Com o crescente debate a respeito da contribuição do homem nas emissões de gases causadores do efeito estufa, além da pressão da sociedade por um comprometimento maior das lideranças mundiais com políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário estudar os efeitos que a adoção de políticas climáticas pelos países do chamado Anexo I (desenvolvidos) e pelos que pertencem ao Não-Anexo I (em desenvolvimento) podem ter sobre a economia brasileira. Também é importante analisar como se daria este impacto em um contexto onde o Brasil adotaria políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, principalmente pelo fato do país ser responsável por uma parcela considerável de gases causadores do efeito estufa, devido às atividades relacionadas às mudanças no uso da terra, agricultura e pecuária, bem como pela crescente pressão para um compromisso mundial de esforço de redução de emissões. O presente trabalho buscou estimar cenários para o Brasil, levando-se em consideração políticas ambientais domésticas e internacionais já discutidas ou em aplicação pelos países desenvolvidos, e assim, verificar quais os impactos sobre as economias em termos de bem-estar e produto. / With the growing debate about the contribution of human emissions of greenhouse gases, along with pressure from society for a greater commitment of world leaders with policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to study the effects that adoption of climate policies by the countries of the so-called Annex I (developed) and those who belong to non-Annex I (developing) may have on the Brazilian economy. It is also important to analyze how this impact would occur in a context where Brazil would adopt policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, mainly because the country is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions due to activities related to changes in land use, agriculture and livestock, as well as the increasing pressure for a global commitment to emissions reduction effort. The present study sought to estimate scenarios for Brazil, taking into account domestic and international environmental policies already discussed or implemented by developed countries, and thus determine the impacts on the economies in terms of welfare and product.

Cette thèse propose des apports méthodologiques, techniques et macroéconomiques sur la transition énergétique pour atténuer les changements climatiques. La première partie apporte un éclairage théorique sur modèles empiriques du système énergie-économie-environnement. Ces modèles présentent des incertitudes autour des valeurs de paramètres, des mécanismes structurels et de la pertinence des échelles du modèle. L'étude du rôle de l'analyse prospective et de ses outils montre un traitement insuffisant de l'incertitude structurelle contenue dans les modèles. Par conséquent, nous étudions en profondeur les outils appliqués d'analyse prospective pour révéler la vision prospective qu'ils incarnent à travers trois axes: les interdépendances qu'ils incorporent, les mécanismes de transformation et la représentation de la transition. Tout d'abord, les interdépendances qu'ils comprennent se manifestent en termes de schémas comptables, boucle de rétroaction entre énergie et croissance économique, et la représentation de la valeur ajoutée et des niveaux d'activité par rapport aux technologies. Puis, les forces de transformation sont discutées: le moteur de la croissance économique ainsi que la source de l'évolution des tendances de la demande et le progrès technique. Enfin, nous commentons la manière habituelle dont la transition est représentée, c'est-à-dire comme une trajectoire à l'équilibre pour la dynamique technologique, les choix économiques ainsi que la représentation des marchés. Nous concluons que cette spécification de la transition est inhérente à la fonction de production traditionnelle pour représenter les choix à la fois techniques et économiques. Cela entraîne une discussion sur le statut de l'équilibre macro-économique dans l'outil Imaclim, qui est un modèle walrasien d'équilibre général avec une transition en déséquilibre. Suite à cette analyse méthodologique, nous donnons des exemples de travaux empiriques menés avec le modèle Imaclim-R. Premièrement, nous examinons à l'échelle mondiale l'inclusion de technologies dans le modèle Imaclim-R Monde pour évaluer le potentiel, les limites et l'impact sur le calendrier de l'action des options pour la bioénergie et des politiques d'efficacité énergétique. Nous expliquons techniquement comment les technologies de la bioénergie sont inclus dans le modèle pour faire la lumière sur la complémentarité entre bioénergie et CCS et évaluer les impacts macroéconomiques temporels de l'atténuation du changement climatique. En outre, nous analysons la représentation de l'efficacité énergétique avec une analyse détaillée des mécanismes par lesquels elle influe sur la croissance et interagit avec le calendrier de l'atténuation climatique. Nous présentons ensuite le rôle du modèle Imaclim-R France pour impliquer les parties prenantes autour de la création de scénarios participatifs. Ensuite, nous discutons des impacts technologiques et macroéconomiques de ces scénarios. En particulier, nous examinons les conséquences pour les besoins d'investissement et de montrer que la taxe carbone peut être réduite avec un signal politique fort / This dissertation discusses methodological, technical and macroeconomic insights on the energy transition for climate mitigation. The first part deals with the theoretical analysis of empirical models of the energy-economy-environment system. Model present uncertainties in terms of parameter values, structural mechanisms and the pertinence of the model scales. The study of the role of forward-looking analysis and its tools show an insufficient treatment of the structural uncertainty contained within the models. Therefore, we study in depth the applied tools of forward-looking analysis to elicit the forward-looking vision they embody through three axes. the interdependences they include, the transformation mechanisms and the transition representation. First, the interdependences they include manifest in terms of accounting schemes, feedback loop between energy and economic growth, value added, and the representation of activity levels in relation to technologies. Then, the transformation drivers are discussed: the economic growth engine as well as the source of the evolution of demand patterns and technical progress. Finally, we comment on the widely spread way of the representation the transition as a pathway in equilibrium for the technology dynamics, the economic choices as well as the markets representation. We conclude that this specification of the transition is inherent to traditional production function to represent both technical and economic choices. This brings about a discussion on the status of the macroeconomic equilibrium in the Imaclim tool, which is Walrasian CGE model with a transition in disequilibrium. The second part regroups empirical studies of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation. First, we examine at the global level the inclusion of technologies in the Imaclim-R World model to assess the potential, limitations and the impact on the timing of action of bioenergy options and energy efficiency policies. We explain technically how bioenergy technologies are included within the model to shed light on the complementarity of bioenergy and CCS and assess their impact of the temporal macroeconomic impacts of climate mitigation. Also, we present the representation of energy efficiency with a detailed analysis of the mechanisms through which it impacts growth and assess the interplay with the timing of climate mitigation. Second, we present a study to design energy transition scenarios at the French level with stakeholder involvement and discuss the macroeconomic impacts, in particular on investment. We present the role of the Imaclim-R France model to involve stakeholders around participative scenario creation. Then, we discuss the technological and macroeconomic impacts of these scenarios. In particular, we examine the consequences for investment needs and show that the carbon tax can be reduced with a strong political signal

