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Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Transport Project Economic EvaluationLieswyn, John January 2012 (has links)
Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs.
This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified.
A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS.
Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers.
It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.
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Jackknife Empirical Likelihood Inferences for the Skewness and KurtosisZhang, Yan 10 May 2014 (has links)
Skewness and kurtosis are measures used to describe shape characteristics of distributions. In this thesis, we examine the interval estimates about the skewness and kurtosis by using jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL), adjusted JEL, extended JEL, traditional bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and BCa bootstrap methods. The limiting distribution of the JEL ratio is the standard chi-squared distribution. The simulation study of this thesis makes a comparison of different methods in terms of the coverage probabilities and interval lengths under the standard normal distribution and exponential distribution. The proposed adjusted JEL and extended JEL perform better than the other methods. Finally we illustrate the proposed JEL methods and different bootstrap methods with three real data sets.
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Ion beam processing of surfaces and interfaces – Modeling and atomistic simulationsLiedke, B. January 2011 (has links)
Self-organization of regular surface pattern under ion beam erosion was described in detail by Navez in 1962. Several years later in 1986 Bradley and Harper (BH) published the first self-consistent theory on this phenomenon based on the competition of surface roughening described by Sigmund’s sputter theory and surface smoothing by Mullins-Herring diffusion. Many papers that followed BH theory introduced other processes responsible for the surface patterning e.g. viscous flow, redeposition, phase separation, preferential sputtering, etc. The present understanding is still not sufficient to specify the dominant driving forces responsible for self-organization. 3D atomistic simulations can improve the understanding by reproducing the pattern formation with the detailed microscopic description of the driving forces. 2D simulations published so far can contribute to this understanding only partially.
A novel program package for 3D atomistic simulations called trider (TRansport of Ions in matter with DEfect Relaxation), which unifies full collision cascade simulation with atomistic relaxation processes, has been developed. The collision cascades are provided by simulations based on the Binary Collision Approximation, and the relaxation processes are simulated with the 3D lattice kinetic Monte-Carlo method. This allows, without any phenomenological model, a full 3D atomistic description on experimental spatiotemporal scales. Recently discussed new mechanisms of surface patterning like ballistic mass drift or the dependence of the local morphology on sputtering yield are inherently included in our atomistic approach.
The atomistic 3D simulations do not depend so much on experimental assumptions like reported 2D simulations or continuum theories. The 3D computer experiments can even be considered as ’cleanest’ possible experiments for checking continuum theories. This work aims mainly at the methodology of a novel atomistic approach, showing that: (i) In general, sputtering is not the dominant driving force responsible for the ripple formation. Processes like bulk and surface defect kinetics dominate the surface morphology evolution. Only at grazing incidence the sputtering has been found to be a direct cause of the ripple formation. Bradley and Harper theory fails in explaining the ripple dynamics because it is based on the second-order-effect ‘sputtering’. However, taking into account the new mechanisms, a ‘Bradley-Harper equation’ with redefined parameters can be derived, which describes pattern formation satisfactorily. (ii) Kinetics of (bulk) defects has been revealed as the dominating driving force of pattern formation. Constantly created defects within the collision cascade, are responsible for local surface topography fluctuation and cause surface mass currents. The mass currents smooth the surface at normal and close to normal ion incidence angles, while ripples appear first at θ ≥ 40°.
The evolution of bimetallic interfaces under ion irradiation is another application of trider described in this thesis. The collisional mixing is in competition with diffusion and phase separation. The irradiation with He+ ions is studied for two extreme cases of bimetals: (i) Irradiation of interfaces formed by immiscible elements, here Al and Pb. Ballistic interface mixing is accompanied by phase separation. Al and Pb nanoclusters show a self-ordering (banding) parallel to the interface. (ii) Irradiation of interfaces by intermetallics forming species, here Pt and Co. Well-ordered layers of phases of intermetallics appear in the sequence Pt/Pt3Co/PtCo/PtCo3/Co. The trider program package has been proven to be an appropriate technique providing a complete picture of mixing mechanisms.
