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There is a growing body of literature reporting the application of hybrid simulations to inform decision making. However, guidance for the design of such models, where the output depends upon more than one modelling paradigm, is limited. The benefits of realising this guidance include facilitating efficiencies in the general modelling process and reduction in project risk (both across measures of time, cost and quality). Focussing on the least well researched modelling combination of agent-based simulation with system dynamics, a combination potentially suited to modelling complex adaptive systems, the research contribution presented here looks to address this shortfall. Within a modelling process, conceptual modelling is linked to model specification via the design transition. Using standards for systems engineering to formally define this transition, a critical review of the published literature reveals that it is frequently documented. However, coverage is inconsistent and consequently it is difficult to draw general conclusions and establish best practice. Therefore, methods for extracting this information, whilst covering a diverse range of application domains, are investigated. A general framework is proposed to consistently represent the content of conceptual models; characterising the key elements of the content and interfaces between them. Integrating this content in an architectural design, design classes are then defined. Building on this analysis, a decision process is introduced that can be used to determine the utility of these design classes. This research is benchmarked against reported design studies considering system dynamics and discrete-event simulation and demonstrated in a case study where each design archetype is implemented. Finally, the potential for future research to extend this guidance to other modelling combinations is discussed.

The increasing interdependence of economies and the recent economic crisis has considerably strengthened the importance of exporting. It is recognised as promoting the survivability of companies as they are better able to diversify risks and generate multiple income streams. Thus, investigation of the determinants of export performance has become particularly important. Marketing decision-making has been identified as one of the core drivers of firms success. It is a process under the direct control of managers where significant changes can be introduced to improve it, and by extension, the ability to achieve successful outcomes. However, little is known about how export marketing decisions are made and what key decision-making approaches managers rely on to drive their performance. A literature review that span multiple disciplines (e.g. strategic management, organisation studies, marketing) helped to disentangle two key decision-making approaches, namely planning and improvisation. This is the first study examining the impact of both of these simultaneously on a firm s export performance. While planning is considered to be a unidimensional construct, improvisation is comprised of three facets: spontaneity, creativity and action-orientation. Based on decision theory, this research was conducted in two phases. The literature review informed phase 1: a qualitative exploratory study among export managers in the UK. A conceptual model was then derived from the results and tested in phase 2 through quantitative analysis utilising data generated from 200 respondent companies via a self-reported online questionnaires and the application of structural equation modelling. The results indicated that export customer performance was negatively affected by planning and positively influenced by action-orientation, whilst export financial performance was found to benefit from planning. All decision-making approaches (planning, spontaneity, creativity and action-orientation) were found to be positively related to responsiveness to environmental changes. Using moderator analysis, important insights were uncovered into combining decision-making approaches. The export function was found to benefit from a combination of planning and action-orientation, whereas spontaneity and creativity while having separate positive effects are not well combined with planning, producing negative moderation effects.

