Since the advent of the industrial era atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have been on the rise leading to increasing global mean temperatures. Through increasing temperatures and changes to distributions of precipitation, climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle which will directly impact surface water sources while the impacts to groundwater are reflected through changes in recharge to the water table. The IPCC (2001) reports that limited investigations have been conducted regarding the impacts of climate change to groundwater resources. The complexity of evaluating the hydrologic impacts of climate change requires the use of a numerical model. This thesis investigates the state of the science of conjunctive surface-subsurface water modeling with the aim of determining a suitable approach for conducting long-term transient simulations at the watershed scale. As a result of this investigation, a coupled modeling approach is adopted using HELP3 to simulate surface and vadose zone processes and HydroSphere to simulate saturated flow of groundwater. This approach is applied to the Alder Creek Watershed, which is a subwatershed of the Grand River Watershed and located near Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario. The Alder Creek Watershed is a suitable case study for the evaluation of climate change scenarios as it has been well characterized from previous studies and it is relatively small in size. Two contrasting scenarios of climate change (i.e., drier and wetter futures) are evaluated relative to a reference scenario that is based on the historical climatic record of the region. The simulation results show a strong impact upon the timing of hydrologic processes, shifting the spring snow melt to earlier in the year leading to an overall decrease in runoff and increase in infiltration for both drier and wetter future climate scenarios. Both climate change scenarios showed a marked increase to overall evapotranspiration which is most pronounced in the summer months. The impacts to groundwater are more subdued relative to surface water. This is attributed to the climate forcing perturbations being attenuated by the shift of the spring snow melt and the transient storage effects of the vadose zone, which can be significant given the hummocky terrain of the region. The simulation results show a small overall rise of groundwater elevations resulting from the simulated increase in infiltration for both climate change scenarios.

During the last decade, climate change has prolonged droughts and increased rainfall intensity, which has resulted in an increase in the number of flash floods and tropical storms. These events are affecting Costa Rica’s agriculture sector and are impacting the country’s food security. The main objective of this study was to evaluate farmers' local knowledge and perceptions about climate change and determine the impacts of the payment for environmental services (PES) programme on assisting farmers to integrate information and use innovative technologies to adapt to climate change. Research indicates that although climate change is affecting Costa Rican agriculture, there are adaptation strategies to help alleviate the negative impacts. Farmers in two geographical areas were interviewed to evaluate their integration of climate change information into land management practices. The two areas were Esparza, in the northern part of the province of Puntarenas, and Durika, in southern Puntarenas, Costa Rica. Farmers interviewed in Esparza were chosen based on their involvement in a PES project developed by Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigacíón y Enseñanza (CATIE). Farmers in Durika were chosen because they practice sustainable agricultural techniques that more formally integrate climate change information. Results showed that the PES project was a successful approach to encourage farmers to adapt to climate change. Farmers in Durika and Esparza mentioned the importance of financial incentives combined with improved knowledge and understanding of climate change to encourage adaptation. Important adaptation strategies implemented in Esparza included the use of agroforestry, Brachiaria spp. grasses, water conservation and protection, and supplements. Based on the success of CATIE’s project combined with comments made from farmers in Durika, recommendations are made to improve this project and extend information into the rest of the country.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the water from agricultural areas on a regional scale over a 40 year time period is the subject of this thesis. The Grand River watershed spans approximately 290 km with an area of approximately 6,800 km². Approximately 90% of the watershed is agricultural land some of which is tile drained. These tile drains, which cover approximately 15% of the total land of the watershed, are installed to augment field drainage. The tile drains usually outlet somewhere along the perimeter of a property; the discharge then typically moves along the surface until it discharges into a surface water body such as a river, pond, or lake. Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural tile drainage at a watershed scale can be achieved using modelling. The tile drains can affect both the water quality and the water quantity of a watershed. With the potential climatic changes, the storm intensity, and growing season also could change. Spatial data for the Grand River watershed was gathered to allow for further simulation. The data for tile drained areas was added to land use/land class and soil data for the watershed to produce a map of tile drained agricultural areas. Climate change scenarios were then simulated for each cell. Three climate change scenarios were investigated to determine the impact on tile drain discharge and the hydrological process for the watershed. The climate change scenarios that were chosen were the A2, A1B, and the B1 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. After the simulations were completed for the tiled areas and the results collected, the simulations showed the greatest impact of tile drain discharge in the spring season as well as the fall season. For the tiled cells the annual average discharge was approximately 0.22 m3/ha for 1999. The average discharge was approximately 0.15 m3/ha for April of 1999. April accounted for approximately 65% of the annual tile drainage for 1999. The climate change scenarios were simulated and the average annual discharge increased approximately 0.023 m3/ha and 0.021 m3/ha for the A2 and A1B scenarios respectively. The B1 scenario had an average annual decrease of approximately 0.022 m3/ha.

