The Capacitance Resistance Model (CRM) is a reservoir model based on a data-driven approach. It stems from the continuity equation and takes advantage of the usually abundant rate data to achieve a synergy of analytical model and data-driven approach. Minimal information (rates and bottom-hole pressure) is required to inexpensively characterize the reservoir. Important information, such as inter-well connectivity, reservoir compressibility effects, etc., can be easily and readily evaluated. The model also suggests optimal injection schemes in an effort to maximize ultimate oil recovery, and hence can assist real time reservoir analysis to make more informed management decisions. Nevertheless, an important limitation in the current CRM model is that it only treats the reservoir flow as single-phase flow, which does not favor capturing physics when the saturation change is large, such as for an immature water flood. To overcome this limitation, we develop a two-phase flow coupled CRM model that couples the pressure equation (fluid continuity equation) and the saturation equation (oil mass balance). Through this coupling, the model parameters such as the connectivity, the time constant, temporal oil saturation, etc., are estimated using nonlinear multivariate regression to history match historical production data. Incorporating the physics of two-phase displacement brings several advantages and benefits to the CRM model, such as the estimation of total mobility change, more accurate prediction of oil production, broader model application range, and better adaptability to complicated field scenarios. Also, the estimated saturation within the drainage volume of each producer can provide insights with respect to the field remaining oil saturation distribution. Synthetic field case studies are carried out to demonstrate the different capabilities of the coupled CRM model in homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with different geological features. The physical meanings of model parameters are well explained and validated through case studies. The results validate the coupled CRM model and show improved accuracy in model parameters obtained through the history match. The prediction of oil production is also significantly improved compared to the current CRM model. A more reliable oil rate prediction enables further optimization to adjust injection strategies. The coupled CRM model has been shown to be fast and stable. Moreover, sensitivity analyses are conducted to study and understand the impact of the input information (e.g., relative permeability, viscosity) upon the output model parameters (e.g., connectivity, time constants). This analysis also proves that the model parameters from the two-phase coupled model can combine both reservoir compressibility and mobility effects. / text

The prevalence of batch and batch-like operations, in conjunction with the continued resurgence of artificial intelligence techniques for clustering and classification applications, has increasingly motivated the exploration of the applicability of deep learning for modeling and feedback control of batch and batch-like processes. To this end, the present study seeks to evaluate the viability of artificial intelligence in general, and neural networks in particular, toward process modeling and control via a case study. Nonlinear autoregressive with exogeneous input (NARX) networks are evaluated in comparison with subspace models within the framework of model-based control. A batch polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) polymerization process is chosen as a simulation test-bed. Subspace-based state-space models and NARX networks identified for the process are first compared for their predictive power. The identified models are then implemented in model predictive control (MPC) to compare the control performance for both modeling approaches. The comparative analysis reveals that the state-space models performed better than NARX networks in predictive power and control performance. Moreover, the NARX networks were found to be less versatile than state-space models in adapting to new process operation. The results of the study indicate that further research is needed before neural networks may become readily applicable for the feedback control of batch processes. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Due to the rapid and prosperous development of information technology, data centers are widely used in every aspect of social life, such as industry, economy or even our daily life. This work considers the idea of developing a data-driven model based model predictive control (MPC) to regulate temperature for a class of single-rack data centers (DCs). An auto-regressive exogenous (ARX) model is identified for our DC system using partial least square (PLS) to predict the behavior of multi-inputs-single-output (MISO) thermal system. Then an MPC controller is designed to control the temperature inside IT rack based on the identified ARX model. Moreover, fuzzy c-means (FCM) is employed to cluster the measured data set. Based on the clustered data sets, PLS is adopted to identify multiple locally linear ARX models which will be combined by appropriate weights in order to capture the nonlinear behavior of the highly-nonlinear thermal system inside the IT rack. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through experiments on our single-rack DC and it is also compared with proportional-integral (PI) control. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Management of water quality is generally based on physically-based equations or hypotheses describing the behaviour of water bodies. In recent years models built on the basis of the availability of larger amounts of collected data are gaining popularity. This modelling approach can be called data driven modelling. Observational data represent specific knowledge, whereas a hypothesis represents a generalization of this knowledge that implies and characterizes all such observational data. Traditionally deterministic numerical models have been used for predicting flow and water quality processes in inland and coastal basins. These models generally take a long time to run and cannot be used as on-line decision support tools, thereby enabling imminent threats to public health risk and flooding etc. to be predicted. In contrast, Data driven models are data intensive and there are some limitations in this approach. The extrapolation capability of data driven methods are a matter of conjecture. Furthermore, the extensive data required for building a data driven model can be time and resource consuming or for the case predicting the impact of a future development then the data is unlikely to exist. The main objective of the study was to develop an integrated approach for rapid prediction of bathing water quality in estuarine and coastal waters. Faecal Coliforms (FC) were used as a water quality indicator and two of the most popular data mining techniques, namely, Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used to predict the FC levels in a pilot basin. In order to provide enough data for training and testing the neural networks, a calibrated hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to generate input data for the neural networks. A novel non-linear data analysis technique, called the Gamma Test, was used to determine the data noise level and the number of data points required for developing smooth neural network models. Details are given of the data driven models, numerical models and the Gamma Test. Details are also given of a series experiments being undertaken to test data driven model performance for a different number of input parameters and time lags. The response time of the receiving water quality to the input boundary conditions obtained from the hydrodynamic model has been shown to be a useful knowledge for developing accurate and efficient neural networks. It is known that a natural phenomenon like bacterial decay is affected by a whole host of parameters which can not be captured accurately using solely the deterministic models. Therefore, the data-driven approach has been investigated using field survey data collected in Cardiff Bay to investigate the relationship between bacterial decay and other parameters. Both of the GP and ANN models gave similar, if not better, predictions of the field data in comparison with the deterministic model, with the added benefit of almost instant prediction of the bacterial levels for this recreational water body. The models have also been investigated using idealised and controlled laboratory data for the velocity distributions along compound channel reaches with idealised rods have located on the floodplain to replicate large vegetation (such as mangrove trees).

Many models have been proposed for software reliability prediction, but none of these models could capture a necessary amount of software characteristic. We have proposed a mixed approach using both analytical and data driven models for finding the accuracy in reliability prediction involving case study. This report includes qualitative research strategy. Data is collected from the case study conducted on three different companies. Based on the case study an analysis will be made on the approaches used by the companies and also by using some other data related to the organizations Software Quality Assurance (SQA) team. Out of the three organizations, the first two organizations used for the case study are working on reliability prediction and the third company is a growing company developing a product with less focus on quality. Data collection was by the means of interviewing an employee of the organization who leads a team and is in the managing position for at least last 2 years. / svra06@student.bth.se

This dissertation contains work that addresses both theoretical and numerical aspects of reduced order models (ROMs). In an under-resolved regime, the classical Galerkin reduced order model (G-ROM) fails to yield accurate approximations. Thus, we propose a new ROM, the data-driven variational multiscale ROM (DD-VMS-ROM) built by adding a closure term to the G-ROM, aiming to increase the numerical accuracy of the ROM approximation without decreasing the computational efficiency. The closure term is constructed based on the variational multiscale framework. To model the closure term, we use data-driven modeling. In other words, by using the available data, we find ROM operators that approximate the closure term. To present the closure term's effect on the ROMs, we numerically compare the DD-VMS-ROM with other standard ROMs. In numerical experiments, we show that the DD-VMS-ROM is significantly more accurate than the standard ROMs. Furthermore, to understand the closure term's physical role, we present a theoretical and numerical investigation of the closure term's role in long-time integration. We theoretically prove and numerically show that there is energy exchange from the most energetic modes to the least energetic modes in closure terms in a long time averaging. One of the promising contributions of this dissertation is providing the numerical analysis of the data-driven closure model, which has not been studied before. At both the theoretical and the numerical levels, we investigate what conditions guarantee that the small difference between the data-driven closure model and the full order model (FOM) closure term implies that the approximated solution is close to the FOM solution. In other words, we perform theoretical and numerical investigations to show that the data-driven model is verifiable. Apart from studying the ROM closure problem, we also investigate the setting in which the G-ROM converges optimality. We explore the ROM error bounds' optimality by considering the difference quotients (DQs). We theoretically prove and numerically illustrate that both the ROM projection error and the ROM error are suboptimal without the DQs, and optimal if the DQs are used. / Doctor of Philosophy / In many realistic applications, obtaining an accurate approximation to a given problem can require a tremendous number of degrees of freedom. Solving these large systems of equations can take days or even weeks on standard computational platforms. Thus, lower-dimensional models, i.e., reduced order models (ROMs), are often used instead. The ROMs are computationally efficient and accurate when the underlying system has dominant and recurrent spatial structures. Our contribution to reduced order modeling is adding a data-driven correction term, which carries important information and yields better ROM approximations. This dissertation's theoretical and numerical results show that the new ROM equipped with a closure term yields more accurate approximations than the standard ROM.

