Yes / The link between finance and politics (especially opinion polling) is interesting in both theoretical and empirical terms. Inter alia the election date corresponds to the effective price of an underlying at a known future date. This renders a derivative pricing approach appropriate and, ultimately, to a simplification of the approach suggested by Taleb (2018). Thus, we use an options-pricing approach to predict vote share. Rather than systematic bias in polls forecasting errors appear chiefly due to the mode of extracting election outcomes from the share of the vote. In the 2016 US election polling results put the Republicans ahead in the electoral college from July 2016 onwards. In the 2017 UK general election, though set to be the largest party, a Conservative majority was far from certain.

Bakgrund: Aktierekommendationer är vanligt förekommande i finansiell media samtidigt som teorier säger att man inte systematiskt kan över- eller undervärdera en aktie. Trots detta visar studier att finansmarknaden influeras av aktierekommendationer då handeln ökar efter en annonsering, vilket innebär att de finansiella kunskaperna en student har lärt sig under sin utbildning inte påverkar lika starkt när den sedan väljer att följa en aktierekommendation. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka vilka faktorer som påverkar ekonomistudenters uppfattning av aktierekommendationer och hur stor påverkan valet av utbildningslinje har för hur studenten bedömer aktierekommendationer. Referensram: Referensramen kommer ge en förförståelse samt behandla de teorier som är väsentliga för att utreda studien. Referensramen innefattar prisbildning, EMH, behavioural finance, risk, kulturella influenser, utbildningens influenser och skolornas bakgrund. Metod: För att bäst kunna besvara och undersöka syftet genomförs studien som en förklarande surveyundersökning med en kvantitativ ansats. Undersökningen utförs genom en elektronisk enkät som skickas ut till studenter. Empiri: Det empiriska materialet består av enkätsvar från studenter från fyra olika ekonomiska utbildningslinjer som bearbetats med stistiska metoder. Slutsats: Valet av utbildningslinje påverkar studentens uppfattning om aktierekommendationer. De faktorer som påverkar är tron på den effektiva marknadshypotesen, studentens finansiella intresse, kön, riskbenägenhet, teoretisk kunskap samt kultur. Dessa faktorer påverkar utbildningslinjerna olika starkt. / Background: Share price recommendations are a common feature in the financial media. At the same time the financial theories argue that an asset can't systematically be over- or under valued. In spite of this, former studies show that share price recommendations do influence the financial market since the trade increases after an announcement. This means that the financial knowledge the student obtain during its education won’t matter when he or she chooses to follow a share price recommendation. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate which factors influence students’ opinions about share price recommendations, and how big effect the students’ business education has on that opinion. Theory: The frame of reference will give the reader a deeper knowledge beyond the theory and also theoretical perspectives essential for analysing the study. The frame of reference will consist of asset pricing, the effective market hypothesis, behavioural finance, cultural influences, educational influences as well as the schools backgrounds. Methodology: For best being able to answer to the purpose of this study, an explanatory survey investigation with a quantitative method is being made. The study will be investigated through an electronic questionnaire that will be sent to students. Empirical findings: The empirical material consits of the answers of students from four different business educations. Conclusions: The business educations affect the students’ opinion about share price recommendations in differing ways. The influencing factors are whether the student believes in effective market hypothesis, the students’ personal interest in finance, gender, risk appetite, theoretical knowledge, and culture.

Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka huruvida matematiska modeller i detta fall nyckeltal används kring analys inför ett investeringsbeslut. Samt undersöka om och vilka psykologiska faktorer påverkar investeringsbeslut hos svenska aktiesparare. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod med en tvärsnittsdesign. För datainsamling har forskarna använt sig av enkätundersökning och analyserat samband med hjälp av Pearsons korrelations modell. Slutsats: Utifrån studiens resultat har det konstaterats att det mest använda nyckeltalet hos svenska aktiesparare är P/E tal (54%) till följd av EPS (29%). Studien visar också att en större del av svenska aktiesparare inte använder nyckeltal överhuvudtaget, och inte heller anser de vara särskilt användbara. Dessutom är svenska aktiesparare är mer riskaverta än riskbenägna. 80% av svenska aktiesparare föredrar en säker riskfri avkastning till skillnad från ett investeringsalternativ med högre risk och högre avkastning. Svenska aktiesparare pratar också med andra gällande sina investeringar vilket kan påverka investeringsbeslutet. Dessutom visar studien på att en stark majoritet litar på sin magkänsla och skulle tacka nej till ett investeringsbeslut ifall de inte “kändes rätt”. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore whether mathematical models in this case financial ratios are used within an investment decision. Moreover, investigate which, if any psychological factors affect an investment decision for non-corporate Swedish investors. Method: The current study is based on a survey consisting of 238 participants shared via online platforms. Correlations within the study are based on Pearson’s correlations model. Findings: The study finds that the most used financial ratio non corporate Swedish investors (NCSS) is P/E ratio (54%) followed by EPS (29%). The study also shows that a large proportion of said investors do not use financial ratios whatsoever, nor do they deem them particularly useful. Moreover, are NCSS more risk averse than risk prone. 80% of NCSS in the study preferred a risk-free investment opportunity in contrast to an investment opportunity with higher risk and higher reward. NCSS usually converse with others regarding investments which can affect their investment decisions. Lastly the study shows that a strong majority trust their intuition and gut feeling and would decline an investment decision based on the investment “not feeling right”.

Syfte: Undersökningens syfte är att få en förståelse i vilken omfattning privata investerare beaktar utomstående faktorer vid sina investeringsbeslut på aktiemarknaden. Studien har för avsikt att undersöka om verkligheten stämmer överens med teorin, därmed om människor är rationella vid sina beslut, och vilka faktorer som styr individens beslut vid aktiehandel.  Metod: Denna undersökning är en kvantitativ tvärsnittsstudie med ett deskriptivt förhållningssätt. Undersökningen grundar sig i en genomgripande studie av litteratur följt av en enkätundersökning. Slutsats: Resultatet från undersökningen visar att psykologiska faktorer samt information har en påtaglig effekt på privatpersoners investeringsbeslut. Vidare indikerar undersökningen att många privata investerare som använder sig främst av nyckeltal vid aktieanalys samt vid investering. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding of the extent to which private investors take external factors into account when making their investment decisions in the stock market. The study intends to investigate whether reality is consistent with the theory, thus whether people are rational in their decisions, and what factors govern the individual's decisions in stock trading. Method: This study is a quantitative cross-sectional study with a descriptive approach. The survey is based on a comprehensive study of literature followed by a survey.  Conclusions: The results from the survey shows that psychological factors and information have a significant effect on private investment decisions. Furthermore, the survey indicates that many private investors use key figures in stock analysis and their investments.

Purpose: To examine the relationship between a new movie release and the stock value of the movie producers in america, and seek a connection between movie criticts and the stock price with an attempt to find similar patterns with swedish movies and their financial performance. Theoretical Framework: Based on theories of effcient and ineffcient markets, behavioural finance and previous research in the field. Method: The study has a quantitative and a deductive approach. An event study method is used to examine five large movie studios in the USA, and the Swedish film producers are examined through the number of paying customers. Results: The results are shown i charts to explain the abnormal rate of return (AR) and the relationship between movie release and the AR. Furthermore, the movie critique is also represented charts. Both for the american and the swedish movies. Conclusion: The results show that an overall negative rate of return of -0,24 % occurs at the time of a movie release. A connection between stock price and movie release has been encountered. Positive film critique generates positive AR.

