Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on subarctic ecosystems. Increased temperatures as well as altered precipitation and snow cover patterns are predicted to change species distribution and affect biogeochemical processes in the subarctic tundra. Bryophytes are an essential vegetational component in northern ecosystems, due to their high abundance and importance in many ecological processes. In this study the effects of elevation and altered snow cover on the temporal dynamics of freezing damage in three subarctic bryophyte species (Hylocomium splendens, Ptilidium ciliare, and Sphagnum fuscum) were studied in a snow manipulation field experiment in Abisko, during early spring. Soil temperature and field moisture of moss shoots were collected. A freeze-thaw incubation experiment was conducted to investigate the freeze-thaw cycle resistance of H. splendens and P. ciliare originating from habitats with two differing snow-cover thicknesses. Freezing damage differed significantly between the bryophytes species with P. ciliare experiencing the least and S. fuscum the highest damage. Damage was higher at the low elevation, possibly attributable to acclimation effects. Snow removal led to higher damage in moss shoots, but no interactions of the different snow cover treatments with elevation, species or time were found. Freezing damage increased over time and no recovery occurred, likely due to temporal patterns in soil freeze-thaw cycles during early spring. Soil freeze-thaw cycles were the main factor influencing damage in bryophytes after snow melt. Measured environmental parameters could not explain the entire variation in damage. Damage might additionally be attributable to increased UV radiation or disturbances by herbivores.

This study uses the case of the Maipo Valley in Chile to examine how climate change will affect viticultural suitability. Using a geographic information system analysis of topographic, soil, land use, and climate data, a baseline assessment of viticultural suitability in the Maipo Valley was performed. The impact of climate change on viticultural suitability was modeled by overlaying downscaled global circulation model temperature data for two emission scenarios. The findings of this study suggest that the capacity of vineyard managers in the Maipo Valley to cultivate high-quality traditional grape varietals from cooler grape maturity classes might be limited in the future.

In the face of stagnation in efforts to tackle the global increase of greenhouse gas emissions, there is a great need to broaden our understanding of normative processes that maintain and change social norms in relation to environmentally (un)sustainable lifestyles. My research aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the normative processes associated with climate change. More specifically I focused on identifying the interpersonal costs and wider benefits (in terms of social change) associated with the interpersonal confrontation of environmental disregard. Firstly, to establish a meaningful point of comparison for subsequent studies, I compared the normative status of environmental disregard and racial prejudice (Studies 1 & 2). I then moved on to examining perceptions and consequences of interpersonal confrontation of environmental disregard over the course of six studies by placing participants in the position of an observer of an interaction in which the confrontation occurred. The results consistently identified high social costs (reduced feelings of closeness and warmth) associated with confronting environmental disregard (but not racism). The costs of confronting environmental disregard were partly determined by the morality of the issue, the appropriateness of the confrontation, the pre-existing attitude of the observer and the justification used by the confronter for their reaction. My studies also tested different strategies to reduce the social costs for the confronter (such as invoking morality in different ways) and also assessed the consequences of confrontation for changes in perceptions of social norms, climate change attitudes and behavioural tendencies amongst those bearing witness. In relation to the consequences for behavioural tendencies resulting from interpersonal confrontation, the findings suggest that confrontation of environmental disregard encourages pro-environmental action tendencies if a scientific justification for the confrontation is provided. The final chapter of the thesis explores the theoretical and practical implications of these findings in relation to engendering processes of social change.

