In the last 100 years, a rise in the global mean temperature has been noted, and projections show even higher temperatures in the future. The temperature rise can lead to changes in the weather patterns and therefore the thunderstorm activity in a future warmer climate has been investigated in this study. The future projections were made with an ensemble of 8 General Circulation Models downscaled with the regional climate model RCA4, developed at SMHI. Temperature and humidity data at four different levels in the atmosphere has been used to compute three different stability indices. Stability indices indicate potential for deep convection in the atmosphere, from which thunderstorms are developed. It was found that the projections show an increase in thunderstorm potential in a warmer future climate. In Sweden, the projections show an increase with about 15 more days with risk of thunderstorms at the end of the 21st century for the RCP4.5 scenario, corresponding to an increase of 40% in the south, and an even larger increase in the north. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected change in days with risk of thunderstorms corresponds to an increase about 20 days, or about 60% more thunderstorm days in south of Sweden. In other parts of Europe, the increase is expected to be even larger, mainly in the mountain regions. It was also found that the thunderstorm season is projected to be extended in the future, with more days with risk of thunder in May and September. The increase in number of days with risk of thunderstorms is a result of the greater amount of water vapour that the atmosphere is able to hold in a warmer climate. Even if thunderstorms are projected to increase, other factors counteract, such as a decrease in the vertical temperature gradient and a decrease in the difference between moisture in the upper and the middle atmosphere. Yet, taken together the days with risk of thunderstorms are projected to become more frequent. / Under de senaste hundra åren har medeltemperaturen på jorden ökat med cirka 1°C, vilket har medfört förändringar i klimatet. Temperaturen kommer att fortsätta stiga på grund av den redan förhöjda halten växthusgaser i atmosfären, och om växthusgaser fortsätter släppas ut kan det förväntas bli ännu varmare. I och med att temperaturen fortsätter stiga är det mycket som pekar på att vädret i allmänhet kommer förändras, som till exempel förändrat mönster i åskoväder. I denna studie har risken för åska i ett framtida klimat studerats. Åska och konvektion bildas framförallt på grund av tre komponenter: instabilitet i atmosfären, fuktigheten i luften och en mekanism som får luften att lyftas från marken. En instabil luftmassa fås framförallt en varm sommardag när solen värmer marken, vilket medför att luften vid marken blir betydligt varmare än luften ovanför. Den andra faktorn är beroende av fuktigheten i luften, om luften är tillräckligt fuktig finns risk att större åskmoln kan bildas. De första två faktorerna kan beskrivas med vad som kallas stabilitetsindex. I denna studie beräknades risken för djup konvektion med hjälp utav stabilitetsindex. Temperatur-och fuktighetsdata från den regionala klimatmodellen RCA4, framställd på SMHI, användes för att beräkna dessa stabilitetsindex. Studien visar på att dagar med risk för åska förväntas öka i slutet av detta seklet med omkring 10-15 dagar per år över Sverige, med ännu fler dagar med risk för åska i södra Europa. En förhöjd åskrisk kan även förväntas vid bergskedjor så som svenska fjällen och Alperna. Den främsta anledningen till att åska förväntas bli vanligare är till följd av att temperaturstigningen möjliggör högre halt vattenånga i atmosfären, och därmed kommer fuktigheten i luften att öka. En längre åsksäsong har även noteras, med tidigare start i maj, och även förlängd i september.

