The aim of this thesis is to develop efficient and practically useful Bayesian methods for statistical inference in structural second-price auctions. The models are applied to a carefully collected coin auction dataset with bids and auction-specific characteristics from one thousand Internet auctions on eBay. Bidders are assumed to be risk-neutral and symmetric, and compete for a single object using the same game-theoretic strategy. A key contribution in the thesis is the derivation of very accurate approximations of the otherwise intractable equilibrium bid functions under different model assumptions. These easily computed and numerically stable approximations are shown to be crucial for statistical inference, where the inverse bid functions typically needs to be evaluated several million times. In the first paper, the approximate bid is a linear function of a bidder's signal and a Gaussian common value model is estimated. We find that the publicly available book value and the condition of the auctioned object are important determinants of bidders' valuations, while eBay's detailed seller information is essentially ignored by the bidders. In the second paper, the Gaussian model in the first paper is contrasted to a Gamma model that allows intrinsically non-negative common values. The Gaussian model performs slightly better than the Gamma model on the eBay data, which we attribute to an almost normal or at least symmetrical distribution of valuations. The third paper compares the model in the first paper to a directly comparable model for private values. We find many interesting empirical regularities between the models, but no strong and consistent evidence in favor of one model over the other. In the last paper, we consider auctions with both private-value and common-value bidders. The equilibrium bid function is given as the solution to an ordinary differential equation, from which we derive an approximate inverse bid as an explicit function of a given bid. The paper proposes an elaborate model where the probability of being a common value bidder is a function of covariates at the auction level. The model is estimated by a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm and the results point strongly to an active influx of both private-value and common-value bidders. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Epub ahead of print. Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

La tesi ha per oggetto lo studio del fenomeno dei patti parasociali occulti nell’ambito di s.p.a. aperte al mercato del capitale di rischio e quotate. La prima parte del lavoro si concentra sulle norme dell’ordinamento italiano che prevedono obblighi di trasparenza degli accordi tra azionisti, senza trascurare gli altri principali sistemi europei e quello statunitense. Il secondo capitolo sviluppa l’analisi dei diversi profili in relazione ai quali il fenomeno del patto parasociale occulto reagisce ed influisce sull’interpretazione e sull’applicazione della disciplina dell’opa obbligatoria da concerto. Inoltre, si fornisce un’illustrazione delle modalità attraverso le quali dovrebbe essere possibile pervenire alla prova dell’esistenza di siffatti accordi. Nell’ultimo capitolo si prende in esame la responsabilità degli azionisti per la violazione del dovere di disclosure e, soprattutto, per la mancata promozione dell’opa obbligatoria da patto occulto. Si argomenta nel senso che tale condotta possa integrare altresì un’ipotesi di insider trading (o, eventualmente, di manipolazione del mercato) e si procede ad una ricostruzione del danno risarcibile e del relativo nesso causale, traendo spunto, in particolare, dai risultati emersi nell’esperienza statunitense. / The thesis concerns the shareholders’ agreements - within a corporation - that are kept secret, breaching a legally imposed duty of disclosure. The first part of the analysis focuses on the rules that contain such a duty of disclosure, mainly as regards the Italian regulation but also through a consideration of other legal systems. The second chapter develops the study by showing how the not-disclosed shareholders’ agreements could vary the way in which the regulation of the mandatory bid should be interpreted and applied. Moreover, an illustration about the possible ways to get the evidence of the existence of these agreements is provided. In the final chapter, the liability of the shareholders - mainly based on the breach of the duty to promote a mandatory bid - is taken into consideration, especially through a comparison with the American legal system as for the damages caused by an insider trading conduct and the causal connection: it is argued, in fact, that the violation of the rules regarding both the disclosure of the agreements and the mandatory bid should be also identified as a case of insider trading (or market manipulation).

