Thesis (D. Miss.)--Concordia Theological Seminary, Ft. Wayne, 1997. / Abstract and vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 333-346) and indexes.

Thesis (M.A. in agricultural economics)--Washington State University, August 2006. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2007. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-100). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oklahoma. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität, Hohenheim, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 187-199).

Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are the primary tool for modelling global climate change in the future. However, their coarse spatial resolution does not permit direct application for local scale impact studies. Therefore, either dynamical or statistical downscaling techniques are used for translating AOGCM outputs to local scale climatic variables. The main goal of this study was to improve our understanding of the historical and future climate change at local-scale in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (CPPs) of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, comprising 47 diverse watersheds. Given the vast nature of the study area and paucity of recorded data, a novel approach for identifying homogeneous regions for regionalization of precipitation characteristics for the CPPs was proposed. This approach incorporated information about predictors ― large-scale atmospheric covariates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices and geographical site attributes that impact spatial patterns of precipitation in order to delineate homogeneous precipitation regions using a combination of multivariate approaches. This resulted in the delimitation of five homogeneous climatic regions which were validated independently for homogeneity using statistics computed from observations recorded at 120 stations across the CPPs. For multisite multivariate statistical downscaling, an approach based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework was developed to downscale daily observations of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the CPPs. First, the aforementioned predictors and observed daily precipitation and temperature records were used to calibrate GLMs for the 1971–2000 period. Then the calibrated GLMs were used to generate daily sequences of precipitation and temperatures for the 1962–2005 historical (conditioned on NCEP predictors), and future period (2006–2100) using outputs from six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) AOGCMs corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicated that the fitted GLMs were able to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of observed climatic fields. According to the downscaled future climate, mean precipitation is projected to increase in summer and decrease in winter while minimum temperature is expected to warm faster than the maximum temperature. Climate extremes are projected to intensify with increased radiative forcing.

Arid and semi-arid basins in the Western United States (US) have been significantly impacted by human alterations to the water cycle and are among the most susceptible to water stress from urbanization and climate change. The climate of the Western US is projected to change in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Combined with land use/land cover (LULC) change, it can influence both surface and groundwater resources, both of which are a significant source of water in the US. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of how we are vulnerable and the development of strategies for managing future risk. In this dissertation, I explored how hydrology of semi-arid regions responds to LULC and climate change and how hydrologic projections are influenced by the choice and calibration of models. The three main questions I addressed with this dissertation are: 1. Is it important to calibrate models for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes? 2. Do LSMs make reasonable estimates of groundwater recharge in the western US? 3. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? Results from this study suggested that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. Our results also highlighted that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating current and future recharge in data limited regions. Average annual recharge is projected to increase in about 62% of the region and decrease in about 38% of the western US in future and varies significantly based on location (-50% - +94 for near future and -90% to >100% for far future). Recharge is expected to decrease significantly (-13%) in the South region in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in both in the near (+5.1%) and far (+9.0%) future. Overall, this study suggested that land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change significantly impacts hydrology in semi-arid regions. Model choice and model calibrations also influence the hydrological predictions. Hydrological projections from models have associated uncertainty, but still provide valuable information for water managers with long term water management planning.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:51:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN/CNEN-SP / FAPESP:04/04148-3