Le Crétacé est décrit comme la période la plus chaude des derniers 300 millions d’années. La circulation océanique et l’origine des eaux profondes alimentant les bassins restent mal connues pour le Crétacé, alors qu’elles sont capitales dans la compréhension du rôle de l’océan dans l’évolution du climat à cette époque. Les isotopes du néodyme (Nd) permettent de tracer la circulation océanique et les échanges entre les masses d’eau, et ont été utilisés pour explorer la circulation océanique globale des océans actuels et dans le passé. La composition isotopique en Nd (εNd) des océans dérive de celle des continents qui les entourent. Les courants océaniques exportent cette signature, et les eaux profondes de chaque bassin océanique ont une composition en Nd qui leur est propre. L’interprétation du signal du Nd des eaux océaniques au Crétacé est rendue difficiles du fait de l'insuffisance de la couverture spatiale et temporelle des données existantes. L’objectif de cette thèse est l’acquisition la signature en Nd sur les marges continentales et dans les régions dépourvues de données pour le Crétacé, en se focalisant prioritairement sur les zones potentielles de production d’eau profonde. L’εNd est analysé à partir d’échantillons de dents de poissons, d’oxydes encroûtant les tests de foraminifères et de fraction détritique extraits des sédiments. Les résultats sont comparés aux données de la littérature afin d’identifier les sources des eaux profondes et leur évolution au cours du Crétacé. Les liens entre les changements océanographiques, paléogéographiques et climatiques sont explorés avec un modèle climatique couplé océan-atmosphère. / The Cretaceous is depicted as the warmest period of the last 300 Ma. The oceanic circulation and location of the source zones of deep-waters are essential to understand the role of oceans in the evolution of the climate during the Cretaceous, yet they remain unclear for this period. The neodymium (Nd) isotopes are used to track oceanic circulation and exchanges between water masses, in both past and modern oceans. The Nd isotope composition (εNd) in the ocean is related to the nature of the surrounding continental landmasses. The oceanic currents transport this isotopic signature, thus every oceanic basin acquires a singular εNd. Unequivocal interpretations of the Cretaceous seawater εNd values stem from the insufficient spatial and temporal cover of available data. This PhD thesis intents to collect the Nd signature of continental margins and in regions without data for the Cretaceous, with special attention given to the potential source zones of deep-water production. Fossil fish teeth, coatings on foraminifera tests and detrital fraction from Cretaceous sediments are analyzed for their εNd. The results are compared to published data sets, in order to identify deep-waters source zones and their evolution throughout the Cretaceous. The links connecting oceanographic, palaeogeographic and climatic changes are investigated with a coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model.

This diploma thesis deals with the comparison of the results of simulations of the numerical model WRF in the prediction mode for 9 schemes of boundary layer parameterization and in the climatic mode for 4 selected schemes. The first part of the work is devoted to the WRF model and especially its options for model physics with a focus on boundary layer schemes. The second part describes the experimental setup of the performed simulations. The third part then compares the obtained results for the prediction and climate mode with the measured data.

Validation of the Regional Climate Model HIRHAM with measurements, especially from radiosondes and GPS-signal-retrieval. Analysis of synoptical structures in Antarctica and comparison of the precipitation in different phases of the Antarctic Oscillation.

No description available.

Wind power presently plays a minor role in Western Canada as compared to hydroelectric power in British Columbia and coal and natural gas thermal power generation in Alberta. However, ongoing reductions in the cost of wind power generation facilities and the increasing costs of conventional power generation, particularly if the cost to the environment is included, suggest that assessment of the present and future wind field in Western Canada is of some importance. To assess present wind power, raw hourly wind speeds and homogenized monthly mean wind speeds from 30 stations in Western Canada were analyzed over the period 1971-2000 (past). The hourly data were adjusted using the homogenized monthly means to attempt to compensate for differences in anemometer height from the standard height of 10m and changes in observing equipment at stations. A regional reanalysis product, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and simulations conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven with global reanalysis boundary forcing, were compared to the adjusted station wind-speed time-series and probability distributions. The NARR had a better temporal correlation with the observations, than the CRCM. We posit this is due to the NARR assimilating regional observations, whereas the CRCM did not. The NARR was generally worse than the CRCM in reproducing the observed speed distribution, possibly due to the crude representation of the regional topography in NARR. While the CRCM was run at both standard (45 km) and fine (15 km) resolution, the fine grid spacing does not always provide better results: the character of the surrounding topography appears to be an important factor for determining the level of agreement. Multiple simulations of the CRCM at the 45 km resolution were also driven by two global climate models (GCMs) over the periods 1971-2000 (using only historic emissions) and 2031-2060 (using the A2 emissions scenario). In light of the CRCM biases relative to the observations, these simulations were calibrated using quantile-quantile matching to the adjusted station observations to obtain ensembles of 9 and 25 projected wind speed distributions for the 2031-2060 period (future) at the station locations. Both bias correction and change factor techniques were used for calibration. At most station locations modest increases in mean wind speed were found for most of the projected distributions, but with a large variance. Estimates of wind power density for the projected speed distributions were made using a relationship between wind speed and power from a CRCM simulation for both time periods using the 15km grid. As would be expected from the wind speed results and the proportionality of wind power to the cube of wind speed, wind power at the station locations is more likely than not to increase in the 2031-2060 period from the 1971-2000 period. Relative changes in mean wind speeds at station locations were found to be insensitive to the station observations and choice of calibration technique, suggesting that we estimate relative change at all 45km grid points using all pairs of past/future mean wind speeds from the CRCM simulations. Overall, our results suggest that wind energy resources in Western Canada are reasonably likely to increase at least modestly in the future. / Graduate / 0725 / 0608 / jtdaines@uvic.ca

