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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
171

Effects of Perfluoroalkyl Acids on In Ovo Toxicity and Gene Expression in the Domestic Chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus)

Cassone, Cristina 21 August 2012 (has links)
Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are a family of synthetic substances used in a wide variety of consumer and industrial applications, including non-stick and stain-resistant products. PFAAs, specifically perfluorinated sulfonates and carboxylates, are chemically stable and virtually non-biodegradable in the environment. In recent years, PFAAs have been detected in tissues and blood of humans and wildlife. Furthermore, PFAAs have a tendency to bioaccumulate and biomagnify in biota. Perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoate are known to be toxic when animals are exposed to environmentally-relevant levels, but scientists and regulators are challenged with determining and predicting their modes of action. There is some evidence to suggest that PFAAs can impact the thyroid hormone (TH) pathway and neurodevelopment. The studies presented in this thesis investigated the developmental effects and potential modes of action of newer PFAAs that are being introduced into the global market place. Egg injection experiments were performed in domestic chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) embryos to assess the in ovo toxicity of perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS) and perfluorohexanoate (PFHxA) during development. Real-time RT-PCR was used to measure the transcription of candidate genes in the liver and cerebral hemisphere of day 21-22 embryos. Candidate genes were selected based on their responsiveness to PFAA exposure in an in vitro screening assay conducted previously. In ovo exposure to PFHxS decreased embryo pipping success and overall growth at 38,000 ng/g; several orders of magnitude higher than concentrations reported in wild bird eggs. The expression of TH-responsive genes, including type II and III 5'-deiodinase, neurogranin, and octamer motif binding factor 1, were induced. In addition, PFHxS diminished free thyroxine (T4) levels in plasma. PFHxA had no affect on pipping success, gene expression or T4 levels in chicken embryos at the doses assessed. The transcriptional profiles in the cerebral hemisphere of chicken embryos exposed to 890 and 38,000 ng/g PFHxS were compared to a solvent control using microarray technology. The expression of 78 different genes were significantly altered (fold change > 1.5, p < 0.001) by PFHxS. Functional analysis showed that PFHxS affected genes involved in tissue development and morphology and cellular assembly and organization. Pathway and interactome analysis suggested that gene expression may be affected through integrin receptors and signaling pathways via TH–dependent and –independent modes of action. It is expected that the findings presented in this thesis will be of general relevance and importance to regulatory agencies and of interest to research scientists and risk assessors.
172

Host-Parasite Interactions in Natural Populations

Halvarsson, Peter January 2016 (has links)
Parasitism is one of the most common ways of living and it has arised in many taxa. Parasites feed and live inside or on their hosts resulting in both long and short term consequences for the host. This thesis is exploring the phenotypic and genotypic effects of animals living with parasitic infections. I have been studying three different parasite groups and their associated host species: the great snipe, a lekking freshwater wader bird that migrates between Africa and Northern Europe; the tree sparrow, a stationary passerine found close to human settlements and lastly the water vole, a large rodent living in riparian habitats. Avian malaria is one of the most commonly studied parasites affecting birds. Atoxoplasma, an intestinal protozoan parasite is less studied but is thought to be endemic in free-ranging birds. Given the freshwater habitat great snipes inhabit, a prevalence of 30% avian malaria infections is not high and that the prevalence fluctuated among years. Sequencing of the avian malaria cytochrome b gene revealed that parasites are similar to avian malaria parasites found in African birds suggesting that they were infected on the wintering grounds in Africa. Tree sparrows had few malaria infected individuals, a result that is consistent with other studies of stationary birds at high latitudes. Atoxoplasma infections were common in tree sparrows and capture-recapture analyses show decreased survival in infected compared to uninfected birds and signs of lower mating success among infected. Genetic analyses comparing the transcriptome between mated and unmated great snipe males revealed that the genotype is important for mating success and health status for some of the expressed genes. That variations in some of these genes are involved in maintaining a good health status and mating success supports handicap models for sexual selection in this lek mating system. The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a part of the immune system and it contains genes involved in immune response. In water voles, a number of new MHC alleles were identified. Based on their in silico phenotype they were grouped into supertypes to facilitate studies on how helminth infections affect the MHC diversity in the water voles. Some of these MHC supertypes provided resistance to one helminth species, but the same supertype caused the opposite effect for other helminth parasites. Overall, parasites are a driving force for maintaining genetic diversity and parasite infections lowers survival rate, which would lead to a lower lifetime breeding success.
173

