L'objet de cette thèse est de déterminer les effets de la diffusion des innovations technologiques sur l'emploi pour le cas d'un pays en développement (en l'occurence la Tunisie). Les approches empiriques adoptées montrent, tout d'abord, qu'à court terme, les effets sur l'emploi des innovations technologiques importées et des brevets sont positifs alors qu'ils sont a priori négatifs à moyen et à long terme. À moins que ce résultat soit spécifique à l'échantillon de référence dans ce travail et à la période étudiée, le contexte tunisien semble contredire les prédictions théoriques. Un tel résultat pourrait affirmer le fait que l'économie tunisienne demeure fondamentalement consommatrice et encore très peu productrice des innovations technologiques. Ceci interpelle la capacité d'absorption du tissu industriel tunisien et l'efficacité du processus d'apprentissage. Quant à l'effet positif à court terme, il s'explique, notamment, par la complémentarité entre le capital et le travail. Ensuite, nous nous sommes intéressés aux effets de la diffusion technologique sur la demande de l'emploi par qualification. L'étude économétrique montre l'existence d'un biais technologique, qui favorise la demande des cadres - supposés la main-d'oeuvre la plus qualifiée - par les industries. À cet effet s'ajoute un second effet favorable à la main-d'oeuvre qualifiée : cette dernière est plus fortement complémentaire au capital que les ouvriers, qui sont supposés la main-d'oeuvre non qualifiée. Des effets semblables ont, en même temps, été constatés entre les flux d'emplois (créations, destructions) et les différents canaux de la diffusion technologique. Enfin, nous avons tenté d'évaluer le rôle effectif de la diffusion des innovations technologiques, à côté de la structure industrielle locale (diversité, spécialisation, concurrence), dans le développement régional des emplois. L'étude économétrique montre qu'un environnement compétitif (externalités de type Porter) et une diversité des activités industrielles (externalités de type Jacobs) sont favorables au développement local. Les résultats montrent également que les innovations technologiques semblent avoir un effet global positif sur l'emploi régional. / The purpose of this thesis is ti determining the effects of technological innovations diffusion on employment in Tunisia. First, the empirical approaches adopted show that, in the short run, the effects on employment are positive, but they are negative in medium and long runs. If this result is not specific to the reference sample used in this research and to investigated period, the Tunisian context seems to contradict the theoretical predictions. This result could affirm the fact that Tunisian economy remains a passive consumer and a small producer of technological innovations. This investigates the absorptive capacity of the Tunisian industry and the efficiency of learning process. The short-run positive effect, on the other hand, is explained by the complementary of capital and labor. Then, we are interested to the effect of technological innovations diffusion on industry's labour demand by skill. The econometric research suggests the existence of skill-biased technical change that favour the industries demand of managers. These later are supposed the most skilled-labour. In addition to this effect, they complement the capital rather the manual workers, who are supposed unskilled-labour. We show also a strong correlation between the job flows (creations, destructions) and the different channels of technological diffusion. Finally, we attempted to evaluate the effective role of technological innovation diffusion in addition to local industrial structure (diversity, specialization and competition) in the regional development of employment. The econometric research shows that competitive environment (Porter externalities) are the diversity of industrial activities (Jacobs's externalities) are favorable to local development. The result also prove that technological innovation may be having a positive global effect on regional employment.

nÃo hà / Este trabalho de pesquisa tem como principal objetivo propor um modelo economÃtrico com dados em painel, validado por anÃlise empÃrica, para identificar os impactos nos resultados da empresa apÃs a implementaÃÃo de um amplo programa de remuneraÃÃo variÃvel. Adicionalmente, pretende-se identificar se os diferentes perfis sÃcio-econÃmicos dos empregados podem trazer resultados diferentes com a implantaÃÃo do programa. A anÃlise à baseada em uma mudanÃa na estrutura salarial de toda a equipe de vendas ocorrida na empresa em 2005. Esse âexperimento naturalâ foi fundamental para a anÃlise economÃtrica, com variÃveis macroeconÃmicas, microeconÃmicas, sÃcio-econÃmicas e a introduÃÃo da remuneraÃÃo variÃvel. Ao final do estudo empÃrico, baseando se em pesquisa realizada em autores como Ehrenberg (2000), Robert Milgrom (1992), Misra (2005), Coughlan (1989), Lazear (2000), Basu (1985) e na J. Macedo S/A, o objetivo principal foi atendido, ou seja, foi demonstrado que a implementaÃÃo do novo modelo de remuneraÃÃo variÃvel trouxe um resultado bastante positivo sobre o volume vendido na empresa. A estimaÃÃo do coeficiente da variÃvel dummy representativa da implementaÃÃo do programa constatou, com alto grau de significÃncia estatÃstica, um aumento mensal de 32,8 toneladas na mÃdia da quantidade vendida por vendedor. / This research work has as main objective to propose an econometrical model with panel data, validated by empirical analysis, to identify the impacts in the results of the company, after the implementation of an ample salesforce compensation program. Additionally, is intended to identify if the different social-economic profiles of the employees can bring different results with the implantation of the program. The analysis is based on a change in the wage structure of the salesforce occurred in the company in 2005. This "natural experiment" was basic for the econometrical analysis, with macroeconomic, microeconomic and social-economic variables and the introduction of the program. To the end of the empirical study, being based on research carried through in authors as Ehrenberg (2000), Robert Milgrom (1992), Misra (2005), Coughlan (1989), Lazear (2000), Basu (1985) and in the J. Macedo S/A, the main objective was achieved, in other words, it was demonstrated that the implementation of the new compensation model brought a strong positive result on the volume sold. The estimation of the coefficient of the dummy variable, representative of the implementation of the program, evidenced, with high statistic significance degree, a monthly increase of 32.8 tons in the average of the amount sold for salesman.

