I was concerned with relation of adjustement receivables i from both accounting and taxing point of view and also receivables depreciation. In practical part of my dissertation I was studying receivables after due date in particular company. This part contains methods of managing and solution of receivables after due date. In this part I have also introduced a new system preventing from creation of demands after due date {--} credit system. Last part was focused on receivables after due date and its impact on lowering of tax duty. Main targets were focused on calculation part of demands in term of creation of rectifying and tax items and its depreciation. In conclusion I have summrized the results of my analysis and came up with new ways of demand securing for the company.

Le véhicule est un système dynamique complexe, composé de différents sous-systèmes de nature différente (moteur, système de freinage, suspension ...). Chaque sous-système est décrit par un modèle mathématique dépendant d’un nombre important de paramètres, très souvent incertains (méconnaissance, manque de mesures,…). L’incertitude sur les paramètres se propage à travers le modèle et se retrouve sur la sortie. Cette dernière représente les forces et moments mis en jeu dans le véhicule. L’incertitude sur la sortie n’est pas toujours tolérable pour des raisons de sécurité, précision,…Situé dans ce contexte, les travaux de la thèse consistent à proposer des méthodes d’analyse de sensibilité permettant de déterminer les paramètres dont les incertitudes ont un effet significatif sur le comportement d’un système donné, en particulier le véhicule. Dans une première partie, le cas des modèles à paramètres dépendants et suivant une distribution arbitraire est étudié. Une méthode, basée sur la décorrélation des paramètres par la décomposition de Cholesky, a été proposée. Pour résoudre le problème de la distribution arbitraire, l’approximation par polynôme du chaos arbitraire est adoptée, en construisant une base orthonormale en termes de moments statistiques non centrés des paramètres. Les indices de sensibilité, permettant de quantifier la contribution de chaque paramètre à la variance de la sortie, sont obtenus directement à partir des coefficients des polynômes du chaos ainsi obtenus. La méthode proposée est appliquée et validée sur un modèle de pneumatique. Dans la deuxième partie, le cas des modèles dynamiques est traité. Une méthode basée sur les dérivées partielles est explorée, puis une approche alternative est proposée. Elle utilise de façon originale des outils de l’Automatique, les grammiens d’atteignabilité et d’observabilité. L’influence des paramètres sur l’énergie consommée en entrée et restituée par le système en sortie est ainsi déterminée. L’avantage de cette technique est que les paramètres peuvent être classifiés selon leurs influences sur l’énergie consommée ou restituée, tout au long de la dynamique du système. D’autre part, l’étude de la sensibilité des paramètres sur les échanges de l’énergie, permet de déterminer un placement optimal des paramètres pour une optimisation de l’énergie consommée et restituée en sortie. Les deux méthodes proposées sont appliquées et validées sur un modèle bicyclette décrivant le comportement dynamique d’un véhicule. Dans la dernière partie, des tests sur véhicule d’essais ont été réalisés sur circuit. Les différentes approches d’analyse de sensibilité ont été appliquées sur les résultats d’essais, afin de recaler des modèles de pneumatique. / The vehicle is a complex dynamic system, composed of various subsystems of different kind (engine, braking system, suspension, etc.). Each subsystem is described by a mathematical model depending on a significant number of parameters, very often uncertain (unknown, lack of measures, etc.). The uncertainty on the parameters is propagated through the model and takes place on the model output. The model output represents the forces and moments involved in the vehicle. The uncertainty on the model output is not always tolerable for safety reasons, precision, etc. In this context, the aim of the thesis is to propose sensitivity analysis methods allowing to determine parameters whose uncertainties have a significant effect on the behavior of a given system. In the first part, the case of models with dependent parameters which follow an arbitrary distribution is studied. A method based on the decorrelation of the parameters using the decomposition of Cholesky, is proposed. To solve the problem of the arbitrary distribution, an approximation using arbitrary polynomial chaos is adopted and an orthonormal data basis is constructed in terms of non central statistical moments of parameters. Sensitivity indices, allowing to quantify the contribution of every parameter to the model output variance, is directly obtained from the polynomial chaos coefficients.The proposed method is applied and validated on a tyre model. In the second part, the case of the dynamic models is studied. A method based on partial derivative is explored. Then a new alternative approach is proposed. This method uses in an original way the control theory tools, the reachability and observability Gramians. The influence of the parameters is formulated in terms the energy consumed and restored by the system. The advantage of this technique is that the parameters can be classified according to their influences on the consumed or restored energy throughout the system dynamics. On the other hand, the study of the parameters sensitivity based on ratio energy exchanged, allows to determine an optimal placement of the parameters for an optimization of consumed and/or restored energy. Both proposed methods are applied and validated using bicycle model describing vehicle dynamic behavior. Finally, the various sensitivity approaches are applied to adjust tyre model parameters using vehicle measurements acquired during a steady-state maneuver.