A Preliminary Report on the Effect of Roentgen Rays on the Formed Elements of Avian Blood

Berger, Gillett 08 1900 (has links)
This problem consists primarily in determining the numerical value of the leukocytes after different amounts of roentgen rays had been applied to the subjects. The Atomic Energy Commission set up a problem concerning the effects of roentgen rays on the fertility in chickens, and grants were given to two institutions to study this. The blood work in this paper was an off-shoot from one of these five fertility grants.
174

The occurrence and consequences of conspecific brood parasitism in the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea)

Tucker, Anna 25 April 2014 (has links)
Brood parasites avoid costs associated with raising young by adding eggs to another individual’s clutch and providing no parental care. When conspecific brood parasitism occurs in species with high parental investment, we expect hosts to suffer costs for raising an enlarged brood. Here I describe conspecific brood parasitism (CBP) in the prothonotary warbler using maternal exclusion analyses of 333 family groups. I found that 23.4% of clutches contained at least one offspring that was not matched to the social mother and determined that parasitism seems to be an opportunistic tactic. Hosts had lower average annual reproductive success than non-hosts, but CBP did not affect adult survival or nestling body condition and likelihood of recruitment. Clutches with CBP received less provisioning from the male, but not female, parent. Future research is needed to understand the effects of density and competition on the breeding behaviors of this and other similar species.
175

Beyond avian influenza : policy considerations for the implementation of a 'one health' approach in developing countries

Okello, Anna Louise January 2013 (has links)
The global One Health movement has become firmly entrenched in both political and scientific discourse pertaining to emerging infectious diseases in the past decade. Since the discovery of the H5N1 strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Hong Kong in 1997, the promotion of more holistic programmes for the control of emerging infectious disease has garnered “unprecedented support” in terms of donor funding and political mobilisation (Scoones 2010). Advocates of One Health argue that intersectoral approaches promoting better communication between the veterinary, medical and environmental disciplines at all levels of governance make not only sound economic sense, they are fundamental to the “new approach” required to address the growing disease threats of the 21st century. However, despite international endorsement of the One Health rhetoric, there is growing pressure to now “turn the rhetoric into reality” (Okello et al 2011). Using a multiple, embedded case study methodology, this thesis seeks to examine questions surrounding the practical implementation of One Health interventions, particularly in developing countries which experience limited resources and competing health priorities. Through examining the livestock and public health policy processes at both local and national levels in Uganda and Nigeria, I attempt to identify whether policy spaces exist for the formal inclusion of One Health approaches in future policy decisions. Furthermore, by scrutinising the current internationally dominant One Health narratives in light of global health governance perspectives and the emerging One Health Global Network, I question whether One Health can be better “packaged” to include endemic diseases and a more focussed sustainable livelihoods approach; arguably inciting greater motivation for developing countries to truly participate. Data from my three empirical chapters are presented in the context of three overriding “One Health propositions” for consideration; by questioning “whose world, whose health”, I aim to delve further into the issues of not whether, but how this “new health paradigm” can be operationalised, and how to address the potential gaps which may ultimately prevent One Health from becoming a truly global phenomenon.
176

Níveis dietéticos de zinco e manganês sobre o desempenho, disponibilidade e mineralização óssea de frangos de corte / Levels of dietary zinc and manganese on performance, availability and bone mineralization of broilers