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Aprovechamiento y mejora de crudos extrapesadosCorresa Mateu, Elena 20 October 2023 (has links)
[ES] Durante la presente tesis doctoral se ha desarrollado un proceso de mejora parcial in-situ en superficie de un crudo extrapesado que ha permitido obtener un buen rendimiento a un crudo sintético que cumple con las especificaciones necesarias para ser transportado a través de un oleoducto, esto es, un crudo sintético con una gravedad API superior a 19, una viscosidad inferior a los 300 cSt y libre de asfaltenos. Además, se ha conseguido eliminar prácticamente el 99% en peso de los metales, níquel y vanadio, presentes en el crudo de partida, lo que facilita el posterior procesado de este crudo sintético en una refinería.
Las reacciones necesarias para desarrollar este proceso se han llevado a cabo utilizado una unidad Micro-Downer (MDU). Dicha unidad consta de un reactor de lecho transportado descendente y permite obtener resultados a nivel de laboratorio similares a los que se obtendrían al procesar cualquier crudo en un reactor tipo FCC a escala industrial. Se han estudiado las condiciones de reacción (temperatura, tiempo de residencia y relación sólido a carga) más adecuadas para llevar a cabo el craqueo térmico de un crudo extrapesado en este tipo de reactores. Asimismo, se ha encontrado que entre varios materiales sólidos con diferentes propiedades ácidas y texturales, es con el caolín, una arcilla natural con un cierto grado de porosidad residual en su estructura cristalina, con el que se obtiene el mayor rendimiento a productos líquidos que cumplen los requisitos de densidad y viscosidad necesarios para poder ser transportados a través de un oleoducto. Estos resultados se han obtenido tras llevar a cabo la reacción en condiciones no severas (530ºC, 0,3 s de tiempo de residencia y una relación sólido a carga de 8 g g¿1), y que por tanto no requieren de un elevado gasto energético. En contrapartida, se ha detectado que con cada uno de los sólidos utilizados y en cualquiera de las condiciones de operación estudiadas, todos los crudos sintéticos recogidos son inestables con respecto a la floculación de los asfaltenos.
Con el fin de subsanar esta limitación de la tesis doctoral, en el apartado siguiente se ha intentado eliminar la fracción de asfaltenos de los líquidos finales. Para ello se ha utilizado, ya sea como sustituto del caolín o como aditivo junto a él, un material sólido con actividad para el craqueo de fondo (BCA, del inglés Bottom Cracking Additive). De este modo se pretende eliminar esta fracción de asfaltenos mediante craqueo catalítico, dando lugar a la formación de otras fracciones más ligeras de crudo, y/o mediante reacciones de condensación dan- do lugar a la formación de coque. En este apartado ha quedado demostrado que la presencia de un cierto grado de acidez, aunque residual, en el sólido de intercambio de calor empleado para procesar un crudo extrapesado como el utilizado para realizar este estudio, conlleva un incremento en el rendimiento a coque cuya principal consecuencia es una importante bajada en el rendimiento a crudo sintético final sin que, en contrapartida, se consiga eliminar el problema de la presencia de asfaltenos en los líquidos finales.
Tras comprobar que para obtener crudos sintéticos estables con respecto a la fioculación de los asfaltenos es necesario eliminar la fracción residuo, es decir, los hidrocarburos con puntos de ebullición superior a los 537ºC, el siguiente paso se ha centrado en encontrar una combinación de etapas con las que sea posible convertir, o reciclar hasta la extinción, esta fracción residuo. Con este fin se han ideado tres estrategias de procesos de mejora y se han llevado a cabo estimaciones teóricas que nos han permitido conocer la mejor estrategia de procesado para obtener el mayor rendimiento a crudo sintético estable.
