Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-02-18T07:44:25Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Furtado de Souza - 2015.pdf: 1240033 bytes, checksum: 68d41b7558cbfa86bcefad362ea557ab (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-02-18T07:47:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Furtado de Souza - 2015.pdf: 1240033 bytes, checksum: 68d41b7558cbfa86bcefad362ea557ab (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-18T07:47:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Furtado de Souza - 2015.pdf: 1240033 bytes, checksum: 68d41b7558cbfa86bcefad362ea557ab (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Statistics in public school from Goiás: use and disuse. We´ll present information that allow tracing High School student profile that have frequency in public schools in state of Goiás, in particular in the cities of Rio Verde and Trindade. With this profile, we can analyze the behavior of this student, his preferences and difficulties. We also want to get attention of students and teachers about the low relevance of the statistical content and its saturated presence in ENEM. We’ll present a methodology of teaching and learning to calculate the arithmetic average (simple and weighted). The Statistics is enough and useful in many sector of our economy, agriculture, trade, researches and science, generally speaking. In many segments or circumstances of our life, we analyze the data around us. The news present us daily numbers data represented through charts and tables, which are an easy way and well-organized communication, language of mathematics. Because of this, Statistics is considered a branch of Applied Mathematics that´s always been part of human being. Therefore, Statistics has for its principal objectives to get, organize e analyze data, which goal is to describe and explain them. Through the development of this work, we’ll retract data presented by the government about the results of the external evaluations, like Saego and Ideb, and compare to the results gotten by carrying out a research with the students from public schools. For the research, we select a random sample of 1060 students enrolled in high school, from the cities named before and applied a questionnaire, designating a quantitative survey. With the Excel and the Statistic Software R, we made analysis and graphics. According to the results from Ideb 2013, the private education got average 5,4 and the public education 3,4. Data of the research indicate the preference of 25.38 for Mathematics, which caused surprise. To teach how to calculate average, we use a concrete examples such as class notes, ages etc. We also resort to problem solving and field research. In this sense, we looked for the best way to awaken in students the spirit of search and pleasure in learning. We believe that this way we will have a quality public school. / Estatística nas escolas públicas de Goiás: uso e desuso. Vamos apresentar informações que permitem traçar o perfil do aluno do Ensino Médio que frequenta escolas públicas do Estado de Goiás, em específico, nas cidades de Rio Verde e Trindade. Com esse perfil, podemos analisar o comportamento desse aluno, preferências e dificuldades. Queremos também chamar a atenção de alunos e professores sobre a baixa relevância que é dada ao conteúdo de estatística e sua saturada presença no ENEM. Vamos enfatizar o cálculo da média aritmética (simples e ponderada). A Estatística é eficiente e útil em diversos setores da nossa economia, agricultura, comércio, pesquisas e ciências de modo geral. Em vários segmentos ou circunstâncias de nossa vida, analisamos os dados que estão à nossa volta. Os noticiários nos apresentam diariamente dados numéricos representados através de gráficos e tabelas, que são uma forma fácil de comunicação e bem organizada, própria da linguagem matemática. Por isso a Estatística é considerada um ramo da Matemática Aplicada que sempre fez parte da vida do ser humano. Sendo assim a Estatística tem como principais objetivos, obter, organizar e analisar dados, cuja finalidade é descrevê-los e explicá-los. No desenvolvimento deste trabalho, utilizamos dados apresentados pelo governo referente aos resultados das avaliações externas, como Saego e Ideb e comparar com os resultados obtidos com a realização de uma pesquisa com os alunos da rede pública. Para a realização da pesquisa, selecionamos uma amostra aleatória de 1060 alunos matriculados em escolas do Ensino Médio, das cidades acima citadas e aplicamos um questionário, designando uma pesquisa quantitativa. Com a ajuda do Excel e do software estatístico R, fizemos as análises e gráficos. De acordo com os resultados do Ideb 2013, o ensino privado obteve média 5,4 e o ensino público 3,4. Dados da pesquisa indicam a preferência de 25,38% pela disciplina de Matemática, o que gerou surpresa. Para o ensino do cálculo da média, utilizamos exemplos concretos como as notas da turma, as idades etc. Também recorremos à resolução de problemas e pesquisa de campo. Neste sentido, buscamos a melhor maneira de despertar nos educandos o espírito da busca e o prazer em aprender. Acreditamos que dessa forma teremos uma escola pública de qualidade.

