published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

Mergers and acquisitions within the chemical industry is a common practice to increase market presence and customer base. Common justifications for M&A include synergy, business growth and competitive advantages, and management reasoning. Synergies are benefits a combined firm is able to receive through cost reductions, market expansion, and efficiencies in processes. As a result, firms are able to grow and position themselves competitively. To prevent an overpriced acquisition, numerous valuation techniques exist. The discount cash flow examines the value of a firm based on future cash flow. The market multiple compares target firms to similar firms in the industry. Lastly, the asset valuation determines the value of a firm based on the liquidation of the firm. To maximize the return on an acquisition, proper due diligence should be conducted based on the needs and goals of the purchaser, and the value added by the target firm. The premium paid for an acquisition should be based on the valued added through the synergies identified. Current business cycles and future outlook should also factor into the pricing of the acquisition. Having a thorough analysis of a target firm can help the acquirer to clearly understand what is being purchased and hence, determine an appropriate price for the acquisition. / text

Background: Previous studies show that recommendations accuracy partly can be explained by numerous variables. Prior research leave out several variables, which based on theoretical support, may have a connection with accuracy, such as the cash flows’ volatility. Based on the DCF-model’s structure, accuracy of target prices is assumed to have a positive relationship with companies that have stable cash flows. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the accuracy of stock analysts' target prices and their connection with stable cash flows. The purpose of the study is also to analyze the role of less highlighted variables’ relationship with the accuracy of target prices, in combination with earlier investigated variables. Completion: Including less highlighted variables is supported by theory about corporate valuation, where cash flows’ volatility is the main focus of this study. The accuracy of the target prices is analyzed by regression analysis for three time horizons, where the dependent variable is the absolute margin of error and the dependent variables are represented by the explanatory factors that the study examines. The relationships are estimated by OLS, due to the fact that data are unbalanced. Conclusion:  Stock analysts’ target prices present relationships with numerous of the variables examined in the study. The strongest relationships with the accuracy of target prices are shown by cash flows’ variation, the number of stock analysts, goodwill in terms of total capital and companies’ size. The results show that companies with stable cash flow have a positive relationship with the accuracy of target prices, which supports the theories of the DCF-model for valuation of companies with stable cash flow. The estimations show that the accuracy of target prices also is explained by other factors than those this very study investigates. The results show that the accuracy is higher for shorter time horizons. / Bakgrund: Tidigare studier finner att prognosers träffsäkerhet delvis kan förklaras av flertalet variabler. De variabler som studeras i tidigare forskning visar bitvis på tvetydigheter och utelämnar flertalet variabler som utifrån teoretiskt stöd kan ha ett samband med träffsäkerheten, som exempelvis kassaflödens volatilitet. Utifrån DCF-modellens uppbyggnad antas riktkursers träffsäkerhet ha ett positivt samband med bolag som har stabila kassaflöden. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att ekonometrisk analysera träffsäkerheten i aktieanalytikers riktkurser och söka systematiska förklaringsfaktorer till avvikelser mellan riktkurser och de faktisk realiserade kurserna. Fokus ligger på att, i kombination med tidigare undersökta variabler, analysera tidigare mindre uppmärksammade variablers så som kassaflödens samband med riktkursers precision.   Genomförande: Från teori kring bolagsvärdering hämtas stöd för mindre belysta faktorer som kan tänkas påverka riktkursers träffsäkerhet, där kassaflödens volatilitet är studiens huvudsakliga fokus. Riktkursernas träffsäkerhet analyseras via regressionsanalys för tre olika tidshorisonter, där beroendevariabeln är den absoluta felmarginalen i riktkursen och de oberoende variablerna representeras av företagens kassaflöden och övriga påverkansfaktorer som identifierats i tidigare forskning. Studien bygger på data från den amerikanska aktiemarknaden. Slutsats: Aktieanalytikers riktkurser uppvisar samband med flertalet av de variabler studien undersöker. Starkast samband med riktkursers träffsäkerhet visar kassaflödens variation, antalet aktieanalytiker, goodwill i termer av totalt kapital och bolags storlek. Resultaten visar att bolag med stabila kassaflöden har ett positivt samband med riktkursers träffsäkerhet. Detta ger stöd åt DCF-modellens teorier vid värdering av bolag med stabila kassaflöden. Skattningarna visar att riktkursers träffsäkerhet även förklaras av andra faktorer än de som studien undersöker. Resultaten visar att träffsäkerheten är högre för kortare tidshorisonter.

This doctoral thesis focuses on modelling as an efficient tool in industrial practice in the field of power industry and environmental engineering. It represents the modelling for technical as well as for economic part and their combination. Industrial companies do not evaluate only technical solutions in terms of investment costs, however, they search for optimized technical-economic solutions. The doctoral thesis describes the modelling of individual equipment as well as technological units in various levels of complexity. Case studies utilising various levels of modelling are represented herein.

This thesis deals with the specifics of valuation of small businesses and is trying to find practical solutions to particular problems on the example of a travel agency SALLY TOURS. The selected company was evaluated for the purpose of sale and settlement of marital property. Financial and strategy analysis was performed followed by determination of value drivers and future free cash flow. Discounted cash flow and capitalized earnings method were used. The conclusion summarizes the main differences in the valuation of small businesses and companies, and recommends their solutions.

