This dissertation addresses: 1) the reliability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts generated by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University; 2) estimation of parameters of Mexican crop demand; and 3) the potential impacts of climate change on Mexican agriculture. The IRI ENSO forecasts were evaluated using prequential analysis, with calibration and scoring rules. Calibration tests and the Yates’ decomposition measures of the Brier score suggest that the IRI ENSO forecasts are improving in reliability and skill, showing a learning by doing behavior, i.e., these IRI ENSO forecasts show improved ability to predict the ENSO phases that really happen. In terms of estimation of the parameters of Mexican crop demand, an LA/AIDS model was used but the results were not very satisfactory with statistical tests rejecting homogeneity and symmetry. Furthermore, the estimated uncompensated price and income elasticities were found to be located in the tail regions of the Monte Carlo simulated density functions, showing poor validation of the initial estimates under similar economic (price and consumption) circumstances. Finally, in terms of the potential impacts that climate change has on Mexican agriculture, two 2050 climate change scenarios were examined. The central result indicates that Mexico benefits from climate change under the IPCC ensemble results for the B1 scenario and would experience welfare losses under the ensemble results for the A2 scenario. Moreover, dryland hectareage would decrease and would be replaced by irrigated areas. Finally, producer’s net income was found to decrease at the national level under both climate change scenarios. The results were generated using a mathematical programming sector model that was updated for the study.

No description available.

No description available.

This thesis consists of an introductory part and three papers. Paper [I] examines how taxes affect consumption of commodities that are detrimental to health and the environment. Specifically, this paper examines if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change, which is referred to as the signaling effect from taxation. The analysis uses aggregated cross-sectional time series data and information on major legislation introductions in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2009. We find the main result to be that the signaling effect is significant for “Electricity” in Sweden and Denmark and significant for “Electricity” and “Petrol” in the United Kingdom. Paper [II] examines how sin taxation changes long-term consumer behavior regarding commodities which are deemed harmful for both health and the environment. These include tobacco, alcoholic beverages, sugar and confectionary, household energy, and motor fuel. Specifically, we examine the signaling effect from taxation which is seen if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change. The empirical analysis is conducted by a US panel data study, during the period 1988-2012 for the four US census regions, using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). We find the main result to be that the signaling effect from taxation is significant for tobacco as well as for electricity and motor fuel.    Paper [III] examines state and industry responses on consumption of cigarettes and petroleum in the United States from 1998-2012. Upon facing consumption choices, the consumer faces two competing sets of messages, one from the government and another from the industry. The objective of the state is to steer consumption in the right direction due to the harmful effects from consumption and asymmetric information among consumers. This is done mainly via taxation and state media expenditures. The industry, on the other hand, seeks to incentivize the public to ignore or reject state research and signals as well as maximizing net economic returns. This is mainly done via industry media and lobbying expenditures. We find that the main results indicate, for cigarettes, industrial media and lobbying expenditure is statistically significant on consumption. For petroleum, we find that producer prices, state media expenditure, and industrial lobbying expenditure are statistically significant on consumption.

There are many different types of non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) available in the United States today compared to a decade ago. Additionally, the needs of beverage consumers have evolved over the years centering attention on functionality and health dimensions. These trends in volume of consumption are a testament to the growth in the NAB industry. Our study pertains to ten NAB categories. We developed and employed a unique cross-sectional and time-series data set based on Nielsen Homescan data associated with household purchases of NAB from 1998 through 2003. First, we considered demographic and economic profiling of the consumption of NAB in a two-stage model. Race, region, age and presence of children and gender of household head were the most important factors affecting the choice and level of consumption. Second, we used expectation-prediction success tables, calibration, resolution, the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to measure the accuracy of predictions generated from qualitative choice models used to model the purchase decision of NAB by U.S. households. The Yates partition of the Brier score outperformed all other measures. Third, we modeled demand interrelationships, dynamics and habits of NAB consumption estimating own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities. The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, the synthetic Barten model and the State Adjustment Model were used. Soft drinks were substitutes and fruit juices were complements for most of non-alcoholic beverages. Investigation of a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages revealed the importance of centering attention not only to direct effects but also to indirect effects of taxes on beverage consumption. Finally, we investigated factors affecting nutritional contributions derived from consumption of NAB. Also, we ascertained the impact of the USDA year 2000 Dietary Guidelines for Americans associated with the consumption of NAB. Significant factors affecting caloric and nutrient intake from NAB were price, employment status of household head, region, race, presence of children and the gender of household food manager. Furthermore, we found that USDA nutrition intervention program was successful in reducing caloric and caffeine intake from consumption of NAB. The away-from-home intake of beverages and potential impacts of NAB advertising are not captured in our work. In future work, we plan to address these limitations.

