Identifying high-risk areas for child maltreatment to ultimately aid public health agencies for interventions is necessary for protecting children at high risk. Rates of substantiated neglect and physical/emotional abuse in 2000-2002 are computed for the census tracts in the urban area of five counties in Metro Atlanta, Georgia, and analyzed using spatial regression to determine their relationships with twelve risk variables computed from the Vital Records births and the 2000 Census data. After accounting for multicollinearity among risk variables and spatial autocorrelation among observations for neighboring locations, it is found that high percentages of (1) births to non-married mothers, (2) births to mothers who smoked or drank alcohol during pregnancy, (3) unemployed males and females, and (4) single-parent families with children under age six best predict the rates of substantiated neglect, and that high percentage of births to mothers who smoked or drank alcohol during pregnancy best predicts the rates of substantiated physical/emotional abuse.

Boolean functions are an important area of study for cryptography. These functions, consisting merely of one's and zero's, are the heart of numerous cryptographic systems and their ability to provide secure communication. Boolean functions have application in a variety of such systems, including block ciphers, stream ciphers and hash functions. The continued study of Boolean functions for cryptography is therefore fundamental to the provision of secure communication in the future. This thesis presents an investigation into the analysis of Boolean functions and in particular, analysis of affine transformations with respect to both the design and application of Boolean functions for cryptography. Past research has often been limited by the difficulties arising from the magnitude of the search space. The research presented in this thesis will be shown to provide an important step towards overcoming such restrictions and hence forms the basis for a new analysis methodology. The new perspective allows a reduced view of the Boolean space in which all Boolean functions are grouped into connected equivalence classes so that only one function from each class need be established. This approach is a significant development in Boolean function research with many applications, including class distinguishing, class structures, self mapping analysis and finite field based s-box analysis. The thesis will begin with a brief overview of Boolean function theory; including an introduction to the main theme of the research, namely the affine transformation. This will be followed by the presentation of a fundamental new theorem describing the connectivity that exists between equivalence classes. The theorem of connectivity will form the foundation for the remainder of the research presented in this thesis. A discussion of efficient algorithms for the manipulation of Boolean functions will then be presented. The ability of Boolean function research to achieve new levels of analysis and understanding is centered on the availability of computer based programs that can perform various manipulations. The development and optimisation of efficient algorithms specifically for execution on a computer will be shown to have a considerable advantage compared to those constructed using a more traditional approach to algorithm optimisation. The theorem of connectivety will be shown to be fundamental in the provision many avenues of new analysis and application. These applications include the first non-exhaustive test for determining equivalent Boolean functions, a visual representation of the connected equivalence class structure to aid in the understanding of the Boolean space and a self mapping constant that enables enumeration of the functions in each equivalence class. A detailed survey of the classes with six inputs is also presented, providing valuable insight into their range and structure. This theme is then continued in the application Boolean function construction. Two important new methodologies are presented; the first to yield bent functions and the second to yield the best currently known balanced functions of eight inputs with respect to nonlinearity. The implementation of these constructions is extremely efficient. The first construction yields bent functions of a variety of algebraic order and inputs sizes. The second construction provides better results than previously proposed heuristic techniques. Each construction is then analysed with respect to its ability to produce functions from a variety of equivalence classes. Finally, in a further application of affine equivalence analysis, the impact to both s-box design and construction will be considered. The effect of linear redundancy in finite field based s-boxes will be examined and in particular it will be shown that the AES s-box possesses complete linear redundancy. The effect of such analysis will be discussed and an alternative construction to s-box design that ensures removal of all linear redundancy will be presented in addition to the best known example of such an s-box.