Esta dissertaÃÃo analisa o efeito da abertura comercial, a partir da dÃcada de noventa, sobre a taxa de inflaÃÃo no Brasil. De acordo com a literatura teÃrica e empÃrica sobre esta relaÃÃo, quanto maior a abertura comercial, menor o impacto de polÃticas monetÃrias discricionÃrias sobre a taxa de inflaÃÃo. Neste sentido, utilizando informaÃÃes dos Estados brasileiros, referente ao perÃodo entre 1990 e 2003, estimam-se dois modelos economÃtricos com dados em painel com o objetivo de verificar se a correlaÃÃo entre a taxa de inflaÃÃo e abertura econÃmica à negativa. De acordo com Romer (1993), em economias com estabilidade e Banco Central independente esta correlaÃÃo deveria ser fraca ou nÃo significante. Para o caso brasileiro à de se esperar que esta relaÃÃo nÃo se mantenha em funÃÃo do Plano Real, a partir de 1994, por haver estabilizado a economia brasileira e dado maior autonomia ao Banco Central na conduÃÃo da polÃtica monetÃria. Simultaneamente, no inÃcio da dÃcada de noventa, a economia intensificou o processo da abertura econÃmica. De fato, os resultados obtidos a partir da estimaÃÃo dos modelos mostraram que o impacto da abertura sobre a taxa de inflaÃÃo nÃo foi significante e que os fatores determinantes para o seu declÃnio foram os efeitos do Plano Real juntamente com a maior autonomia do Banco Central. / This dissertacion analyzes the effect of the commercial opening, from the decade of ninety, on the tax of inflation in Brazil. In accordance with theoretical and empirical on this relation, how much bigger literature the commercial, lesser opening the impact of discretional monetary politics on the inflation tax. In this direction, using information of the Brazilian States, referring to the period between 1990 and 2003, esteem two econometrical models with data in panel with the objective to verify if the correlation enters the inflation tax and economic opening is negative. In accordance with Romer (1993), in economies with stability and independent Central banking this correlation would have to be weak or not significant. For the Brazilian case it is of if waiting that this relation if does not keep in function of the Real Plan, from 1994, for having stabilized the Brazilian economy and data bigger autonomy to the Central banking in the conduction of the monetary politics. Simultaneously, at the beginning of the decade of ninety, the economy intensified the process of the economic opening. In fact, the results gotten from the esteem of the models had shown that the impact of the opening on the inflation tax was not significant and that the determinative factors for its decline had been the effect of the Real Plan together with the biggest autonomy of the Central banking.