Finalmente, la validez de este nuevo procesos se ha estimado comparando estos resultados experimentales obtenidos a escala de laboratorio con los generados al procesar este mismo crudo extrapesado en una planta piloto de delayed coking. / [CA] Durant la present tesi doctoral s'ha desenvolupat un procés de millora parcial in-*situ en superfície d'un cru extrapesado que ha permès obtenir un bon rendiment a un cru sintètic que compleix amb les especificacions necessàries per a ser transportat a través d'un oleoducte, això és, un cru sintètic amb una gravetat API superior a 19, una viscositat inferior als 300 cSt i lliure de asfaltenos. A més, s'ha aconseguit eliminar pràcticament el 99% en pes dels metalls, níquel i vanadi, presents en el cru de partida, la qual cosa facilita el posterior processament d'aquest cru sintètic en una refineria. Les reaccions necessàries per a desenvolupar aquest procés s'han dut a terme utilitzat una unitat Micro-Downer (MDU). Aquesta unitat consta d'un reactor de llit transportat descendent i permet obtenir resultats a nivell de laboratori similars als que s'obtindrien en processar qualsevol cru en un reactor tipus FCC a escala industrial. S'han estudiat les condicions de reacció (temperatura, temps de residència i relació sòlid a càrrega) més adequades per a dur a terme el craqueig tèrmic d'un cru extrapesado en aquest tipus de reactors. Així mateix, s'ha trobat que entre diversos materials sòlids amb diferents propietats àcides i texturales, és amb el caolí, una argila natural amb un cert grau de porositat residual en la seua estructura cristal·lina, amb el qual s'obté el major rendiment a productes líquids que compleixen els requisits de densitat i viscositat necessaris per a poder ser transportats a través d'un oleoducte. Aquests resultats s'han obtingut després de dur a terme la reacció en condicions no severes (530 °C, 0,3 s de temps de residència i una relació sòlid a càrrega de 8 g g1), i que per tant no requereixen d'una elevada despesa energètica. En contrapartida, s'ha detectat que amb cadascun dels sòlids utilitzats i en qualsevol de les condicions d'operació estudiades, tots els crus sintètics arreplegats són inestables respecte a la floculació dels asfaltenos. Amb la finalitat d'esmenar aquesta limitació de la tesi doctoral, en l'apartat següent s'ha intentat eliminar la fracció de asfaltenos dels líquids finals. Per a això s'ha utilitzat, ja siga com a substitut del caolí o com a additiu al costat d'ell, un material sòlid amb activitat per al craqueig de fons (BCA, de l'anglès Bottom Cracking Additive). D'aquesta manera es pretén eliminar aquesta fracció de asfaltenos mitjançant craqueig catalític, donant lloc a la formació d'altres fraccions més lleugeres de cru, i/o mitjançant reaccions de condensació donen- do lloc a la formació de coc. En aquest apartat ha quedat demostrat que la presència d'un cert grau d'acidesa, encara que residual, en el sòlid d'intercanvi de calor emprada per a processar un cru extrapesado com l'utilitzat per a realitzar aquest estudi, comporta un increment en el rendiment a coc la principal conseqüència del qual és una important baixada en el rendiment a cru sintètic final sense que, en contrapartida, s'aconseguisca eliminar el problema de la presència de asfaltenos en els líquids finals. Després de comprovar que per a obtenir crus sintètics estables respecte a la fioculación dels asfaltenos és necessari eliminar la fracció residu, és a dir, els hidrocarburs amb punts d'ebullició superior als 537 °C, el següent pas s'ha centrat en trobar una combinació d'etapes amb les quals siga possible convertir, o reciclar fins a l'extinció, aquesta fracció residu. A aquest efecte s'han ideat tres estratègies de processos de millora i s'han dut a terme estimacions teòriques que ens han permès conèixer la millor estratègia de processament per a obtenir el major rendiment a cru sintètic estable. Finalment, la validesa d'aquest nou processos s'ha estimat comparant aquests resultats experimentals obtinguts a escala de laboratori amb els generats en processar aquest mateix cru extrapesado en una planta pilot de delayed coking. / [EN] During this doctoral thesis it has been developed an in-situ extra-heavy crude oil partial upgrading process that has allowed to obtain a good yield to a synthetic crude oil that meets the requirements of density and viscosity to be transported through a pipeline, that is, a synthetic crude with an API gravity grater than 19, a viscosity of less than 300 cSt and free of asphaltenes. Furthermore, practically all the metals, nickel and vanadium, have been removed from the starting extra-heavy crude oil, which greatly facilitates the further processing of this syncrude in a refinery.
In order to develop this process a study has been conducted to determine the ideal reaction conditions (temperature, residence time and solid to oil ratio) to carry out the thermal cracking reaction of an extra-heavy crude oil in a downflow transported bed reactor. Moreover, it has been found that among several solid materials with different acidities and textural properties, it is the Kaolín, a natural clay with a small degree of porosity in its crystalline structure, which yields the largest amount of synthetic crude with the density and viscosity values required to be transported through an oil pipeline. These results have been obtained after performing the reaction under non-severe conditions (530ºC, 0.3 seconds and 8g g¿1) and therefore do not require a high energy expenditure. However, the liquids collected after each of the reactions carried out are unstable with respect to asphaltene flocculation, regardless of the solid heat exchanger or the reaction conditions used.