Fundamental to the electronic security of information and communication systems, is the correct use and application of appropriate ciphers. The strength of these ciphers, particularly in their ability to resist cryptanalytic attacks, directly in uences the overall strength of the entire system. The strength of the underlying cipher is reliant upon a robust structure and the carefully designed interaction between components in its architecture. Most importantly, however, cipher strength is critically dependent on the strength of the individual components of which it is comprised. Boolean functions and substitution boxes (s-boxes) are among the most common and essential components of ciphers. This is because they are able to provide a cipher with strengthening properties to resist known and potential cryptanalytic attacks. Thus, it is not surprising that significant research effort has been made in trying to develop ways of obtaining boolean functions and substitution boxes with optimal achievable measures of desirable cryptographic properties. Three of the main cryptographic properties required by strong boolean functions and s-boxes are nonlinearity, correlation immunity and propagation criteria, with different cryptographic applications requiring different acceptable measures of these and other properties. As combinations of cryptographic properties exhibited by functions can be conicting, finding cryptographically strong functions often means that a trade-off needs to be made when optimizing property values. Throughout this thesis, the term "optimization" specifically refers to seeking to obtain the best achievable combination of target property values which may be exhibited by boolean functions and s-boxes, regardless of whether the relevant properties are conflicting or complementary. This thesis focusses on a particular class of techniques for obtaining strong functions for cryptographic applications, referred to as heuristic methods or, simply, heuristics. Three new heuristic methods, each aimed at generating boolean functions optimizing one or more of the main cryptographic properties mentioned above, in addition to other desirable properties, are presented. The first of the new heuristic methods developed for this thesis focusses on generating boolean functions which are balanced and exhibit very high nonlinearities. Highly nonlinear balanced functions are critical to many cryptographic applications, as they provide good resistance to linear cryptanalytic attacks. This first method is based on the recursive modification of a starting bent function and is shown to be highly successful and efficient at generating numerous such functions, which also exhibit low autocorrelation values, in a very short computational time. The generation of balanced, correlation immune boolean functions that also exhibit the confl icting property of high nonlinearity is the focus of the second new heuristic method developed for this thesis. By concatenating selected pairs of lower-dimensional boolean functions together in the Walsh Hadamard transform domain, direct optimization for both resilience and nonlinearity was able to take place at each level towards and for the final function. This second method was able to generate examples of boolean functions with almost all of the best known optimal combinations of target property values. Experiments have shown the success of this method in consistently generating highly nonlinear resilient boolean functions, for a range of orders of resilience, with such functions possessing optimal algebraic degree. A third new heuristic method, which searches for balanced boolean functions which satisfy a non-zero degree of propagation criteria and exhibit high nonlinearity, is presented. Intelligent bit manipulations in the truth table of starting functions, based on fundamental relationships between boolean function transforms and measures, provide the design rationale for this method. Two new function generation schemes have been proposed for this method, to efficiently satisfy the requirements placed on the starting functions utilized in the computational process. An optional process attempts to increase the algebraic degree of the resulting functions, without sacrificing the optimalities that are achievable. The validity of this method is demonstrated through the success of various experimental trials. Switching the focus from single output boolean functions to multiple output boolean functions (s-boxes), the effectiveness of existing heuristic techniques (namely Genetic Algorithm, Hill Climbing Method and combined Genetic Algorithm/Hill Climbing) in primarily being applied to improve the nonlinearity of s-boxes of various dimensions, is investigated. The prior success of these heuristic techniques for improving the nonlinearity of boolean functions has been previously demonstrated, as has the success of hill climbing in isolation when applied to bijective s-boxes. An extension to the bijective s-box optimization work is presented in this thesis. In this new research, a Genetic Algorithm, Hill Climbing Method and the two in combination are applied to the nonlinearity and autocorrelation optimization of regular NxM s-boxes (N > M) to investigate the effectiveness and efficiency of each of these heuristics. A new breeding scheme, utilized in the Genetic Algorithm and combined Genetic Algorithm/Hill Climbing trials, is also presented. The success of experimental results compared to random regular s-box generation is demonstrated. New research in applying the Hill Climbing Method to construct NxM sboxes (N > M) required to meet specific property criteria is presented. The consideration of the characteristics desired by the constructed s-boxes largely dictated the generation process. A discussion on the generation process of the component functions is included. Part of the results produced by experimental trials were incorporated into a commonly used family of stream ciphers, thus further supporting the use of heuristic techniques as a useful means of obtaining strong functions suitable for incorporation into practical ciphers. An analysis of the cryptographic properties of the s-box used in the MARS block cipher, the method of generation and the computational time taken to obtain this s-box, led to the new research reported in this thesis on the generation of MARS-like s-boxes. It is shown that the application of the Hill Climbing Method, with suitable requirements placed on the component boolean functions, was able to generate multiple MARS-like s-boxes which satisfied the MARS sbox requirements and provided additional properties. This new work represented an alternative approach to the generation of s-boxes satisfying the MARS sbox property requirements but which are cryptographically superior and can be obtained in a fraction of the time than that which was taken to produce the MARS s-box. An example MARS-like s-box is presented in this thesis. The overall value of heuristic methods in generating strong boolean functions and substitution boxes is clearly demonstrated in this thesis. This thesis has made several significant contributions to the field, both in the development of new, specialized heuristic methods capable of generating strong boolean functions, and in the analysis and optimization of substitution boxes, the latter achieved through applying existing heuristic techniques.