Investeringar är grunden i ett företag och därmed är investeringsprocessen ett intressant fenomen att titta närmare på. Efter att ha studerat litteratur och tidigare forskning, som tar upp problematiken i investeringsprocessen, framkom att beslutsfattarens roll är en väsentlig del vid investeringsprocessen. Studien behandlar både beslutfattarens bakgrund och val som påverkar investeringsbeslutfattande i restaurangsbranschen, beslutfattarens bakgrund och val behandlas som påverkande respektive förklarande faktorer. Studien syftar på att ta reda på om och i vilken omfattning belutfattarens bakgrund påverkar sina val i investeringsprocessen. Genom att tillämpa en kvantitativ metod i form av en enkätundersökning lyftes beslutsfattarens bakgrund och investeringsprocess fram. Utifrån enkätundersökningen gjordes en statistisk analys för att hitta eventuella samband mellan de påverkande samt förklarande faktorerna. Resultatet av enkätundersökningen och statistiska analysen visade att det fanns starka samband mellan faktorer såsom kön, ålder, investeringsrutin, kalkylanvändning, utbildningstyp och utbildningsnivå. Detta bekräftar tidigare forskning och teorier om beteendeinriktad investeringsbeslutfattande.

Sammanfattning Magisteruppsats för Civilekonomexamen i företagsekonomi, Ekonomihögskolan vid Linnéuniversitetet, Växjö, 2016.   Författare Alexander Palm & Adam Sjögren   Handledare Christopher Von Koch & Katarina Eriksson   Examinator: Sven-Olof Yrjö Collin   Titel: ”Aktierekommendationer i en ny tid – podcasts på den finansiella marknaden”   Bakgrund & problem: Aktierekommendationer ges traditionellt ut av diverse banker och analyshus. En bias har observerats vilket är till nackdel för investerare. Podcasts är ett förhållandevis nytt fenomen som kan erbjuda aktierekommendationer. Eftersom denna form av media är ny, finns lite forskning kring dess roll och potential för att erbjuda finansiella råd.   Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att utvidga forskning kring podcasts och dess roll för marknadsfunktionen och marknadseffektiviteten   Metod: En deduktiv utgångspunkt och ett kvantitativt förhållningssätt mellan teori och forskning tillämpas. En traditionell eventstudie med två olika tidsspann tillämpas för att studera aktierekommendationers påverkan på aktiekurser.   Slutsats: Resultat pekar på att IH inte har stöd vid aktierekommendationer från podcasts vilket är ett tecken på stöd för EMH. Däremot har PPH stöd vilket i sin tur pekar på brister i EMH. Således är det ett tecken på att den svenska aktiemarknaden inte är fullt effektiv och den besitter inte semi-stark form. Inget informationsläckage kunde observeras i samband med rekommendationerna, något som skiljer sig från traditionella källor. Vi kunde visa på en viss temporär och positiv effekt gällande marknadsfunktionen för Small Cap. Genom en observerad ökad handelsvolym påvisar vi övertro på den svenska aktiemarknaden, något som gäller även för traditionella aktierekommendationer. Vi kan inte statistiskt säkerställa att kunskaps sprids mellan podcastlyssnare vilket skiljer sig mot teorier och tidigare forskning. / Abstract Master Thesis in Business Administration. School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, Växjö, 2016.   Authors Alexander Palm & Adam Sjögren   Supervisor: Christopher Von Koch & Katarina Eriksson   Examiner: Sven-Olof Yrjö Collin   Title: “Stock recommendations in a new era – Podcasts in financial markets.”   Background & problem: Banks and other financial institutes deliver traditionally stock recommendations. Bias from these sources has been observed which can be of disadvantage for individual investors. Podcasts is a relatively new kind of media that can supply the market with stock recommendations. Since podcasts is a new media, there is little research regarding its role on financial markets and its potential to offer financial advice.   Purpose: The purpose is to extend previous research regarding podcasts and it’s role on market efficiency and market function.   Method: We apply a deductive benchmark and a quantitative approach. A traditional event study with two different time-spans is conducted to analyse stock recommendation and the effect on stock prices.   Conclusion: Results indicate lack of support for IH with stock recommendations from podcasts, which in turn is support for EMH. However, PPH does have support, which indicate deficiency in EMH. Thus, we provide evidence that the Swedish stock market is not fully efficient and doesn’t posses semi-strong form. No information leakage could be observed, something that differs from previous research on stock recommendations. We could provide evidence of a temporary and positive effect regarding the market function for Small Cap. The observed increase in trading volume proves overconfidence on the Swedish stock market, something that has previously been shown. No knowledge dispersion exists between listeners of podcasts, something that differs from theory and previous research.