The traditional air cargo supply chain is composed by the shippers, the freight forwarders and the airlines. The freight forwarders secure capacity with airlines in order to accommodate shippers' demand. They bid for capacity six to twelve months before the actual departure date of the aircraft, and confirm the needed capacity a few days before departure. We address the freight forwarders' problem of confirming needed capacity based on balancing the costs of ordering too much capacity versus ordering too little. We use a Markov decision process to model the problem. We show the value function is convex in the state variables for lead times of one and two periods. We present the structure of the optimal policy and show it is stationary. In addition we present solutions to the case with subcontracting options and order due dates. We also address the airlines' revenue management problem with respect to its cargo capacity available for free sale (after honoring committed capacity to freight forwarders), in particular the problems of (1) accepting/rejecting incoming bookings based on bid prices, and of (2) estimating the show-up rate (ratio of bookings handed in at departure over bookings on hand) with impact on overbooking. To address the lumpiness of demand, we split the cargo into two categories: small cargo, composed of mail and small packages, and large cargo, composed of the bulk of commercial cargo. The small cargo is approximated with the passenger arrival, and we propose a new algorithm to solve the traditional probabilistic nonlinear problem from the passenger side. The large cargo is solved using a dynamic program, which is decomposed at the leg level using a fare-prorating scheme. The solution from our new approach is shown via simulation to be superior to two approaches currently used: the first come first serve, and the deterministic linear program. The show-up rate is estimated using wavelets and we show that a discrete show-up rate is more suitable than the traditional Normal estimator used in practice. The new estimator results in considerable more potential revenue.

With the deregulation of power industry and the market competition, reliable power supply and secured system operation are major concerns of the independent system operator (ISO) or decision-maker (DM). Power dispatch under deregulated environment is complicated with various possibilities of decisions involved. Without the assistance of Energy Management System (EMS), it is not easy for ISO or DM to operate with pure experiences. To enhance the operational efficiency, EMS involves the state-of-the-art control technology, and the fast and effective computer assisted decision support system will help dispatch the power. A conventional EMS has a few major tasks, among them, the ¡§network analysis¡¨ task and the ¡§forecast and scheduling¡¨ task are the most important in assisting the on-line power dispatch. In dealing with the new deregulated environment, an ¡§operational planning¡¨ has to be added to aid the EMS for more security. There are significant changes on EMS after deregulation. This dissertation will focus on the changes and new functions, in the ¡§network analysis¡¨ and the ¡§forecast and scheduling¡¨ tasks of an EMS, which supports the operation in the competitive environment. In the ¡§network analysis¡¨ task, we discuss the real and reactive power dispatch and congestion management with AC optimal power flow (OPF). In this task, the formulation of AC OPF with deregulation issues and the effect of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) devices are presented. A predictor-corrector interior-point nonlinear-programming (PCIPNLP) algorithm has been developed to solve the problem. The model involves only slight modification to the present OPF for social welfare maximization to obtain the optimized bid-based dispatch and nodal spot prices. The incorporation of FACTS devices for system operations can ease the difficulties caused by transmission congestion. It is found that PCIPNLP technique is very effective for the modified OPF solution for congestion relief under deregulation. In the ¡§forecast and scheduling¡¨ task, we discuss the resource scheduling for bid-based dynamic economic dispatch and spot dispatch for power and reserve. They can be formulated for social welfare maximizing problem that is solved by using an efficient interior point method. And the optimal resource allocation and nodal spot price can be given from the various test results. We have also proposed a fuzzy based strategic gaming method to determine the GenCo¡¦s bidding strategy. Based on fuzzy set theory, a multi-criteria decision-making method is used to obtain the optimal strategy combination, bids and expected payoffs. Decision maker can find the optimal strategy combination by using weight vector to represent his subjective attitude about the structure of multi-objectives. The advantages have also been demonstrated through the numerical examples. Compared with the classical (¡§nonfuzzy¡¨) game theory, the proposed approach could help the decision maker to obtain higher expected payoffs, and make his choices easily. Possible applications of the proposed fuzzy method can be suggested for other decision-making problems in the power systems

Strategic behaviors in electricity markets are analyzed. Three related topics are investigated. The first topic is a research about the NE search algorithm for complex non-cooperative games in electricity markets with transmission constraints. Hybrid co-evolutionary programming is suggested and simulated for complex examples. The second topic is an analysis about the competing pricing mechanisms of uniform and pay-as-bid pricing in an electricity market. We prove that for a two-player static game the Nash Equilibrium under pay-as-bid pricing will yield less total revenue in expectation than under uniform pricing when demand is inelastic. The third topic is to address a market power mitigation issue of the current Texas electricity market by limiting Transmission Congestion Right (TCR) ownership. The strategic coordination of inter zonal scheduling and balancing market manipulation is analyzed. A market power measurement algorithm useful to determine the proper level of TCR ownership limitation is suggested. / text