Resumo: No planejamento dos gráficos de controle destinados ao monitoramento da média do processo, assume-se que esta permanece fixa em seu valor alvo até a ocorrência de uma causa especial, que a desloca. Em muitos processos, contudo, é mais razoável supor que a média oscila mesmo na ausência de causas especiais. Para descrever este comportamento oscilatório, tem-se utilizado o modelo autoregressivo de 1ª ordem, AR (1). Quando esta oscilação é grande, o melhor desempenho do gráfico de X é obtido com amostras unitárias. O mesmo não se observa com a carta de EWMA (exceto quando o parâmetro de ponderação  é próximo de um); os melhores desempenhos são obtidos com a adoção de amostras de tamanho n>1 e  pequeno, mesmo quando o objetivo é a detecção rápida de grandes deslocamentos da média. Neste estudo, utiliza-se como medida de desempenho o TES - tempo médio entre a ocorrência de uma mudança na posição em torno da qual a média oscila e sua sinalização pelo gráfico de controle. Quando a média do processo oscila, o TES passa a ser uma função do número esperado de visitas aos estados transientes de uma cadeia de Markov / Abstract: The design of the control charts for the process mean, assumes that this parameter remains fixed on its target value until the occurrence of a special cause that shifts it. In many cases, however, it is more reasonable to assume that the mean wanders even in the absence of special causes. To describe this wandering behavior, has used the AR(1) model. When the wandering behavior is responsible for significant proportion of the data variability, the best performance of the X chart is obtained with samples of size one (n=1). The same is not true with the EWMA control chart (except when the smoothing parameter  is very close to one), its best performance is achieved with the adoption of n>1 and small , even to detect large changes in the process mean position. In this study, the average time between the occurrence of a change in the process mean position and the signal (TES) - is used to assess the chart's performance. With the process mean wandering, this measure of performance becomes function of the expected number of visits to the transient states of a Markov chain / Orientador: Antonio Fernando Branco Costa / Coorientador: Marcela Aparecida Guerreiro Machado / Banca: Mauro Hugo Mathias / Banca: Fernando Antonio Elias Claro / Mestre

Ma thèse introduit cinq logiciels de trois différents domaines: le calcul parallèle et distribué, la biologie structurale computationnelle et la chémoinformatique. Le logiciel pour le calcul parallèle et distribué s'appelle PAR. PAR permet d'exécuter des expériences indépendantes de manière parallèle et distribuée. Les logiciels pour la biologie structurale computationnelle sont Durandal, EleKit et Fragger. Durandal exploite la propagation de contraintes géométriques afin d'accélérer l'algorithme de partitionnement exact pour des modèles de protéines. EleKit permet de mesurer la similarité électrostatique entre une petite molécule et la protéine qu'elle est conçue pour remplacer sur une interface protéine-protéine. Fragger est un cueilleur de fragments de protéines permettant de sélectionner des fragments dans la banque de protéines mondiale. Enfin, le logiciel de chémoinformatique est ACPC. ACPC permet l'encodage fin, d'une manière rotation-translation invariante, d'une molécule dans un ou une combinaison des trois espaces chimiques (électrostatique, stérique ou hydrophobe). ACPC est un outil de criblage virtuel qui supporte les requêtes consensus, l'annotation de la molécule requête et les processeurs multi-coeurs. / This thesis introduces five software useful in three different areas : parallel and distributed computing, computational structural biology and chemoinformatics. The software from the parallel and distributed area is PAR. PAR allows to execute independent experiments in a parallel and distributed way. The software for computational structural biology are Durandal, EleKit and Fragger. Durandal exploits the propagation of geometric constraints