An agroclimatic risk assessment for agricultural production across the Canadian prairie provinces has been assembled to address challenges related to frost, heat units, and moisture. Based on 30 years of daily climate data from 1971 though 2000 from 230 climate stations, the assessment provides a series of risk maps depicting the likelihood to achieve certain thresholds of frost dates or durations, heat unit accumulations, growing season rainfall, crop water demand (CWD), and crop water deficits. Maps for each parameter provide a spatial representation of 50%, 25%, and 10% risks and the coefficient of variation. / October 2007

An agroclimatic risk assessment for agricultural production across the Canadian prairie provinces has been assembled to address challenges related to frost, heat units, and moisture. Based on 30 years of daily climate data from 1971 though 2000 from 230 climate stations, the assessment provides a series of risk maps depicting the likelihood to achieve certain thresholds of frost dates or durations, heat unit accumulations, growing season rainfall, crop water demand (CWD), and crop water deficits. Maps for each parameter provide a spatial representation of 50%, 25%, and 10% risks and the coefficient of variation.

An agroclimatic risk assessment for agricultural production across the Canadian prairie provinces has been assembled to address challenges related to frost, heat units, and moisture. Based on 30 years of daily climate data from 1971 though 2000 from 230 climate stations, the assessment provides a series of risk maps depicting the likelihood to achieve certain thresholds of frost dates or durations, heat unit accumulations, growing season rainfall, crop water demand (CWD), and crop water deficits. Maps for each parameter provide a spatial representation of 50%, 25%, and 10% risks and the coefficient of variation.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agronomy / Geoffrey Morris / Climate change has been anticipated to affect agriculture, with most the profound effect in regions where low input agriculture is being practiced. Understanding of how plants evolved in adaptation to diverse climatic conditions in the presence of local stressors (biotic and abiotic) can be beneficial for improved crop adaptation and yield to ensure food security. Great genetic diversity exists for agroclimatic adaptation in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) but much of it has not been characterized. Thus, limiting its utilization in crop improvement. The application of next-generation sequencing has opened the plant genome for analysis to identify patterns of genome-wide nucleotide variations underlying agroclimatic adaptation. To understand the genetic basis of adaptive traits in sorghum, the genetic architecture of sorghum inflorescence traits was characterized in the first study. Phenotypic data were obtained from multi-environment experiments and used to perform joint linkage and genome-wide association mapping. Mapping results identified previously mapped and novel genetic loci underlying inflorescence morphology in sorghum. Inflorescence traits were found to be under the control of a few large and many moderate and minor effect loci. To demonstrate how our understanding of the genetic basis of adaptive traits can facilitate genomic enabled breeding, genomic prediction analysis was performed with results showing high prediction accuracies for inflorescence traits. In the second study, the sorghum-nested association mapping (NAM) population was used to characterize the genetic architecture of leaf erectness, leaf width, and stem diameter. About 2200 recombinant inbred lines were phenotyped in multiple environments. The obtained phenotypic data was used to perform joint linkage mapping using ~93,000 markers. The proportion of phenotypic variation explained by QTL and their allele frequencies were estimated. Common and moderate effects QTL were found to underlie marker-trait associations. Furthermore, identified QTL co-localized with genes involved in both vegetative and inflorescence development. Our results provide insights into the genetic basis of leaf erectness and stem diameter in sorghum. The identified QTL will also facilitate the development of genomic-enable breeding tools for crop improvement and molecular characterization of the underlying genes Finally, in a third study, 607 Nigerian accessions were genotyped and the resulting genomic data [about 190,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] was used for downstream analysis. Genome-wide scans of selection and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed and alongside estimates of levels of genetic differentiation and genetic diversity. Results showed that phenotypic variation in the diverse germplasm had been shaped by local adaptation across climatic gradient and can provide plant genetic resources for crop improvement.