SOUZA, R. M. \\Estatstica em Bioequivaência: Garantia na qualidade do medicamento generico\". 2008. 42 f Dissertação (Mestrado em Saude na Comunidade) Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeir~ao Preto - USP Como alternativa aos medicamentos de uso humano de grande circulação no mercado brasileiro foram regulamentados os medicamentos genericos, conforme a Lei dos genericos no 9787/99, que evidenciaram os estudos de bioequivalência e biodisponibilidade no Brasil com o objetivo de avaliar a bioequivalência das formulações genericas, tomando-se como referências os medicamentos ja existentes no mercado e com eficacia comprovada. Duas formulações de um mesmo medicamento são consideradas bioequivalentes se suas biodisponibilidades não apresentam evidências de diferenças signicativas segundo limites clinicamente especificados, denominados limites de bioequivalência. Os estudos de bioequivalência são realizados mediante a administração de duas formulações, sendo que uma esta em teste e a outra e a referência, em um numero de voluntários previamente denidos, usando-se um planejamento experimental, na maioria das vêzes do tipo crossover. Apos a retirada de sucessivas amostras sanguíneas ou urinárias em tempos pre-determinados, estudam-se alguns parâmetros farmacocinéticos como area sob a curva de concentrac~ao, concentrac~ao maxima do farmaco e tempo em que a concentração ao maxima ocorre. Esta dissertação de mestrado introduz alguns conceitos basicos de bioequivalênncia para, logo em seguida, apresentar analises Bayesianas para medidas de bioequivalência tanto univariada como multivariada assumindo a distribuição ao normal multivariada para os dados e também a distribuição de Student multivariada. Uma aplicação a de exemplicar o que foi introduzido e apresentada e, para o conjunto de dados em estudo têm, por meio de criterios de seleção ao de modelos, evidências favoraveis a escolha dos modelos multivariados para a condução deste estudo de bioequivalência media. / SOUZA, R. M. \\Statistics on Bioequivalence: Guarantee in quality of generic drug\". 2008. 42 s Dissertation (Master Degree) Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeir~ao Preto - USP As an alternative to medicines for human use of great movement in Brazil, the use of generic medicines were regulated, according to the law of the generic no 9787/99, which establish the studies of bioavailability and bioequivalence in Brazil in order to evaluate bioequivalence of generic formulations, considering as reference existing medicinal products, with proved ecacy. Two formulations of the same drug are considered bioequivalents if your bioavailability do not present evidence of signicant dierences according to clinically specied limits known as bioequivalence limits. Bioequivalence studies are carried out by the administration of two formulations (one is in test and the other one is the reference) in a pre-dened number of volunteers using an experimental plan that is often the crossover one. After the withdrawn of successive blood or urinary samples in predetermined intervals, some pharmacokinetic parameters were studied, such as area under concentration curve, maximum concentration of drug and time that the maximum concentration occurs. This dissertation introduces some basic concepts of bioequivalence and following that, it is presented Bayesian analysis for both as univariate and as multivariate bioequivalence measures assuming the multivariate normal distribution for the data and also the distribution of multivariate t student distribution. An application in order to illustrate what was introduced is presented in this work, and by using means of selection criteria of models, it was observed that for all data on study, there were evidences that lead to choose the multivariates models in order to conduct this study of average bioequivalence.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T15:14:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoMireilleSato.pdf: 2602186 bytes, checksum: b65d61aed935a5e4bd3463d40d50e82e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-09 / The global energy scenario points to the need for alternative energy sources, given the dependence on finite fossil fuels and highly polluting. Among the clean energy resources, there is the wind, inexhaustible resource that gives the transformation of the kinetic energy contained in wind into mechanical energy through a turbine The global wind power available is around 53.000 TWh /year , since in terms of wind potential 143.000 MW fit the Brazilian wind potential and of this total 1.360 MW give the state of Paraná, locus of this study . Within this context , this study aims to determine the wind potential for microgeneration and minigeneration Cascavel and region, and has the following specific objectives determine the average speed of winds and annual seasonally each municipality target of this investigation, determining the annual wind potential of each target district this investigation depending on the heights of the tower 10 , 25 and 40 meters, analyzing the annual energy required by a residence and a water pump comparing it with the annual energy generated by the wind power system