While persons with disabilities are not a homogenous group, most are likely to be disproportionately impacted by climate change and the “natural” disasters that result from these changes. As a social worker living with chronic health conditions and a particular interest in disability and public policy, I was curious about how Canada’s Federal Government climate change policies and initiatives address persons with disabilities and their diverse needs. My research explored how matters of health and disability have been taken up in recent Canadian Federal Government climate change policies and strategies through an analysis of six significant climate change documents. Framed by a feminist, poststructural-inspired critical disability lens, the documents were examined through an inductive approach to reflexive thematic analysis, with the aim of contributing to critical conversations around the intersections of disability justice, climate justice, and related social justice matters. Through reflexive thematic analysis, I identified three key themes: persons with disabilities are widely absent from Canadian Federal Government climate change documents, both as collaborators as well as groups considered in climate change planning; adaptation to climate change and climate resilience are central in government climate mitigation strategies; and healthy and normative body-minds are presumed by the documents, which broadly assume all people have the same capacities to adapt. Subthemes included both a prioritization of the economy, and a foregrounding of a productive, compulsory, able-bodied and able-minded citizen around which climate change strategies are designed. I conclude with some suggestions for how Canada’s climate change policies may become more inclusive for persons with disabilities. / Graduate

The global climate is changing rapidly, which pronounces the need for transforming the energy system. The Swedish municipalities have been identified as key actors in Sweden’s decarbonisation due to their far-reaching responsibilities, which encompass energy planning. The municipalities are required to have a Municipal Energy Plan (MEP) regarding the provision of energy, but have increasingly shown climate awareness. Further, the municipalities are responsible also for the spatial planning, and increased climate efforts will largely be dependent on how this planning is conducted. However, the energy system also affects various other environmental impacts. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) can aid to take these impacts and associated National Environmental Quality Objectives (NEQOs) into account, which is necessary in order to avoid that other negative environmental impacts occur due to a decarbonisation and that synergies between NEQOs instead could be utilised. Thus, this thesis aims to examine current municipal energy planning practice and the integration of energy and climate targets into comprehensive planning (Paper I), as well as to explore the performance of SEA and the consideration of NEQOs in municipal energy planning (Paper II). Further, suggestions for strengthening the practice is developed (Paper I and II).To achieve the aims, a document analysis, statistical analyses, thematic analyses and an interview study has been employed. This thesis shows that the Act on Municipal Energy Planning is not followed and that the municipalities proactively focuses on climate change mitigation instead. Moreover, a link between MEPs and Comprehensive Plans is seen regarding energy and climate-related targets, and a continuous energy planning can thus be one way of achieving a spatial planning in line with the climate objectives. SEA is seldom performed despite legal requirements, due to a deficient screening practice. However, when performed, SEA can increase the consideration of NEQOs, particularly those in which negative environmental impacts of climate efforts can occur. The consideration of NEQOs could thus help enhance synergies between a decarbonisation and other NEQOs, which could mobilise support for the MEP and aid its implementation. / <p>QC 20181120</p>