This thesis explores the impact of sectoral competition on inflation in Turkey. To this end, panel data analyses investigating the determinants of deviation of sectoral price inflation from the consumer price inflation, and the resulting effect of the changes in the level of sectoral competition on this deviation measure are conducted in both static and dynamic frameworks. The empirical analyses covers the 1995-2001 period and 62 manufacturing sectors classified according to International Standard of Industrial Classification (ISIC) Rev. 2 at 4-digit level. The findings of the empirical analyses are particularly important for the assessment of the theoretical foundations and empirical basis of the recent proposals favoring enhancement of competition with disinflationary motives. The static analyses suggest that sectoral concentration is insignificant in explaining deviations of sectoral inflation from consumer inflation, while dynamic analyses suggest enhancing competition may lead to higher levels of sectoral inflation. The interpretation of the results indicates that enhancing competition may not be a viable tool for disinflationary purposes in Turkey.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Esta dissertaÃÃo estuda a relaÃÃo entre crescimento econÃmico e desigualdade de renda nos 26 estados brasileiros, durante o perÃodo de 1985 a 2002. O mÃtodo utilizado foi o de dados em painel, devido Ãs suas vantagens, como a possibilidade de lidar com a heterogeneidade em micro-unidades, fornecendo maior variabilidade ao combinar a variaÃÃo nas micro-unidades com a variaÃÃo no tempo, aliviando os problemas de multicolinearidade e permitir uma melhor anÃlise de ajustamento dinÃmico. A formulaÃÃo utilizada foi a proposta pelos trabalhos de FORBES (2000), BANERJEE e DUFFLO (2003) e PANIZZA (2002), utilizando dados do IPEA para crescimento econÃmico, desigualdade de renda, anos de estudo e investimento pÃblico. AtravÃs de regressÃes que utilizaram o mÃtodo Arellano-Bond de 2 estÃgios, que corrige nÃo apenas o viÃs introduzido pela variÃvel endÃgena defasada, como tambÃm permite certo grau de endogeneidade nos outros regressores, foi constatado que a desigualdade afeta negativamente o crescimento, significando que quanto maior a desigualdade inicial, menor a taxa de crescimento do perÃodo. Outros resultados importantes encontrados sÃo a relaÃÃo positiva e extremamente robusta entre educaÃÃo e os nÃveis de crescimento econÃmico e a relaÃÃo negativa do investimento pÃblico e renda com o crescimento. / This dissertation studies the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in the 26 Brazilian states, during the 1985 to 2002 period. The method utilized here was panel data, due to its many advantages, like the possibility of dealing with heterogeneity in micro-units, providing greater variability in micro-units in relation to time, minimizing multicolinearity problems and allowing better analysis of dynamic adjustment. The formulation follows the ones proposed by such works as FORBES (2000), BANERJEE and DUFFLO (2003) and PANIZZA (2002), using data from IPEA for economic growth, income inequality, years of schooling and public investiment. Through regressions that utilized the Arellano-Bond 2-step algorithm, which corrects not only the bias originated from the introduced lagged variable, but also allows a certain degree of endogeneity, it has been observed that inequality affects growth negatively, i.e., the greater the initial income inequality, the lesser the economic growth rate of the corresponding period. Other important results were the positive and robust relationship between schooling and growth and the negative relationship between income and investment with economic growth.

Author: Pavel Ryska Doctoral thesis: The Empirics of Deflation and Economic Growth Abstract This doctoral thesis deals with the relationship between deflation and economic growth. Existing empirical research has focused on the simple link between price growth and GDP growth or introduced narrower price measures as control variables. The goal of the present work is to account for shifts in both demand and supply, so that the effect of price inflation on growth as such could be separated from effects of changes in certain elements of nominal demand and supply. The work takes two general approaches. First, I use a large macroeconomic panel data set of 20 countries over approximately 140 years to explore long-run and short-run effects of inflation on output growth, after controlling for money supply growth as a demand shifter and oil price growth as a proxy for shifts in supply. In doing so, I use a range of methods such as the vector error-correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model and the fixed effects panel model. Second, I propose a new approach that uses disaggregated sector data from national accounts on output, prices and other variables to explore the link between quantity produced and sector inflation rates. The advantage of the data set is that it is rich in modern-day observations of...

Under socialism workers had their wages set by the central planners.. In my thesis I use panel data from SHARLIFE questionnaire in order to analyze how returns to East German human capital variables changed after the reunification in 1990.I also compare these returns to West German returns to human capital variables. Before 1990 the returns to experience and education were lower in East Germany than in West Germany. After the reunification East German returns to experience obtained before 1990 and to education decreased. I find a significant decrease of returns to high educated workers who spent in the East German educational system 15 and more years. East German returns to both human capital variables are smaller than West German ones before the reunification and the difference is more pronounced after the reunification.

The constant increase in public sector spending in the advanced economies, increases pressure on the revenue side of public budgets. The primary sources of public budgets are taxes. This raises a question of what type of tax instrument to choose in respect to meet the high efficiency in sourcing public budgets restriction and at the same time, to minimize the negative impact on the private sector and households. As generally effective tax is considered a consumption tax. But what is the real effect of this tax in the short run and long run? The aim of this thesis is to analyze the influence of value -- added tax (VAT) on household expendictures in the short and long run. At first I provide empirical test of the short-term effect of VAT on household spending using quarter panel data for Visegrad fore countries, as I am focused mostly on the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Then construct a broader set of data for 14 EU countries, in purpose to test the long-term effect. For testing, I use several estimation techniques for panel data, taking into account the dynamic nature of these data sets.