for all municipalities in question and the type of wind development more suitable for the use of wind power available for each target municipality of this investigation.The methodology is to develop histograms of wind speed in the municipalities of Assis Chateaubriand, Cascavel, Foz do Iguaçu, Guaíra, Palotina, Santa Helena, São Miguel do Iguaçu and Toledo , as well as describe the wind speed variable flow by Function Weibull probability density , determine the wind potential and finally achieve the required and generated energy simulation . At the end of the work can be concluded that only the city of Cascavel has a good wind potential . / O cenário energético mundial aponta para a necessidade de fontes alternativas de energia, haja vista a dependência de combustíveis fósseis finitos e altamente poluentes. Dentre os recursos energéticos limpos, tem-se a energia eólica, recurso inesgotável que se dá pela transformação da energia cinética contida nos ventos em energia mecânica por meio de um aerogerador. A energia eólica mundial disponível é da ordem de 53.000 TWh/ano, já em termos de potencial eólico 143.000 MW cabem ao potencial eólico brasileiro e deste total 1.360 MW conferem ao estado do Paraná, lócus deste estudo. Dentro deste contexto, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal determinar o potencial eólico para microgeração e minigeração de Cascavel e região, bem como tem por objetivos específicos determinar a velocidade média dos ventos anual e sazonalmente de cada município alvo desta investigação, determinar o potencial eólico anual de cada município alvo desta investigação em função das alturas da torre de 10, 25 e 40 metros, analisar a energia anual requerida por uma residência e de uma bomba de água comparando-a com a energia anual gerada pelo sistema eólico para todos os municípios em questão e indicar o tipo de empreendimento eólico mais adequado para o aproveitamento do potencial eólico disponível para cada município alvo da desta investigação. A metodologia consiste em elaborar histogramas de velocidade do vento dos municípios de Assis Chateubriand, Cascavel, Foz do Iguaçu, Guaíra, Palotina, Santa Helena, São Miguel do Iguaçu e Toledo, assim como descrever o fluxo variável de velocidade do vento por meio da Função Densidade de Probabilidade Weibull, determinar o potencial eólico e por fim realizar a simulação de energia requerida e gerada. Ao final do trabalho pode-se concluir que apenas o município de Cascavel tem um potencial eólico satisfatório.

This PhD thesis focuses on using time series models for counts in modelling and forecasting a special type of count series called intermittent series. An intermittent series is a series of non-negative integer values with some zero values. Such series occur in many areas including inventory control of spare parts. Various methods have been developed for intermittent demand forecasting with Croston’s method being the most widely used. Some studies focus on finding a model underlying Croston’s method. With none of these studies being successful in demonstrating an underlying model for which Croston’s method is optimal, the focus should now shift towards stationary models for intermittent demand forecasting. This thesis explores the application of a class of models for count data called the Integer Autoregressive Moving Average (INARMA) models. INARMA models have had applications in different areas such as medical science and economics, but this is the first attempt to use such a model-based method to forecast intermittent demand. In this PhD research, we first fill some gaps in the INARMA literature by finding the unconditional variance and the autocorrelation function of the general INARMA(p,q) model. The conditional expected value of the aggregated process over lead time is also obtained to be used as a lead time forecast. The accuracy of h-step-ahead and lead time INARMA forecasts are then compared to those obtained by benchmark methods of Croston, Syntetos-Boylan Approximation (SBA) and Shale-Boylan-Johnston (SBJ). The results of the simulation suggest that in the presence of a high autocorrelation in data, INARMA yields much more accurate one-step ahead forecasts than benchmark methods. The degree of improvement increases for longer data histories. It has been shown that instead of identification of the autoregressive and moving average order of the INARMA model, the most general model among the possible models can be used for forecasting. This is especially useful for short history and high autocorrelation in data. The findings of the thesis have been tested on two real data sets: (i) Royal Air Force (RAF) demand history of 16,000 SKUs and (ii) 3,000 series of intermittent demand from the automotive industry. The results show that for sparse data with long history, there is a substantial improvement in using INARMA over the benchmarks in terms of Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) for the one-step ahead forecasts. However, for series with short history the improvement is narrower. The improvement is greater for h-step ahead forecasts. The results also confirm the superiority of INARMA over the benchmark methods for lead time forecasts.

