Water security is becoming an increasing concern for communities in the southwestern United States. Projected decreases in water availability due to climate change combined with increased demands from a rapidly growing population have many concerned about the sustainability of the water supply in coming years. As water availability becomes an increasing concern, greater efficiencies must be made to increase the resilience of the water supply system. This dissertation analyzes the efforts of Tucson, Arizona households to conserve water during the hottest and driest decade in the city's recorded history, between 2000 and 2009. This study utilizes survey data to statistically examine the motivations for household adoption of five conservation methods: rainwater harvesting systems, graywater systems, xeriscaping, high-efficiency devices and volunteerism for public water conservation projects. Following the statistical analysis, interviews were conducted with participants to provide further context for analyzing the results. This mixed method approach reveals that drought alone did little to directly encourage household water conservation over the decade. However, public water conservation initiatives that were launched during the decade made a significant contribution to increasing household water conservation. Households consistently cited a desire for more information about the implications of the current drought status as well as additional information about their individual household's water use.

Water managers for the City of Phoenix face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the Salt-Verde basin. From the many Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment, we selected a five-model ensemble, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Contrary to previous assessments, this is not caused primarily by changes in the P/E ratio, but is found to result mainly from decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. The results show clearly the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

<p> This dissertation is a study of two water management systems and their respective potential for adaptive change. It compares the principles of traditional common-pool resource communities with the policies and practices of contemporary acequias and the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. A review of the biophysical environment and relevant water laws and institutions provides a historical and environmental perspective on how the two distinct systems evolved into their current forms. The respective systems' capacities to continue to function in their basic forms in the face of climate change are evaluated through the conceptual lenses of resilience theory and the adaptive change cycle. The severe and extended drought that New Mexico is experiencing is causing a sharpened focus on how to limit water use. Shortage sharing is a traditional practice in common-pool resource cultures, as are other measures to manage a limited and vital resource, including monitoring, sanctions, exclusion of free-riders, equity of use, and reliance on democratic institutions to ensure collective decisions. These principles and practices are present to varying degrees in both systems and provide solid bases upon which to innovate and adapt to new conditions. The challenge will be to mobilize the will to change sufficiently to adapt while honoring the cultural values represented in each system; in other words, to build resilience into the systems. Opportunities to do so are explored and evaluated for their potential positive effects and possible downsides</p>

Climate change has been predicted to have long-term consequences for North American ecosystems. Amphibians in particular are considered indicators of ecosystem health because of their sensitivity to environmental change – due in part to their semi-permeable skin and aquatic developmental requirements. Amphibians have been experiencing population declines on a global scale, suggested in part to be due to changes in reproductive behaviour and timing. My thesis examines the abiotic correlates of timing of calling in southeastern Ontario anurans, as well as the extent to which the timing of calling events vary within and among species. I focused on eight species of frogs using both a 40-year historical dataset and a 5-year field-collected dataset of environmental variation and anuran activity. From analysis of the historical dataset, Lithobates pipiens was the only species out of eight to emerge significantly earlier, by an estimated 22 days over four decades. Both L. pipiens and Anaraxyus americanus have advanced initiation of calling over a four-decade span significantly earlier by an estimated 37.2 and 19.2 days, respectively, correlating with significant regional increases in spring air temperatures (2.8°C over four decades). Global frog declines or range shifts relate ultimately to changes in reproductive behaviour and timing mediated by shifting climate. From my analysis of the field-collected dataset, I concluded that species varied in the environmental predictors that best predicted this variation may be a consequence of varying reproductive strategies between early spring “explosive” breeders versus late prolonged breeders. There was also significant among-location variation in calling activity for four prolonged breeding species, which may be an effect of significant microclimatic variation between locations surveyed. My study suggests that local temperature increases have affected the timing of emergence and the onset of calling activity in some frogs and that microclimatic differences among breeding habitats may be influencing the timing of breeding in some prolonged breeding species. My research aids future conservation and management strategies for North America’s dwindling amphibian populations by quantifying how abiotic factors influence breeding behaviour on both a fine and extended temporal scale as well as by developing and testing standardized methods for long-term species monitoring. / Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2012-11-12 23:05:34.12

