Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Sydney, 2002. / Title from title screen (viewed Apr. 28, 2008). Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science. Includes bibliography. Also available in print form.

A Identificação de Sistemas é uma das técnicas utilizadas para se obter a representação matemática de um sistema. Diversos métodos podem ser aplicados para se obter um modelo matemático através da identificação de sistemas, entre eles o método de identificação assintótico, também chamado de ASYM (Zhu, 1998). Este trabalho propõe aplicar o método de identificação assintótico em sistemas SISO para a obtenção de modelo de sistemas ditos caixa-preta e avaliar o seu desempenho buscando também o melhor detalhamento do método. Os modelos obtidos foram avaliados de acordo com sua nota calculada através do método ASYM, através da comparação do índice de ajuste fit para autovalidação e validação cruzada e pela variância dos parâmetros dos modelos. O método ASYM é exaustivamente testado para sua avaliação. Entre os testes realizados neste trabalho destacam-se dois experimentos tipo Monte-Carlo com mais de quinhentas identificações e a aplicação do método em uma planta real. Os testes comprovaram a viabilidade da aplicação do método assintótico na identificação de sistemas SISO do tipo caixa-preta com excelente desempenho para estruturas ARMAX. / System Identification is one of the techniques used to obtain the mathematical representation of a system. Several methods can be applied to obtain a mathematical model by the system identification, including the asymptotic method, also called ASYM (Zhu, 1998). This work proposes to apply the ASYM method for SISO systems identification, then obtain models of black-box systems called \"black box\" and evaluate its performance and show details of the method. The models obtained were evaluated according to their grade calculated using the ASYM method, by comparing the fit adjustment index, self-validation and cross validation and the variance of model parameters. The asymptotic method has been extensively tested to be evaluated. Among the tests in this work, two stand out such Monte Carlo experiments with more than five hundred identifications and a real plant identification. The tests proved the feasibility of applying the asymptotic method in the \"black box\" SISO systems identification with excellent performance for ARMAX structures.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第18037号 / 経博第490号 / 新制||経||268(附属図書館) / 30895 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 西山 慶彦, 准教授 奥井 亮, 講師 末石 直也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

Composites are materials which cater to the present and future needs of many demanding industries, such as aerospace, as they are weight-sensitive for a given requirement of strength and stiff ness, corrosion resistant, potentially multi-functional and can be tailored according to the application. However, they are in particular difficult to join as they cannot be easily machined, without introducing damages which can eventually grow. Any structure is as strong as its weakest joint. Most of the joints belong to the category of mechanically-fastened joints and they pose enormous challenges in modeling due to contact phenomena, nonlinearity and stress concentration factors. It is therefore a necessity to construct an efficient model that would include all the relevant contact phenomena in the joints, as it has been pointed out in literature that damage typically initiates near the joint holes. The focus of this work is to describe the construction of an asymptotically-correct model using the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM). Amongst its many potential applications, VAM is a well-established analytical tool for obtaining the stress and strain fields for beams and shells. The methodology takes advantage of the small parameter that is inherent in the problem, such as the ratio of certain characteristic dimensions of the structure. In shells and beams, VAM takes advantage of the dimension-based small parameter(s), thereby splitting the problem into 2-D + 1-D (for beams) and 1-D + 2-D (for shells), in turn offering very high computational efficiency with very little loss of accuracy compared to dimensionally unreduced 3-D models. In this work, the applicability of VAM is extended to two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) frictionless contact problems. Since a generalised VAM model for contact has not been pursued before, the `phantom0 step is adopted for both 2-D and 3-D models. The development of the present work starts with the construction of a 2-D model involving a large rectangular plate being pressed against a rigid frictionless pin. The differential equations governing the problem and the associated boundary conditions are obtained by minimizing the reduced strain energy, augmented with the appropriate gap function, by using a penalty method. The model is developed for both isotropic and orthotropic cases. The boundary value problem is solved numerically and the displacement field obtained is compared with the one obtained using commercial software (ABAQUSr) for validation at critical regions such as the contact surfaces. Banking on the validation of the 2-D model, a 3-D model with a pin and a finite annular cylinder was constructed. The strain energy for the finite cylinder was derived using geometrically exact 3-D kinematics and VAM was applied leading to the reduction in the strain energy for isotropic and orthotropic materials in rectangular and cylindrical co-ordinates. As in the 2-D case, the reduced strain energy, subject to the inequality constraint of the gap function, is minimized with respect to the displacement field and the corresponding boundary value problem is solved numerically. The displacements of the contact surface and the top surface of the annular cylinder are compared with those from ABAQUS and thus validated. The displacement fields obtained using the current 2-D and 3-D models show very good agreement with those from commercial finite element software packages. The model could be re ned further by using the gap function derived in this work and applying it to a plate model based on VAM, which could be explored in the future.