To overcome this shortcoming, the next step has focused on eliminating asphaltenes from the synthetic crude. To do so, it has been employed, either alone or as an additive together with kaolin, a heat exchange solid with a certain grade of activity to performe the catalytic cracking of heavy molecules (BCA, Bottom Cracking Additive). This would allow asphaltenes removal by means of catalytic cracking reactions, giving rise to lighter hydrocarbons formation, and/or by means of condensation reactions, giving rise to coke formation. In this section it has been concluded that, due to the characteristics of the composition of the extraheavy crude oil used in the present study, the presence of any kind of acidity on the solid used as heat exchanger lead to a such increase in coke yield, with the concomitant reduction in the yield to syncrude, that made its used inadvisable. In addition, asphaltene flocculation continues to be observed within the reduced amount of liquids collected.
So that, after assuming that in order to obtain stable liquids respect asphaltenes flocculation it is mandatory to get a syncrude free of residue fraction, hydrocarbon products with boiling points higher than 537ºC, in the next section has been analyzed the combination of different process steps to either thermally convert or recycle to extinction this heavy hydrocarbons fraction. Three different strategies of improvement processes have been schematized and the best one to produce the greatest amount of stable synthetic crude has been determined through theoretical calculations.
Finally, this new partial upgrading process has been assessed by comparing these results obtained experimentally in the laboratory with the ones obtained after processing the same extraheavy crude oil in a Delayed Coking pilot plant. / Corresa Mateu, E. (2023). Aprovechamiento y mejora de crudos extrapesados [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/198857
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Ion beam processing of surfaces and interfacesLiedke, Bartosz 28 December 2011 (has links) (PDF)
Self-organization of regular surface pattern under ion beam erosion was described in detail by Navez in 1962. Several years later in 1986 Bradley and Harper (BH) published the first self-consistent theory on this phenomenon based on the competition of surface roughening described by Sigmund's sputter theory and surface smoothing by Mullins-Herring diffusion. Many papers that followed BH theory introduced other processes responsible for the surface patterning e.g. viscous flow, redeposition, phase separation, preferential sputtering, etc. The present understanding is still not sufficient to specify the dominant driving forces responsible for self-organization. 3D atomistic simulations can improve the understanding by reproducing the pattern formation with the detailed microscopic description of the driving forces. 2D simulations published so far can contribute to this understanding only partially.
A novel program package for 3D atomistic simulations called TRIDER (TRansport of Ions in matter with DEfect Relaxation), which unifies full collision cascade simulation with atomistic relaxation processes, has been developed. The collision cascades are provided by simulations based on the Binary Collision Approximation, and the relaxation processes are simulated with the 3D lattice kinetic Monte-Carlo method. This allows, without any phenomenological model, a full 3D atomistic description on experimental spatiotemporal scales. Recently discussed new mechanisms of surface patterning like ballistic mass drift or the dependence of the local morphology on sputtering yield are inherently included in our atomistic approach.
The atomistic 3D simulations do not depend so much on experimental assumptions like reported 2D simulations or continuum theories. The 3D computer experiments can even be considered as 'cleanest' possible experiments for checking continuum theories. This work aims mainly at the methodology of a novel atomistic approach, showing that: (i) In general, sputtering is not the dominant driving force responsible for the ripple formation. Processes like bulk and surface defect kinetics dominate the surface morphology evolution. Only at grazing incidence the sputtering has been found to be a direct cause of the ripple formation. Bradley and Harper theory fails in explaining the ripple dynamics because it is based on the second-order-effect 'sputtering'. However, taking into account the new mechanisms, a 'Bradley-Harper equation' with redefined parameters can be derived, which describes pattern formation satisfactorily. (ii) Kinetics of (bulk) defects has been revealed as the dominating driving force of pattern formation. Constantly created defects within the collision cascade, are responsible for local surface topography fluctuation and cause surface mass currents. The mass currents smooth the surface at normal and close to normal ion incidence angles, while ripples appear first at incidence angles larger than 40°.
