NOGUEIRA, A. A. O. Capacitação tecnológica como instrumento de desenvolvimento e de inserção internacional: o caso da tecnologia da indústria automobilística. 2006. 364 f . Tese (Doutorado) Programa de Pós-graduação em Integração da América Latina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2006. Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para tomada de decisão sobre tecnologias-chave. A metodologia fundamenta-se no programa de pesquisa sobre racionalidade, solução de problema e tomada de decisão de Chiappin, com relevante participação de Leïster. O método de escolha é estabelecido a partir do compromisso de eficiência entre um critério de competência, relacionado à produtividade e ao movimento de inovação, e um critério de redução da dependência econômica, relacionado a um melhor posicionamento estratégico internacional. Uma matriz de decisão é definida com base no método de escolha estabelecido. Para cada dimensão da matriz de decisão, critérios de avaliação de desempenho são definidos para avaliação das tecnologias. A metodologia é aplicada de forma ampla às tecnologias da indústria automobilística. Tecnologias-chave do setor automobilístico são identificadas e classificadas numa escala de prioridades. A similitude entre a metodologia proposta e as diretrizes de política industrial do Governo é comprovada pelos resultados obtidos. Uma aplicação menor da metodologia ao setor tecnológico da TV Digital ilustra a possibilidade de aplicação desta tecnologia de tomada de decisão a outros setores tecnológicos e industriais. A proposição de um produto ideal, que utilize as tecnologias-chave identificadas nos dois setores analisados, completa a pesquisa. / NOGUEIRA, A. A. O. Increase of the technological capability as an instrument both of development and international insertion: the case of the technology at the automobile industry. 2006. 364 f . Thesis (Doctoral) Programa de Pós-graduação em Integração da América Latina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2006. This work presents a methodology for decision making on key-technologies. The methodology is based on the research program about rationality, problem solution and decision making of Chiappin, with relevant participation of Leïster. The selection method is established based on the efficiencys trade-off between a criterion of competence, related to the productivity and to the movement of innovation, and a criterion of economical dependence reduction, related to a better international strategic position. A decision matrix is defined with basis on the established selection method. For each dimension of the decision matrix, performance assessment criteria are defined for the assessment of technologies. The methodology is extensively applied to the technologies of the automobile industry. Keytechnologies of the automobile sector are identified and classified according to a priority scale. The similarity between the proposed methodology and the Brazilian government industrial policy is confirmed through the achieved results. A minor application of the methodology to the Digital TV technological sector illustrates the possibility of application of this decision making technology to other industrial and technological sectors. The proposition of an ideal product that uses the key-technologies identified in the two analyzed sectors completes the research.

Na Inferência Estatística, é comum, após a realização de um experimento, testar simultaneamente um conjunto de diferentes hipóteses de interesse acerca de um parâmetro desconhecido. Assim, para cada hipótese, realiza-se um teste de hipótese e, a partir disto, conclui-se algo sobre os parâmetros de interesse. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a (falta de) concordância lógica entre as conclusões obtidas a partir dos testes realizados após a observação de um único experimento. Neste estudo, é apresentada uma definição de classe de testes de hipóteses, uma função que para cada hipótese de interesse associa uma função de teste. São então avaliadas algumas propriedades que refletem como gostaríamos que testes para diferentes hipóteses se comportassem em termos de coerência lógica. Tais propriedades são exemplificadas através de classes de testes que as satisfazem. A seguir, consideram-se conjuntos de axiomas para classes. Estes axiomas são baseados nas propriedades mencionadas. Classes de testes usuais são investigadas com relação aos conjuntos de axiomas propostos. São também estudadas propriedades advindas de tais conjuntos de axiomas. Por fim, estuda-se um resultado que estabelece uma espécie de conexão entre testes de hipóteses e estimação pontual. / In Statistical Inference, it is usual, after an experiment is performed, to test simultaneously a set of hypotheses of interest concerning an unknown parameter. Therefore, to each hypothesis, a statistical test is performed and a conclusion about the parameter is drawn based on it. The objective of this work is to evaluate the (lack of) logical coherence among conclusions obtained from tests conducted after the observation of a single experiment. In this study, a definition of class of hypotheses tests, a function that associates a test function to each hypothesis of interest, is presented. Some properties that reflect what one could expect (in terms of logical coherence) from tests to different hypotheses are then evaluated. These properties are exemplified by classes of hypotheses tests that respect them. Then, sets of axioms based on the properties studied are proposed to classes of hypotheses tests. Usual classes of hypotheses tests are investigated with respect to these sets of axioms. Some properties related to these sets of axioms are then analyzed. At last, a result which seems to connect hypotheses testing and point estimation is stated.