Aujourd’hui, une entreprise ne peut, à elle seule, satisfaire les exigences de ses clients. Elle a besoin de s'appuyer sur les acteurs de sa Supply Chain : ses fournisseurs, les fournisseurs de ses fournisseurs et les distributeurs. Dans ce cadre, la littérature met en évidence la prédisposition des acteurs à aligner leurs comportements et à opter pour un comportement global intégrant les caractéristiques physiques, informationnelles, managériales, etc. L’objet de cette recherche est de comprendre par quels dispositifs de coordination ce postulat se réalise. Parallèlement, ces dispositifs de coordination (le contrat, la confiance, le pouvoir ou encore l’opportunisme), qui trouvent généralement leur substance dans les relations interpersonnelles, alimentent une littérature qui a tendance à laisser penser que l’idée d’un alignement de comportement n’est pas soutenable dans les relations inter-firmes. Pour comprendre la relation inter-firmes et les dispositifs mis en place au sein de la Supply Chain Automobile, nous avons exploré une revue de littérature sur la firme, la relation inter-firmes, les différents regards portés sur la coordination inter-firmes et la place accordée à chaque dispositif de coordination. Nous avons également exposé la spécificité du concept SCM et plus largement le concept Supply Chain. Par la suite, une étude de cas, inscrite dans une démarche compréhensive au sens du Dumez (2014), a constitué la phase empirique de notre recherche. La confrontation du matériau théorique au matériau empirique a fait émerger trois idéaux-types de relations (Collaboration, Coordination et Transaction) dont des dispositifs changent d’un type à l’autre et selon que l’on se place en amont ou en aval. Ainsi, peut-on trouver dans le même idéaltype, et chez les mêmes acteurs, des dispositifs ascendants (envers les clients) et descendants (envers les fournisseurs). Cette recherche a appuyé les travaux sur le rôle décisif du leadership, d’une part dans la construction de la relation de collaboration avec ses fournisseurs, et d’autre part sur l’impact qu’il exerce sur la définition des dispositifs de relation. Elle a également montré que la place de la culture dans les relations inter-firmes n’est pas uniforme, mais change en fonction de la solidité du système organisationnel de l’entreprise. Enfin, cette recherche montre la corrélation entre la construction du système organisationnel des entreprises au sein de chaque idéaltype et les cinq principaux facteurs, à savoir, la spécificité de l’actif, la technicité du produit, le temps, la qualité et le prix. / Nowadays, a firm cannot meet its customers' requirements alone. It needs to rely on its Supply Chain : its providers, the providers of its providers, and the distributors.In this framework, the literature highlights the actors’ proneness to align their behaviors and to opt for a global behavior that integrates physical, informational and managerial characteristics. The purpose of this research is to understand by which coordination instruments does this postulate is carried out? On the other hand, these coordination instruments (contract, trust, power or opportunism), which often find their substance in the interpersonal relationships, feed a literature that tends to let one think that the idea of a behavioral alignment is not bearable in the interfirm relationships.To understand the interfirm relationships and its instruments in the automotive supply chain, we have explored a literature review on the firm, the interfirm relationships and the place granted to each coordination instrument. We also showed the specificity of the SCM concept, and more widely the Supply Chain concept. Then, a case study registered in a comprehensive approach, in Dumez sense (2014), constituted the empirical phases of our research. The confrontation of the theoretical material with the empirical material brought three ideal types of relationships to the foreground (Collaboration, Coordination and Transactional), whose instruments change from one to another, and differ if we are upstream or downstream. Within the same idealtype, and the same actors, there are ascendants (towards the customers) or descendants (towards the providers) instruments. This research has rested on the works on the leadership decisive role, on one hand in the building of a collaborative relationship with the providers and, on the other hand, its impact on the definition of the relationship measure. It also demonstrated that the place of the culture in the interfirm relationships is not always the same, but changes depending on the organizational system of the firm. Finally, this research shows the correlation between the organizational system building of the firms within each idealtype, and the five following main factors : the asset specificity, the product technicality, the time, the quality and the price.

