This thesis is devoted to the study of the applications of the error theory using Dirichlet forms. Our work is split into three parts. The first one deals with the models described by stochastic differential equations. After a short technical chapter, an innovative model for order books is proposed. We assume that the bid-ask spread is not an imperfection, but an intrinsic property of exchange markets instead. The uncertainty is carried by the Brownian motion guiding the asset. We find that spread evolutions can be evaluated using closed formulae and we estimate the impact of the underlying uncertainty on the related contingent claims. Afterwards, we deal with the PBS model, a new model to price European options. The seminal idea is to distinguish the market volatility with respect to the parameter used by traders for hedging. We assume the former constant, while the latter volatility being an erroneous subjective estimation of the former. We prove that this model anticipates a bid-ask spread and a smiled implied volatility curve. Major properties of this model are the existence of closed formulae for prices, the impact of the underlying drift and an efficient calibration strategy. The second part deals with the models described by partial differential equations. Linear and non-linear PDEs are examined separately. In the first case, we show some interesting relations between the error and wavelets theories. When non-linear PDEs are concerned, we study the sensitivity of the solution using error theory. Except when exact solution exists, two possible approaches are detailed: first, we analyze the sensitivity obtained by taking "derivatives" of the discrete governing equations. Then, we study the PDEs solved by the sensitivity of the theoretical solutions. In both cases, we show that sharp and bias solve linear PDE depending on the solution of the former PDE itself and we suggest algorithms to evaluate numerically the sensitivities. Finally, the third part is devoted to stochastic partial differential equations. Our analysis is split into two chapters. First, we study the transmission of an uncertainty, present on starting conditions, on the solution of SPDE. Then, we analyze the impact of a perturbation of the functional terms of SPDE and the coefficient of the related Green function. In both cases, we show that the sharp and bias verify linear SPDE depending on the solution of the former SPDE itself

This DPhil thesis analyses the Takeover Bid Directive in the light of EU Law and examines the extent to which this Directive facilitates the exercise of the fundamental freedom of establishment and the free movement of capital in the internal market. Since the Directive is based on the EC Treaty chapter on freedom of establishment (Articles 43 and 44(2)(g) EC Treaty), it should in principle contribute to cross frontier corporate mobility in the internal market through takeover bids; this was the aim of the Commission in its various proposals. Takeover bids and the EC Treaty provisions on freedom of establishment are closely related. The Directive forms part of the EU company law harmonization programme whose weaknesses and limits are also explored. However, the Takeover Bid Directive is an EU company law instrument with strong links to EU capital market law. The initial aims of the EU legislature were to establish an internal market for companies and to achieve market integration in the field of EU company law. However, the Takeover Bid Directive is a compromise and watered down version of a proposal which the Commission envisaged would lead to a more effective pan-European takeover regime than that which actually proved possible. The need for compromise was the result of the very different legal and policy approaches of the Member States in the field of takeover regulation. Some provisions of the Directive are obligatory for all Member States. These provisions include the mandatory bid rule, the squeeze-out right, and the sell-out right. All these obligatory provisions of the Directive are in their present form open to criticism. The two key provisions of the Directive have been made optional for Member States. These are the non-frustration rule, requiring the board to obtain the prior authorization of the general meeting of shareholders before taking any action which could result in the frustration of the bid; and the breakthrough rule, requiring that any restrictions on the transfer of securities or voting rights provided for in the articles of association of the offeree company or in contractual agreements between the offeree company and the holders of its securities or in contractual agreements between holders of the offeree company’s securities shall not apply vis-à-vis the offeror during the time allowed for acceptance of the bid. Nevertheless, Member States, which opt out, are obliged to allow individual companies to opt in. Moreover, a reciprocity rule was also adopted, which allows Member States to permit those companies, which apply these provisions, to opt out again if they are the target of a bidder, which does not itself apply the same takeover provisions. Additionally, the non-frustration and the breakthrough rule are not fully comprehensive and even when a company applies them, it might still be able to evade their application since some corporate and financial structures remain outside the Directive’s scope. Finally, this thesis discusses the extent to which obstacles to cross border takeovers addressed by the Directive, or indeed left intact by the Directive, are to be regarded as restrictions on the right of establishment stricto sensu, or simply as obstacles in practice to making a successful takeover bid. More specifically, it scrutinizes the horizontal direct effect of the EC fundamental freedoms and seeks to analyze the extent to which conduct of the board and articles in the corporate constitution might be said to constitute restrictions on the freedom of establishment and on the free movement of capital.