Anthropogenic climate change is arguably the greatest challenge of modern times posing significant risks to natural resources and the environment. Socio-economic change, severe droughts, and environmental concerns focus attention upon sustainability of water supplies and the ability of water utilities to meet competing demands worldwide. The 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment identified water security as one of the most significant climate threats facing the UK. It is now recognised that household water demand management could offer a low regret adaptation measure (both financially and environmentally) given large uncertainties about future climate and non-climatic pressures. This thesis uses Anglian Water Services (AWS) Golden 100 dataset to explore the climate sensitivity of historic micro-component water-use. This work contributes to a larger integrated assessment of the South-East England water system under the EPSRC Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate Coordination Network (ARCC CN). The Golden 100 is a metered record of 100 households daily water consumption by basin, bath, dishwasher, external, kitchen sink, shower, WC and washing machine use. The archive also includes socio-economic information for each household, dates of the year and daily time series of observed minimum temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine hours, soil moisture deficit, concurrent, and antecedent rainfall amounts. The methodology developed within this research provides a portable approach to error trapping, formatting and mining large, complex water sector datasets, for exploring the relative sensitivities of micro-component metered water-use to weather/non-weather variables. This research recognises both the importance of the choice to use a micro-component and the volume used. As such, logistic and linear generalised regression techniques are employed to explore the relative sensitivity of these two aspects of water-use to climatic and non-climatic variables. The 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) projections and climate analogues are then used to bound a climate sensitivity analysis of the most weather-sensitive micro-components using temperature and rainfall scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. This research provides empirical evidence that the most weather sensitive micro-components are external and shower water-use. A key contribution of this research to existing knowledge is the non-linear response of likelihood and volume of external water-use to average air temperatures. There is an abrupt increase in the likelihood of external water-use on days above ~15??C. Climate sensitivity analysis further suggests that by the 2080s, under a hotter/drier climate, average unmetered households could be 8% more likely to use external-water and expend ~9 litres more per day during the summer. For the same parameters, high water users (defined here as the 90th percentile) could consume ~13 litres more external water per day. Importantly, this research has re-affirmed the relative importance of behavioural drivers of water-use as manifested by pronounced day of week and bank holiday signatures in both the likelihood and volume of use statistics. As such, this prompts future studies and water management efforts to consider the impact of behavioural drivers as well as climate. It must be recognised that the small sample size of the Golden 100 combined with the Hawthorn effect, self-selection and sample biases in factors such as socio-economic status, billing method and occupancy rate all limit the sample representativeness of the wider population. As such, any predictions based on the data must be treated as illustrative rather than definitive. Furthermore, the results are probably specific to the demographic and socio-economic groups comprising the sample. Nonetheless, this research sheds new light into water-use within the home thereby adding value to a dataset that was not originally collected with household-level, weather-related research in mind.

Half of Earth's land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decisionmaking processes work in specific contexts.

Mountains are vital to ecosystems and human society given their influence on global carbon and water cycles. Yet the extent to which topography regulates montane forest carbon uptake and storage remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we compared forest aboveground carbon loading to topographic metrics describing energy balance and water availability across three headwater catchments of the Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, USA. The catchments range from 1800 to 3500 m above mean sea level with 46-102 cm/yr mean annual precipitation and -1.2 degrees to 12.3 degrees C mean annual temperature. In all three catchments, we found mean forest carbon loading consistently increased from ridges (27 +/- 19 Mg C ha) to valley bottoms (60 +/- 28 Mg C ha). Low topographic positions held up to 185 +/- 76 Mg C ha, more than twice the peak value of upper positions. Toe slopes fostered disproportionately high net carbon uptake relative to other topographic positions. Carbon storage was on average 20-40 Mg C ha greater on north to northeast aspects than on south to southwest aspects, a pattern most pronounced in the highest elevation, coldest and wettest catchment. Both the peak and mean aboveground carbon storage of the three catchments, crossing an 11 degrees C range in temperature and doubling of local precipitation, defied the expectation of an optimal elevation-gradient climatic zone for net primary production. These results have important implications for models of forest sensitivity to climate change, as well as to predicted estimates of continental carbon reservoirs.