to accelerate the exact clustering algorithm for protein models. EleKit allows to measure the electrostatic similarity between a chemical molecule and the protein it is designed to replace at a protein-protein interface. Fragger is a fragment picker able to select protein fragments in the whole protein data-bank. Finally, the chemoinformatics software is ACPC. ACPC encodes in a rotation-translation invariant way a chemical molecule in any or a combination of three chemical spaces (electrostatic, steric or hydrophobic). ACPC is a ligand-based virtual screening tool supporting consensus queries, query molecule annotation and multi-core computers.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Marcio Eisencraft / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia da Informação, 2015. / Um sinal caótico e caracterizado como sendo determinístico aperiódico e limitado em amplitude apresentando também dependência sensível às condições iniciais. Esta ultima característica implica que se o sistema gerador dos sinais for iniciado com condições iniciais ligeiramente diferentes, os sinais obtidos apresentarão valores completamente distintos após um curto período de tempo. Apesar das aplicações de sinais caóticos em Telecomunicações serem estudadas há mais de duas d'escadas, poucas contribuições foram apresentadas sobre as características espectrais desses sinais. Geralmente, eles são caracterizados como sinais. De banda larga devido à periodicidade. Porém, em aplicações práticas, é necessário uma descrição bem mais detalhada. Nesse trabalho, investigam-se as características da Sequencia de Autocorrelação (SAC) e da Densidade Espectral de Potência (DEP) de sinais caóticos gerados por algumas famílias de mapas unidimensionais, buscando-se generalizar resultados anteriores da literatura. Para uma particular família de mapas lineares por partes, deduz-se analiticamente a SAC e a DEP e investiga-se a relação entre a banda essencial e o expoente de Lyapunov. Obtém-se numericamente também a SAC e a DEP de mapas com não-linearidades quadráticas e esboça-se uma aplicação desses resultados na determinação do espectro e da banda ocupada por sistemas de comunicação baseados em caos. / A chaotic signal is deterministic, aperiodic, limited in amplitude and has sensitive dependence on initial conditions. This last one implies that if the signals of the generator system starts with slightly different initial conditions, the obtained signals have completely different values after a short time. Although the chaotic signals applications in Telecommunications has been studied for over two decades, just a few studies have been published on the spectral characteristics of these signals. They are usually characterized as wideband signals due to the aperiodicity. However, in practical applications, a much more detailed description is necessary. In this work, we investigate the characteristics of the Autocorrelation Sequence (ACS) and Power Spectral Density (PSD) of chaotic signals generated by some families of one-dimensional maps, generalizing previous results in the literature. For a particular family of piecewise linear maps, we analytically deduce the ACS and the PSD and investigate the relationship between the occupied bandwidth and the Lyapunov exponent. For nonlinear quadratic maps, we obtain the ACS and PSD numerically. We also apply the results in the determination of the spectrum and the band occupied by chaos-based communication systems.