Master of Science / Department of Statistics / Christopher Vahl / In clinical research, noninferiority trials are becoming an important tool for investigating whether a new treatment is useful. The outcome measured can be either continuous (e.g. blood pressure level), time-to-event (e.g. days until heart attack), or binary (e.g. death). Rather than showing that the new treatment is superior to an active control, i.e. standard drug or treatment already available, one tests whether the new treatment is not meaningfully worse than the active control. Here we consider a binary outcome such as success or failure following an intervention. Evaluation of the treatment relative to control becomes a comparison of two binomial proportions; without loss of generality it will be assumed the larger the probability of success for an intervention the better. Simulation studies under these assumptions were programmed over a variety of different sample sizes and true population proportions to determine the performance between asymptotic noninferiority methods based on calculations of risk differences (with and without a continuity correction), relative risks, and odds ratio from two independent samples. Investigation was done to compare type I error rates, power when true proportions were exactly the same, and power when the true proportion for treatment group was less than the control, but not meaningfully inferior. Simulation results indicate most analysis methods have comparable type I error rates; however, the method based on relative risk has higher power under most circumstances. Due to the ease of interpretation with the relative risk, its use is recommended for establishing noninferiority of a binomial proportion between 0.2 and 0.8.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2003 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A tower of global function fields :F = (FI, F2' ... ) is an infinite tower of separable extensions of algebraic function fields of one variable such that the constituent function fields have the same (finite) field of constants and the genus of these tend to infinity. A study can be made of the asymptotic behaviour of the ratio of the number of places of degree one over the genus of FJWq as i tends to infinity. A tower is called asymptotically good if this limit is a positive number. The well-known Drinfeld- Vladut bound provides a general upper bound for this limit. In practise, asymptotically good towers are rare. While the first examples were non-explicit, we focus on explicit towers of function fields, that is towers where equations recursively defining the extensions Fi+d F; are known. It is known that if the field of constants of the tower has square cardinality, it is possible to attain the Drinfeld- Vladut upper bound for this limit, even in the explicit case. If the field of constants does not have square cardinality, it is unknown how close the limit of the tower can come to this upper bound. In this thesis, we will develop the theory required to construct and analyse the asymptotic behaviour of explicit towers of function fields. Various towers will be exhibited, and general families of explicit formulae for which the splitting behaviour and growth of the genus can be computed in a tower will be discussed. When the necessary theory has been developed, we will focus on the case of towers over fields of non-square cardinality and the open problem of how good the asymptotic behaviour of the tower can be under these circumstances. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Toring van globale funksieliggame F = (FI, F2' ... ) is 'n oneindige toring van skeibare uitbreidings van algebraïese funksieliggame van een veranderlike sodat die samestellende funksieliggame dieselfde (eindige) konstante liggaam het en die genus streef na oneindig. 'n Studie kan gemaak word van die asimptotiese gedrag van die verhouding van die aantal plekke van graad een gedeel deur die genus van Fi/F q soos i streef na oneindig. 'n Toring word asimptoties goed genoem as hierdie limiet 'n positiewe getal is. Die bekende Drinfeld- Vladut grens verskaf 'n algemene bogrens vir hierdie limiet. In praktyk is asimptoties goeie torings skaars. Terwyl die eerste voorbeelde nie eksplisiet was nie, fokus ons op eksplisiete torings, dit is torings waar die vergelykings wat rekursief die uitbreidings Fi+d F; bepaal bekend is. Dit is bekend dat as die kardinaliteit van die konstante liggaam van die toring 'n volkome vierkant is, dit moontlik is om die Drinfeld- Vladut bogrens vir die limiet te behaal, selfs in die eksplisiete geval. As die konstante liggaam nie 'n kwadratiese kardinaliteit het nie, is dit onbekend hoe naby die limiet van die toring aan hierdie bogrens kan kom. In hierdie tesis salons die teorie ontwikkel wat benodig word om eksplisiete torings van funksieliggame te konstrueer, en hulle asimptotiese gedrag te analiseer. Verskeie torings sal aangebied word en algemene families van eksplisiete formules waarvoor die splitsingsgedrag en groei van die genus in 'n toring bereken kan word, sal bespreek word. Wanneer die nodige teorie ontwikkel is, salons fokus op die geval van torings oor liggame waarvan die kardinaliteit nie 'n volkome vierkant is nie, en op die oop probleem aangaande hoe goed die asimptotiese gedrag van 'n toring onder hierdie omstandighede kan wees.