Pacheco, Bruna Helena Carvalho 01 October 2012 (has links)
Foram realizados dois experimentos com o objetivo de determinar a concentração de zinco e manganês na dieta de frangos de corte sobreas características de desempenho, disponibilidade e mineralização óssea, além da comparação de métodos para quantificar o grau de mineralização óssea. Em cada um dos experimentos foram distribuídos 320 pintinhos machos em delineamento experimental inteiramente casualizado, com oito tratamentos e cinco repetições de oito aves cada. O diferencial existente entre o experimento um e dois está relacionado com o micromineral avaliado, sendo o zinco e o manganês, respectivamente. No experimento um, uma dieta foi sem inclusão de zincoe os níveis de inclusão de sulfato de zinco foram de 60 e 100mg/kg e de zinco metionina de 20, 40, 60, 80 e 100 mg/kg. No experimento dois, uma dieta foi sem inclusão de manganês e os níveis de inclusão de sulfato de manganês foram de 65 e 105 mg/kg e de manganês metionina de 25, 45, 65, 85 e 105 mg/kg. Em ambos experimentos, para determinar a disponibilidade, comparou-se uma dieta sem adição do micromineral com outras dietas com adição do micromineral, na fonte orgânica e inorgânica. Para determinar a exigência, somente os níveis dos microminerais na fonte orgânica foram comparados entre si. Os microminerais estudados (zinco e manganês) não interferiram no desempenho das aves independente do nível e fonte em que foram utilizados. Aos 38 dias, o zinco (60 e 100 mg/kg) e o manganês (105 mg/kg) orgânico foram excretados em menor quantidade em comparação com os mesmos minerais na fonte inorgânica. Sugerindo assim, uma melhor absorção do micromineral orgânico. Independente da fonte e nível utilizado, os microminerais estudados não interferiram nas características ósseas avaliadas (peso, comprimento e largura da tíbia, peso do tarso- metatarso e peso das falanges). Em ambos estudos, o grau de mineralização óssea aumentou conforme elevou-se a concentração de zinco ou de manganês na dieta, independente da fonte em que estes microminerais foram estudados. O método mais adequado para determinação do teor de zinco e de manganês é através da utilização de tíbias. / Two experiments were conducted with the objective of determining the concentration of zinc and manganese in the diet of poultry, the experiments were done on the performance, availability and bone mineralization, besides the comparison of methods to quantify the degree of bone mineralization. In each experiment 320 male chicks were distributed in a totally randomized and experimental design, with eight treatments and five replicates of eight birds each. The existing differential between experiment one and experiment two is related to the evaluated micro mineral (trace elements), beingzinc and manganese respectively. In experiment one, one diet did not include zinc and the other diets included levels of zinc sulfate of 60 and 100 mg/kg, and of zinc methionineof 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 mg/kg. In experiment two, one diet did not include manganese and the other diets included levels of manganese sulfate of 65 and 105 mg/kg, and of manganese methionine of 25, 45, 64, 85 and 105 mg/kg. In both experiments, to determine the availability, a diet without the addition of micro mineral was compared to other diets with the addition of the micro mineral in the organic and inorganic sources. To determine the requirement, only the levels of micro mineral in the organic source were compared among themselves. The studied micro mineral did not interfere on the poultry performance regardless thelevel and source in which they were used. At 38 days, the quantities of zinc (60 and 100 mg/kg) and manganese (105 mg/kg) excreted from an organic source were lower in comparison to the same minerals in an inorganic source. Thus suggesting a better absorption of the organic micro mineral. Regardless the used source and level, the studied micro minerals (zinc and manganese) did not interfere in the evaluated bone characteristics (weight, length and width of the tibia, the weight of the tarsus - metatarsus and the weight of the phalanges). In both studies the degree of bone mineralization increased in accordance with the increased concentration of zinc and manganese in the diet, regardless the source in which those micro mineralswere studied. The most appropriate method for determining the zinc and the manganese content is through the use of tibia.
177

Análise multigênica de rotavírus do grupo A em aves de criações comerciais brasileiras / Multigenic analysis of avian rotavirus in Brazil