Combining multiple forecasts in order to generate a single, more accurate one is a well-known approach. A simple average of forecasts has been found to be robust despite theoretically better approaches, increasing availability in the number of expert forecasts, and improved computational capabilities. The dominance of a simple average is related to the small sample sizes and to the estimation errors associated with more complex methods. We study the role that expert correlation, multiple experts, and their relative forecasting accuracy have on the weight estimation error distribution. The distributions we find are used to identify the conditions when a decision maker can confidently estimate weights versus using a simple average. We also propose an improved expert weighting approach that is less sensitive to covariance estimation error while providing much of the benefit from a covariance optimal weight. These two improvements create a new heuristic for better forecast aggregation that is simple to use. This heuristic appears new to the literature and is shown to perform better than a simple average in a simulation study and by application to economic forecast data.

Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to quantify if using an average intensity projection (AIP) scan or a 30% phase (mid-ventilation surrogate, MidV) scan as the reference image for patient position verification affects reproducibility of lung cancer patient alignment under free-breathing cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) image guidance and to analyze the effects of common clinical issues on registration variability. Methods: AIPs were retrospectively created for 16 lung patients (14 SBRT, 2 conventional treatments) originally planned/treated using the 30% phase MidV surrogate scan as reference. The study included 3-5 CBCTs from each patient. Registrations were performed between the AIP-CBCT and between the MidV-CBCT by 5 individuals (student, medical physics resident, medical resident, medical physicist, and attending physician) using MIM 6.2 image registration platform (Beachwood, OH). The images were rigidly registered, internal tumor volume (ITV) contours were displayed, and no rotational adjustments were allowed to reflect real treatment conditions. Additionally, the registrations for AIP-CBCT and MidV-CBCT were repeated 3 times by one individual for intra-observer variability assessment. Patient setup rotations, tumor volume, tumor motion, and breathing variability were estimated for correlation with registration variability. Results: The magnitude of the average intra-observer standard deviations from the lateral (LAT), anterior-posterior (AP), and superior-inferior (SI) directions for the AIP/CBCT and MidV/CBCT registrations were 0.9 mm and 1.2 mm, respectively. The magnitude of the average inter-observer standard deviations for the AIP/CBCT and MidV/CBCT were 1.7 mm and 1.8 mm, respectively. Average discrepancies over the whole population were found to be small; however, some individual patients presented high variability. Patient-specific cases with high variability were analyzed and observations on its potential causes are discussed. Conclusion: The differences in alignment using AIP versus MidV as the reference images are, when averaged over the population studied, very small and clinically irrelevant for PTV margins > 5mm; however, individual patients may be impacted in a clinically relevant manner if smaller margins, 3 mm and below, are used instead.

Researchers recommended investing according to the long only momentum (MOM) strategy to generate excess returns for private investors. The general problem of this study was that it was unclear when to enter and when to exit declining financial markets to avoid larger losses and to improve the overall performance with the MOM strategy. Therefore, it was important to understand the influence of a timing indicator on the MOM strategy. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between different moving average (MA) settings, the MOM strategy, and the performance of the returns from the construction of small U.S. stock portfolios. The research question was what MA setting as a strategy adjustment could improve the MOM strategy performance for small portfolios of U.S. stocks. A quasi-experimental research design was chosen to answer this research question. For the methods and analysis, simple- and exponential- MA, 2 econometric models, and abnormal Sharpe ratios were computed on the sample basis of 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks. The computations allowed me to determine the optimal trading frequencies for the MA MOM strategy. The key result was that the MA MOM strategy could improve the MOM strategy on average by 0.16% per month. The optimal trading frequency for the MA MOM strategy with $5,000 was tri yearly through which (0.90 - 1.85 %) net monthly return could be achieved. The MOM strategy can be adjusted by a simple moving average (SMA) indicator on a 6 versus 36-month basis as a recommendation. This study might contribute to positive social change by adjusting the MOM strategy, which specifically impacts private investors in declining stock markets to improve the overall performance when trading the MA MOM strategy.