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / We studied species richness, abundance and spatial-temporal distribution of tadpole communities in eight ponds in an area of Cerrado in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. We carried out this study during a rainy season (October 2009 to March 2010). We determined the spatial and temporal niche breadth by standardized Levins index, and we used null models to explore the patterns of niche overlap. Additionally, we evaluated the influence of environmental descriptors and spatial distribution of ponds on the studied communities using redundancy analysis (RDA) applied to three phases of the rainy season (outset, middle and the end). We recorded tadpoles of 18 species belonging to four families: Hylidae, Leiuperidae, Leptodactylidae, and Microhylidae. Most species was considered specialist regarding to spatial niche breadth a (BA <0.20), and generalist regarding the temporal niche breadth (BA> 0.50). The spatial niche overlap did not differ from expected by chance, while the temporal niche overlap was clearly not random. Niche overlap was negatively correlated with ecomorphological guilds, even after removed the phylogenetic effects. This pattern seems figure a mechanism to reduce the competitive pressure among ecologically similar species. In relation to environmental and spatial components, these presented differential influence and importance along the rainy season. In early season pond area and the percentage of marginal vegetation up to 30 cm height were the descriptors related to community organization. During the full rainy season, the percentage of marginal vegetation up to 40 cm height, percentage of flat margin profile, pond depth, as well as two spatial co-variables explained the spatial distribution of species, followed by pure environmental variables and by pure spatial variables. At the end of rainy season no environmental or spatial and descriptor was included in the model. The importance of environmental descriptors of spatial components of spatially structured descriptors varied throughout the rainy season, indicating that dynamic processes occurs along the time are responsible for the organization of the studied communities. / Estudamos a riqueza, a abundância e a distribuição espaço-temporal de comunidades de girinos em oito poças em uma área de cerrado no estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. Nós realizamos o presente estudo durante uma estação chuvosa (outubro de 2009 a março de 2010). Assim, determinamos a amplitude de nicho espacial e temporal, através do Índice de Levins padronizado e utilizamos modelos nulos para explorar os padrões de sobreposição de nicho. Adicionalmente, avaliamos influência de descritores ambientais e da distribuição espacial das poças sobre as comunidades de girinos estudadas. Para tanto, utilizamos análises de redundância (RDA), considerando três fases da estação chuvosa (início, meio e final). Registramos girinos de 18 espécies, pertencentes a quatro famílias: Hylidae, Leiuperidae, Leptodactylidae e Microhylidae. Em relação à amplitude de nicho espacial, a maioria das espécies foi considerada especialista em relação à utilização das poças (BA < 0,20), enquanto no nicho temporal a maioria foi considerada generalista (BA > 0,50). A sobreposição de nicho espacial não diferiu do esperado ao acaso, enquanto a sobreposição de nicho temporal foi claramente não aleatória. A sobreposição de nicho temporal apresentou correlação negativa com as guildas ecomorfológicas, mesmo após retirado o efeito filogenético. Tal padrão pode figurar um mecanismo de diminuição da pressão competitiva entre as espécies ecologicamente similares. Em relação aos componentes ambientais e espaciais, estes tiveram influência e importância diferenciadas ao longo da estação chuvosa. No início estação a área das poças e a porcentagem de vegetação marginal com até 30 cm de altura, foram os descritores relacionados à organização das comunidades. Durante a estação chuvosa plena, a porcentagem da vegetação marginal com até 40 cm de altura, a porcentagem de margens planas, a profundidade, bem como duas covariáveis espaciais explicaram a distribuição espacial das espécies, seguida pelas variáveis ambientais puras e pelas variáveis espaciais puras. Ao final da estação chuvosa nenhum descritor ambiental ou espacial foi incluído no modelo. A importância dos descritores ambientais, do componente espacial e dos descritores espacialmente estruturados variou ao longo da estação chuvosa, indicando que processos dinâmicos ao longo do tempo são responsáveis pela organização das comunidades larvárias estudadas.