Orientador: Modesto Barreto / Banca: Érika Auxiliadora Giacheto Scaloppi / Banca: Marcel Bellato Spósito / Resumo: O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar as condições climáticas do Estado de São Paulo e desenvolver mapas de zonas de risco de epidemias de cancro cítrico, podridão floral e pinta preta do citros. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes aos anos de 2002, 2003, 2004 e 2005, os quais foram utilizados os modelos de previsão. Para o cancro cítrico desenvolvido por Campbell e Madden (1990) e Hau e Kranz (1990); podridão floral dos citros desenvolvido por Timmer e Zitko (1993) e Timmer e Brown (2000); pinta preta desenvolvido por Hau e Kranz (1990) e Bergamin Filho (1995. Após a contabilização dos índices, foram calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças durante o ano e em períodos pré-definidos. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças. A região Noroeste do Estado foi a que apresentou a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico. As regiões Sul e Leste foram as que apresentaram maior favorabilidade de ocorrência da podridão floral do s citros. Para a pinta preta a região Sul com pontos no centro do Estado foi a que apresentou maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis a ocorrência da doença. / Abstract: The objective of the present work was to analyze the climatic conditions of the State of São Paulo and to develop maps of zones of risk of epidemics of citrus canker, postbloom fruit drop of citrus and citrus black spot. They had been used given meteorological referring to the years of 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, which had been used the forecast models. For the citrus canker developed by Campbell and Madden (1990) and Hau and Kranz (1990); postbloom fruit drop of citrus developed by Timmer and Zitko (1993) and Timmer and Brown (2000); it citrus black spot developed for Hau and Kranz (1990) and Bergamin Filho (1995). The frequency of the data was hourly and when some station presented imperfection in the series of data, these had been surpassed of the station next. After the accounting of the indices, had been calculated the percentages of days favorable to the occurrence of the diseases in the year and in the periods. From these information, the thematic maps of the State of São Paulo had been generated, with the space distribution of the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of the diseases. The region the Northwest of the State was the one that presented the biggest percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of citrus canker. The regions South and East had been the ones that had presented greater favorable of occurrence of the postbloom fruit drop of citrus. For the citrus black spot the South region with points in the center of the State was the one that presented greater percentage of favorable days the occurrence of the diseases. / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:33:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-01-06Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:44:37Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 ninin_mvl_dr_jabo.pdf: 504046 bytes, checksum: c4d5fb01770f50731225baa2e8790ca0 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Fundecitrus / O objetivo do presente trabalho foi construir modelos de favorabilidade para a expressão dos sintomas da mancha preta dos citros no estado de São Paulo e elaborar mapas de zonas de risco da expressão dos sintomas. Desenvolveu-se um sistema empírico com base em um banco de dados da ocorrência da doença e das condições climáticas, em campo, nos municípios de Barretos, Pedranópolis e Taquarituba, durante as Safras 2007/2008 e 2008/2009. A variedade de laranjeira doce utilizada nos experimentos foi a ‘Valência’ enxertada sobre limoeiro ‘Cravo’, com 10 anos de idade. Para a incidência da mancha preta foi avaliada a porcentagem de frutos com sintomas na planta e para a severidade, a porcentagem de casca lesionada por fruto. Na análise de regressão as variáveis climáticas e os dados de intensidade de doença foram selecionados no procedimento stepwise no programa SAS. Para a elaboração dos mapas de zonas de risco foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes as safras 2003/2004 e 2004/2005. Os modelos utilizados foram os construídos para o município de Pedranópolis que estava localizado na região 1 (Auriflama, Jales e Votuporanga), para o município de Barretos (região 2) e para o município de Taquarituba na região 3 (Tatuí e Campinas). A frequência dos dados foi horária e após a contabilização dos índices, foram calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças durante o ano e em períodos pré-definidos. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças. Os mapas de favorabilidade da mancha preta dos citros gerados com dados de campo apresentam a região Norte, central e Sudeste do estado de São Paulo com a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à expressão dos sintomas da doença... / The objective this study was to build forecasting models for the expression of citrus black spot in the state of Sao Paulo and produce maps of areas at risk of symptom expression. Developed an empirical system based on a database of disease occurrence and climatic conditions the city of Barretos, Pedranópolis and Taquarituba during the 2008/2009 and 2007/2008. The sweet orange variety was the 'Valencia', with 10 years. For the incidence of citrus black spot was evaluated the percentage of fruits with symptoms in the plant and the severity, the percentage of skin lesions fruit. In regression analysis climatic variables and data intensity of the disease were selected in stepwise in SAS. For maps of risk areas were used meteorological data regarding the 2004/2005 and 2003/2004. The models used were constructed for the city of Pedranópolis which was located in region 1 (Auriflama, Jales and Votuporanga), for the city of Barretos (region 2) and the region 3 Taquarituba (Tatuí and Campinas). The frequency of hourly and after accounting for the indices, we calculated the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of disease. From this information, thematic maps were generated in the state of São Paulo, with the spatial distribution of the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of diseases. Favorability maps of citrus black spot generated with field data show the north, central and southeastern state of Sao Paulo with the largest percentage of days favorable to the expression of disease symptoms. All citrus region of São Paulo is in favorable climatic conditions the expression of the symptoms of citrus black spot

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-09-18T13:55:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TELMA LÚCIA BEZERRA ALVES - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGRN) 2012.pdf: 19580580 bytes, checksum: 4e38c86b2270c7ed951f20f8722037b9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-18T13:55:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TELMA LÚCIA BEZERRA ALVES - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGRN) 2012.pdf: 19580580 bytes, checksum: 4e38c86b2270c7ed951f20f8722037b9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-29 / Capes / O presente estudo objetivou a caracterização física e socioambiental da Microbacia Hidrográfica do Riacho Namorado, localizada no município de São João do Cariri-PB, através da análise morfométrica, confecção de mapas temáticos, estimativa do índice de erosividade, diagnóstico socioambiental da população, identificação dos usos da água e aptidão climática de culturas para a região. Os parâmetros morfométricos e confecção dos mapas temáticos foram obtidos com o Software ArcGIS 9.3, em ambiente SIG. A estimativa do índice de erosividade da chuva teve como suporte a equação universal de perda de solos e o diagnóstico socioambiental a metodologia de Rocha (1997). Foram obtidos através de visitas técnicas e registros fotográficos informações que permitiram a identificação da utilização dos recursos hídricos na microbacia hidrográfica. Com base nos dados do balanço hídrico climático (BHC) e no evapopluviograma da região de estudo obteve-se a classificação das aptidões climáticas de culturas pré-estabelecidas e caracterizadas. Os resultados evidenciaram que a microbacia é pequena (13,85 km²) e pouco extensa (5,6 km do curso principal), com baixa densidade de drenagem (aproximadamente 1,66 km/km²) e hidrográfica (0,722 canais/km²). A hierarquia fluvial é de 2° ordem com baixa amplitude hipsométrica (130m) e relevo predominantemente plano e suave ondulado. A erosividade é maior nos meses de fevereiro, março e abril, que coincidem com os mais elevados valores da precipitação mensal. O diagnóstico socioambiental evidenciou que a população apresenta um baixo nível de escolaridade e de renda, são proprietários das terras e residentes a mais de dez anos na região. As famílias utilizam lenha como fonte energética, associada ao gás GLP. As fontes principais de água são cisternas e açudes e os resíduos sólidos são queimados ou eliminados livremente no ambiente. A agricultura e a pecuária são as principais atividades econômicas das propriedades, com a produção usada basicamente para subsistência das famílias. Os usos múltiplos das águas dos reservatórios da microbacia são: irrigação, agricultura de vazante e abastecimento humano. O zoneamento agroclimático apresentou aptidão plena apenas para a cultura do sorgo; aptidão restrita para o feijão, algodão herbáceo e mandioca; inaptidão para os cultivos de: abacaxi, banana, caju, cana-de-açúcar, mamona, milho, sisal; e nenhuma aptidão moderada para qualquer tipo de cultivo. / This study aimed characterize the physical and socio environmental of the Namorado Watershed, located in the municipality of São João do Cariri-PB by morphometric analysis, preparation of thematic maps, estimating the erosivity index, socio-environmental diagnosis of the population, identification of water use and climate suitability of crops for the region. The morphmetric parameters and production of thematic maps were obtained with the ArcGIS 9.3 Software in a GIS environment. The estimation of rainfall erosivity index was to support the universal equation of loss and socio-environmental diagnosis the methodology of Rocha (1997). Were obtained through technical visits and photographic