Numerous studies emphasize that climate, particularly temperature, is one of the most important resources of a tourist destination. With the onset of climate change, this climatic parameter of tourist destinations may change, leading some scientists and the media to claim that some destinations, including the Mediterranean, will become “too hot” for tourist comfort by as early as 2020 or 2030. This study examines tourists’ perceived and stated ideal and unacceptable conditions for multiple climate variables (temperature, rain, wind and sky conditions) for two popular Mediterranean tourism segments; beach/3S and urban sightseeing holidays. A survey instrument was administered to university students (n=866) in five countries that represent source markets for the Mediterranean (Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland). The survey results were applied to a baseline climate (1961-1990) and a minimum and maximum climate change scenario (A1B emission scenario for 2080-2099). With the exception of Athens, Greece, the results suggest that the media’s claims are erroneous, with only one urban destination incurring “unacceptably hot” conditions by mid-century and only a few destinations becoming “unacceptably hot” by the end of the 21st century. A more imminent threat could be the influence the media claims may have on tourists’ perception of the climate in the Mediterranean region. It is anticipated that these findings will hold important implications for critically assessing the potential impact of climate change in the study area and other destinations more broadly, and can be used to refine models intended to predict tourism demand and international tourism flows under climate change.

Snow Albedo Feedback (SAF) in response to climate change is a process that can amplify the climate warming response to increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations from the 20th to the 21st Century. Warmer surface air temperature may induce snowmelt and expose darker underlying surfaces which absorb more incoming solar radiation and further increase the ambient temperature. Springtime SAF in the fully Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models is associated with summertime circulation. However, no clear physical mechanism explaining this link has been found. Furthermore, there is a large intermodel spread in the projection of SAF among the CMIP3 models which is primarily controlled through the parameterization of snow albedo in each model. Limited work was conducted on assessing the response of SAF to that of an isolated controlling parameter such as snow albedo. Here, the uncoupled Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 2.1 (AM2.1) was used to diagnose SAF in the CMIP3 models by conducting a set of sensitivity experiments with perturbed snow albedo. This was performed to remove indirect external climate factors that may influence SAF and to use the simplified uncoupled model to understand the behaviours exhibited by the complex coupled models. Snow cover extent (SNC) and snow metamorphosis as a function of temperature (TEM) that influences SAF, as well as the knock-on effects of SAF on soil moisture, snow mass, snow melt and circulation were analyzed using both the CMIP3 and AM2.1 models. In addition, it was hypothesized that summertime Land Sea Contrast response to climate change (dLSC) is a physical mechanism that induces summertime circulation patterns in relation to springtime SAF. It is found that the AM2.1 can similarly reproduce SNC and TEM as well as the spread in SAF exhibited in the CMIP3 models. However, no robust link can be determined between SAF and its knock-on effects. Furthermore, the correlation between SAF and dLSC is not significant and thus dLSC is not a physical mechanism that influences the summertime circulation patterns in response to climate change. It is the expectation that these research results can provide an in-depth understanding of the role of SAF among fully coupled GCMs through tests performed by the uncoupled simulation.

Climate Change has been related to GHG emissions, of both natural and anthropogenic origin. Agricultural management practices like reduced tillage and intensive cropping systems have a significant impact on the flow of C among its sources and sinks. These management practices involve complex biophysical interactions resulting in a range of impacts on farm income and GHG abatement. The focus of this study was on the impact of alternative annual crop tillage systems on GHG emissions and income to better inform climate change mitigation policy in agriculture. Besides tillage intensity, cropping intensity and crop mix and the interaction of these characteristics with the biological and physical attributes, the emission and income effects are a function of factor inputs, factor costs and commodity prices. Therefpre, the analysis was multi-disciplinary in nature and the tool of choice that depicts impacts on individual indicators is Trade-off Analysis (TOA). A component of risk analysis was also included. The analysis focused on short and long-term performance, the uncertainty of soil N2O emission coefficients as well as changes in weather patterns. As the adoption of reduced till has been a relatively recent development and as such, there is not a lot of long-term biophysical and economic data, which limits the effectiveness of econometric analysis. The different scenarios of uncertainty and long-term impacts were analysed by use of a simulation model. The model was parameterised with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 coefficients, a farmer survey, and cost data from Saskatchewan Agriculture Agri-Food and Rural Revitalization (SAFRR) for 2004. Results indicated that net GHG emissions were relatively lower for reduced tillage management while conventional tillage may be relatively more attractive from an economic perspective. However, results indicated that such economic factors as risk and economies of size may have a significant influence on this latter result. The study also highlighted the need to evaluate the GHG abatement potential of reduced tillage while simultaneously considering the abatement capability of the farm.