Esta tese propõe uma reflexão sobre a abordagem de coletivos de pesquisa em processos relacionados ao desenvolvimento rural. Os coletivos são entendidos como comunidades de pesquisa em que diversos atores sociais interagem na geração do conhecimento, que transpõem barreiras físicas, institucionais, metodológicas e epistemológicas. O objetivo central desse estudo foi analisar as relações que se estabelecem entre os atores no Projeto Fortalecimento da Vitivinicultura no Vale do Jaguari (PFV-VJ), identificando como podem contribuir para a estruturação de um Coletivo de Pesquisa para o desenvolvimento rural (CPDR). Para alcançá-los, os seguintes objetivos específicos foram perseguidos: a) Aprofundar aspectos teóricos sobre Coletivos de Pesquisa como uma contribuição aos estudos em Desenvolvimento Rural; b) Reconstruir a trajetória do projeto na perspectiva dos atores, analisando práticas e relações estabelecidas no âmbito do mesmo; c) Identificar os papéis dos participantes e sua inserção como atores sociais no contexto do projeto; d) Analisar as ações conjuntas dos atores, identificando se e como caracterizam um Coletivo de Pesquisa para o desenvolvimento rural no âmbito do projeto. A perspectiva orientada ao ator contribuiu para se chegar à compreensão das relações que se estabeleceram a partir do PFV-VJ, focando nos seus percalços, embates, dilemas, consensos e dissensos, especialmente, a partir das vivências que se estabeleceram entre os diversos mundos de vida dos atores envolvidos. Assim, ancorado pela perspectiva construcionista o método de investigação se inspirou na etnometodologia. Os ‘pesquisados’ foram os envolvidos no projeto: agricultores, professores, técnicos, estudantes, e um representante do SEBRAE. Foram entrevistados dois informantes chave da cooperativa, o presidente e o enólogo e cinco agricultores. Totalizando 22 entrevistas em profundidade. As técnicas de coleta de dados foram: a entrevista não estruturada, a observação participante e a pesquisa documental. A reconstituição do projeto possibilitou analisar como os atores sociais interagiam nas interfaces e, a partir dela se propôs o CPDR. A reconstituição do projeto indicou, que os pontos mais delicados passam por questões institucionais, quer seja por parte do poder político, das estruturas de apoio ao conhecimento ou nas iniciativas locais de desenvolvimento. Fato que pode ser observado nas organizações dos agricultores, que não conseguem implementar uma gestão mais participativa, nas instituições de ensino que também são burocratizadas e presas à ciência tradicional, como nas organizações de assessoramento e gestão. Entre os participantes do projeto há a perspectiva forte da ciência acabada, desenvolvida pelos experts e colocada à comunidade de forma massificada. Nesse sentido, a proposta do CPDR resgata três elementos da proposta básica do Coletivo de Pesquisa: o primeiro é que sai dos muros dos espaços da ciência tradicional e avança no sentido de incluir mais atores (não apenas em termos de adição, mas no sentido da interação que se processa entre eles, que passa de uma atuação individual para uma ação articulada) e conquistar novos territórios, como, por exemplo, as cooperativas, associações ou as propriedades dos agricultores; o segundo, que valoriza o conhecimento tácito dos atores sociais, que ganha relevância nos espaços de construção coletiva favorecido pelas trocas significativas; e o terceiro, que estimula as trocas de informações e cria condições para que os resultados das pesquisas e atividades práticas sejam divulgados por meio das comunidades epistêmicas. / This thesis aims to propose an in depth consideration on the potential of Collective Research approach to processes related to rural development. These collectives are considered as research communities where different social actors interact generating knowledge, which overcomes physical, institutional, methodological and epistemological barriers. The central aim of this study was to analyse the relationships established between the actors taking part in the “Projeto Fortalecimento da Vitivinicultura do Vale do Jaguari” ( PFV- VJ ), identifying how they can contribute to the development of a Collective Research for Rural Development (CPDR). To this end, the following specific objectives were pursued: a) Increasing knowledge of the theoretical aspects of Collectives Research as a contribution to studies in Rural Development ; b ) Attempt to reconstruct the history of the project from the perspective of the actors, while analysing practices and established relationships within the same ; c ) Identify the roles of the participants and their inclusion as social actors in the context of the project ; d) Analyse the joint actions of the actors, identifying whether and how they feature as a Collective Research for rural development under the project. The actor -oriented perspective contributed to improve the understanding of the relationships established from the PFV- VJ, focusing on their difficulties, struggles, dilemmas, consensus and dissent, especially, from the experiences that have established themselves among the various worlds of the actors involved. Thus, anchored in the constructionist perspective, the investigative method of choice in my research was inspired by ethnomethodology. Respondents were those involved in the project PFV-VJ: farmers, teachers, technicians, students, and a representative of SEBRAE. Also were interviewed two key informants from the Cooperative, its president, the oenologist and five farmers. In total 22 in-depth interviews were carried out. The data collection techniques were: unstructured interview, participant observation and documentary research. The project reconstruction allowed me to analyse how social actors interact at interfaces, and based on that, a proposal for the CPDR was created. The reconstruction of the project indicated that the most sensitive points go through institutional issues, either by political power, or structures supporting knowledge, or local development initiatives. This fact can be observed in organizations of farmers, who fail to implement a more participatory management, and also in educational institutions that are too bureaucratic and attached to traditional science, such as advisory and management organizations. Among the participants of the project there is a strong perception of finished science, developed by experts and made mainstream. In this sense , what is proposed by CPDR rescues three elements of the Collective Research basic proposal: the first is to come out of the walls of the traditional science and progresses towards including more actors ( not only in terms of adding numbers, but in the sense of generating more interaction among them, moving from an individual performance to an coordinated action) and to conquer new territories, for example, cooperatives, associations or small holding farmers; the second, which values the tacit knowledge of the social actors, which becomes relevant in the spaces of collective construction favoured by significant interchanges; and third, that stimulates the exchange of information and creates conditions so that the results of research and practical activities are disseminated through epistemic communities.