The evolution of bimetallic interfaces under ion irradiation is another application of TRIDER described in this thesis. The collisional mixing is in competition with diffusion and phase separation. The irradiation with He ions is studied for two extreme cases of bimetals: (i) Irradiation of interfaces formed by immiscible elements, here Al and Pb. Ballistic interface mixing is accompanied by phase separation. Al and Pb nanoclusters show a self-ordering (banding) parallel to the interface. (ii) Irradiation of interfaces by intermetallics forming species, here Pt and Co. Well-ordered layers of phases of intermetallics appear in the sequence Pt/Pt3Co/PtCo/PtCo3/Co. The TRIDER program package has been proven to be an appropriate technique providing a complete picture of mixing mechanisms.
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Ion beam processing of surfaces and interfaces: Modeling and atomistic simulationsLiedke, Bartosz 23 September 2011 (has links)
Self-organization of regular surface pattern under ion beam erosion was described in detail by Navez in 1962. Several years later in 1986 Bradley and Harper (BH) published the first self-consistent theory on this phenomenon based on the competition of surface roughening described by Sigmund's sputter theory and surface smoothing by Mullins-Herring diffusion. Many papers that followed BH theory introduced other processes responsible for the surface patterning e.g. viscous flow, redeposition, phase separation, preferential sputtering, etc. The present understanding is still not sufficient to specify the dominant driving forces responsible for self-organization. 3D atomistic simulations can improve the understanding by reproducing the pattern formation with the detailed microscopic description of the driving forces. 2D simulations published so far can contribute to this understanding only partially.
A novel program package for 3D atomistic simulations called TRIDER (TRansport of Ions in matter with DEfect Relaxation), which unifies full collision cascade simulation with atomistic relaxation processes, has been developed. The collision cascades are provided by simulations based on the Binary Collision Approximation, and the relaxation processes are simulated with the 3D lattice kinetic Monte-Carlo method. This allows, without any phenomenological model, a full 3D atomistic description on experimental spatiotemporal scales. Recently discussed new mechanisms of surface patterning like ballistic mass drift or the dependence of the local morphology on sputtering yield are inherently included in our atomistic approach.
The atomistic 3D simulations do not depend so much on experimental assumptions like reported 2D simulations or continuum theories. The 3D computer experiments can even be considered as 'cleanest' possible experiments for checking continuum theories. This work aims mainly at the methodology of a novel atomistic approach, showing that: (i) In general, sputtering is not the dominant driving force responsible for the ripple formation. Processes like bulk and surface defect kinetics dominate the surface morphology evolution. Only at grazing incidence the sputtering has been found to be a direct cause of the ripple formation. Bradley and Harper theory fails in explaining the ripple dynamics because it is based on the second-order-effect 'sputtering'. However, taking into account the new mechanisms, a 'Bradley-Harper equation' with redefined parameters can be derived, which describes pattern formation satisfactorily. (ii) Kinetics of (bulk) defects has been revealed as the dominating driving force of pattern formation. Constantly created defects within the collision cascade, are responsible for local surface topography fluctuation and cause surface mass currents. The mass currents smooth the surface at normal and close to normal ion incidence angles, while ripples appear first at incidence angles larger than 40°.
The evolution of bimetallic interfaces under ion irradiation is another application of TRIDER described in this thesis. The collisional mixing is in competition with diffusion and phase separation. The irradiation with He ions is studied for two extreme cases of bimetals: (i) Irradiation of interfaces formed by immiscible elements, here Al and Pb. Ballistic interface mixing is accompanied by phase separation. Al and Pb nanoclusters show a self-ordering (banding) parallel to the interface. (ii) Irradiation of interfaces by intermetallics forming species, here Pt and Co. Well-ordered layers of phases of intermetallics appear in the sequence Pt/Pt3Co/PtCo/PtCo3/Co. The TRIDER program package has been proven to be an appropriate technique providing a complete picture of mixing mechanisms.
