Climate change as a result of anthropogenic activities calls for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous consequences on society. However, abatement of emission is a costly process and adversely affects the economic growth. Recent proposals, therefore, suggested a different approach i.e. Geoengineering. Instead of controlling emissions, Geoengineering modifies the climate by changing global energy fluxes either by increasing the amount of outgoing infrared radiation through reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or by decreasing the amount of solar radiation falling upon the earth’s surface by increasing the albedo (reflectivity) of the atmosphere. Most popular geoengineering strategies are Air Capture (AC) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and many economic studies have shown large net monetary benefits with their application. But, these studies neglected the risks which can arise due to potential failure to sustain SRM after few decade of its deployment. There is a concern that application of SRM will lead to increase in concentration of carbon-dioxide in atmosphere and its abrupt turning off can lead to rise in temperature and thereby huge monetary losses. In this report, consequences of abruptly turning off of SRM have been analyzed. A modified version of DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) model that incorporates negative SRM forcing and a two phase optimization procedure has been used for the study. Different outcomes such as net change in NPV of climate damage and abatement costs, maximum mean temperature of earth surface, increase in temperature, emissions control rate, carbon taxes, etc due to abrupt ending of SRM have been analyzed. Results show that application of SRM with a risk of abrupt turnoff is still more profitable compared to not using it at all. / text

Radiationmanagement (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suffers from a number of ethical and regulatory concerns, usually studied in the context of the objective to mitigate the global mean temperature. In this article, we discuss the idea that RM can be differentiated and scaled in several dimensions with potential objectives being to influence a certain climate parameter in a specific region. Some short-lived climate forcers (e.g., tropospheric aerosols) exhibit strong geographical and temporal variability, potentially leading to limited-area climate responses. Marine cloud brightening and thinning or dissolution of cirrus clouds could be operated at a rather local scale. It is therefore conceivable that such schemes could be applied with the objective to influence the climate at a regional scale. From a governance perspective, it is desirable to avoid any substantial climate effects of regional RM outside the target region. This, however, could prove impossible for a sustained, long-term RM. In turn, regional RM during limited time periods could prove more feasible without effects beyond the target area. It may be attractive as it potentially provides the opportunity to target the suppression of some extreme events such as heat waves. Research is needed on the traceability of regional RM, for example, using detection and attribution methods. Incentives and implications of regional RM need to be examined, and new governance options have to be conceived.

L'augmentation artificielle de la couche stratosphérique d'aérosol de sulfate a été proposée comme méthode pour réduire le réchauffement climatique causé par les émissions anthropiques de gaz à effet de serre. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons un modèle global atmosphère-aérosol nouvellement développé, évaluons sa performance par rapport aux observations et l'appliquons pour étudier l'efficacité et les impacts de cette forme possible d'ingénierie climatique. Nous trouvons que l'effet de refroidissement réalisable par unité de masse de soufre injectée peut diminuer de façon plus drastique qu'estimé précédemment pour des taux d'injection élevés et que des injections à plus haute altitude ou dans des régions plus grandes n'entraînent pas un refroidissement plus fort. L'efficacité de la méthode pourrait donc être plutôt limitée, tout au moins dans les cas d'injections tropicales de dioxyde de soufre que nous avons modélisées. Par ailleurs, il existe plusieurs effets secondaires potentiellement nocifs, tels que le chauffage stratosphérique dû à l'absorption de rayonnement par l'aérosol provoquant de fortes perturbations dans la dynamique atmosphérique, la composition chimique de la stratosphère et les nuages hauts. Enfin, nous trouvons que les effets radiatifs de l'injection d'aérosol stratosphérique et de l'éclaircissement des nuages marins, une autre technique de géo-ingénierie proposée, seraient largement additifs et complémentaires lors de leur application parallèle. Cela pourrait permettre de concevoir un port-folio d'approches pour atteindre des objectifs climatiques spécifiques et réduire les effets secondaires indésirables de l'ingénierie climatique. / The enhancement of the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer has been proposed as a method to abate the global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this thesis we present a newly developed global atmosphere-aerosol model, evaluate its performance against observations, and apply it to study the effectiveness and impacts of this possible form of climate engineering. We find that the achievable cooling effect per injected sulphur mass unit may decrease more drastically for larger injections than previously estimated and that injections at higher altitude or over larger areas do not result in a stronger cooling. The effectiveness of the method may therefore be rather limited, at least when using tropical injections of sulphur dioxide as in our model experiments. In addition, there are several potentially harmful side effects, such as stratospheric heating due to absorption of radiation by the aerosol causing strong perturbations in atmospheric dynamics, composition, and high-level clouds. Furthermore, we find that the radiative effects of stratospheric aerosol injection and marine cloud brightening, another proposed geoengineering technique, would be largely additive and complementary when applying them together. This might allow the design of portfolio approaches to achieve specific climate goals and reduce unintended side effects of climate engineering.