The main objective of this research was to establish a model for emotional intelligence as a determinant of organisational climate. This model should help companies and organisational psychologists to better understand the interrelatedness of the two constructs in order to optimally enhance organisational performance. This research was conducted in a large organisation, utilising a large sample (n = 1 612) of employees in the financial services industry. During the first phase of this research, emotional intelligence was conceptualised from literature research within the trait paradigm and organisational climate as a molar construct. A theoretical model of emotional intelligence as a determinant of organisational climate was developed and suggested a link to organisational output. During the second phase of this research (empirical research), assessment instruments for emotional intelligence (the Gerber Emotional Intelligence Scale) and organisational climate (the High Performance Climate Questionnaire) were developed and validated. Thereafter an assessment instrument for work output was designed to test the link with performance. The structural equation model (SEM) produced a new best-fitting model of emotional intelligence, organisational climate and work output. The model indicates that emotional intelligence does not correlate with work output as expected, but organisational climate does correlates moderately with work output and explains almost 40% of the variance in work output. The strongest influence seems to flow from teamwork and management. The regression weights between emotional intelligence and organisational climate were trivial, although the model fit indices were all within an acceptable range. The researcher attributed the lack of support for the model to the characteristics of the employees of this type of organisation and concluded that emotional intelligence should not be seen as a determinant of organisational climate in this specific financial services sector. The results further indicate that significant differences exist between the organisational climate experiences of four biographical categories (race, position level, age and geographical region) and also for the categories of position level and age for work output. These differences need to be considered when developing future interventions. This research contributes towards a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between emotional intelligence, organisational climate and work output. The three newly developed questionnaires and the SEM could help researchers and practitioners to apply the research model in other industries and subsequently improve organisational outputs. / Industrial and Organisational Psychology / D. Comm. (Industrial and Organisational Psychology)

The main objective of this research was to establish a model for emotional intelligence as a determinant of organisational climate. This model should help companies and organisational psychologists to better understand the interrelatedness of the two constructs in order to optimally enhance organisational performance. This research was conducted in a large organisation, utilising a large sample (n = 1 612) of employees in the financial services industry. During the first phase of this research, emotional intelligence was conceptualised from literature research within the trait paradigm and organisational climate as a molar construct. A theoretical model of emotional intelligence as a determinant of organisational climate was developed and suggested a link to organisational output. During the second phase of this research (empirical research), assessment instruments for emotional intelligence (the Gerber Emotional Intelligence Scale) and organisational climate (the High Performance Climate Questionnaire) were developed and validated. Thereafter an assessment instrument for work output was designed to test the link with performance. The structural equation model (SEM) produced a new best-fitting model of emotional intelligence, organisational climate and work output. The model indicates that emotional intelligence does not correlate with work output as expected, but organisational climate does correlates moderately with work output and explains almost 40% of the variance in work output. The strongest influence seems to flow from teamwork and management. The regression weights between emotional intelligence and organisational climate were trivial, although the model fit indices were all within an acceptable range. The researcher attributed the lack of support for the model to the characteristics of the employees of this type of organisation and concluded that emotional intelligence should not be seen as a determinant of organisational climate in this specific financial services sector. The results further indicate that significant differences exist between the organisational climate experiences of four biographical categories (race, position level, age and geographical region) and also for the categories of position level and age for work output. These differences need to be considered when developing future interventions. This research contributes towards a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between emotional intelligence, organisational climate and work output. The three newly developed questionnaires and the SEM could help researchers and practitioners to apply the research model in other industries and subsequently improve organisational outputs. / Industrial and Organisational Psychology / D. Comm. (Industrial and Organisational Psychology)