Bangladesh reformed its corporate governance by adopting Bangladesh Corporate Governance Guidelines-2006 (the BCGG-2006 hereafter) due to pressures from international financial institutions (IFIs). However, there is huge controversy in prior literature regarding the IFIs’ suggested reform initiatives. The thesis asks specific research questions: RQ1. Do institutional investors and bankers in Bangladesh perceive that the level of compliance with the BCGG-2006 by the investee or borrowing company influences the investment and lending decisions respectively? RQ2.1. To what extent is the BCGG-2006 implemented in form rather than in substance? RQ2.2 Is there a relationship between the nature of compliance with the BCGC-2006 and firm performance? RQ3.1. To what extent does reported compliance with the BCGG-2006, as reported in annual reports, overstate underlying compliance with the BCGC-2006? RQ3.2 Does the overstatement of compliance reported in annual reports lead to a different relative ranking of a firm’s corporate governance structure? RQ3.3 What factors influence the overstatement of compliance with the BCG-2006 in annual reports? To investigate RQ1, an inductive approach is taken and data are collected by using semi-structured interviews of investment managers and credit rating analysts. In order to examine the remaining RQs, a deductive approach is taken and data are collected: (1) by using a structured survey questionnaire addressed to company secretaries or CFOs; and (2) from annual reports and stock exchanges. With respect to RQ1, this study finds (1) strong evidence that institutional investors and bankers perceive limited impact of corporate governance mechanisms recommended by the BCGG-2006 on investment and lending decisions respectively. In order to theorise the above findings, two theories: agency theory and the theory of path dependence are contrasted. Using a grounded theory coding, this study finds that (1) companies are locked in the path of control by sponsor families and sponsor families then impede the implementation of the BCGG-2006 and (2) institutional investors and bankers lock themselves in the path of name-based and relationship-based investment and lending practices which deters consideration of corporate governance mechanisms introduced by the BCGG-2006. Very few interviewees provide an explanation consistent with the agency theory. This evidence thus points more to the theory of path dependence than to agency theory. In relation to RQ2.1, this study finds that local privately-owned companies and government-owned companies either do not comply or comply in form but not in substance with the BCGG-2006, while subsidiaries of foreign multinational companies comply in form and in substance with the BCGG-2006. The relative strength of path dependence in local privately-owned companies and government-owned companies and subsidiaries of foreign multinational companies explains these results better than agency theory. The evidence with respect to RQ2.2 provides an indication that the nature of compliance with separation of the chairman and CEO, board independence and audit committee does not have an association with firm performance in case of local privately-owned companies. However, the evidence in relation to RQ2.2 provides an indication that the nature of compliance with the corporate governance mechanisms introduced by the BCGG-2006 makes a difference in firm performance in subsidiaries of foreign multinational companies. With respect to RQ3.1, it is found that companies overstate compliance with the BCGG-2006 in annual reports. With respect to RQ3.2, this study finds that the rank of a firm’s corporate governance is different when comparing compliance with the BCGG-2006 as reported in annual reports with compliance with the BCGG-2006 as stated in the survey. With respect to RQ3.3, it is found that overstatement of compliance is more pronounced with respect to less-observable provisions of the BCGG-2006, is positively associated with control by sponsor families and is negatively associated with control by institutional investors. This evidence is again more consistent with the theory of path dependence and institutional logic than agency theory. The findings of this thesis suggest that corporate governance researchers in developing countries should consider the role of path dependence rather than agency theory exclusively. This thesis also makes a methodological contribution by investigating overstatement of compliance with the BCGG-2006. The findings of this study may also assist regulators in developing countries and the IFIs in formulating future governance guidelines for developing countries.

A policy (or norm) can be defined as a guideline stating what is allowed, what is forbidden and what is obligated for an entity, in a certain situation, so that an acceptable outcome is achieved. Policies occur in many types of scenarios, whether they are loose social networks of individuals or highly structured institutions. It is important, however, for policies to be consistent and to support the goals of organisations they govern. This requires a thorough understanding of the implications of introducing specific policies and how they interact. It is difficult, even for experts, to write consistent, unambiguous and accurate policies, and conflicts are practically unavoidable. At the same time conflicts may vary in significance. For example, some conflicts are most likely to occur, some conflicts may lead to high cost for goal achievement while some conflicts may lead to severe obstacles in the achievement of goals. Such conflicts are the most significant for the domain and goals of organisation. Resolution of conflicts that will clear the obstacles in the goal achievement and will maximize the benefits received must be prioritised. In order to resolve conflicts and refine policies; it is crucial to understand the implications of policies, conflicts and resolutions in terms of goal achievement and benefits to organisation. There exist huge number of policies and conflicts occurring within any organisation. Human decision makers are most likely to be cognitively overloaded. Making is difficult for them to decide which conflicts to prioritise in order to successfully achieve goals while maximizing benefits. Automated reasoning mechanisms can effectively support human decision makers in this process. In this thesis, we have addressed the problem of developing effective automated reasoning support for the detection and resolution of conflicts between plans (to achieve a given goal) and policies. We also present an empirical evaluation of a model of conflict detection and prioritisation through experiments with human users. Our empirical evaluations prove that providing guidance to users regarding what conflicts to prioritise and highlighting related conflicts lead to higher quality outcomes, thereby achieving goals successfully and rapidly.

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The research presented in this thesis considers the question of whether individual-level risk preferences are consistent or inconsistent across decision domains. For example, do people make the same decisions with respect to work, health and finance? Some previous authors have suggested that risk preferences are inconsistent, e. g. Kahneman and Tversky (1979), while others have put forward the idea that people have generalised tendencies to take or avoid risks, e. g. Sitkin and Pablo (1992). The work of Sitkin and Pablo was drawn upon to develop hypotheses concerning the conceptualisation and construction of risk propensity. Risk propensity was operationalised as the degree of consistency of cross-domain risk preferences. It was proposed that a propensity to take or avoid risks is associated with whether individuals have consistent tendencies across different decision domains, that personality will be a key predictor of risk propensity, and that inconsistent cross-domain risk preferences will be associated with risk domain-specific cognitive and emotional aspects of decision making. A survey measure was developed to assess risk and decision preferences both across and within the domains of work, health and finance. Biographical and personality factors were also measured. The sample comprised 360 participants drawn from five sample groups chosen to capture a range of risk preferences. The results showed that risk propensity can be conceptualised and measured in terms of the consistency of cross-domain risk preferences. People who were consistent in their risk preferences were characterised by the personality traits of emotional stability, low extroversion, low openness and high agreeableness. Additionally, consistent risk preferences were associated with relative consistency of attention to situational information and perceived risk. The majority of participants, however, had different risk preferences in different domains, and showed variability in their decision preferences. The implications of the research for understanding risk propensity and risk management are discussed.