In this thesis we will consider two mathematical models on malaria transmission and patho- genesis. The transmission model is a human-mosquito interaction model that describes the development of malaria in a human population. It accounts for the various phases of the disease in humans and mosquitoes, together with treatment of both sick and partially im- mune humans. The partially immune humans (termed asymptomatic) have recovered from the worst of the symptoms, but can still transmit the disease. We will present a mathematical model consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the evolution of humans and mosquitoes in a range of malarial states. A new feature, in what turns out to be a key class, is the consideration of reinfected asymptomatic humans. The analysis will include establishment of the basic reproduction number, R0, and asymptotic analysis to draw out the major timescale of events in the process of malaria becoming non-endemic to endemic in a region following introduction of a few infected mosquitoes. We will study the model to ascertain possible time scale in which intervention programmes may yield better results. We will also show through our analysis of the model some evidence of disease control and possible eradication. The model on malaria pathogenesis describes the evolution of the disease in the human host. We model the effect of immune response on the interaction between malaria parasites and erythrocytes with a system of delay differential equations in which there is time lag between the advent of malaria merozoites in the blood and the training of adaptive immune cells. We will study the model to ascertain whether or not a single successful bite of an infected mosquito would result in death in the absence of innate and adaptive immune response. Stability analysis will be carried out on the parasite free state in both the immune and non immune cases. We will also do numerical simulations on the model to track the development of adaptive immunity and use asymptotic methods, assuming a small delay to study the evolution of the disease in a naive individual following the injection of small amount of merozoites into the blood stream. The effect of different levels of innate immune response to the pathogenesis of the disease will be considered in the simulations to elicit a possible immune level that can serve as a guide to producing a vaccine with high efficacy level.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT : Two applications of analytic techniques to combinatorial problems with number-theoretic flavours are shown. The first is an application of the real saddle point method to derive second-order asymptotic expansions for the number of solutions to the signum equation of a general class of sequences. The second is an application of more elementary methods to yield asymptotic expansions for the number of partitions of a large integer into powers of an integer b where each part has bounded multiplicity. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Ons toon twee toepassings van analitiese tegnieke op kombinatoriese probleme met getalteoretiese geure. Die eerste is ’n toepassing van die reële saalpuntmetode wat tweede-orde asimptotiese uitbreidings vir die aantal oplossings van die ‘signum’ vergelyking vir ’n algemene klas van rye aflewer. Die tweede is ’n toepassing van meer elementêre metodes wat asimptotiese uitbreidings vir die aantal partisies van ’n groot heelgetal in magte van ’n heelgetal b, waar elke deel ’n begrensde meervoudigheid het, aflewer

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Nanostring technology provides a new method to measure gene expressions. It's more sensitive than microarrays and able to do more gene measurements than RT-PCR with similar sensitivity. This system produces counts for each target gene and tabulates them. Counts can be normalized by using an Excel macro or nSolver before analysis. Both methods rely on data normalization prior to statistical analysis to identify differentially expressed genes. Alternatively, we propose to model gene expressions as a function of positive controls and reference gene measurements. Simulations and examples are used to compare this model with Nanostring normalization methods. The results show that our model is more stable, efficient, and able to control false positive proportions. In addition, we also derive asymptotic properties of a normalized test of control versus treatment.