This research approaches the prediction models application along with the usage of residual control charts to evaluate productive processes with characteristics of autocorrelation in its samples. The overall objective was to determine the Individual Measurement Control Charts (IMCC) and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) efficiency when applied to residuals of ARIMA class, to the outliers detection in autocorrelated processes, as well as identifying the autocorrelation influence and the amplitude of the outlier concerning the charts detection capacity. To each AR(1) and MA(1), 640.000 series were simulated, with varying strength and autocorrelation signal. After each series simulated residual stability verification, in the original series, outliers were inserted with varying amplitudes in a pre-determined observation. The series contaminated by the anomalous observation were again modeled and the residual were inscribed in IMCC and EWMA control charts, correctly registering the detected points. In the detection proportions to the outlier s variant pair, autocorrelation parameter and amplitude, non parametric tests were applied. The result obtained through the tests presented the superiority of the IMCC chart for both models. To what concerns the study of the autocorrelation parameter influence, regarding its signal and magnitude to both charts and AR(1) and MA(1) models, no significant difference could be verified. Therefore, the efficacy of IMCC control charts in the outliers detection through residuals in non independent processes could be confirmed. / A presente pesquisa aborda a aplicação de modelos de previsão juntamente com a utilização de gráficos de controle de resíduos para a avaliação de processos produtivos com características de autocorrelação em suas amostras. O objetivo geral foi determinar a eficiência dos gráficos de controle de observações individuais (IMCC) e de média móvel exponencialmente ponderada (EWMA) quando aplicados aos resíduos de modelos da classe AR(1) ou MA(1), para detecção de outliers em processos autocorrelacionados, além de evidenciar a influência da autocorrelação e da amplitude do outlier no poder de detecção dos gráficos. Foram simuladas 640.000 séries para cada modelo, variando a força e o sinal da autocorrelação. Após a verificação da estabilidade dos resíduos em cada série simulada, na série original, foram inseridos outliers com amplitudes variáveis em uma observação prédeterminada. As séries contaminadas pela observação anômala foram novamente modeladas e os resíduos foram grafados em gráficos de controle IMCC e EWMA, registrando-se os pontos detectados corretamente. Em cada gráfico, para o par de variáveis: parâmetro de autocorrelação e amplitude de outlier, gerou-se uma proporção de detecção, na qual foram aplicados testes de comparação não-paramétricos. O resultado obtido por meio dos testes evidenciou a superioridade do gráfico IMCC para ambos os modelos. Quanto ao estudo da influência do parâmetro de autocorrelação, referente ao sinal e a magnitude da mesma, para ambos os gráfico e modelos AR(1) e MA(1), não se verificou diferença significativa. Dessa forma, comprovou-se a eficácia dos gráficos de controle IMCC em detectar outliers por meio de resíduos em processos industriais autocorrelacionados.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:54:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 334137 bytes, checksum: 61d9cbb3713b0411ae25f6e3ba5342e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-12 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / In this study, the Wood model was adjusted to1069 lactations curve from dairy goats, for three different situations of residual structure. At first, the errors were considered as independent for all lactations, in the second as autoregressives of first order also for all lactations and in the third as independent for lactations that showed no residual autocorrelation and autoregressives of first order for lactations that showed, respectively, according the Durbin- Watson test. These three situations were compared by the percentage of convergence and the average and coefficients of variation of the mean square errors (MSE) and coefficients of determination (R2) adjusted. Subsequently, estimates of the variance components and genetic parameters for total milk yield (MY), for coefficients of the Wood model (a, b and c ) and for milk yield at peak (ymax), time to reach the peak (Tmax) and persistency factor (pers) of each lactation were obtained using the procedure REMLF90 (MISZTAL, 2002), with the objective to determine the influence of residual autocorrelation on heritability (h2) and repeatability (r) estimates and of animals rank according to their breeding values. Two genetic evaluations were made, one for MY with coefficients of the Wood model and other for MY with ymax, tmax e pers. The statistical model included the random effects of animal, permanent environmental and error, the fixed effects of contemporary group (year - season of kidding), number of kids per birth, genetic groups and kidding order, and the days in milk (linear) and age at kidding (linear and quadratic) covariates. In the study of individual fitting of the Wood model to lactation curves differences between the three