Submitted by Paola Figueiredo (pfercolin@gmail.com) on 2018-01-21T23:02:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_MPGPP_FGV_MunCruzeiroReceitas_2017.pdf: 2713402 bytes, checksum: a2dc7510e4407acf529bceaceddd4ea3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br) on 2018-01-22T15:32:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_MPGPP_FGV_MunCruzeiroReceitas_2017.pdf: 2713402 bytes, checksum: a2dc7510e4407acf529bceaceddd4ea3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-23T12:10:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_MPGPP_FGV_MunCruzeiroReceitas_2017.pdf: 2713402 bytes, checksum: a2dc7510e4407acf529bceaceddd4ea3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-15 / A gestão fiscal de qualquer ente federativo, seja ele a União ou os governos subnacionais, é essencial para que se possa mantê-los em desenvolvimento, com a receita alinhada à necessidade de investimentos e com as esperadas benfeitorias à sociedade. No Brasil, a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), considerada a mais importante ferramenta de regulação das contas públicas, instituiu metas, condições e limites para gestão das despesas e receitas, obrigando os agentes públicos a assumirem compromissos relacionados a arrecadação, bem como com a alocação de recursos públicos. Utilizando-se como estudo de caso o município paulista de Cruzeiro e buscando atender ao objetivo geral desta pesquisa – buscar alternativas para o seu reequilíbrio financeiro e aprimoramento de sua gestão pública – este trabalho realizou um diagnóstico sobre os orçamentos realizados durante o quadriênio 2012-2016, além de uma análise de todo arcabouço jurídico incidente à aspectos orçamentários, tributários e de planejamento. Por fim, apresenta-se em caráter de recomendações diretrizes para o desenvolvimento de ações que visam principalmente a atualização do sistema de tributação municipal e a eficiência na recuperação de estoque da dívida ativa, bem como a implantação de um projeto de Gestão de Projetos e Captação de Recursos Públicos. / By adjusting the expected revenue to macth the public expenditure needed to cover for social demands, financial management is essencial to push forward the development of all levels of federated units, may it be the national top-tier administration or local governments. In Brazil, the Fiscal Responsability Law (LRF) is considered to be the most important public accounting regulation tool, for it has established goals, requirements and limitations to public management of expenditure and revenues. The law stipulates that public agents are bound to tax collection and budget allocation liabilities. The present work analyses the case study of Cruzeiro, a city from the state of Sao Paulo, with a view to exploring alternatives for its financial adjustment and to improving its municipal financial management. The work investigated all the budgets of the period comprised from 2012 to 2016 besides reviewing the legal apparatus related to budget, tax and planning aspects. Finally, the work proposes recommendations to guide the implementation of measures aimed at bringing the municipal tax policy up to date and fostering efficiency in the active debt recovery and also to encourage to put in place a Project Management and Fund Raising plan.