The topic of the thesis is an evaluation of an investment project with application to a real investment project. The aim is to decide whether to realize the project or not with regard to the current and projected macroeconomic situation, tourism and particularly the results of financial indicators. The theoretical part focuses on the specifics of the investment decisions and the parameters entering into the investment evaluation. This part is also focused on different stages of the investment project and the methods used to evaluate the effectiveness of the investment. The theoretical part ends with a risk analysis. The practical part is dedicated to the fullfilment of the defined objectives. After the initial introduction to the investment project comes the analysis of the current and forecasted macroeconomic situation, the analysis of tourism and the project evaluation in terms of defined dynamic methods. The conclusion in the practical part includes a sensitivity analysis of the project on two major risk factors.

[pt] O gerenciamento de riscos de mercado é um assunto que já assume papel relevante e definitivo no ambiente das instituições financeiras. Mais recentemente o assunto vem ganhando espaço também no âmbito de instituições não financeiras. Dentre os benefícios advindos da implantação de sistemas de medição e gerenciamento de riscos de mercado no âmbito das instituições não financeiras, destacam-se como os mais diretos: o controle dos fluxos de caixa necessários ao cumprimento dos investimentos programados pela empresa, a redução da volatilidade desses fluxos e, conseqüentemente, da probabilidade de a empresa deixar de honrar compromissos futuros. Benefícios adicionais incluem o aumento da transparência aos investidores e a rápida assimilação de novas fontes de riscos de mercado pelos gestores. Considerando a existência deste espaço e a importância do tema para as empresas, este trabalho propõe a construção de um modelo teórico para mensuração do fluxo de caixa em risco e o aplica a uma única empresa pertencente ao setor de distribuição de energia elétrica no Brasil. Tal modelo deve ser capaz de informar a probabilidade dessa empresa não dispor de recursos para honrar seus compromissos em determinada data de pagamento futura, ou vértices do fluxo. / [en] In the last years, risk management assumed a relevant and definitive role in the environment of financial institutions. More recently however, the subject has also been gaining ground in the environment of non- financial institutions. Among the benefits arising from the introduction of risk management within the environment of non-financial institutions, those that stand out as being the most direct are the control of the cash flow necessary for the investments that have been programmed, reduction in the volatility of this cash flow, and consequently in the probability of the company failing to honor its future commitments. Additional benefits include an increase in transparency as far as investors are concerned, a rapid assimilation of new risk sources by the managers. Considering this gap and the theme`s importance to non-financial institutions, this work proposes a theoretical model, which aims to measure firm cash flow-at-risk. Afterwards, the proposed model is applied and tested in only one Brazilian distribution electric sector company. Such a model may be able to return the probability that a company faces a financial distress, for not being able to make due payments in the set dates.

[pt] O gerenciamento de Risco para empresas não financeiras é de grande importância, e vem recebendo cada vez mais relevância no mercado financeiro no país. O risco de mercado, ou seja, a volatilidade das variáveis as quais as companhias estão submetidas deve ser analisada com extrema atenção, dado que estas variáveis impactam de maneira significativa os fluxos de caixa e o valor destas. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo estudar a utilização do Fluxo de Caixa em Risco (Cash Flow at Risk – CfaR), um instrumento para controle de risco de mercado que simula o valor em risco do fluxo de caixa futuro de uma companhia dentro de um intervalo de confiança predefinido. Faremos uma apresentação do modelo CfaR em uma empresa não financeira, em particular uma companhia do setor Sucroenergético para se estimar a probabilidade desta empresa não possuir a liquidez necessária para arcar com seus compromissos financeiros de curto prazo. / [en] Risk Management for non financial companies is of great importance and has been gaining even more significance in the country’s financial market. The Market Risk, that is, the volatility of the variables in which companies are exposed has to be analyzed with extreme attention, given that such variations may impact strongly the companies’ cash flows and its values. This paper has the aim to study the use of the Cash Flow at Risk – CfaR, a tool to control market risk and that simulates the Value at Risk of the future cash flow of a company at a predetermined confidence interval. The goal is to make a presentation of the CfaR model to a non financial company, particularly a company in the Sucroenergetic sector to estimate the probability of this specific enterprise not having the liquid assets necessary to honor its short term commitments.

Van Rensburg and Robertson (2003a) stated that the CAPM beta has little or no relationship with returns generated by size and price to earnings sorted portfolios. This study intends to demonstrate that a reformulated CAPM beta, estimated using return on equity as opposed to share returns, unravels the size and value premium. The study proves that the “cash-flow” generated beta partially explains the cross-sectional variation in share returns when measured over the long run, specifically when portfolios are sorted on book to market, however the cash flow beta is less successful when attempting to explain the small size premium. The premise of the study is that the cash flow dynamics of share returns eventually dominate the first and second moments and thus result in cash flow based measures of risk and return that should succeed in explaining the cross-sectional variation in share returns. The study makes use of vector autoregressive models in order to examine the short term effect of structural shocks to the cash flow fundamentals of a stock or portfolio through impulse response functions as well as quantifying a long-term relationship between cash flow fundamentals and share returns using a VECM specification. The study further uses fixed effects, random effects and GMM/dynamic panel data cross-sectional regressions in order to examine the ability of the cash flow beta explaining the value and size premium. The results of the study are mixed. The cash flow beta does well in explaining the returns of portfolios sorted on book to market, but fails to do the same with size sorted portfolios. In the cash flow betas favour, it performs far better than the conventionally measured CAPM beta throughout the study.