record information that identified the use of water resources in the catchment. Based on the climatic water balance (BHC) and evapopluviograph of the study region, the classification of the climatic skills of crops preestablished ande characterized was obtained. The results showed that the watershed is mall (13.85 km²) and less extensive (5.6 km from the main course) with low drainage density (about 1.66 km/km²) and hydrographic (0.722 channels/km²). The river hierarchy is of 2° order with low hypsometric 1 amplitude (130m) and reliefmostly flat and smooth rolling. The erosivity is higher in the months of February, March and April, coinciding with the highest monthly precipitation data. The socio-environmental diagnosis showed that the population has low levels of education and income, are land owners and residents for over ten years in the region. Families use firewood as anergy source, associated with GLP. The main sources of water are tanks and ponds and the solid waste is burned or disposed freely in the environment. Agriculture and livestock are the main economic activities of the properties, with the production used primarily for family subsistence. The multiple uses of water in the reservoirs of the watershed are: irrigation, agriculture and low water supply for humans. The agroclimatic zoning showed only full fitness for the cultivation of sorghum, limited ability for beans, cassava and upland cotton; unsuitable for pineapple, banana, cashews, sugar cane, castor bean, maize, sisal; and no ability to moderate for any kind of cultivation.

Submitted by Valquíria Barbieri (kikibarbi@hotmail.com) on 2018-03-16T21:16:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2014_Airton Cazarin Júnior.pdf: 836171 bytes, checksum: 18998c5d0f96dfa3ec398764b0a3c933 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jordan (jordanbiblio@gmail.com) on 2018-04-10T17:44:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2014_Airton Cazarin Júnior.pdf: 836171 bytes, checksum: 18998c5d0f96dfa3ec398764b0a3c933 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-10T17:44:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2014_Airton Cazarin Júnior.pdf: 836171 bytes, checksum: 18998c5d0f96dfa3ec398764b0a3c933 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-29 / No Brasil, dentre os óleos vegetais empregados na produção de biodiesel, a palma de óleo apresenta grande potencial, sendo uma opção ao diesel de petróleo e contribuindo para a geração de um mercado de produção de biodiesel em grande escala. Além de ocupar uma posição de destaque na produção e geração de energia renovável de origem agrícola, o Brasil dispõe de extensas áreas agricultáveis que podem ser incorporadas ao processo produtivo de maneira sustentável. A palma de óleo é atualmente a oleaginosa de maior produtividade mundial, apresentando rendimento de óleo de 3 a 6 toneladas por hectare anualmente. Apresenta boa capacidade adaptativa, sendo ótima alternativa para recuperação de áreas degradadas. De acordo com o Zoneamento Agroecológico da Palma de óleo, o norte do estado de Mato Grosso se enquadra como área regular e marginal, apresentando restrições de déficit hídrico variando de 200 a 450 mm ano. Nesse contexto objetivou-se avaliar o desenvolvimento inicial de dois cultivares de palma de óleo sob-regime irrigado e de sequeiro, no município de Sinop – MT, visando estabelecer um manejo adequado de irrigação. Para tanto, realizou-se dois experimentos. No primeiro utilizou-se delineamento experimental de Blocos Casualizados, com dois cultivares (BRS C2501 e BRS C2528) e quatro níveis de depleção de água no solo (10, 20, 30 e 40% da disponibilidade total de água no solo), todos com três repetições (blocos). No segundo utilizou-se delineamento experimental de Blocos Casualizados, com dois cultivares (BRS C2501 e BRS C2528) e dois sistemas de cultivo (sequeiro e irrigado), todos com três repetições (blocos). Cada parcela experimental foi composta por cinco plantas, das quais foram avaliadas mensalmente: diâmetro médio de projeção da copa (DMP), número de folhas (NF) e largura do folíolo (LF). Os valores obtidos foram analisados em três períodos (chuvoso 1, seca e chuvoso 2), sendo comparados os dois cultivares, os níveis de depleção e o desenvolvimento nos dois sistemas de cultivo (irrigado e de sequeiro). Quando significativamente diferentes, as médias foram submetidas à comparação pelo teste de Tuckey ou regressão, sempre a 5% de probabilidade. Concluiu-se que as cultivares BRS C2501 e BRS C2528 apresentaram vi desenvolvimento vegetativo semelhante e o sistema irrigado foi superior ao não irrigado. / In Brazil, among the vegetable oils used in biodiesel production, oil palm has grest potential, standinpas an option to petroleum diesel and contributing to the creation of a market for large-scale production of biodiesel. Besides occupying a prominent position in the production and generation of renewable energy from agricultural sources, the Brazil has extensive agricultural areas that can be incorporated into the production process in a sustainable manner. Palm oil is currently the world's largest oilseed productivity, presenting oil yield of 3 to 6 tons per hectare