Ce travail de recherche est dédié à l’analyse des politiques de dividendes dans le contexte des fusions-acquisitions américaines. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse décrit le cadre de l’étude. Il présente le cadre théorique des politiques de dividendes, puis celui des fusions-acquisitions avant d’exposer les champs exploratoires relatifs aux spécificités des politiques de dividendes lors des opérations de fusions-acquisitions. Il traite, à la fin, une illustration d’une fusion américaine qui incarne un cas réel des interactions des politiques de dividendes lors des rapprochements des firmes. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse explore empiriquement l’impact de la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur la politique de dividendes post-fusion, et teste un éventuel effet de compensation de la prime de fusion. Le troisième chapitre part de l’idée que la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce des acquisitions en titres de firmes cotées est l’issu de l’évaluation incorrecte de l’acquéreur. De ce fait, il explore un possible rôle informationnel de la politique de dividendes de l’acquéreur dans ce type d’opérations qui peut réduire l’asymétrie d’information sur la valorisation de l’acquéreur, et ainsi alléger la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce. Le quatrième chapitre étudie les caractéristiques financières des firmes fusionnées qui sont déterminantes de leurs politiques de dividendes. Au vu de cela, il suppose que la réussite de la fusion peut être affectée par la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées issue de la différence entre leurs caractéristiques. Les résultats de nos recherches prouvent l’effet de la divergence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur le déroulement de la fusion au moment et après la transaction. La principale contribution de cette thèse est donc d’illustrer l’importance de tenir compte des politiques de dividendes des firmes impliquées dans des opérations de fusions-acquisitions, afin de pouvoir prendre les bonnes décisions lors du rapprochement. La généralisation de l’effet de clientèle sur les firmes fusionnées permet de détecter des chocs de clientèles de dividendes, et de révéler la nécessité d’absorber ces chocs par certains termes transactionnels et par la conduite post-fusion de la firme combinée. / This research is dedicated to the analysis of dividend policy in the context of U.S. mergers and acquisitions. The first chapter of this thesis presents the framework of the study. It outlines the theoretical framework of the dividend policies and the mergers-acquisitions before stating exploratory fields related to the specificities and contributions of dividend policies in the M&A setting. Furthermore, it discusses an illustration of an US merger that embodies a real case of interactions between dividend policies during mergers-acquisitions. The second chapter empirically explores the impact of the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies on the post-merger dividend policy, and tests a probable compensation effect of the bid premium. The third chapter starts from the idea that the negative market reaction to the announcement of stock acquisitions of listed firms is derived from the acquirer’s misevaluation. Thereby, it explores the information content of the acquirer dividend policy in such deals which may reduce the information asymmetry on the acquirer valuation, and thus alleviate the negative market reaction at the announcement. The fourth chapter examines the financial characteristics of merging firms that are determining their existing dividend policies. In light of this, it assumes that the merger completion may be affected by the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies which are resulting from the difference between their characteristics. The findings of our research confirm the impact of the difference between the merging firms’ dividend policies on the conduct of the merger during and following the transaction. The main contribution of this thesis is to illustrate the importance of considering the dividend policies of companies involved in mergers-acquisitions in order to make the right decisions in favor of the reconciliation. The generalization of the clientele effect on the M&A setting allow to detect dividend clientele shocks, and reveal the need to absorb these shocks by transaction specifics and the post-merger conduct of the merged firm.