Uncertainty in economic decision-making can present itself in a variety of forms however the most commonly researched are risk and ambiguity. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in evaluating the relationship between individuals’ preference for risk and ambiguity through the use of cognitive decision models. Accurately characterizing these preferences therefore relies on the use of appropriate models and model fitting techniques. Huettel, Stowe, Gordon, Warner & Platt (2006) used Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and the alpha maxmin model to evaluate individuals risk and ambiguity preference, respectively. Their results suggest that risk and ambiguity evoke disparate cognitive processes at both a behavioural and neural level. However, the use of EUT in characterizing risk preference calls into question the accuracy of their results. The present study attempts to re-evaluate the relationship between risk and ambiguity using a more appropriate and well-established model of risky decision-making, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). Using a similar task design as Huettel et al. (2006), participants (N = 93) were required to make a series of decisions between two options that involved monetary outcomes. Each trial consisted of choices between two of the following options: risky, certain and ambiguous. Parameters for both EUT and CPT were estimated on risky trials and used to inform the estimation of ambiguity parameters using the α-maxmin on ambiguous trials. Moreover, each model was estimated using two methods of model fitting, optimization and hierarchical Bayesian analysis methods. Overall, CPT outperformed EUT on risky trials as well, ambiguity parameters from α-maxmin informed by CPT risk parameters outperformed EUT informed α-maxmin parameters. Finally, CPT estimated alpha and beta values were found to be uncorrelated. However, the present results demonstrate that ambiguity preference parameters correlate with the probability distortion parameters that may be a more accurate depiction of an individuals’ level of risk preference. These results can be used to inform future endeavours uncovering the neural correlates of levels of uncertainty in decision-making. / Graduate

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research focused on how entrepreneurs (1) think; (2) see business opportunities; (3) convert an idea into a successful business; (4) observe and tap into consumer behaviour; and (5) how they use the information that they have gathered to their own best advantage. Various researchers and authors attempted (and will attempt) to define an entrepreneur, entrepreneurial traits, opportunity recognition and consumer behaviour. Literature focusses on each individual aspect of an entrepreneur, but no comprehensive literature is available on how entrepreneurs’ minds work ‘prowling’ for opportunities, implementing the opportunity they saw into practice and how they deal with failure. The researcher interviewed six entrepreneurs from his community in the North Coast of Kwa-Zulu Natal. A questionnaire of 27 specific questions was compiled to direct the discussions, but the candidates were given freedom to relay their stories. The questions were designed not only to cover the 5 issues mentioned in paragraph 1, but also to cover softer issues such as: how they handle failure and difficult situations; why they have beaten the statistics in being a successful entrepreneur and who and what their supporting structures are. All the interviews were recorded, then transcribed for analysis and coding. Once all the data was ‘given a label’, the data was grouped by using axial coding that resulted in the data being grouped into themes. The researcher then looked for core themes emanating from the answers given by the participants. Financial success is usually driven by commercial values, where the primary goal is to achieve the maximum profit by outwitting and outperforming the competition. On the other hand, the entrepreneurial spirit is driven by other values and entrepreneurs are at times totally oblivious of the competition in the market. Entrepreneurs have a tendency to tenaciously listen to themselves with an unflinching trust that success will follow the implementation of their ideas. This research found that the entrepreneurial spirit could not be bottled, labelled, or sold. The entrepreneurial spirit is a natural phenomenon that does not suit everyone. Entrepreneurs have a propensity towards risk-taking, but they take calculated risks. They see risk as a calculated even and not a gamble. The research further found that ‘to see opportunities you have to be in the game’. Opportunities seldom come by sitting on the side-line. A key word that was uncovered was ‘pivoting’ – one idea leads to the next and the new idea and opportunity ‘pivots’ further, causing an idea chain reaction into other business opportunities and diversification. The research finally uncovered that entrepreneurs rely heavily on their support structure, they can see the ‘wood for the trees’ when it comes to failure (not making it a personal failure) and they are quasi-philanthropists, investing in their communities and other emerging companies.