In environmental studies, measurements of interest are often taken on multiple variables. The results of spatial data analyses can be substantially affected by the spatial configuration of the sites where measurements are taken. Hence, optimal designs which result in data guaranteeing efficient statistical inferences need to be studied. We study optimal designs on two large classes of spatial regions with respect to three design criteria, which were prediction, covariance parameter estimation, and empirical prediction. The first class of regions includes those in the plane, where Euclidean distance is used. The performance of the optimal designs is compared to that of randomly chosen designs. Optimal designs for a small example and a relatively large example are obtained. For the small example, complete enumeration of all possible designs is computationally feasible. For the large example, the computational difficulty in searching for the optimal spatial sampling design is overcome by a simulated annealing algorithm. The second class of spatial regions includes streams and rivers, where the distance is defined as distance along the stream network. A moving average construction is used to establish valid covariance and cross-covariance models using stream distance. Optimal designs for small and large examples are obtained. An application of our methodology to a real stream network is included. We discuss the impact of asymmetry in the cross covariance function on the spatial multivariate design. The relationship between multivariate optimal design and univariate optimal design if the multivariate design is restricted to be completely collocated is studied. The efficiency lost if we consider the design that is optimal within the class of collocated designs is discussed.

Venturi flowmeters have been used to measure flow in piped systems for over 100 years (Finnemore & Franzini, 2006). There has been much research on the performance of Venturi flowmeters and for that reason they have become popular flowmeters used in various municipal and industrial applications. Venturi flowmeters can be calibrated in a laboratory setting to find their performance characteristics. In order for the flowmeter to achieve optimum performance, the flowmeter should be installed with sufficient length of straight pipe immediately upstream of the flowmeter. Often Venturi flowmeters that are not installed in ideal conditions produce errors and uncertainty is introduced to the flow measurement. This study used multiple tap sets on Venturi flowmeters in order to reduce error and uncertainty when a Venturi flowmeter is installed in non-ideal conditions. The multiple taps sets were used to measure an average of the hydraulic pressure within the flowmeter.

Conventional production of meat products from ruminant animals in the United States requires inputs including the cultivation and nitrogen fertilization of annual grains such as corn and barley, and transportation of cattle and grain to feedlots. Consumers have concerns about the impact of feedlot conditions on animal health, and about the implications of pharmaceutical inputs such as growth hormones and antibiotics on the environment and human health. These concerns have led to a growing interest in pasturefinished meat production by consumers. Such smaller-scale livestock production systems can be healthier and lower-stress for animals, are integrated into local food systems and are more transparent to consumers, and have higher potential profitability for producers than traditional ruminant production methods. There is a strong market for pasture-finished beef products, and prices for naturally or organically raised beef have remained well above feedlot-produced product prices. There is also concern about the impact of ruminant production on the environment, including air and water pollution from feedlot production and greenhouse gasses that are emitted from ruminant animals during feed digestion. This thesis project explored the potential of a beef production system based on perennial legumes, including the non-bloating legume birdsfoot trefoil (BFT; Lotus corniculatus L.) for producing meat products from cattle while reducing concentrate feeding and methane production. The condensed tannins that are produced by BFT bind proteins in the rumen but allow them to be digested in the abomasum and intestines, which in turn leads to better utilization of forage nutrients during the finishing period and higher gains or milk production. The higher digestibility of legumes compared with grasses reduces methane emissions in cattle both through higher digestibility of the forage and through direct impacts on methanogens operating in the rumen. As reported in this thesis, steers finished on BFT gained significantly more weight per day than steers fed another perennial forage legume, cicer milkvetch, but did not gain as rapidly as feedlot-fed steers. At the end of summer grazing, the blood plasma of pasture-fed steers was lower in saturated and omega-6 fatty acids and higher in transvaccenic and omega-3 fatty acids than the blood plasma of feedlot-fed steers. When beef cows grazed grass and legume pastures, enteric methane emissions were lower on the legume pastures than the grass pasture. These results demonstrate that, compared with other feed sources, perennial legume pastures used for cattle production can improve cattle gains and reduce environmental impacts.