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När en företagsobligation och en statsobligation har samma löptid och har en skillnad i avkastning, så kallas denna skillnad för kreditspread. Ett känt koncept inom finansvärlden är att risk har en stark koppling till avkastning. När emittenten av obligationen inte kan återbetala överenskommen utdelning eller principiellt lånebelopp så klassas detta som en betalningsinställelse. Eftersom det generellt sett är större risk för en betalningsinställelse för ett företag än för en stat, så vill investerare bli kompenserade för den extra risken de tar sig an. Den totala risken som utgör skillnaden i avkastning kan i sin tur delas upp i flera olika riskkomponenter. Syftet med vår uppsats är att undersöka ifall likviditetsrisk, ränterisk och kreditrisk har en effekt på kreditspread för företagsobligationer på den svenska marknaden. Med detta som bakgrund så har vi samlat in historiska data på förfallna obligationer under de senaste 10 åren via databaserna Thomson Reuter Datastream och Eikon. Vi har sedan laddat ned obligationsspecifika egenskaper i form av finansiella nyckeltal för samtliga obligationer. Dessa nyckeltal har valts för att till bästa förmåga representera och mäta respektive risk. Exempelvis så har vi använt oss av nyckeltalet “bid-ask-spread” för att mäta likviditetsrisk hos en obligation. För att undersöka sambandet mellan våra valda risker och kreditspread så genomförde vi ett hypotestest. Vi skapade en nollhypotes och en alternativhypotes som vi sedan testade med hjälp av en multipel regression. Nollhypotes (H0): Studiens utvalda variabler har inte en effekt på den kreditspread hos svenska företagsobligationer Alternativhypotes (Ha): Studiens utvalda variabler har en effekt på den kreditspread hos svenska företagsobligationer Slutsatsen var att vi kunde statistiskt påvisa ett positivt samband mellan riskernas storlek och storleken på obligationens kreditspread. Detta gjordes både för riskerna var för sig och för modellen när den blev testad i sin helhet. Den bakomliggande teorin bakom variablerna kunde därför antas vara korrekt även vid applicering på svenska marknaden för det senaste decenniet. Vi har som ambition att denna studie skall kunna agera som ett verktyg för fundamental analys för framtida investerare samt vidare studier inom området obligationer på svenska marknaden

In dieser Dissertation befassen wir uns mit ökonometrischen Modellen und empirischen Eigenschaften von Intra-Tages (Hochfrequenz-) Aktienmarktdaten. Der Fokus liegt hierbei auf der Analyse des Einflusses, den die Veröffentlichung von Wirtschaftsnachrichten auf die Aktienmarktaktivität hat, der Vorhersage der Geld-Brief-Spanne sowie der Modellierung von Volatilitätsmaßen auf Intra-Tages-Zeitintervallen. Zunächst quantifizieren wir die Marktreaktionen auf Marktneuigkeiten innerhalb eines Handelstages. Zu diesem Zweck benutzen wir linguistisch vorab bearbeitete Unternehmensnachrichtendaten mit Indikatoren über die Relevanz, Neuheit und Richtung dieser Nachrichten. Mit einem VAR Modell für 20-Sekunden Marktdaten der London Stock Exchange weisen wir durch Nachrichten hervorgerufene Marktreaktionen in Aktienkursrenditen, Volatilität, Handelsvolumina und Geld-Brief-Spannen nach. In einer zweiten Analyse führen wir ein long memory autoregressive conditional Poisson (LMACP)-Modell zur Modellierung hoch-persistenter diskreter positivwertiger Zeitreihen ein. Das Modell verwenden wir zur Prognose von Geld-Brief-Spannen, einem zentralen Parameter im Aktienhandel. Wir diskutieren theoretische Eigenschaften des LMACP-Modells und evaluieren rollierende Prognosen von Geld-Brief-Spannen an den NYSE und NASDAQ Börsenplätzen. Wir zeigen, dass Poisson-Zeitreihenmodelle in diesem Kontext signifikant bessere Vorhersagen liefern als ARMA-, ARFIMA-, ACD- und FIACD-Modelle. Zuletzt widmen wir uns der optimalen Messung von Volatilität auf kleinen 20 Sekunden bis 5 Minuten Zeitintervallen. Neben der Verwendung von realized volatility-Ansätzen konstruieren wir Volatilitätsmaße durch Integration von spot volatility-Schätzern, sodass auch Beobachtungen außerhalb der kleinen Zeitintervalle in die Volatilitätsschätzungen eingehen. Ein Vergleich der Ansätze in einer Simulationsstudie zeigt, dass Volatilitätsmaße basierend auf spot volatility-Schätzern den RMSE minimieren. / In this thesis we present econometric models and empirical features of intra-daily (high frequency) stock market data. We focus on the measurement of news impacts on stock market activity, forecasts of bid-ask spreads and the modeling of volatility measures on intraday intervals. First, we quantify market reactions to an intraday stock-specific news flow. Using pre-processed data from an automated news analytics tool we analyze relevance, novelty and direction signals and indicators for company-specific news. Employing a high-frequency