The intermittent nature of renewable energy, variations in energy demand, and fluctuations in oil and gas prices have all contributed to variable demand for power generation from coal-burning power plants. The varying demand leads to load-follow and on/off operations referred to as cycling. Cycling causes transients of properties such as pressure and temperature within various components of the steam generation system. The transients can cause increased damage because of fatigue and creep-fatigue interactions shortening the life of components. The data-driven model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) is developed for the first time to estimate properties of the steam generator components during cycling operations of a power plant. This approach utilizes data from the Coal Creek Station power plant located in North Dakota, USA collected over 10 years with a 1-hour resolution. Cycling characteristics of the plant are identified using a time-series of gross power. The ANN model estimates the component properties, for a given gross power profile and initial conditions, as they vary during cycling operations. As a representative example, the ANN estimates are presented for the superheater outlet pressure, reheater inlet temperature, and flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet. The changes in these variables as a function of the gross power over the time duration are compared with measurements to assess the predictive capability of the model. Mean square errors of 4.49E-04 for superheater outlet pressure, 1.62E-03 for reheater inlet temperature, and 4.14E-04 for flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet were observed.

Transportsektorn är en av världens största producenter av växthusgas därav är dess avkarbonisering essentiell för att uppnå Parisavtalets mål för CO2-emissioner. Ett viktigt steg för att uppnå dessa mål utförs genom elektrifiering. Litium-jon-batterier (eng. litium-ion batteries, ’LIB’) har blivit väldigt populära energilagringssystem för batteridrivna elektriska fordon (eng. battery electric vehicles, ’BEV’) men tenderar att åldras, precis som alla andra batterier. Därav krävs forskning kring batteriföråldring på grund av nedbrytningsprocessernas inverkan på prissättningen, prestationerna och miljöpåverkan av BEV. Olika modeller används för att beskriva batteriernas åldrande. Datadrivna modeller som förutspår batteriers livstid ökar i popularitet vars noggrannhet och prestationer till stor del beror på indatats kvalitet. Formatet för tidsinhämtade data kräver enorma mängder lagringsutrymme, hög processkapacitet och längre processer; något ’reducerad’ eller ’aggregerad’ data delvis åtgärdar. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att utveckla en metodik för användning av dynamiska fordonsdata i ’aggregerad’ form. Tidsloggade data inhämtade från kallklimatstesting av Scanias BEV-prototyp användes varav interaktionseffekterna mellan diverse fordonsparametrar samt deras effekt på batteriåldring utifrån en batteriåldringsmodell analyserades. Olika tillvägagångssätt för strukturering av dynamiska fordonsdata i modellen undersöktes också. Tolv aggregeringsscenarion designades och testades. Dessutom valdes tre scenarion för uppskattningar och jämförelser av återstående användbar livslängd (eng. remaining-useful-life, ’RUL’) tillsammans med resultat från tidsinhämtade data. Slutligen drogs slutsatser om: parameterinteraktioner, struktur av dynamiska fordonsdata och RUL. Flera framtida utvecklingsområden har också föreslagits bland annat: tester av andra aggregeringstekniker, utöka modellen till tjänstefordon samt kategorisera användningsbeteenden av fordon för att förbättra RUL-uppskattningar. / The transport sector is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas producing sector and it’s decarbonisation is imperative to achieve the CO2 emission targets set by the Paris Agreement. One important step towards achieving these targets is through electrification of the sector. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have become very popular energy storage systems for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, LIBs like all other batteries, tend to age. Hence, the study of the battery ageing phenomena is very essential since the degradation in battery characteristics hugely determines the cost, performance and the environmental impact of BEVs. Different modelling approaches are used to represent battery ageing behaviour. Data-driven models for predicting the lifetime of batteries are becoming popular. However, the accuracy and performance of data-driven models largely depends upon the quality of data being used as the input. Time-sampled format of logging data results in huge data files requiring enormous amounts of storage space, high processing power requirements and longer processing times. Instead, using data in a ’reduced’ or ‘aggregated’ form can help in addressing these issues. This thesis work focuses on developing a methodology for using dynamic vehicle data in an ‘aggregated’ form. Time-sampled data from a Scania prototype BEV truck, recorded during cold climate test, was used. The interaction effects between various vehicle parameters and their effect on battery ageing in a battery ageing model were analyzed. Different approaches to structuring dynamic vehicle data for use in the model were also studied. Twelve aggregation scenarios were designed and tested. Furthermore, three scenarios were selected for making remaining-useful-life (RUL) estimations and compared alongside time-sampled data results. Finally, conclusions about parameter interactions, structuring of dynamic vehicle data and RUL estimations were drawn. Several next steps for future work have also been suggested such as testing other aggregation techniques, extending the model to vehicle fleets and categorizing vehicle usage behaviours to make better RUL estimations.

This thesis develops a one-dimensional version of a new data driven model of turbulence that uses the KL expansion to provide a spectral solution of the turbulent flow field based on analysis of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) turbulent data. The analysis derives a 2nd order random field over the whole flow domain that gives better turbulence properties in areas of non-uniform flow and where flow separates than the present models that are based on the Navier-Stokes Equations. These latter models need assumptions to decrease the number of calculations to enable them to run on present day computers or super-computers. These assumptions reduce the accuracy of these models. The improved flow field is gained at the expense of the model not being generic. Therefore the new data driven model can only be used for the flow situation of the data as the analysis shows that the kernel of the turbulent flow field of undular hydraulic jump could not be related to the surface waves, a key feature of the jump. The kernel developed has two parts, called the outer and inner parts. A comparison shows that the ratio of outer kernel to inner kernel primarily reflects the ratio of turbulent production to turbulent dissipation. The outer part, with a larger correlation length, reflects the larger structures of the flow that contain most of the turbulent energy production. The inner part reflects the smaller structures that contain most turbulent energy dissipation. The new data driven model can use a kernel with changing variance and/or regression coefficient over the domain, necessitating the use of both numerical and analytical methods. The model allows the use of a two-part regression coefficient kernel, the solution being the addition of the result from each part of the kernel. This research highlighted the need to assess the size of the structures calculated by the models based on the Navier-Stokes equations to validate these models. At present most studies use mean velocities and the turbulent fluctuations to validate a models performance. As the new data driven model gives better turbulence properties, it could be used in complicated flow situations, such as a rock groyne to give better assessment of the forces and pressures in the water flow resulting from turbulence fluctuations for the design of such structures. Further development to make the model usable includes; solving the numerical problem associated with the double kernel, reducing the number of modes required, obtaining a solution for the kernel of two-dimensional and three-dimensional flows, including the change in correlation length with time as presently the model gives instant realisations of the flow field and finally including third and fourth order statistics to improve the data driven model velocity field from having Gaussian distribution properties. As the third and fourth order statistics are Reynolds Number dependent this will enable the model to be applied to PIV data from physical scale models. In summary, this new data driven model is complementary to models based on the Navier-Stokes equations by providing better results in complicated design situations. Further research to develop the new model is viewed as an important step forward in the analysis of river control structures such as rock groynes that are prevalent on New Zealand Rivers protecting large cities.