Die Umsetzung einer effektiven Klimapolitik ermöglicht die Verringerung von Treibhausgasemissionen und damit die Eindämmung des Klimawandels. Eine solche Politik hat jedoch negative Auswirkungen auf die direkt oder indirekt in der fossilen Industrie tätigen Akteure, wenn deren Vermögensgegenstände wertlos werden (auch „Asset Stranding“ genannt). Diese Arbeit leistet einen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Wechselwirkung zwischen Klimapolitik und Asset Stranding: Sie untersucht angebotsseitige Politikmaßnahmen in der fossilen Brennstoffindustrie, das Ausmaß und die Verteilung von Asset Stranding auf Ebene der Anlagenbesitzer im Energiesektor und die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Asset Stranding, Erwartungen über Klimapolitik und systemischen Finanzkrisen. Darüber hinaus gibt die Arbeit einen Überblick über die Literatur im Bereich Klimaökonomie zu Asset Stranding und zu entgangenen Gewinnen der Produzenten fossiler Brennstoffe aufgrund von Klimapolitik. Die Arbeit besteht aus fünf Artikeln (Kapitel 2-6), die von einer allgemeinen Einleitung und einer Schlussfolgerung umschlossen werden. / The implementation of effective climate policies facilitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigating climate change. Such policies, however, have adverse effects on stakeholders directly or indirectly engaged in the fossil industry if they find the value of their assets "stranded". This thesis contributes to our understanding of the interaction between climate policies and asset stranding: It studies supply-side policies in the upstream fossil fuel extraction industry, the extent and distribution of stranded assets at the asset owner level in the power sector, and the interaction of asset stranding, expectations of climate policies, and financial systemic crises. Further, the thesis surveys the climate economics literature on stranded assets and fossil fuel producers' lost profits due to climate policies. The thesis is a compilation of five articles (Chapters 2-6) encased by a general introduction and a conclusion.

L'intégration massive des énergies renouvelables variables (EnRV) provoque d'importants changements dans le système électrique. Auparavant développé de manière vertical et centralisé, le système était robuste et fiable. Cependant, la production des EnRV est intermittente et peu prévisible. Ainsi, le système doit être plus flexible grâce à de nouvelles options telles que la maîtrise de la demande, le stockage ou l'effacement de la production EnRV. Cependant, le potentiel des EnRV est réparti inégalement en Europe et avec d'importants taux de pénétration d'EnRV, les échanges d'électricité entre les régions vont augmenter provoquant des congestions dans le réseau. Ainsi, les options de flexibilité ne pourront peut-être pas réduire ces congestions. Pour analyser ces effets, le travail mené dans cette thèse utilise le modèle de prospective long terme POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) couplé avec le nouveau module du secteur électrique EUTGRID (EUropean – Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch). Ce module inclut une représentation détaillée du réseau de transport européen d'électricité avec un calcul des flux plus réaliste. De plus, les renforcements sont déterminés suivant les coûts de congestion de chaque ligne. Ce nouveau couplage permet d'avoir une évolution dynamique du réseau de transport. Le rôle du réseau de transport est ensuite analysé et comparé avec les autres options de flexibilité. Les investissements dans le réseau augmentent ainsi fortement avec d'importants taux de pénétration des EnRV alors que les options de flexibilité ne peuvent pas intégralement remplacer le réseau. Finalement, un travail exploratoire est mené avec l'introduction de réseaux de distribution génériques (urbain, semi-urbain and rural) dans EUTGRID. Les résultats montrent que les renforcements sont légèrement décalés avec une augmentation de l'utilisation des technologies de back-up (i.e. centrales à gaz) ce qui augmente les émissions totales. / The power system is facing a major shift with the large-scale development of variable renewable energy sources (VRES). This vertical and centralized architecture helped the system to be robust and reliable. However, VRES production is intermittent and less predictable. As a result, the system needs to add more flexibility with new options such as Demand Side Management, storage technologies and VREs curtailment. But renewable energies potentials are unevenly distributed in Europe and, with high shares of VREs, power flows exchanges will increase between specific regions. As a result, the existing transmission grid would face congestions and these flexibility options might not be sufficient to alleviate these bottlenecks. To analyse these impacts, the work carried in this thesis uses the long-term energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) coupled with the new European power sector module EUTGRID (EUropean – Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch). It includes a detailed transmission grid and more realistic power flows with a DC-OPF. A grid investment mechanism is also incorporated to determine the grid investments based on nodal prices. This new coupling permits to get a dynamic evolution of the transmission grid. The role of the transmission grid is being assessed and compared with other flexibility options. The grid investments increase largely with important development of VRES while other flexibility options cannot completely replace them. Finally, an exploratory work is being carried with the introduction of generic distribution grids (urban, semi-urban and urban) in EUTGRID. The results show that the reinforcements are slightly delayed with a greater use of back-up technologies which increases the total emissions.