annually. It has a good adaptive capacity and is a great alternative for restoration of degraded areas. According to the Agro-Ecological Zoning of Oil Palm, the northern state of Mato Grosso is considered as a regular and marginal area, with restrictions on water deficit ranging from 200 to 450 mm year. In this context the goal of this study was to evaluate the initial development of two oil palm cultivars under irrigated and rainfed system, in Sinop - MT, to establish a the best strategy for irrigation management. The experimental randomized block was designed with two cultivars (BRS C2501 and BRS C2528), and four soil water depletion levels (10, 20, 30 and 40% of the total available water in the soil) as well as a rainfed conditions, all with three replications (blocks). Each experimental plot consisted of five plants, that were evaluated on monthly basis regarding their morphological characteristics: canopy average diameter (DMP), number of leaves (NL) and width of leaves (LF). Therefore, it took two experiments. In the first we used a randomized blocks, with two cultivars (BRS C2501 and C2528 BRS) and four levels of water depletion in the soil (10, 20, 30 and 40% of the total soil water availability), all with three replications (blocks). In the second we used a randomized blocks, with two cultivars (BRS C2501 and C2528 BRS) and both systems (rainfed and irrigated), all with three replications (blocks). Each plot consisted of five plants, which were evaluated monthly: average diameter of crown projection (DMP), number of leaves (NF) and width of leaves (LF). The data were analyzed in three periods (1 rainy, dry and rainy 2), and compared the two cultivars, depletion levels and development in both systems (irrigated and viii rainfed). When significantly different, the means were submitted to comparison by Tukey test or regression, where a 5% probability. It was concluded that the BRS C2501 and C2528 BRS cultivars showed similar vegetative growth and the irrigation system was higher than non-irrigated.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:28:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-06-19Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:37:29Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 lopes_mv_me_jabo_prot.pdf: 799999 bytes, checksum: a3da99204a58afdd2f525f466e3bf214 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Funep/Oxiquimica / O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar as condições climáticas do Estado de São Paulo e desenvolver mapas de zonas de risco de epidemias de cancro cítrico, podridão floral e pinta preta do citros. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes aos anos de 2002, 2003, 2004 e 2005, os quais foram utilizados os modelos de previsão. Para o cancro cítrico desenvolvido por Campbell e Madden (1990) e Hau e Kranz (1990); podridão floral dos citros desenvolvido por Timmer e Zitko (1993) e Timmer e Brown (2000); pinta preta desenvolvido por Hau e Kranz (1990) e Bergamin Filho (1995. Após a contabilização dos índices, foram calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças durante o ano e em períodos pré-definidos. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças. A região Noroeste do Estado foi a que apresentou a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico. As regiões Sul e Leste foram as que apresentaram maior favorabilidade de ocorrência da podridão floral do s citros. Para a pinta preta a região Sul com pontos no centro do Estado foi a que apresentou maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis a ocorrência da doença. / The objective of the present work was to analyze the climatic conditions of the State of São Paulo and to develop maps of zones of risk of epidemics of citrus canker, postbloom fruit drop of citrus and citrus black spot. They had been used given meteorological referring to the years of 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, which had been used the forecast models. For the citrus canker developed by Campbell and Madden (1990) and Hau and Kranz (1990); postbloom fruit drop of citrus developed by Timmer and Zitko (1993) and Timmer and Brown (2000); it citrus black spot developed for Hau and Kranz (1990) and Bergamin Filho (1995). The frequency of the data was hourly and when some station presented imperfection in the series of data, these had been surpassed of the station next. After the accounting of the indices, had been calculated the percentages of days favorable to the occurrence of the diseases in the year and in the periods. From these information, the thematic maps of the State of São Paulo had been generated, with the space distribution of the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of the diseases. The region the Northwest of the State was the one that presented the biggest percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of citrus canker. The regions South and East had been the ones that had presented greater favorable of occurrence of the postbloom fruit drop of citrus. For the citrus black spot the South region with points in the center of the State was the one that presented greater percentage of favorable days the occurrence of the diseases.