Radiationmanagement (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suffers from a number of ethical and regulatory concerns, usually studied in the context of the objective to mitigate the global mean temperature. In this article, we discuss the idea that RM can be differentiated and scaled in several dimensions with potential objectives being to influence a certain climate parameter in a specific region. Some short-lived climate forcers (e.g., tropospheric aerosols) exhibit strong geographical and temporal variability, potentially leading to limited-area climate responses. Marine cloud brightening and thinning or dissolution of cirrus clouds could be operated at a rather local scale. It is therefore conceivable that such schemes could be applied with the objective to influence the climate at a regional scale. From a governance perspective, it is desirable to avoid any substantial climate effects of regional RM outside the target region. This, however, could prove impossible for a sustained, long-term RM. In turn, regional RM during limited time periods could prove more feasible without effects beyond the target area. It may be attractive as it potentially provides the opportunity to target the suppression of some extreme events such as heat waves. Research is needed on the traceability of regional RM, for example, using detection and attribution methods. Incentives and implications of regional RM need to be examined, and new governance options have to be conceived.

Biomasseplantagen und Aufforstung zur terrestrischen Kohlenstoffdioxid-Entfernung werden derzeit als Möglichkeit diskutiert um dem anthropogenen Treibhauseffekt entgegenzuwirken. Für die Bewertung solcher Maßnahmen ist ein umfassendes Verständnis ihrer Nachhaltigkeit und möglichen Konsequenzen erforderlich. In dieser Arbeit werden biogeochemische und hydrologische Auswirkungen von Biomasseplantagen und Aufforstung quantitativ und im Kontext der Planetarischen Grenzen (PG) analysiert. Simulationen mit einem globalen Vegetationsmodell zeigen, dass die Auswirkungen von Biomasseplantagen auf die Biosphäre nicht zu vernachlässigen sind und die der historischen landwirtschaftlichen Bodennutzung noch überschreiten können. Außerdem werden Szenarien zur räumlichen Verteilung von Biomasseplantagen unter Berücksichtigung von regionalen und globalen PG für biogeochemische Flüsse, Intaktheit der Biosphäre, Landnutzungswandel und Süßwassernutzung evaluiert. Unter Einhaltung regionaler PG können nur marginale Potentiale erzielt werden. Unter kompletter Ausnutzung des Risikobereichs könnten 1.4-6.9 GtC/a entzogen werden, abhängig von Biomasseverwertungs- und Kohlenstoffspeicherungseffizienzen. Die Relevanz von koevolutionärer Dynamik zwischen dem Kohlenstoffkreislauf und gesellschaftlichem Eingreifen wird mit einem konzeptionellen Modellierungsansatz im Kontext der PG aufgezeigt. Eine Fokussierung auf das Klimaproblem ohne die ganzheitliche Berücksichtigung von erdsystemischen Interaktionen kann ungewollte Überschreitung anderer PG zur Folge haben. Die Kombination von Bevölkerungswachstum und Nahrungsmittelbedarf mit der Minimierung von Kohlenstoff- und Biodiversitätsverlusten zeigt Möglichkeiten und Grenzen für terrestrische Kohlenstoffspeicherung auf. Räumliche Umverteilung in hochproduktive Regionen sowie substantielle landwirtschaftliche Produktivitätssteigerungen ermöglichen die Ernährung von 9 Milliarden Menschen sowie ein Kohlenstoffspeicherungspotential von bis zu 98 GtC. / Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or biomass plantations are discussed as options to counteract anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, it is important to understand sustainability limits and implications of tCDR in the context of Earth system dynamics. This thesis provides a model based assessment of biogeochemical and hydrological side-effects of biomass plantations and afforestation in the context of planetary boundaries (PBs), delimiting a safe operating space for humanity. Simulations with a global vegetation model indicate considerable biogeochemical and hydrological consequences of biomass plantations which are even larger than those of historical agricultural land use. Further, land use scenarios of biomass plantations are developed with a multi-objective optimisation model considering the PBs for biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, land system change and freshwater use. Respecting PBs yields almost zero tCDR potential. The transgression of PBs into a zone of increasing risk of feedbacks at the planetary scale can provide considerable tCDR potentials of 1.4-6.9 GtC/a, depending on efficiency of biomass conversion and carbon capture and storage. The importance of co-evolutionary dynamics of the Earth''s carbon cycle and societal interventions through tCDR is demonstrated with a conceptual modelling approach in the context of carbon-related PBs. A focus on climate change without an integrated trade-off assessment may lead to navigating the Earth system out of the safe operating space due to collateral transgression of other PBs. Integrating population growth and food demand while minimising carbon and biodiversity loss demonstrates opportunities and limitations for tCDR. Substantial improvements of crop and livestock productivities and the displacement of agricultural production into regions of high productivity yield sustainable terrestrial carbon sequestration potentials of up to 98 GtC while feeding 9 billion people.