Problematika výběru kapitálové struktury byla a stále je často diskutována akademickou obcí již přes půl století a stále ještě nebylo dosaženo jednoznačného souladu, která teorie kapitálu a jaké determinanty ovlivňují kapitálovou strukturu. Modligliani a Miller (1958) zformulovali moderní teorii kapitálové struktury. Tvrdí, že pokud jsou splněny přísné podmínky, kapitálová struktura je irelevantní pro hodnotu společnosti. Avšak pokud nějaké předpoklady nejsou naplněny, kapitálová struktura se stává významná. Nyní, dvě hlavní teorie kapitálové struktury převládají – teorie hierarchického pořádku a trade-off teorie. Teorie hierarchického pořádku je vysvětlena informační asymetrií mezi manažery a ostatními lidmi. Toto způsobuje rozdílné ocenění vydaných cenných papírů danými skupinami lidí. Proto společnosti preferují vydat cenné papíry nejméně citlivé na dostupné informace. Pokud potřebují volné finance, nejdříve použijí vnitřní zdroje, následně dluh a jako poslední možností je vydání nového vlastního kapitálu. Trade-off teorie řeší rovnováhu mezi daňovým štítem dluhu a náklady finanční tísně. Důsledkem tohoto substitučního vztahu je optimální kapitálová struktura, kterou by se společnosti měly snažit získat a dále udržet. Mnoho výzkumu týkající se výběru kapitálové struktury již bylo provedeno a jeho výsledky jsou stále neurčité. Protože mnoho článků stále nabízí bezvýsledné závěry a jejich výsledky se liší v rámci zemí a skrz časové období, cílem mé práce je prozkoumat kapitálovou strukturu a determinanty kapitálové struktury v rámci Višegrádských zemí v období od 2002 do 2007. Hlavním přínosem této práce je prozkoumat data, která ještě nebyla před tím prozkoumána. Důvod, proč tomu tak je, může být obtížnost v získávání a zpracování dat. Již mnoho článků bylo napsáno o kapitálové struktuře, ale mnohé měly nedostatky. První výhodou mé práce je, že zkontroluji veškeré předpoklady mé analýzy. Znázorňuji, že heteroskedasticita a autokorelace jsou občas přítomny a snažím se je odstranit. Tímto se vyhnu zkresleným výsledkům. Další výhodou mého výzkumu je, že používám relativně velké množství vysvětlujících proměnných. Mnozí autoři záměrně vynechávají proměnné jako likvidita, růstové příležitosti nebo volatilitu tržeb (obchodní risk). Navíc používám tři druhy dluhů jako vysvětlované proměnné – celkový, dlouhodobý a krátkodobý, které nejsou také běžně používané. Dále používám dynamický vztah v zadluženosti, jelikož současná zadluženost může záviset na minulosti z důvodu setrvání nebo pouze částečnému přizpůsobení. Schopnost tohoto docílit je unikátní pro panelová data, která používám v této práci. Výsledkem je, že zadluženost má paměť a závisí na zadluženosti z minulých let. Hlavní závěry mohou být rozděleny do dvou skupin. Do první skupiny patří výsledky regrese z České republiky a Polska a druhé z Maďarska a Slovenska. Výsledky z první skupiny ukazují pozitivní vztah mezi zadlužeností českých a maďarských společností a tempem růstu společností a nedaňovým štítem, který je použit jako náhrada za daňový štít. Zatímco ziskovost, likvidita, struktura aktiv, obchodní riziko a velikost firmy je negativně korelována s dluhem. Tyto závěry podporují teorii hierarchického pořádku. Na druhou stranu, výsledky z Maďarska a Slovenska podporují trade-off teorii. V této druhé skupině struktura aktiv, ziskovost, velikost firmy je kladně korelována se zadlužeností, zatímco zbylé proměnné ukazují zápornou korelaci.

Analysis of the impact of ageing on health care spending in selected countries of the Commonwealth Abstract This thesis examines and analyses development of population ageing in Australia, Canada and New Zealand and especially its impact on the spending in the sector of health care. It includes comparison of demographic trends and description of health care systems in selected countries. The analysis is then processed by an econometric model focused on the impact of population ageing on government spending and spending of the private sector on health care through life expectancy at birth, ratio of population aged 65 years and above and other indicators. The modelling is carried out using linear regression, vector autoregression and fixed effects model in panel data. The results show that population ageing indeed affects through different intensity both government and private sector spending on health care in Australia, Canada and New Zealand.