The freshwater ecosystems in the western Canadian Arctic are threatened by multiple and interacting stressors, as high-latitude regions are undergoing rapid change resulting from climate warming and other human-related activities. However, due to the paucity or absence of monitoring data, little is known about long-term changes in lake ecosystems. This thesis addresses this knowledge gap by using paleolimnological techniques to assess the responses of freshwater ecosystems in the Mackenzie Delta region to three major stressors predicted to become increasingly important, namely impacts from accelerated permafrost thaw, marine storm surges, and hydrocarbon exploration. Using a paired-lake design, six reference lakes were compared to six lakes impacted by retrogressive thaw slumps, an important form of thermokarst in this region. While all of the study lakes have undergone ecologically significant biological changes over the last ~200 years as a result of warming, lakes impacted by thaw slumps have changed more due to the cumulative effects of warming and heightened permafrost thaw. In addition to warming, the outer Mackenzie Delta is a low-lying landscape that is susceptible to inundation by marine storm surges from the Beaufort Sea. A large storm event in 1999 flooded >10,000 hectares of the outer delta. My paleolimnological data show that this marine intrusion resulted in diatom assemblage changes in flooded lakes on a landscape-scale that were unprecedented in the recent past, suggesting recent warming, and associated sea-ice decreases, are making this region more susceptible to storm-surge damage. Finally, lakes impacted by sumps used to dispose of the drilling by-products of hydrocarbon exploration exhibit distinct water chemistry, and are particularly elevated in potassium and chloride, which form a major component of some drilling fluids. Related to this, a discernible change in cladoceran assemblages coeval with the time of sump construction suggest that sump failure has resulted in biological changes in affected lakes. Collectively, this research shows that the ecosystems of the western Canadian Arctic are under threat from multiple stressors that have resulted in changes to the chemistry and biology of the freshwater resources of this region. / Thesis (Ph.D, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2013-04-17 09:30:14.671

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have been known to change the rate of productivity and physical characteristics of temperate lakes. This paleolimnologcial study examines the effect of recent climate change and watershed land-usage activities in nine lakes in the North Frontenac/Addington Highlands region of Ontario, and aims to predict future lake changes based on recent trends. Despite this region being identified as an area highly susceptible to the effects of climate change, no scientific studies have examined the effects of these changes on lakes of the region. Lake sediment analysis for chlorophyll-a concentration, and organic carbon and nitrogen deposition indicate that production has increased in the majority of study lakes in the approximate past century. Water column sampling for dissolved oxygen concentration, temperature, conductivity, and turbidity found the majority of lakes to be thermally stratified and hypoxic in the bottom waters during the ice-covered and ice-free seasons. Climate records also indicate mean annual air temperatures have been increasing since the early 20th century. It was concluded that climate change is increasing production in the lakes of the North Frontenac/Addington Highlands region, and that future increases may increase the zone of hypoxia within the study lakes, or cause anoxia in the lakes. Additionally, it was also found that individual watershed land-usage events (i.e. logging, road construction) affected some of the study lakes, and possibly amplified the increase in production found in some. These findings assist in developing future lake mitigation methods, and preventing future increases in productivity. / Thesis (Master, Geography) -- Queen's University, 2013-09-26 08:41:44.182

The effects of predicted future climate change was investigated with special emphasis on the association of organic contaminants with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Baltic Sea. An automated method was developed for the measurements of DOC - water distribution constants at realistic DOC concentrations in brackish water. The method proved to be valid for 30 organic contaminants with different structural elements in the 5 – 100 mg car bon/L DOC concentration range. There were limitations of this method. Firstly, its applicability is limited towards contaminants with lower affinity to DOC. Secondly, at higher (&gt;100 mg carbon/L) DOC concentrations the sorption of contaminants was underest imated. Afterwards, water samples were collected from 15 points within the Baltic Sea in a north - south gradient t o examine the spatial differences in DOC characteristics and sorption properties . The DOC samples were analyzed using proton nuclear magnetic resonance and ultraviolet spectroscopy. Results from both techniques indicated that the aromatic nature of the DOC pool increased towards the northern Baltic Sea. This was expected as the freshwater inflow has high significance in controlling the hydrograp hic conditions in the Bothnian Bay. Sorption of organic contaminants was subsequently measured in the same samples. The results showed decreased sorption from north to south for hydrophobic contaminants such as chlorinated benzenes but for contaminants lik e tributyl - phosphate no spatial tendencies were observed. The data generated was used to determine molecular descriptors of DOC using linear free energy relationships. The results indicated a higher significance of hy drogen bond donor/acceptor functional g roups of the DOC in the south. Changes in contaminant distribution were simulated in model pelagic ecosystems at possible endpoints predicted by future climate change scenarios. Separate and combined effects of temperature a nd DOC were studied in mesocosms. The results indicated interesting tendencies. Increased temperature resulted in increased losses in the amounts of organic contaminants. Increased DOC levels promoted sedimentation and sorption of contaminants to particulate matter and biota. Hi gher amounts of contaminants were retained. The combined effects of the two factors led to and overall decrease in dissolved amounts. Higher losses or increased sedimentation and sorption to particles were also observed depending on contaminant properties. / EcoChange