To understand and to predict the weather and climate, numerical models are important tools and it is crucial that the controlling processes are described correctly. Since 70% of the global surface is covered with water the description how the ocean and atmosphere communicates has a considerable impact. The ocean–atmosphere exchange occurs through transport of momentum (friction) and heat, governed by turbulent eddies. The sea surface is also an important source of turbulence in both directions. The scales of the turbulent eddies cannot be resolved in ocean and climate models. Therefore, the turbulent exchanges have to be related to mean variables, such as wind speed and temperature differences. By using measurements, new methods to describe the air–sea exchange during two specific processes were developed. These processes are the so-called UVCN-regime (Unstable Very Close to Neutral stratification) and swell, i.e. waves which are not produced by the local wind. These processes were included in an ocean model and in a regional atmospheric climate model and the impact was investigated. The UVCN-regime enhances the heat transport significantly during the autumn and winter months in the ocean model. This results in a shallower well-mixed surface layer in the ocean. Wind-following swell reduces the surface friction, which is very important for the atmosphere. Some secondary effects in the climate model are reduced low-level cloud cover and reduced precipitation by more than 10% over sea areas. Locally and for short periods the impact is large. It is important to include the UVCN-regime and the swell impact in models, to make simulations more reliable.

Ocean wind waves represent the atmosphere-ocean boundary, playing a central role in the air-sea exchanging processes. Heat, mass and momentum are transferred across this boundary, with waves mediating the exchange of principally the momentum between the winds and the ocean surface. During the generation process waves are called wind sea. When they leave their generation area or outrun their generating wind they are called swell. The wave field can be said to be dominated either by wind sea or swell. Depending on the wave regime the momentum and energy exchanging processes and the degree of coupling between the waves and the wind is different. During the growing process, waves act as a drag on the surface wind and the momentum flux is directed downward. When swell dominates the wave field a reverse momentum flux mechanism occurs triggered by swell waves traveling considerably faster than the surface winds. The momentum transfer is now directed from the waves to the atmosphere, and takes place because swell waves perform work on the atmosphere as part of their attenuation process. This upward momentum transfer has an impact on the lower atmosphere dynamics, and on the overall turbulence structure of the boundary layer. A detailed qualitative climatology of the global wind sea and swell fields from wave reanalysis data, is presented, revealing a very strong swell dominance of the World Ocean. The areas of larger potential impact of swell on the atmosphere, from a climatological point of view, are also studied. A model that reproduces the swell impact on the lower atmosphere dynamics, conceptually based on the energy transfer from the waves to the atmosphere, is presented – a  new parameterization for the wave-induced stress is also proposed. The model results are compared with field observations. A modeling simulation, using a coupled wave-atmosphere model system, is used to study the impact of swell in a regional climate model, by using different formulations on how to introduce the wave state effect in the modeling system. / Gränsen mellan hav och atmosfär beskrivs av vågor, dessa spelar en central roll i utbytesprocesser mellan hav och atmosfär. Värme, massa och rörelsemängd överförs vid ytan och utbytet av rörelsemängd mellan vind och havsyta styrs i stor utsträckning av vågorna. Då vågor skapas kallas de för vinddrivna vågor. När vågorna sedan lämnar området där de genererats eller rör sig fortare än den vind som genererat dem kallas de dyning. Ett vågfält kan sägas vara dominerat av antingen vinddrivna vågor eller dyningsvågor. Beroende på vilken vågregim som råder så är kopplingen mellan vågor och vind olika och därmed också utbytesprocesserna för rörelsemängd och energi. Då vågorna genereras fungerar de som en bromsande kraft för vinden och impulsutbytet är nedåtriktat. När dyning dominerar vågfältet inträffar en mekanism för omvänt impulsutbyte som sätts igång av dyningsvågor som färdas avsevärt snabbare än vinden. Rörelsemängd överförs då från vågorna till atmosfären, eftersom dyningsvågorna utför arbete på atmosfären då de dämpas. Den uppåtriktade transporten av rörelsemängd har en stor effekt på dynamiken och turbulensstrukturen i lägre delen av atmosfären. En detaljerad kvalitativ klimatologi av globala vågfält (vinddrivna och dyning) från återanalysdata presenteras och visar att dyning dominerar vågfältet på världshaven. Områden där man kan förvänta sig störst effekt av dyning på atmosfären har identifierats. En konceptuellt baserad modell som reproducerar effekten av dyning på dynamiken i lägre delen av atmosfären presenteras. Modellen styrs av överföring av energi från vågor till atmosfären. I modellen föreslås även en ny parameterisering för våginducerad kraft på havsytan. Modellresultaten är utvärderade mot fältmätningar. En regional klimatmodell, med ett kopplat våg-atmosfärssystem, har använts för att studera den långtida effekten av dyning vid klimatsimulering. Olika formuleringar för beskrivningen av vågornas effekt på atmosfären har använts, beroende på om vinddrivna vågor eller dyning dominerar vågfältet.