A literatura acadêmica sobre o comportamento do investidor financeiro é bastante escassa. A pesquisa sobre o processo de decisão, em geral, aborda tradeoffs na aquisição de produtos e pouco se discute o processo de decisão de investimento. Esta tese pretende contribuir para a redução deste gap ao discutir fatores determinantes para a tomada de decisão do investidor pessoal em produtos financeiros. A decisão de investimento é complexa, envolve, entre outros, o tradeoff entre renunciar o consumo presente pela possibilidade de maior bem estar no futuro. Adicionalmente, em muitas situações, existe possibilidade real de perda dos recursos financeiros investidos. Para investigar os percursos desta decisão foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade com executivos ligados ao setor de fundos de investimento e ao de distribuição de produtos de investimento dos maiores bancos brasileiros atuantes no segmento de varejo. Os conhecimentos recolhidos e a revisão de literatura efetuada subsidiaram a elaboração do questionário de pesquisa aplicado em plataforma web junto a potenciais investidores. Os atributos rentabilidade, possibilidade de perda (proxy de risco), liquidez, taxa de administração e recomendação do gerente foram identificados como os mais relevantes para a decisão do investidor. Para construção dos estímulos e decomposição da utilidade da decisão foi utilizada a técnica conjoint based choice (CBC) que simula uma decisão real. Os resultados apontaram ser a recomendação do gerente o atributo mais importante para a formação da preferência por uma alternativa de investimento, resultado que, por si só, indica que fatores não racionais exercem influência na decisão. Estudou-se, então, o impacto da aversão ao risco e do estilo cognitivo do investidor. Os resultados denotam que os mais avessos e os mais intuitivos são mais suscetíveis à recomendação do gerente, mas que seus efeitos são independentes entre si. As evidências sugerem que os mais intuitivos utilizam o gerente para alcançar conforto cognitivo na decisão e que os mais avessos para mitigar a sensação de risco associada ao produto. Uma análise de cluster indicou ser possível segmentar a amostra em dois grupos, um mais propenso à recomendação do gerente e outro aos atributos do produto. A recomendação do gerente mostrou ser o atributo mais forte na distinção dos grupos. Os resultados indicam que uma segmentação de mercado baseada na propensão à recomendação do gerente pode ser efetiva para direcionar a construção de uma estratégia de relacionamento que busque incrementar os resultados de longo prazo. / The academic literature on the financial investor behavior is rather scarce. Research on decision generally discusses tradeoffs when purchasing products and little is discussed the investment decision process. This thesis aims to contribute to the reduction of this gap when discussing determining factors for decision making personnel investor in financial products. The investment decision is complex, involving, among others, the tradeoff between forgo present consumption by the possibility of greater well-being in the future. Additionally, in many situations, there is real possibility of loss of funds invested. To investigate the pathways of this decision were conducted in-depth interviews with executives linked to the investment fund industry and the distribution of investment products of the largest Brazilian banks operating in the retail segment. The collected knowledge and performed literature review supported the development of the survey questionnaire applied to web platform to potential investors. Attributes profitability, possible loss (risk proxy), liquidity, management fees and manager\'s recommendation have been identified as the most relevant for the investor\'s decision. Construction of stimuli and decomposition of the decision utility was based on the technique named conjoint based choice (CBC) that simulates a real decision. The results showed to be the manager\'s recommendation the most important attribute for the formation of preference for an alternative investment, a result which, in itself, indicates that non-rational factors influence the decision. It was studied, then the impact of risk aversion and investor cognitive style. The results show that the more averse and more intuitive are more susceptible to the manager\'s recommendation but their effects are independent of each other. Evidence suggests that the most intuitive use the manager to achieve cognitive comfort in the decision and the most averse to mitigate the feeling of risk associated with the product. A cluster analysis indicated to be possible to segment the sample into two groups, one more prone to the manager\'s recommendation and the other more prone to product attributes. The manager\'s recommendation proved to be the strongest attribute distinguishing the groups. The results indicate that a segmentation of the market based on the propensity to manager\'s recommendation can be effective to direct the building of a relationship strategy that seeks to increase the long-term results