The emphasis for UK dwelling refurbishment to date has centred on reducing heating energy use. However, there has been increasing evidence pointing to the need for a more holistic approach. Many existing dwellings already experience overheating during hot weather periods. Climate change projections predict increases in both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events including heat waves such as the one in August 2003, which is estimated to have claimed the lives of over 35,000 people throughout Europe, including 2,000 in the UK. Demand for housing exceeds the supply of new stock and it is estimated that over 70% of the dwellings that will be in use in 2050 have already been built. Therefore existing dwellings will require adaptation to provide more comfortable and safe environments, to reduce both summertime overheating and heating energy use. In this research, dynamic thermal simulation computer modelling was used to assess and rank the effectiveness of selected single and combined passive interventions (adaptations) on dwelling overheating during a heat wave period. Simulations were also carried out to assess the effect of those interventions on annual space heating energy use. Four distinct dwelling types were selected to represent the housing stock in London and South East England, producing seven modelling variants: 19th century end and mid-terraced houses; 1930s semi-detached house; 1960s ground, mid and top floor flats and a modern detached house. Simulations were carried out for two different occupancy profiles and four building orientations and the cost of interventions was also considered in the analysis. The first occupancy profile assumed a ‘typical’ family who left the dwellings unoccupied during the daytime, the second assumed residents who were at home all the time (e.g. elderly or infirm). Of the dwelling types studied the 1960s mid and top floor flats and the modern (2006) detached house (Tier 2) experienced more than twice as much overheating as the other dwelling types (Tier 1). Tier 2 dwellings were “harder to treat” and unlike Tier 1 dwellings their overheating exposure could not be eliminated using the selected passive interventions. It was possible to substantially reduce overheating and annual heating energy use of Tier 1 dwellings at moderate cost, whereas the costs for retrofitting Tier 2 dwellings were estimated to be many times higher. The results demonstrated that overheating exposure can be significantly greater for residents who have to stay at home during the daytime and they should not, where possible, be housed in the most vulnerable dwellings. External window shutters were found to be the single most effective intervention for overheating reduction in most of the dwelling types considered, typically resulting in a 50% reduction in overheating exposure. The exception was the 19th century terraced houses, where applying a solar reflective (high albedo) coating to the solid external walls was often more effective. In some cases the addition of insulation increased overheating and external wall insulation consistently outperformed internal wall insulation when considering the effect on overheating, though the latter could be effective as an element of combined interventions. Adaptation should therefore be considered together with mitigation, both in design practice and in regulations. If existing dwellings (for example the 19th century terraced houses) are retrofitted for energy efficiency, without considering summer use, overheating could increase dramatically. Subsequent corrective measures could be costly and energy efficiency may suffer as a result. This research builds on previous publications and research to generate systematic, quantitative and holistic guidance for retrofitting UK dwellings to reduce overheating risk during heat waves, whilst minimising annual space heating energy use and considering the cost of retrofit. An interactive retrofit advice toolkit has been developed (and made publicly available) as part of the research, which allows selection of the best performing interventions within a given budget. Recommendations for further development of the research are also suggested.