[ES] El objetivo 2 para el desarrollo sostenible de la ONU es hambre cero. Concretamente, se trata de poner fin al hambre, lograr la seguridad alimentaria (SA) y la mejora de la nutrición y promover la agricultura sostenible. Hay que destacar que la inseguridad alimentaria no es un problema exclusivo de países en desarrollo, sino que en los países llamados desarrollados parte de la población tiene problemas para garantizar una nutrición adecuada. Por otro lado, si bien hasta la fecha gran parte del debate sobre la SA se ha centrado en aspectos relacionados con la accesibilidad y la producción de alimentos, se observa una tendencia hacia un concepto más integral de la SA que abarca también los cambios ambientales globales. Por esta razón, investigadores, gobiernos y organismos internacionales están proponiendo medidas de diversa índole, enfocadas en garantizar la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional de la población, por un lado, y en contrarrestar los impactos negativos que las actividades de producción y consumo de alimentos tienen sobre el medio ambiente y el cambio climático. En este sentido, el registro de datos relacionados con variables económicas y medioambientales, junto al conocimiento de expertos en estas áreas y el uso de herramientas de estadística aplicada, han contribuido a que, a partir de evidencias objetivas, se formalicen de una forma estructurada y coherente las acciones que pueden modificar el comportamiento social y económico de todos los agentes involucrados. En este contexto, la teoría económica en general, y la teoría del consumidor en particular, a partir del registro y procesado detallado de información estadística relacionada, han hecho posible analizar algunos aspectos de las actitudes, comportamientos y preferencias del consumidor. Dichos aspectos pueden ser utilizados como señales de las posibles reacciones que los consumidores tendrían en su demanda por algunos alimentos ante cambios en variables de mercado que no puede controlar, como los precios, o ante acciones de política pública que también pueden modificar sus decisiones de consumo tales como la aplicación de impuestos y/o subsidios, los cuales finalmente afectarán sus metas alimentarias y nutricionales. Por otro lado, el análisis de ciclo de vida (ACV) ha adquirido una gran fortaleza en términos de evaluación medioambiental. En concreto, el ACV en su variante consecuencial (ACV-C) presenta interés para la valoración de las posibles consecuencias sobre el medioambiente ante cambios exógenos en variables económicas o de política medioambiental. En la literatura relacionada con ACV-C se utilizan las elasticidades para conocer la denominada relación de sustitución entre productos alternativos. En general, una elasticidad es una medida cuantitativa que relaciona el cambio porcentual en términos de cantidades para una variable en particular con el cambio porcentual que tenga cualquier otra variable. De esta manera se pueden modelar los cambios que se presentan a corto y largo plazo en los indicadores medioambientales como consecuencia de cambios en variables como los precios o la cantidad de insumos utilizados en la producción de un bien o servicio. Ante este escenario, el objetivo de esta tesis es proponer nuevas metodologías para evaluar la seguridad alimentaria (SA) y la sostenibilidad ambiental asociada al consumo de alimentos, con el fin de promover una seguridad alimentaria sostenible. Los casos de estudio desarrollados se centrarán en España y se utilizarán herramientas metodológicas que involucren la aplicación de la teoría del consumidor, la perspectiva de ciclo de vida y algunos métodos estadísticos. El alcance del objetivo planteado se ha logrado a partir de cuatro objetivos secundarios, y cada uno de ellos ha quedado reflejado en sendos capítulos de la tesis, de los cuales dos se han concentrado en analizar la seguridad alimentaria y los dos restantes en los aspectos medioambientales. / [CAT] El segon dels Objectius per al Desenvolupament Sostenible de la ONU és fam zero. Concretament, es tracta de posar fi a la fam, aconseguir la seguretat alimentària (SA) i millorar la nutrició i promoure la agricultura sostenible. Cal destacar que la inseguretat alimentària no és un problema exclusiu de països en desenvolupament, sinó que als països anomenats desenvolupats part de la població té problemes per a garantir una nutrició adient. Per altra banda, encara que gran part del debat al voltant de la SA s'ha centrat en aspectes relacionats amb l'accessibilitat i la producció d'aliments, s'observa una tendència cap a un concepte més integral de la SA que abasta també els canvis ambientals globals. Per aquesta raó, investigadors, governs i organismes internacionals estan proposant mesures de diversa índole, enfocades a garantir la seguretat alimentària i nutricional de la població, d'una banda, i a contrarestar els impactes negatius que les activitats de producció i consum d'aliments tenen sobre el medi ambient i el canvi climàtic. En aquest sentit, el registre de dades relacionades amb variables econòmiques i ambientals, conjuntament amb el coneiximent d'experts en aquestes àrees i l'ús d'eines d'estadística aplicada, han contribuït a que a partir de evidències objectives es formalitzen de forma estructurada i coherent les accions que poden modificar el comportament social i econòmic de tots els agents involucrats. En aquest context, la teoria econòmica en general, i la teoria del consumidor en particular, a partir del registre i processament detallat d'informació estadística relacionada, han fet possible analitzar alguns aspectes de les actituds, comportaments i preferències del consumidor. Aquests aspectes poden ser utilitzats com a senyals de les possibles reaccions que els consumidors tindrien en la seua demanda per alguns aliments davant canvis en variables de mercat que no pot controlar, com ara els preus, o davant accions de política pública que també poden modificar les seues decisions de