The overarching theme of my thesis is understanding observed variations of northern hemisphere atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations. I focus my analysis on high-latitude observations of these gases, as there are large stores of carbon in boreal vegetation and tundra which are vulnerable to rapid warming in the Arctic. My thesis is split into two parts. First, I use the wavelet transform to spectrally decompose observed multi-decadal timeseries for CO2 and CH4. I perform a series of numerical experiments based on synthetic data in order to characterise the errors associated with the analysis. For CO2, I analyse the phase and amplitude of the detrended seasonal cycle of CO2 to infer changes about carbon uptake by northern vegetation. I do not find a long-term change in the length of the carbon uptake period despite significant changes in the spring and autumn phase. I do find an increase in the rate of peak uptake which coincides with the observed increase in seasonal amplitude. These results suggest that the carbon uptake period of boreal vegetation has become more intense but has not changed in length, which provides evidence for an increase in net uptake of CO2 in the high latitudes. For CH4, I test the hypothesis that an increase in Arctic wetland emissions could result in a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of CH4 in the high latitudes. This hypothesis is based on the fact that the seasonal minima of CH4 roughly coincides with the peak of high latitude wetland CH4 emissions. I find that the CH4 seasonal amplitude has significantly decreased at a number of high-latitude sites. However I also find that atmospheric transport appears to drive much of the variability in high-latitude CH4 and that transport could also be responsible for the observed changes in amplitude. I show that an increase in wetland emissions is likely to have a more pronounced effect on the high-latitude CH4 seasonal cycle in the future. In the second section of my thesis, I describe a series of experiments in collaboration with the UK Astronomy Technology Centre, in which I characterise a new instrument technology for satellite applications to observe changes in CO2 from low-Earth orbit. The proof of concepts experiments were performed with a bench top hyperspectral imager. I show that the instrument is able to capture clean spectra at the wavelengths required for CO2 with low levels of scattered light between spectra.

The North-South divide is one of the central political characteristics of the UN climate change negotiations. But while the Group of 77 coalition has been the main negotiating group for the South, developing countries have often faced challenges to their unity, magnified by the recent establishment of smaller negotiating groups. How has 'the South' hung together? This thesis investigates how developing countries have formed negotiating groups over the two decades of the UN climate negotiating process. It explains the origins of the different negotiating groups that have formed over this time, as well as the timing of their emergence and the scope of their membership. In particular, while scholarly attention has focused on the G77, Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and most recently the Brazil-South Africa- India-China (BASIC) coalition, this thesis corrects the relative neglect in understanding the many other negotiating groups that have formed. While conventional explanations highlights the shared material interests that underpin group formation, this thesis advances a constructivist argument that emphasises instead the importance of collective identities in shaping norms of 'appropriate association' – the social bases of whose one's friends and allies are. It highlights the regional basis for many of these negotiating groups that cut across shared material circumstances, and draws upon historical institutionalist insights on critical junctures and path dependence to place this larger pattern of Southern coalition formation in the appropriate historical and institutional context of the UN system. It demonstrates the continuing persistence of countries identifying as the 'South', where despite changing material circumstances and disagreements among developing countries, the salience of the G77 as the constitutive institution of this identity remains. Above all, in investigating the processes of coalition formation among developing countries in the climate context, this thesis deepens scholarly understanding about the contemporary meaning of the 'South'.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090-2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [-3%, -34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [-15%, -65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to -74% [+4%, -100%] by 2290-2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.

This thesis examines the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on energy security. Specifically, by incorporating emergent international legal obligations and regulations governing climate change, this thesis proposes a definitional and policy framework for energy security that can assist in making Nigeria’s energy supply more secure. This, in turn, can serve to improve Nigeria’s capacity to meet current and future climate change obligations. While the principal objective of this thesis is to explore how global climate change risk regulation provides opportunities for the state to improve energy security in Nigeria, this thesis emphasizes that Nigerian law should aim to create a balance between the dual objectives of energy security and climate change responses. Using the theory of legal transplantation, further insights for integrating climate and energy security goals to develop the definitional and policy framework of energy security in Nigeria are gained through an examination of bold initiatives taken by Germany. / October 2016