Resumo: O objetivo do presente trabalho foi construir modelos de favorabilidade para a expressão dos sintomas da mancha preta dos citros no estado de São Paulo e elaborar mapas de zonas de risco da expressão dos sintomas. Desenvolveu-se um sistema empírico com base em um banco de dados da ocorrência da doença e das condições climáticas, em campo, nos municípios de Barretos, Pedranópolis e Taquarituba, durante as Safras 2007/2008 e 2008/2009. A variedade de laranjeira doce utilizada nos experimentos foi a 'Valência' enxertada sobre limoeiro 'Cravo', com 10 anos de idade. Para a incidência da mancha preta foi avaliada a porcentagem de frutos com sintomas na planta e para a severidade, a porcentagem de casca lesionada por fruto. Na análise de regressão as variáveis climáticas e os dados de intensidade de doença foram selecionados no procedimento stepwise no programa SAS. Para a elaboração dos mapas de zonas de risco foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes as safras 2003/2004 e 2004/2005. Os modelos utilizados foram os construídos para o município de Pedranópolis que estava localizado na região 1 (Auriflama, Jales e Votuporanga), para o município de Barretos (região 2) e para o município de Taquarituba na região 3 (Tatuí e Campinas). A frequência dos dados foi horária e após a contabilização dos índices, foram calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças durante o ano e em períodos pré-definidos. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência das doenças. Os mapas de favorabilidade da mancha preta dos citros gerados com dados de campo apresentam a região Norte, central e Sudeste do estado de São Paulo com a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à expressão dos sintomas da doença... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The objective this study was to build forecasting models for the expression of citrus black spot in the state of Sao Paulo and produce maps of areas at risk of symptom expression. Developed an empirical system based on a database of disease occurrence and climatic conditions the city of Barretos, Pedranópolis and Taquarituba during the 2008/2009 and 2007/2008. The sweet orange variety was the 'Valencia', with 10 years. For the incidence of citrus black spot was evaluated the percentage of fruits with symptoms in the plant and the severity, the percentage of skin lesions fruit. In regression analysis climatic variables and data intensity of the disease were selected in stepwise in SAS. For maps of risk areas were used meteorological data regarding the 2004/2005 and 2003/2004. The models used were constructed for the city of Pedranópolis which was located in region 1 (Auriflama, Jales and Votuporanga), for the city of Barretos (region 2) and the region 3 Taquarituba (Tatuí and Campinas). The frequency of hourly and after accounting for the indices, we calculated the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of disease. From this information, thematic maps were generated in the state of São Paulo, with the spatial distribution of the percentage of days favorable to the occurrence of diseases. Favorability maps of citrus black spot generated with field data show the north, central and southeastern state of Sao Paulo with the largest percentage of days favorable to the expression of disease symptoms. All citrus region of São Paulo is in favorable climatic conditions the expression of the symptoms of citrus black spot / Orientador: Modesto Barreto / Coorientador: Marcel Bellato Spósito / Banca: Érika Auxiliadora Giacheto Scaloppi / Banca: Fernando Alves Azevedo / Banca: José Carlos Barbosa / Banca: Rita de Cássia Panizzi / Doutor