Lietuvos akcijų rinkos pasiūlos ir paklausos srautų analizei buvo pasirinktos 9 akcijos. Jas, pagal įvykusių sandorių skaičių ir vertę, galima suskirstyti į tris grupes: nelikvidžios, pusiau likvidžios ir likvidžios akcijos. Šių akcijų, viešai skelbiami rinkos gylio ir įvykusių sandorių, duomenys buvo imami iš Vilniaus vertybinių popierių biržos internetinio puslapio http://www.baltic.omxgroup.com/ nuo 2008 02 25 iki 2008 04 18. Darbe buvo skaičiuojami paprastas (inside bid-ask spread), efektyvus (effective spread) ir užfiksuotas kainų skirtumai. Roll matas skaičiuojamas remiantis akcijų įvykusių sandorių kainomis, kurių skirtumų stacionarumas ištirtas RA-kriterijumi (reverse arrangement test). Kaip ir buvo galima tikėtis, parodyta, kad pasirinktų akcijų rinka yra neefektyvi. Dėl šios priežasties, kiekvienai akcijai apskaičiuotas Roll matas yra labai grubus. Naudojant C++ programavimo kalbą, buvo sukurta programinė įranga: • Duomenų skaitymui iš interneto; • Duomenų bazės kūrimui, apdorojimui ir redagavimui; • Duomenų analizei. / Nine types of stock were chosen to analyse quoted bid-ask spread of Vilnius Stock Exchange. According to the value and number of transactions of the stock, it can be divided into three groups: non-liquid, half-liquid and liquid stock. Public market depth information and data of trade was taken from Vilnius Stock Exchange website http://www.baltic.omxgroup.com/ during the period from 25th February 2008 to 18th April 2008. In my work I have analysed inside bid-ask spread, effective spread and fixed prices. Roll measure was measured using trade prices of stock; stationarity of differences of trade prices were examined using reverse arrangement test. As had been expected, I came to conclusion that the stock market for chosen stocks is informationally inefficient. Due to this reason the Roll measure is not correct. By using C++ programming language the following programming tools were created: • Data reading from internet tool; • Data collection and correction tool; • Data analysis tool.