consum, tals com l'aplicació d'impostos i/o subsidis, els quals finalment afectaran les seues metes alimentàries i nutricionals. D'altra banda, l'anàlisi de cicle de vida (ACV) ha adquirit una gran fortalesa per a la avaluació ambiental. En concret, l'ACV en la seua variant conseqüencial (ACV-C) presenta interès per a la valoració de les possibles conseqüències sobre el mediambient davant canvis exògens en variables econòmiques o de política medioambiental. En la literatura relacionada amb l'ACV-C s'utilitzen paràmetres econòmics como ara les elasticitats, per a conèixer la denominada relació de substitució entre productes alternatius. En general, una elasticitat es una mesura quantitativa que relaciona el canvi percentual en quant a quantitats d'una variable en particular amb el canvi percentual que té qualsevol altra variable. D'aquesta manera es poden modelar els canvis que es presenten a curt i llarg termini em els indicadors mediambientals a conseqüència de canvis en variables como ara els preus o la quantitat d'inputs utilitzats en la producció d'un bé o servei. Davant d'aquest escenari, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi es proposar noves metodologies per a avaluar la seguretat alimentària (SA) i la sostenibilitat ambiental associada al consum d'aliments, amb la fi de promoure una seguretat alimentària sostenible. Els casos d'estudi desenvolupats se centraran en Espanya, i s'utilitzaran eines metodològiques que involucren l'aplicació de la teoria del consumidor, la perspectiva de cicle de vida i alguns mètodes estadístics. L'abast del objectiu plantejat s'ha aconseguit a partir de quatre objectius secundaris, i cadascun d'ells ha quedat reflectit en respectius capítols de la tesi, dels cuals dos s'han centrat en analitzar la seguretat alimentària, i els dos restants en els aspectes medioambientals. / [EN] The second of the UNO's Sustainable Development Goals is zero hunger. The aim is to end hunger, achieve food security (FS) and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. It must be highlighted that food insecurity is not a problem exclusively for developing countries, but in the so-called developed countries, part of the population has also problems to achieve adequate nutrition. On the other hand, although to date much of the debate on FS has focused on aspects related to accessibility and food production, there is a trend towards a more comprehensive concept of food security that also encompasses global environmental changes. Thus, researchers, governments, and international organizations as FAO are proposing various measures and focused on guaranteeing food and nutritional security of the population and, in addition, on counteracting the negative impacts that food production and consumption generate on the environment and climate change. Along these lines, the recording of economic and environmental data, together with experts' knowledge in these areas, and the use of applied statistics are fundamental so that, from objective evidence, actions to modify the economic and social behavior of the individuals involved be formulated in a structured and coherent way. In this context, the economic theory in general, and the consumer theory in particular, accompanied by detailed recording and processing of statistical information, have made possible to analyze many aspects related to the attitudes, behaviors, and preferences of consumers. These aspects may be used as signals of their possible consumers' demand reactions for some foods in the face of changes in market variables that they cannot control, such as food prices, or in the face of public policy actions that may also alter their decisions such as taxes and /or subsidies, which will ultimately affect your food and nutritional situation. On the other hand, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has gained great importance as to environmental assessment. Specifically, consequential LCA (C-LCA) arises as a tool to assess the potential consequences on the environment in view of exogenous changes in specific economic variables, or environmental policies. When reviewing the literature on C-LCA, elasticities are used to find out the so-called substitution ratio between alternative products. Generally, an elasticity is a quantitative measure that relates the percentage change of a specific variable with the percentage change of another variable. In this way, we can model short and long term changes of the environmental indicators as a consequence of changes of variables such as the price or the amount of inputs applied in the production of a good or service. Taking the foregoing, the objective of this dissertation is to propose new methodologies to evaluate Food Security (FS), and the environmental sustainability associated with food consumption, in order to promote a sustainable food security. The case studies developed will be focused on Spain, and methodological tools that involve the application of consumer theory, LCA, together with statistical methods will be used for this. The scope of the stated objective has been achieved from four secondary objectives, each of them reflected in respective chapters of this dissertation. Two of the chapters focus on analyzing food security, and the remaining two on environmental aspects. Initially, in the absence of FS measurement tools that allow the formulation of strategies in terms of regions or regional blocks, a new methodology for measuring food insecurity based on the dimensions of access and stability consumption is proposed and implemented in chapter 2. To this aim, the values of different price and income elasticities for nine animal sourced foods (ASF) are integrated by using quarterly data of for the period 2004-2015 in the 17 Spanish regions. The results / Forero Cantor, GA. (2020). Incorporación de consideraciones de estabilidad y sostenibilidad ambiental en la seguridad alimentaria. El caso de España [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/158733