Beserra, Laila Andreia Rodrigues 04 May 2017 (has links)
Os rotavírus, membros da família Reoviridae, são uma importante causa de diarreia em mamíferos e aves. São partículas icosaédricas não envelopadas e seu genoma é formado por 11 segmentos de RNA fita dupla que codificam seis proteínas estruturais e seis proteínas não estruturais. O objetivo deste estudo foi caracterizar os genes codificadores das proteínas não estruturais (NSP1-5) e estruturais (VP1-4, VP6-7) dos rotavírus do grupo A em aves de criações comerciais (corte, postura, matrizeiros e avozeiros) localizadas em 12 estados brasileiros, seguido de análises de recombinação e pressão de seleção das amostras definidas. Um total de 226 amostras fecais foram triadas através de reações de RT-PCR tendo como alvo a amplificação da VP6 e NSP5. A frequência de ocorrência, baseada em cada uma destas provas, variou de 9,7% a 18,14%, respectivamente. Em seguida, 10 das amostras positivas foram processadas com primers específicos visando a amplificação dos demais genes, seguido do sequenciamento nucleotídico e filogenia baseada no método de maximum likelihood, tendo como modelos de substituição GTR (NSP1-3, VP1-3, VP4, VP6, VP7) e HKY (NSP4, NSP5) e 1.000 repetições de bootstrap. Foram definidas sequências parciais para os genes codificadores da VP1-4, VP6-7 e NSP1-4 e sequências completas para NSP5. As respectivas árvores demonstraram que as dez amostras definidas se agruparam em clados aviários previamente descritos. Duas constelações genotípicas foram caracterizadas: G19-P[31]-I11-R6-C6-M7-A16-N6-T8-E10-H8 e G19-P[31]-I4-R4-C4-M4-A16-N4-T4-E4-H4. Estes genotipos são tipicamente encontrados em aves, mas quando analisados em conjunto, esta é a primeira descrição destas constelações. Eventos de recombinação foram observados nos genes NSP2, VP1, VP3 e VP7. Pelo menos um códon com pressão de seleção positiva foi encontrado nos genes codificadores das proteínas NSP1, VP2 e VP3. Este estudo propicia um melhor entendimento acerca da epidemiologia e diversidade viral circulante nas criações aviárias brasileiras, servindo de base para o estabelecimento de medidas profiláticas mais eficazes. / Rotaviruses are members of the Reoviridae family and they are a common cause of acute diarrhea in several mammalian and avian species. They are non-enveloped icosahedral particles and its genome comprises 11 segments of double-stranded RNA, which encodes six structural proteins (VP1-4, VP6-7) and six nonstructural proteins (NSP1-6). The objective of this study was to characterize the RVA nonstructural and structural proteins coding genes (NSP1-NSP5, VP1-VP4, VP6 and VP7) from fecal samples from avian farms (broiler breeders, poultry, laying hens, and grandparents) raised in Brazilian commercial farms from 12 states, followed by recombination and selection pressure analysis from samples defined here. A total of 226 fecal samples were screened using a RT-PCR technique targeting the amplification of the VP6 and NSP5. The frequency of occurrence, using these techniques, ranging from 9.7% to 18,14%, respectively; and from these, ten samples were further processed with specific primers to amplify the remaining genes, followed by respective nucleotide sequencing of the amplicons and phylogeny based on method maximum likelihood, as substitutions models GTR (NSP1-3, VP1-3, VP4, VP6, VP7) and HKY (NSP4, NSP5) and 1.000 bootstrap repetitions. Partial nucleotide sequences of VP1-4, VP6-7, and NSP1-4, and complete from NSP5, were obtained in this study. The phylogenetic trees depicted that the ten Brazilian rotavirus strains segregated with previous avian RVA described elsewhere. Two avian genotype constellations have been characterized here: G19-P[31]-I11-R6-C6-M7-A16-N6-T8-E10-H8, and G19-P[31]-I4-R4-C4-M4-A16-N4-T4-E4-H4. These genotypes are typically found in avian species, although when analyzed together, this is the first report of such constellations. Recombination events were observed in NSP2, VP1, VP3, and VP7 coding genes. At least on positive selected site was observed in NSP1, VP2, and VP3 genes. This study provides a better understanding of rotavirus epidemiology, by the definition of genetic variability of circulating strains.
178

Development and assessment of avian and ovine antivenoms for European viper venoms