Conic finance is a brand new quantitative finance theory. The thesis is on the applications of conic finance on South African Financial Markets. Conic finance gives a new perspective on the way people should perceive financial markets. Particularly in incomplete markets, where there are non-unique prices and the residual risk is rampant, conic finance plays a crucial role in providing prices that are acceptable at a stress level. The theory assumes that price depends on the direction of trade and there are two prices, one for buying from the market called the ask price and one for selling to the market called the bid price. The bid-ask spread reects the substantial cost of the unhedgeable risk that is present in the market. The hypothesis being considered in this thesis is whether conic finance can reduce the residual risk? Conic finance models bid-ask prices of cashows by applying the theory of acceptability indices to cashows. The theory of acceptability combines elements of arbitrage pricing theory and expected utility theory. Combining the two theories, set of arbitrage opportunities are extended to the set of all opportunities that a wide range of market participants are prepared to accept. The preferences of the market participants are captured by utility functions. The utility functions lead to the concepts of acceptance sets and the associated coherent risk measures. The acceptance sets (market preferences) are modeled using sets of probability measures. The set accepted by all market participants is the intersection of all the sets, which is convex. The size of this set is characterized by an index of acceptabilty. This index of acceptability allows one to speak of cashows acceptable at a level, known as the stress level. The relevant set of probability measures that can value the cashows properly is found through the use of distortion functions. In the first chapter, we introduce the theory of conic finance and build a foundation that leads to the problem and objectives of the thesis. In chapter two, we build on the foundation built in the previous chapter, and we explain in depth the theory of acceptability indices and coherent risk measures. A brief discussion on coherent risk measures is done here since the theory of acceptability indices builds on coherent risk measures. It is also in this chapter, that some new acceptability indices are introduced. In chapter three, focus is shifted to mathematical tools for financial applications. The chapter can be seen as a prerequisite as it bridges the gap from mathematical tools in complete markets to incomplete markets, which is the market that conic finance theory is trying to exploit. As the chapter ends, models used for continuous time modeling and simulations of stochastic processes are presented. In chapter four, the attention is focussed on the numerical methods that are relevant to the thesis. Details on obtaining parameters using the maximum likelihood method and calibrating the parameters to market prices are presented. Next, option pricing by Fourier transform methods is detailed. Finally a discussion on the bid-ask formulas relevant to the thesis is done. Most of the numerical implementations were carried out in Matlab. Chapter five gives an introduction to the world of option trading strategies. Some illustrations are used to try and explain the option trading strategies. Explanations of the possible scenarios at the expiration date for the different option strategies are also included. Chapter six is the appex of the thesis, where results from possible real market scenarios are presented and discussed. Only numerical results were reported on in the thesis. Empirical experiments could not be done due to limitations of availabilty of real market data. The findings from the numerical experiments showed that the spreads from conic finance are reduced. This results in reduced residual risk and reduced low cost of entering into the trading strategies. The thesis ends with formal discussions of the findings in the thesis and some possible directions for further research in chapter seven. / Thesis (MSc (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Conic finance is a brand new quantitative finance theory. The thesis is on the applications of conic finance on South African Financial Markets. Conic finance gives a new perspective on the way people should perceive financial markets. Particularly in incomplete markets, where there are non-unique prices and the residual risk is rampant, conic finance plays a crucial role in providing prices that are acceptable at a stress level. The theory assumes that price depends on the direction of trade and there are two prices, one for buying from the market called the ask price and one for selling to the market called the bid price. The bid-ask spread reects the substantial cost of the unhedgeable risk that is present in the market. The hypothesis being considered in this thesis is whether conic finance can reduce the residual risk? Conic finance models bid-ask prices of cashows by applying the theory of acceptability indices to cashows. The theory of acceptability combines elements of arbitrage pricing theory and expected utility theory. Combining the two theories, set of arbitrage opportunities are extended to the set of all opportunities that a wide range of market participants are prepared to accept. The preferences of the market participants are captured by utility functions. The utility functions lead to the concepts of acceptance sets and the associated coherent risk measures. The acceptance sets (market preferences) are modeled using sets of probability measures. The set accepted by all market participants is the intersection of all the sets, which is convex. The size of this set is characterized by an index of acceptabilty. This index of acceptability allows one to speak of cashows acceptable at a level, known as the stress level. The relevant set of probability measures that can value the cashows properly is found through the use of distortion functions. In the first chapter, we introduce the theory of conic finance and build a foundation that leads to the problem and objectives of the thesis. In chapter two, we build on the foundation built in the previous chapter, and we explain in depth the theory of acceptability indices and coherent risk measures. A brief discussion on coherent risk measures is done here since the theory of acceptability indices builds on coherent risk measures. It is also in this chapter, that some new acceptability indices are introduced. In chapter three, focus is shifted to mathematical tools for financial applications. The chapter can be seen as a prerequisite as it bridges the gap from mathematical tools in complete markets to incomplete markets, which is the market that conic finance theory is trying to exploit. As the chapter ends, models used for continuous time modeling and simulations of stochastic processes are presented. In chapter four, the attention is focussed on the numerical methods that are relevant to the thesis. Details on obtaining parameters using the maximum likelihood method and calibrating the parameters to market prices are presented. Next, option pricing by Fourier transform methods is detailed. Finally a discussion on the bid-ask formulas relevant to the thesis is done. Most of the numerical implementations were carried out in Matlab. Chapter five gives an introduction to the world of option trading strategies. Some illustrations are used to try and explain the option trading strategies. Explanations of the possible scenarios at the expiration date for the different option strategies are also included. Chapter six is the appex of the thesis, where results from possible real market scenarios are presented and discussed. Only numerical results were reported on in the thesis. Empirical experiments could not be done due to limitations of availabilty of real market data. The findings from the numerical experiments showed that the spreads from conic finance are reduced. This results in reduced residual risk and reduced low cost of entering into the trading strategies. The thesis ends with formal discussions of the findings in the thesis and some possible directions for further research in chapter seven. / Thesis (MSc (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

This doctoral thesis consists of three articles: one literature overview and two empirical articles. The first article provides a literature overview about industrial diversification, corporate acquisitions and the intersection of both research areas. This thesis secondly analyzes whether conglomerates invest externally differently from focused firms. This investigation provides new insights on the question how industrial diversification influences corporate investment. It allows to draw conclusions whether internal investment is independent from external investment in diversified firms, or whether weak internal investment in conglomerates is (at least partially) offset by more efficient external investment, or even whether value-destructive internal investment is accompanied by external investment eliciting the same effects. In this case weakly managed multi-segment firms could be also identified by their behavior and success in corporate acquisitions. Third, the thesis copes with the question how conglomerates are perceived and treated as potential targets of corporate acquisitions. This analysis adds further aspects to the question whether multi-segment firms are discounted due to their organizational form. Assuming that the sum of the single segment of a diversified company is higher valued than the conglomerate as a whole, one could expect that investors should strive to acquire such companies, to dismantle them subsequently in order to create additional value by reshaping these inefficiently composed entities. However, there are also contradicting effects of lower synergies and higher integration costs compared to the acquisition of stand alone firms. New insights in these discussions allow us to draw conclusions whether a diversification discount potentially being harvested by a bust up takeover outweighs lower synergies and higher integration costs.

Univ., Diss.--Frankfurt/Main, 2004. / Literaturangaben.