VAR model based on 20 second data of a cross-section of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange we find distinct responses in returns, volatility, trading volumes and bid-ask spreads due to news arrivals. In a second analysis we introduce a long memory autoregressive conditional Poisson (LMACP) model to model highly persistent time series of counts. The model is applied to forecast quoted bid-ask spreads, a key parameter in stock trading operations. We discuss theoretical properties of LMACP models and evaluate rolling window forecasts of quoted bid-ask spreads for stocks traded at NYSE and NASDAQ. We show that Poisson time series models significantly outperform forecasts from ARMA, ARFIMA, ACD and FIACD models in this context. Finally, we address the problem of measuring volatility on small 20 second to 5 minute intra-daily intervals in an optimal way. In addition to the standard realized volatility approaches we construct volatility measures by integrating spot volatility estimates that include information on observations outside of the intra-daily intervals of interest. Comparing the alternative volatility measures in a simulation study we find that spot volatility-based measures minimize the RMSE in the case of small intervals.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:24:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Corona Rodrigues Lima.pdf: 1185579 bytes, checksum: b83bf6098ce80f54edfd7e03626c395b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-02 / This work has as goal the analysis of control by the Courts of Accounts in the previous control performed face of bidding documents. Therefore the constitutional and legal competence of the Courts Accounts and particularly the control of the bidding activity of public administration were analyzed, detailing the Court of Auditors s jurisdiction. Finally, we sought to determine the criteria and limits for both as well as the procedure to be observed in exercising such control, seeking in doctrine and jurisprudence parameters for both / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo a análise da atividade dos Tribunais de Contas, no que tange ao controle prévio realizado em face dos editais de licitação. Para tanto, partiu-se da competência constitucional e legal dos Tribunais de Contas e, em especial, do exame do controle da atividade licitatória da Administração Pública, detalhando os pontos de atribuição daquelas Cortes. Por fim, pretendeu-se fixar os critérios e limites dessa análise, bem como o procedimento a ser observado no exercício de tal mister, buscando os parâmetros na doutrina e na jurisprudência

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:21:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Abreu dos Santos Tourinho.pdf: 1153194 bytes, checksum: f5a573ee7c27d41958b5c0071bcddbb1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-14 / This work aims to analyze and explore the controversial aspects related to mandatory bid rule under Brazilian Corporate Law (Law 6,404/76), which extends to voting minority shareholders the right to sell their shares in case of a control transfer. For this purpose we analyze (i) the nature of control , as a power to direct the corporation s business; (ii) the legal definition of controlling shareholder under Brazilian law; (iii) the history of the Brazilian institutional framework; (iv) the different justifications for the rule under Brazilian and foreign doctrines; (v) the elements for the characterization of the transfer of control, taking into consideration the key precedents of Comissão de Valores Mobliários - CVM; and (vi) the mandatory bid rule procedures / O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar e explorar os aspectos controversos envolvendo a regra da oferta pública de aquisição de ações prevista no art. 254-A da Lei 6.404/76, que estende aos minoritários titulares de ações votantes o direito de alienar suas ações em casos de alienação de controle. Para tal analisamos (i) a natureza do controle , entendido como poder de direcionar a atividade empresarial; (ii) a definição legal de acionista controlador de acordo com a legislação brasileira; (iii) o histórico do instituto; (iv) as diferentes justificativas para o instituto, segundo as doutrinas brasileira e estrangeiras; (v) os elementos para a caracterização da alienação de controle, abordando os principais precedentes da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários CVM; e (vi) o procedimento para a realização de uma oferta pública