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Bioanalytical Applications of Intramolecular H-Complexes of Near Infrared Bis(Heptamethine Cyanine) DyesKim, Junseok 15 July 2008 (has links)
This dissertation describes the advantages and feasibility of newly synthesized near-infrared (NIR) bis-heptamethine cyanine (BHmC) dyes for non-covalent labeling schemes. The NIR BHmCs were synthesized for biomolecule assay. The advantages of NIR BHmCs for biomolecule labeling and the instrumental advantages of the near-infrared region are also demonstrated. Chapter 1 introduces the theory and applications of dye chemistry. For bioanalysis, this chapter presents covalent and non-covalent labeling. The covalent labeling depends on the functionality of amino acids and the non-covalent labeling relies on the binding site of a protein. Due to the complicated binding process in non-covalent labeling, this chapter also discusses the binding equilibria in spectroscopic and chromatographic analyses. Chapter 2 and 3 evaluate the novel BHmCs for non-covalent labeling with human serum albumin (HSA) and report the influence of micro-environment on BHmCs. The interesting character of BHmCs in aqueous solutions is that the dyes exhibit non- or low-fluorescence compared to their monomer counterpart, RK780. It is due to their H-type closed clam-shell form in the solutions. The addition of HSA or organic solvents opens up the clam-shell form and enhances fluorescence. The binding equilibria are also examed. Chapter 4 provides a brief introduction that summaries the use of capillary electrophoresis (CE), and offers a detailed instrumentation that discusses the importance and advantage of a detector in NIR region for CE separation. Chapter 5 focuses on the use of NIR cyanine dyes with capillary electrcophoresis with near-infrared laser induce fluorescence (CE-NIR-LIF) detection. The NIR dyes with different functional groups show that RK780 is a suitable NIR dye for HSA labeling. The use of BHmCs with CE-NIR-LIF reduces signal noises that are commonly caused by the interaction between NIR cyanine dyes and negatively charged capillary wall. In addition, bovine carbonic anhydrase II (BCA II) is applied to study the influence of hydrophobicity on non-covalent labeling. Finally, chapter 6 presents the conformational dependency of BHmCs on the mobility in capillary and evaluates the further possibility of BHmCs for small molecule detection. Acridine orange (AO) is used as a sample and it breaks up the aggregate and enhances fluorescence. The inserted AO into BHmC changes the mobility in capillary, owing to the conformational changes by AO.
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Metoda bootstrap a její aplikace / Bootstrap Method and its ApplicationPavlíčková, Lucie January 2009 (has links)
The diploma thesis describes the bootstrap method and its applications in the estimate accuracy statement, in the confidence intervals generation and in the testing of statistical hypotheses. Further the method of the discrete probability estimation of the categorical quantity is presented, making use the gradient of the quasi-norm hereof distribution. On concrete examples the bootstrap method is applied in the confidence intervals forming of the categorical quantity probability function. The diploma thesis was supported by the project of MŠMT of the Czech Republic no. 1M06047 "Centre for Quality and Reliability of Production", by the grant of Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (Czech Science Foundation) reg. no. 103/08/1658 "Advanced optimum design of composed concrete structures" and by the research plan of MŠMT of the Czech Republic no. MSM0021630519 "Progressive reliable and durable structures".
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The Sunset Supply Base long term COTS supportability, implementing affordable methods and processesMurphy, Michael W., Barkenhagen, Michael E. 03 1900 (has links)
Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / This thesis represents a cross Systems Command (NAVSEA/NAVAIR) developed product. The product - the Sunset Supply Base (SSB) system - provides a complete system for addressing the risks and supportability issues involved with Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) products in Navy combat and support systems. The SSB system was implemented on three Navy combat weapon systems at various phases of the product development life cycle. The main body provides to the Program Management Offices (PMO) and other decision makers, a high level summary of performance expectations. Appendix A - The Sunset Supply Base Architecture - identifies at a high level of abstraction a collaborative architecture providing a roadmap for design and development of the SSB system. Appendix B - The Systems Engineering Development and Implementation (SEDI) plan - is a prescriptive or "How to" manual describing activities that have been used to successfully implement the SSB system. Appendix C - Business Case Analysis (BCA) - presents the data collected as a result of SEDI plan implementation then addresses the business/programmatic attributes showing the viability and value proposition possible through the SSB system. Appendix D - The Marketing Plan for the SSB system - defines methods and practices necessary to establish the SSB system as the alternative of choice. / Chemical Engineer, United States Navy / Systems Engineer, United States Navy
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