Harrison, Kenneth Louis January 2004 (has links)
This research was undertaken in order to design techniques and processes that enable the manufacture of effective antivenoms. To prepare a broad specificity anti venom for European vipers from chicken yolk it was first necessary to develop a simple effective method to extract avian immunoglobulin (lgY). A specific fluoroimmunoassay was developed to monitor IgY recovery and serum IgY levels in immunised hens. The most promising extraction methods from the literature were compared using a triglyceride kit to monitor lipoprotein removed and SDS-PAGE and ELISA to monitor purity and activity respectively. Caprylic acid followed by ammonium sulphate proved the best method. Unfortunately only low levels of specific IgY were achieved and it was necessary to include an affinity purification step to demonstrate their effectiveness in an EDso test. Pepsin, papain and trypsin all produced Fab' fragments from IgY but only pepsin digested the resultant Fc fragments. Pepsin could also digest other proteins in egg yolk, thereby avoiding the need to salt fractionate IgY prior to its digestion with a consequent improvement in the recovery of Fab'. A small scale affinity purification (SSAP) assay was developed, characterised and used to determine specific antibody levels in ovine antisera. Small doses (l5IAg) of venom produced significant specific levels but larger doses produced a better response and were used to produce anti venom. Binding studies with SSAP demonstrated a high concentration of specific antibodies in V.latastei antisera that bind to components in the venoms of other European vipers. A specific ovine F(ab')2-based V.latastei antivenom approximately twice as potent as the anti venom used currently in Spain was prepared from the ovine antisera. Evidence is presented that SSAP should supersede manual ELISA for assessing specific antibody levels in antisera. No major gain in recovery and purity resulted from processing whole blood rather than serum for preparing antivenom.
179

Análise multigênica de rotavírus do grupo A em aves de criações comerciais brasileiras / Multigenic analysis of avian rotavirus in Brazil

Laila Andreia Rodrigues Beserra 04 May 2017 (has links)
Os rotavírus, membros da família Reoviridae, são uma importante causa de diarreia em mamíferos e aves. São partículas icosaédricas não envelopadas e seu genoma é formado por 11 segmentos de RNA fita dupla que codificam seis proteínas estruturais e seis proteínas não estruturais. O objetivo deste estudo foi caracterizar os genes codificadores das proteínas não estruturais (NSP1-5) e estruturais (VP1-4, VP6-7) dos rotavírus do grupo A em aves de criações comerciais (corte, postura, matrizeiros e avozeiros) localizadas em 12 estados brasileiros, seguido de análises de recombinação e pressão de seleção das amostras definidas. Um total de 226 amostras fecais foram triadas através de reações de RT-PCR tendo como alvo a amplificação da VP6 e NSP5. A frequência de ocorrência, baseada em cada uma destas provas, variou de 9,7% a 18,14%, respectivamente. Em seguida, 10 das amostras positivas foram processadas com primers específicos visando a amplificação dos demais genes, seguido do sequenciamento nucleotídico e filogenia baseada no método de maximum likelihood, tendo como modelos de substituição GTR (NSP1-3, VP1-3, VP4, VP6, VP7) e HKY (NSP4, NSP5) e 1.000 repetições de bootstrap. Foram definidas sequências parciais para os genes codificadores da VP1-4, VP6-7 e NSP1-4 e sequências completas para NSP5. As respectivas árvores demonstraram que as dez amostras definidas se agruparam em clados aviários previamente descritos. Duas constelações genotípicas foram caracterizadas: G19-P[31]-I11-R6-C6-M7-A16-N6-T8-E10-H8 e G19-P[31]-I4-R4-C4-M4-A16-N4-T4-E4-H4. Estes genotipos são tipicamente encontrados em aves, mas quando analisados em conjunto, esta é a primeira descrição destas constelações. Eventos de recombinação foram observados nos genes NSP2, VP1, VP3 e VP7. Pelo menos um códon com pressão de seleção positiva foi encontrado nos genes codificadores das proteínas NSP1, VP2 e VP3. Este estudo propicia um melhor entendimento acerca da epidemiologia e diversidade viral circulante nas criações aviárias brasileiras, servindo de base para o estabelecimento de medidas profiláticas mais eficazes. / Rotaviruses are members of the Reoviridae family and they are a common cause of acute diarrhea in several mammalian and avian species. They are non-enveloped icosahedral particles and its genome comprises 11 segments of double-stranded RNA, which encodes six structural proteins (VP1-4, VP6-7) and six nonstructural proteins (NSP1-6). The objective of this study was to characterize the RVA nonstructural and structural proteins coding genes (NSP1-NSP5, VP1-VP4, VP6 and VP7) from fecal samples from avian farms (broiler breeders, poultry, laying hens, and grandparents) raised in Brazilian commercial farms from 12 states, followed by recombination and selection pressure analysis from samples defined here. A total of 226 fecal samples were screened using a RT-PCR technique targeting the amplification of the VP6 and NSP5. The frequency of occurrence, using these techniques, ranging from 9.7% to 18,14%, respectively; and from these, ten samples were further processed with specific primers to amplify the remaining genes, followed by respective nucleotide sequencing of the amplicons and phylogeny based on method maximum likelihood, as substitutions models GTR (NSP1-3, VP1-3, VP4, VP6, VP7) and HKY (NSP4, NSP5) and 1.000 bootstrap repetitions. Partial nucleotide sequences of VP1-4, VP6-7, and NSP1-4, and complete from NSP5, were obtained in this study. The phylogenetic trees depicted that the ten Brazilian rotavirus strains segregated with previous avian RVA described elsewhere. Two avian genotype constellations have been characterized here: G19-P[31]-I11-R6-C6-M7-A16-N6-T8-E10-H8, and G19-P[31]-I4-R4-C4-M4-A16-N4-T4-E4-H4. These genotypes are typically found in avian species, although when analyzed together, this is the first report of such constellations. Recombination events were observed in NSP2, VP1, VP3, and VP7 coding genes. At least on positive selected site was observed in NSP1, VP2, and VP3 genes. This study provides a better understanding of rotavirus epidemiology, by the definition of genetic variability of circulating strains.
180