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o mercado de concessões de prestação do serviço de transmissão de energia elétrica do Brasil. Essa concessão dura trinta anos e, se for considerado que houve muitos interessados em ganhar as concessões, para a maioria dos leilões realizados até 2005 o resultado dos leilões podem ser considerados um grande sucesso. Esses leilões são recentes, se iniciaram em 1999. Antes disso o setor passava por dificuldades de investimento. Após reformulação de algumas leis, o setor elétrico deixou de ser dependente de financiamentos governamentais. O setor privado começou a investir de forma controlada nesses projetos de grande porte e a obrigação do governo passou a ser o de fiscalizar e formular as leis do setor. Como houve muitos interessados em prestar o serviço público, os leilões foram a forma escolhida para decidir qual era a empresa mais eficiente. Os leilões são descendentes de primeiro preço em dois estágios em que o primeiro estágio é secreto em envelope fechado. Caso a diferença entre o menor valor e os outros lances seja menor do que 5%, o leilão passa para o segundo estágio que ocorre em viva-voz. Como o objeto leiloado é uma concessão, o valor que os participantes tem de decidir não é o preço a pagar, mas sim o valor da receita máxima que a concessionária aceitará receber para prestar o serviço. Uma das características da transmissão que determinou o tipo de regulação a ser utilizado foi o fato da transmissão de energia elétrica ser um monopólio natural, por isso o valor cobrado dos usuários deve ser controlado. O valor desse único lance contém as expectativas dos agentes sobre o valor dos custos estimados para prestar o serviço, contém também as expectativas de lucro possível, da probabilidade de vitória do leilão dada a concorrência etc. A análise deste trabalho se concentra nos leilões realizados no período de 1999 até 2005 em que ocorreram dez leilões com várias linhas sendo leiloadas em cada leilão. Para determinar o que tornou esse mercado tão interessante para as empresas privadas, foram consideradas as características de cada empresa. A característica mais importante é a interdependência. Essa interdependência permite custos menores quanto mais projetos de transmissão a empresa possui, por isso os resultados do leilão podem ser determinados por essa característica especial. Além dessa variável, foram consideradas a concorrência, a competitividade entre os participantes, o tipo de empresa, ou seja, em que setor a empresa possui especialidade na realização de projetos e o fato dos leilões serem seqüenciais. / This work analised the concession market of electricity transmission lines in Brazil. This market was recently created by a major restructuring in the regulation laws. The reason for this change was the investment crisis that the sector was going through before 1999. Those concessions are decided by an auction and lasts for thirty years. It has been considered a major success, due to the interest of many companies in acquiring this permits. The government no longer invested on it but instead decided de the laws to control the sector. One of the key changes in the diferent aspect of the regulation the participation of the private sector. Investments were no longer dependent on government for financial suport. This alteration made the market more competitive, eficient and lucrative. The auctions are classified as a descending first-price with two stages. The first stage is made with a sealed bid and in case the diference of the lowest bid and the other bids are less than 5%, the auction goes to the second stage with a oral auction. The object auctioned is a permit to provide a public service for a period o time, so this is the reason the auction is descending one. The bids made by the participants is the value of a maximum annual income permited by the regulator. The reason for this maximum is a result of the fact that this public service is a natural monopoly. It prevents the concessionare to take advantage over it´s clients by charging a high fee when they don´t have a choice of another provider of this service. When the participants of the auctions choose the value of the bid, this only bid contains all of their expectations of costs, profits, the probability of winning the auction when considering the competition etc. This work uses the data of all the auctions of transmission lines that happened between 1999 and 2005. in this period ocorred ten auctions, with many lines auctioned in each one. In order to determine what made this market so interesting for private companies some caracteristics of those companies were considered. The results of this study finds that the most important caracteristic is interdependencies. It allows lower costs the many concessions the company owns. This result is so powerful that sometimes it may determine the winner of the auction. Other variables analised were the competitiveness of this sequential auctions, the competitiveness of the participants, the kind of work the company is specialized in, as a real option when deciding what kind of company to participate, for exemple, in a joint venture, and the benefits of this decision.