Overconfidence and its relationship to investor market participation is well established in the finance literature. The research into investors and social networks is only in its infancy, however. This thesis extends the literature by expanding on both subjects individually, then bringing them together. Empirical work on individual investors in the existing literature links overconfidence and excess trading, resulting in impaired returns. The preferred activity metric, monthly account turnover, encapsulates two separate elements, though. One is trade frequency. The other is leverage use. Chapter 4 of this thesis theorizes based on the existing literature that in fact trade frequency is not a good measure of overconfidence. It then demonstrates through empirical analysis of a group of individual non-professional foreign exchange traders that leverage is much more suitable to that role. Chapter 5 turns the focus to social networks, particularly with respect to information transfer. The literature in finance anticipates that network members benefit from their membership. Further, network position (social capital) enhances that benefit. This thesis challenges that expectation with respect to non-professional investors. Findings based on analysis of members of an online retail foreign exchange trader social network indicate that while there may be an educational benefit accruing to unsophisticated members, for more sophisticated ones membership appears to have a negative effect on returns. One potential explanation for the negative impact of network membership is explored in Chapter 6 in the form of impression management. It is hypothesized that sophisticated investors are influenced in their behaviour by the realization they are being observed, and also the size of their audience. Analysis of foreign exchange traders indicates an increase in leverage use among sophisticated investors as their audience size increases, coinciding with a decline in trade excess returns, making the case for an observation-based rise in overconfidence.

Sunk cost accounting refers to the empirical finding that individuals tend to let their decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time in such a way that they are more risk seeking than they would be had they not incurred these costs. Such behaviour violates the axioms of economic theory which states individuals should only consider incremental costs and benefits when executing investments. This dissertation is concerned whether the pervasive sunk cost phenomenon extends to corporate acquisitions and financial markets. 122 students from the University of St Andrews participated in three experiments exploring the use of sunk costs in interactive negotiation contexts and financial markets. Experiment I elucidates that subjects value the sunk cost issue higher than other issues in a multi-issue negotiation. Experiment II illustrates that bidders are influenced by the sunk costs of competing bidders in a first price, sealed-bid, common-value auction. In financial markets their exists an analogous concept to sunk cost accounting known as the disposition effect. This explains the tendency of investors to sell “winning” stocks and hold “losing” stocks. Experiment III demonstrates that trading strategies in an experimental equity market are influenced by a pre-trading brokerage cost. Not only are subjects influenced in the direction that reduces the disposition effect but also trading is diminished. Without the brokerage cost there was a significant disposition effect.

Real estate remains to be a major component of wealth for households as the market value of houses continues to rise noticeably again, as before the global recession 2007. Understanding households’ responses to changes of house prices and interest rates is important as fluctuations of these kind affect their preferences of saving. This thesis examines the impact of house price- and interest rate changes on household savings with the usage of secondary panel data from seven European countries. Providing a definite estimation of the interest elasticity of saving for households is not conceivable with any confidence considering the difficulties in estimating differential behavior. In accordance to previous studies the result of house prices is significant negative regarding household savings. However, the repo rate contradicts earlier results with a significant negative correlation toward household savings indicating an increased confidence due to a behavioral shift. In conclusion, this study shows that internal effects are of great importance as several factors suffer from high internal impact.