A presente tese trata de analisar, a partir da situação das Regiões Ártica e Antártica, questões ambientais que se inserem no campo das relações e dos estudos de segurança internacionais. Neste sentido, através de uma abordagem comparativa, ajusta-se, metodológica e teoricamente, as relações entre questões ambientais e de segurança e sua intersecção com os estudos sobre regimes internacionais. O objetivo é a partir de uma concepção de que são o Ártico (parcialmente) e a Antártica, áreas internacionais, examinar a relação existente entre a exploração de recursos naturais e questões ambientais (mudanças climáticas) e as possibilidades de conflitos e sua superação ou adiamento, em função do exame intrínseco da competição por recursos naturais (petróleo, gás, hidratos de gás, bioprospecção, recursos marinhos, água doce, turismo e rotas polares, esse último somente para o Ártico) e das mudanças climáticas e dos regimes concebidos nas Regiões Polares. Foram examinadas, ao mesmo tempo, dificuldades econômicas, ambientais, técnicas e políticas (dificuldades intrínsecas) à exploração de recursos ambientais, os efeitos das mudanças climáticas e a força dos regimes das Regiões Polares, verificando-se as respectivas capacidades de adiar ou evitar conflitos. Sendo que a força do regime foi examinada a partir do grau de impacto dos elementos que a formam: 1) efetividade do regime, 2) a resiliência do regime, 3) resistência do regime, 4) a presença do hegemon e outros Estados protagonistas, 5) mecanismos de aquiescência, que incentivem ou obriguem o respeito as regras do regime, e 6) existência de uma organização internacional vinculada. Partiu-se do pressuposto de que quanto maiores as dificuldades para exploração, menor seria a competição e, portanto, menores as possibilidades de ocorrerem conflitos. A possibilidade de ocorrência de conflitos também foi cotejada com o grau de fortalecimento dos regimes instalados nas Regiões Polares. A tese conclui que no Ártico e na Antártica as dificuldades para a exploração dos recursos naturais se equivalem. Especificamente no campo político e econômico, quanto aos minerais (inclusive água) na Antártica a dificuldade é maior na atualidade em função da vedação da exploração até 2048 e porque as pesquisas ainda são insuficientes para comprovar a viabilidade da exploração; em compensação no Ártico a localização dos recursos em áreas sob soberania ou no espaço que compreende a ZEE não enseja dificuldades políticas e jurídicas para exploração em função da aplicação da CNUDM. Por sua vez, em especial, as externalidades dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas nas Regiões Polares podem provocar o aumento do n.m.m. e alterações dos padrões climáticos, contudo conflitos não seriam inevitáveis. Em relação aos Regimes Polares ambos foram considerados fortes, contudo o regime antártico foi considerado mais fortalecido. O exame dos elementos, principalmente, a resiliência e efetividade do STA e cotejamento com o processo de consolidação do regime complexo do Ártico justificam a conclusão. Por fim conclui esta tese que as condições para exploração dos recursos naturais, os efeitos das mudanças climáticas nas e a partir das Regiões Polares e o grau de fortalecimento dos regimes internacionais lá constituídos revelam, que os conflitos, ainda que possíveis não são prováveis. / This thesis analyzes, from Arctic and Antarctic regions, environmental issues which fall within the field of international relations and security studies. In this sense, through a comparative approach sets, intends to, methodological and theoretically, the relationship between environmental and security issues and its intersection with studies on international relations. The goal is, from a design which are the Arctic (in part) and Antarctica, international areas, examining the links between the exploitation of natural resources and environmental issues (climate change) and the potential for conflicts and overcome them or postponement, due to the intrinsic exam competition for natural resources (oil, gas, gas hydrates, bioprospecting, marine resources, freshwater, tourism and polar routes, the latter only for the Arctic) and climate change and regimes in the polar regions. Were examined at the same time, economic, environmental, technical and policy difficulties (intrinsic difficulties) the exploitation of environmental resources, the effects of climate change and the strength of the polar regions regimes, verifying their ability to delay or avoid conflicts. The strength of the system was examined from the degree of impact of the elements that form it: 1) effectiveness of the system, 2) the resilience of the system, 3) regime resistance, 4) the presence of the hegemon and other protagonists States 5) compliance mechanisms that encourage or force respect the rules of the regime, and 6) the existence of a linked international organization. It started with the assumption that the greater the difficulties for exploration, would be less competition and therefore lower the chances of occurrence of conflicts. The possibility of conflict was also checked against the degree of strengthening of systems installed in the polar regions. The thesis concludes that the Arctic and Antarctic difficulties for the exploitation of natural resources are equivalent. Specifically, in the political and economic field, as minerals (including water) in Antarctica the difficulty is greater today due to the operations are prohibited up to 2048 and because the research is still insufficient to prove the viability of the exploitation; in compensation in the Arctic location of resources in areas under the sovereignty or within the EEZ that comprises not entails political and legal difficulties to exploitation due to the implementation of UNCLOS. In turn, in particular, the externalities of the effects of climate change on the polar regions can cause an increase in sea level and changes in weather patterns, however conflicts would not inevitable. Regarding the polar regimes both were considered strong, however the Antarctic regime was considered more strong. Examination of the components, especially the resilience and effectiveness of ATS and mutual comparison with the consolidation of the complex Arctic regime justify the conclusion. Finally, this thesis concludes that the conditions for exploitation of natural resources, the effects of climate change on and from the polar regions and the degree of strengthening international regimes established their reveal that the conflicts, although possible is not probable.