This project involves studying the connection between climate change and large scale conflict within Darfur. This has been accomplished by initially giving a summary of the history of Sudan and Darfur Sudan, while ending with a chronology of events leading up to 2002/3 when large scale conflict between ethnic groups and the state occured in Darfur. This is followed by an analysis of the events leading up to conflict, focusing on the group vs. group and group vs. state interacton over resources in the area which climate change brought about. Following this  is a discussion section in which relevant connections between the conflict in Dafur and outside forces are discussed. The conclusion lends to the fact that the confllict in Dafur is related to flow policies of managing confclit emitted from Khartoum.

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system via oceanic and atmospheric processes. A suite of numerical simulations have been conducted and the results show that both oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes induced by AMOC changes can have a profound impact on tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) conditions, but their dominance varies in different parts of the tropical oceans. The oceanic process has a dominant control on SST and SSS response to AMOC changes in the South Tropical Atlantic, while the atmospheric teleconnection is mainly responsible for SST and SSS changes over the North Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the period of reduced AMOC. The finding has significant implication for the interpretation of the paleotemperature reconstructions over the southern Caribbean and the western Tropical Atlantic regions during the Younger Dryas. It suggests that the strong spatial inhomogeneity of the SST change revealed by the proxy records in these regions may be attributed to the competing oceanic and atmospheric processes that dominate the SST response. Similar mechanisms may also explain the reconstructed paleo-salinity change in the tropical Atlantic, which shows a basin-wide increase in SSS during the Younger Dryas, according to recent paleo climate studies. Finally, we show that atmospheric teleconnection induced by the surface cooling of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific in response to a weakened AMOC, is a leading physical mechanism that dictates the behavior of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to AMOC changes. However, depending on its origin, the atmospheric teleconnection can affect ENSO variability in different ways. The atmospheric process associated with the North Atlantic cooling tends to enhance El Nino occurrence with a deepened mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific, whereas the atmospheric process associated with the North Pacific cooling tends to produce more La Nina events with a reduced mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Preliminary analysis suggests that the change in ENSO characteristics is associated with the change in internal atmospheric variability caused by the surface cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Complex nature of the underlying dynamics concerning the effect of the AMOC on ENSO calls for further investigation into this problem.

The variation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from the mid-nineteenth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century is explored using an ocean reanalysis. Decadal variability and trends in the strength, frequency, duration, and propagation direction of ENSO events is investigated. The hypothesis that there are different types of ENSO and that the location of ENSO is shifting to the west Pacific is also studied. The study uses the latest version of an ocean reanalysis, called SODA 2.2.4 (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation), which covers the period from 1871 through 2008. The reanalysis uses an eddy-permitting resolution model of the ocean forced with boundary conditions available from an atmospheric reanalysis that covers the same period. SODA 2.2.4 assimilates all available hydrographic and surface marine observations of temperature and salinity to produce a "best estimate" of the ocean state in terms of temperature, current, salinity, and sea surface height. A new index based on the first moment of anomalous sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific is used to describe the location and strength of warm and cold events. The results show strong decadal variability in the strength of El Nino events but little trend during the period of 1871-2008. The strength of La Nina events has neither prominent decadal variation nor a trend. The index also documents changes in frequency, duration, and location of ENSO events. The study shows that the frequency of El Nino varies considerably over the record. Given the large variance in the period of ENSO it is difficult to reliably determine if there has been a change in the period of El Nino events. The location of warming during El Nino can be described by a normal distribution centered at about 140 degrees W. The strength and frequency of ENSO events have very little trend indicating negligible impact from global warming.

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