Climate change and fisheries have affected marine environments worldwide leading to impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning. However there is clear evidence of spatial variability in the response of these impacts both within and among marine ecosystems. Although several studies have tried to explain the effect of these impacts on marine food webs, it is unclear how they interact, and how they may affect marine ecosystems remains an important unanswered question. This suggests the urgent need for multiple-trophic level and ecosystem-based management approaches to account for both fisheries and climate change impacts at ocean basins across the globe. Marine apex predators, such as seabirds, are vulnerable to the effects of both climate and fishing impacts, and can be used as reliable and sensitive bio-indicators of the status of the marine ecosystem. The Celtic Sea ecosystem is a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. It is characterized by high fish and invertebrate biodiversity. In addition, internationally important numbers of seabirds, such as Northern gannet Morus bassanus (L.), Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus (B.), Common guillemot Uria aalge (P.) and Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla (L.), breed along the Celtic Sea coasts. In recent years, fisheries from across Europe have intensively exploited the Celtic Sea, leading to changes in stock structure. Moreover, the increase in annual average Sea Surface Temperature by 0.67 oC over the past two decades has altered the composition of plankton communities. These impacts, independently and in tandem, are likely to have had dramatic effects upon the Celtic Sea food web emphasizing the need to enhance our understanding of this important marine ecosystem. In this thesis the effects of climate change and fisheries on the Celtic Sea pelagic food web are evaluated, in particular focussing on the response of seabird populations. This is in part because of recent declines in the breeding success of many seabird colonies in the northeast Atlantic, particularly around the North Sea. Long-term data across four trophic levels (phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds) and different modelling approaches are used to determine factors influencing seabird productivity at different geographical scales. First, I review the direct and indirect effects of climate change and fisheries upon marine ecosystems, as well as their impacts upon marine birds. Second, I use data collected during 1986-2007 from a single seabird colony, across four trophic levels, to investigate long-term direct and indirect climate effects. The results suggest only a weak climate signal in the Celtic Sea, and this is only evident between mid-trophic level fish and certain species of seabird. Third, a similar multi-trophic level approach across three nearby regions in the southwest UK (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, and English Channel) reveal no evidence of a bottom-up signal during the period 1991-2007. These findings are in contrast with the nearby North Sea region, where a strong bottom-up effect was found to affect seabird populations, highlighting the importance of regional-based studies across multiple trophic levels. Finally, to provide a more complete picture of the Celtic Sea, and how it might respond to changes in fisheries management and climatic variation, I use the complex tropho-dynamic ecosystem model Ecopath with Ecosim. The main focus is on how seabird biomass changes in response to the application of different fisheries regimes likely to be implemented under forthcoming reforms to the Common Fisheries Policy (e.g. the application of quotas and discard bans), as well as future climate change scenarios, in order to provide guideline support for resource management and seabird conservation in the Celtic Sea. The results suggest that some seabird guilds (gulls and some other scavengers) may be negatively affected by a reduction in discards, while other species (offshore divers) will benefit from a decrease in the fishing of pelagic fish species. Climate change is likely to have a negative impact across all trophic levels with a strong negative impact upon seabird populations. Therefore seabirds are likely to show species-specific responses to both climate variation (bottom-up effect) and changes in fishing practices, in particular our findings suggest that for some species climate may outweigh the fisheries impacts even when fisheries pressure is reduced by 50%. In summary, this study suggests that despite the generally negative impact of climate described for some regions in the Northeast Atlantic, the Celtic Sea ecosystem seems to be more resilient. However, both climate and fisheries and the interactions between these factors should be taken into account in the formulation of future management plans for the Celtic Sea ecosystem. The use of multiple-trophic level and ecosystem-based approaches over multiple spatial and temporal scales has helped to elucidate possible trophic mechanisms that are the response to future fishing and climate impacts in the Celtic Sea. The results of this study could have implications for both management plans and conservation policy.

Future changes to the pH and temperature of the oceans are predicted to impact the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, particularly those animals that rely on the process of calcification. The marine intertidal gastropod Littorina littorea can be used as a model of intertidal organism for investigating the effects of ocean acidification and high temperature, alone and in combination because its ability to be quickly adapt against environmental stressor. In the first study a single species population of L. littorea was used to test for physiological and biochemical effects underpinning organismal responses to climate change and ocean acidification. Compared with control conditions, snails decreased metabolic rates by 31% in response to elevated pCO2 while by 15% in response to combined pCO2 and temperature. Decreased metabolic rates were associated with metabolic depression, a strategy to match oxygen demand and availability, and an increase in end-product metabolites in the tissue under acidified treatments, indicating an increased reliance on anaerobic metabolism. This study also showed that anthropogenic alteration of CO2 and temperature may also lead to plastic responses, a fundamental mechanism of many marine gastropods to cope environmental variability. At low pH and elevated temperature in isolation or combined showing lower shell growth than individuals kept under control conditions. Percentage change in shell length and thicknesses was also lower under acidified and temperature in isolation or combined than control condition, making shells were more globular and desiccation rates were higher. Further studies to broader latitudinal ranges for six populations of L. littorea showed that shell growth decreased in all six populations under elevated pCO2 compared to control snails particularly those at range edges. Elevated pCO2 also affected to the reduction of shell length and width that causing shell aspect ratio to increase across latitudinal gradients except individuals from Millport, UK. Percentage changes of aperture width and aperture area were also decrease under elevated pCO2 with greater reduction of aperture area were found at populations in the mid-ranges which is assumed this response might be linked to local adaptation of the individual to microclimatic conditions. This study also showed that metabolic rates were negatively affected by high pCO2 and show non-linear trend across latitudinal gradients in compared to individual kept under normal pCO2 conditions. Metabolomic analysis showed that two northern populations of Trondheim and TromsØ were distinct from other populations when exposed to low temperature (15 °C) with elevated pCO2 due to, in part, high concentrations of thymine, uracil, valine and lysine. A similar separation also occurred under medium (25 °C) and high (35 °C) temperature exposure in which one of northern population (Trondheim) was distinct from other populations and had lower concentrations of alanine, betaine and taurine while higher of valine. These results suggest that populations at northern latitudes may apply different ionic transport mechanisms under elevated pCO2 and elevated temperatures and those populations are likely to vary in terms of their physiological responses to this environmental challenge.