cases of residual structure were very small, then it was not possible to give a residual structure that results in better fit of the model of Wood. The low values for h2 and r estimates for a, b, c coefficients in this three situations indicated that the gains obtained by selection for the shape of the curve was small. The different residual structures used influence estimates of the parameters h2, r and the correlations between traits. In addition, caused differences in animals rank, based on their breeding values of all traits. Therefore, in applying the Wood model, the correction of errors that are not independent must be done. / Neste estudo o modelo de Wood foi ajustado à 1.069 curvas de lactações de cabras, sob três diferentes situações de estrutura residual. Na primeira, os erros foram considerados como independentes para todas as lactações, na segunda como autoregressivos de primeira ordem também para todas as lactações e na terceira como independentes e autoregressivos de primeira ordem para as lactações que não apresentaram e apresentaram autocorrelação residual, respectivamente, segundo o teste Durbin-Watson. Essas três situações foram comparadas entre si pelos percentuais de convergência, e pelas médias e coeficientes de variação (CV) dos quadrados médios do erros (QME) e dos coeficientes de determinação (R2) ajustados. Posteriormente, as estimativas dos componentes de variância e dos parâmetros genéticos para a produção total de leite (PL), para os coeficientes a , b e c do modelo de Wood e para produção de leite no pico (ymax), tempo para atingir o pico (tmax) e fator de persistência (pers) de cada lactação, foram obtidas utilizando-se o aplicativo REMLF90 (Misztal, 2002), com objetivo de verificar a influência da autocorrelação residual sobre as estimativas de herdabilidade (h2) e repetibilidade (r) e sobre a classificação dos animais de acordo com seus valores genéticos. Foram feitas duas avaliações genéticas multicaracterísticas de PL com a , b e c e PL com ymax, tmax e pers, por meio de um modelo que incluiu como efeitos aleatórios o animal, o ambiente permanente e o resíduo; como efeitos fixos o grupo contemporâneo (anoestação de parto), número de crias por parto, grupos genéticos e ordem de parto e como co- variáveis a duração da lactação (linear) e a idade da cabra ao parto (linear e quadrática). No estudo do ajuste do modelo de Wood às curvas de lactação individuais foram encontradas diferenças muito pequenas entre as três situações de estrutura residual, não sendo possível indicar uma estrutura residual que resulte em melhor ajuste do modelo de Wood. Os baixos valores de h2 e r para os parâmetros a , b e c sob as três situações indicaram que os ganhos obtidos pela seleção para o formato da curva foram pequenos. As diferentes estruturas residuais abordadas influenciaram as estimativas dos parâmetros h2 e r e das correlações entre as características estudadas. Além disso, levaram a diferentes classificações dos animais, baseadas nos valores genéticos de todas as características estudadas. Portanto, ao aplicar o modelo de Wood, a correção dos erros que não forem independentes deverá ser realizada.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T15:04:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JoeltonFB_DISSERT.pdf: 887273 bytes, checksum: d3d21c6f9340a0a9d396b1c840cef67e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-19 / The chart of control of Hotelling T2 has been the main statistical device used in monitoring multivariate processes. Currently the technological development of control systems and automation enabled a high rate of collection of information of the production systems in very short time intervals, causing a dependency between the results of observations. This phenomenon known as auto correlation causes in the statistical control of the multivariate processes a high rate of false alarms, prejudicing in the chart performance. This entails the violation of the assumption of independence and normality of the distribution. In this thesis we considered not only the correlation between two variables, but also the dependence between observations of the same variable, that is, auto correlation. It was studied by simulation, the bi variate case and the effect of auto correlation on the performance of the T2 chart of Hotelling. / O grafico de controle T2 de Hotelling tem sido o principal dispositivo estat?stico utilizado no monitoramento de processos multivariados. Atualmente com o desenvolvimento tecnol?gico dos sistemas de controle e automa??o possibilitou uma elevada taxa de coletas das informa??es dos sistemas produtivos em intervalos de tempo muito curto, provocando uma depend?ncia entre os resultados das observa??es. Este fen?meno conhecido como autocorrela??o provoca no controle estat?stico de processos multivariado uma grande quantidade de alarmes falsos, prejudicando no desempenho do gr?fico. Isto acarreta na viola??o do pressuposto de independ?ncia e da normalidade da distribui??o. Nesta disserta??o considerou-se n?o s? a correla??o entre duas vari?veis, mas tamb?m a depend?ncia entre observa??es de uma mesma vari?vel, isto e, a autocorrela??o. Estudou-se, por meio de simula??o, o caso bivariado e o efeito da autocorrela??o no desempenho do gr?fico T2 de Hotelling