Landscape genetics of avian influenza (H5N1 and H9N2) in Egyptian poultry from 2006-2015: co-infection, key substitutions, and viral diffusion

Young, Sean Gregory 01 May 2017 (has links)
With a case fatality rate higher than the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza represents a threat to global public health. Efforts to identify locations with the greatest potential for pandemic emergence, as well as how the virus is spreading, may help minimize this threat. First detected in Egypt in 2006, H5N1 viruses have resulted in the deaths of millions of birds in both commercial and backyard poultry flocks, and more than 350 human infections, the most of any country, have been confirmed. Human outbreaks have been so far constrained by poor viral adaptation to non-avian hosts. There are two evolutionary mechanisms by which the H5N1 avian influenza virus could acquire pandemic potential: 1) via reassortment as a result of coinfection with another subtype (such as low pathogenic avian influenza H9N2); and/or 2) via antigenic drift and the accumulation of randomly occurring genetic changes found to improve viral fitness, herein called key substitutions (KS). Both mechanisms were investigated using geospatial methods including ecological niche modeling and hot spot analyses to predict locations with elevated potential for pandemic emergence. Using ecological niche modeling environmental, behavioral, and population characteristics of H5N1 and H9N2 niches within Egypt were identified, with niches differing markedly by subtype. Niche estimates were combined using raster overlay to estimate co-infection potential, with known occurrences used for validation. Co-infection was successfully predicted with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) 0.991). 41 distinct KS in H5N1 were detected in Egyptian isolates, including 17 not previously reported in Egypt. Phenotypic consequences of detected KS were varied, but the majority have been implicated in improving mammalian host adaptation and increasing virulence. Statistically significant spatial clustering of high KS rates was detected in the northwestern portion of the Nile River delta in the governorates of Alexandria and Beheira. To investigate how the virus spreads between poultry farms, landscape genetics techniques were employed. Viral genetic sequences were evaluated using phylogenetics to determine viral relatedness between samples, then distance models representing competing diffusion mechanisms were created using road networks and a least-cost path model designed to approximate wild waterbird travel using niche modeling and circuit theory. Spatial correlations were evaluated using Mantel tests, Mantel correlograms, and multiple regression of distance matrices within causal modeling and relative support frameworks. Samples from backyard farms were most strongly correlated with least cost path distances, implicating wild bird diffusion, while samples from commercial farms were most strongly correlated with road network distances, implicating human-mediated diffusion. Results were largely consistent across gene segments. Identifying areas at risk of co-infection can help target spaces for increased surveillance. Similarly, detecting spatial hot spots of KS highlight areas of concern for pandemic emergence from antigenic drift. Demonstration of different diffusion mechanisms by farm type should inform both surveillance and biosecurity practices. Knowledge of where to focus intervention efforts, both spatially and strategically, allows limited public health resources to be targeted most effectively. By detecting where in the country pandemic influenza is likely to emerge and identifying how the virus is spreading between farms, this work contributes to efforts to predict and prevent the next influenza pandemic.

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