本篇論文基於市場上所存在的一些交易機制，探討漲跌停前後之股價行為。因為證券市場上存在一些交易規則，例如漲跌停限制、買賣價差、最小升降單位限制、競價制度等，這些交易規則，具有法定的效力，理所當然地會影響投資人的行為。這種以各種交易機制的存在，探討價格形成的過程，就是市場微結構理論之研究範疇。 本篇引用Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay (1992)所建立之Ordered Probit模型來分析漲跌停前後之股價行為，以個股逐筆交易的價格變動為因變數，而建立因變數為間斷型之分析模型，並以等待撮合時間、交易量、落後期交易價格、買賣價差等經濟變數，來探討個股逐筆交易價格變動的成因。在此同時，鑑於以往研究多假定價量關係為線性，本研究引入非線性的概念，檢定價量之間是否存有非線線性之關係；最後，為使模型更具解釋力，我們引入異質性變異數。 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………..1 第一節 研究動機……………………………………………..1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………………..7 第三節 研究範圍與限制……………………………………..7 第四節 研究架構與內容……………………………………..8 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………….10 第一節 非同時交易………………………………………….10 第二節 最小升降單位……………………………………….11 第三節 買賣價差…………………………………………….14 第四節 漲跌停限制………………………………………….15 第五節 重要模型回顧…………………………………….…18 2.5.1 Chou(1996)……………………………………..18 2.5.2 Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay(1992)…………..20 第三章 實證模型設定………………………………………………….25 第一節 資料來源…………………………………………….25 第二節 樣本選取…………………………………………….25 第三節 模型設定…………………………………………….26 3.3.1 價格的變動區間……………………………….26 3.3.2 解釋變數……………………………………….29 3.3.3 條件變異數的型式…………………………….32 3.3.4 價格與成交量之間非線性關係的檢定……….32 第四節 資料處理…………………………………………….33 第四章 實證分析……………………………………………………….36 第一節 模型基本統計分析………………………………….36 第二節 價量非線性關係的檢定…………………………….39 第三節 Ordered Probit模型實證分析……………………….40 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………………..48 第一節 結論…………………………………………………..48 第二節 建議…………………………………………………..49 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………..50 / This thesis is an application of the market microstructure theory’. In light of some trading mechanisms in our stock market, such as price limit, bid-asked spread, tick size, and auction system, those trading rules would influence the behavior of investors. We want to study the process and outcomes of stock price under those explicit trading rules. We use the Ordered Probit model (Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay, 1992) to investigate the stock behaviors when it hits price limits. We also use price change as the discrete dependent variable, and time elapsed, trading volume, lag price changes, bid-asked spread as explanatory variables. In order to make the model more explainable, heterogeneity is applied. Moreover, we also want to find out if there is any nonlinear relationship between price change and trading volume.