多項式回歸模型可用來模擬賽馬過程。不同研究者對模型中馬匹的效用的分佈採取不同的假設，包括指數分佈，它與Harville 模型（Harville, 1973）相同，伽馬分佈（Stern, 1990）和正態分佈（Henery, 1981）。Harville 模型無法模擬賽馬過程中競爭第二位和第三位等非冠軍位置時增加的隨機性（Benter, 1994）。Stern 模型假設效用服從形狀參數大於一的伽馬分佈，Henery 模型假設效用服從正態分佈。Bacon-Shone，Lo 和 Busche（1992），Lo 和 Bacon-Shone（1994）和 Lo（1994）研究證明了相較於Harville 模型，這兩個模型能更好地模擬賽馬過程。本文利用賽馬歷史數據，採用貝葉斯方法對賽馬結果中馬匹勝出的概率進行預測。本文假設效用服從伽馬分佈。本文針對多項式回歸模型，提出一個在Metropolis-Hastings 抽樣方法中選擇提議分佈的簡便方法。此方法由Scott（2008）首次提出。我們在似然函數中加入服從伽馬分佈的效用作為潛變量。通過將服從伽馬分佈的效用變換成一個服從Mihram（1975）所描述的廣義極值分佈的隨機變量，我們得到一個線性回歸模型。由此線性模型我們可得到最小二乘估計，本文亦討論最小二乘估計的漸進抽樣分佈。我們利用此估計的方差得到Metropolis-Hastings 抽樣方法中的提議分佈。最後，我們可以得到回歸參數的後驗分佈樣本。本文用香港賽馬數據做模擬賽馬投資以檢驗本文提出的估計方法。 / In multinomial regression of racetrack betting, dierent distributions of utilities have been proposed: exponential distribution which is equivalent to Harville’s model (Harville, 1973), gamma distribution (Stern, 1990) and normal distribution (Henery, 1981). Harville’s model has the drawback that it ignores the increasing randomness of the competitions for the second and third place (Benter, 1994). The Stern’s model using gamma utilities with shape parameter greater than 1 and the Henery’s model using normal utilities have been shown to produce a better t (Bacon-Shone, Lo and Busche, 1992; Lo and Bacon-Shone, 1994; Lo, 1994). In this thesis, we use the Bayesian methodology to provide prediction on the winning probabilities of horses with the historical observed data. The gamma utility is adopted throughout the thesis. In this thesis, a convenient method of selecting Metropolis-Hastings proposal distributions for multinomial models is developed. A similar method is rst exploited by Scott (2008). We augment the gamma distributed utilities in the likelihood as latent variables. The gamma utility is transformed to a variable that follows generalized extreme value distribution described by Mihram (1975) through which we get a linear regression model. Least squares estimate of the parameters is easily obtained from this linear model. The asymptotic sampling distribution of the least squares estimate is discussed. The Metropolis-Hastings proposal distribution is generated conditioning on the variance of the estimator. Finally, samples from the posterior distribution of regression parameters are obtained. The proposed method is tested through betting simulations using data from Hong Kong horse racing market. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Xu, Wenjun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 46-48). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Hong Kong Horse Racing Market and Models in Horse Racing --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Hong Kong Horse Racing Market --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Models in Horse Racing --- p.6 / Chapter 3 --- Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Multinomial Regression with Gamma Utilities --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1 --- Notations and Posterior Distribution --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm --- p.11 / Chapter 4 --- Application --- p.15 / Chapter 4.1 --- Variables --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2 --- Markov Chain Simulation --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- Model Selection --- p.27 / Chapter 4.4 --- Estimation Result --- p.31 / Chapter 4.5 --- Betting Strategies and Comparisons --- p.33 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.41 / Appendix A --- p.43 / Appendix B --- p.44 / Bibliography --- p.46

National soccer teams are currently ranked by soccer's governing body, the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA). Although the system used by FIFA is thorough, taking into account many different factors, many of the weights used in the system's calculations are somewhat arbitrary. It is investigated here how the use of a statistical model might better compare the teams for ranking purposes. By treating each game played as a pairwise comparison experiment and by using the Bradley-Terry model as a starting point some suitable models are presented. A key component of the final model introduced here its ability to differentiate between friendly matches and competitive matches when determining the impact of a match on a teams ranking. Posterior distributions of the rating parameters are obtained, and the rankings and results obtained from each model are compared to FIFA's rankings and each other.

Over the past decade of accounting and finance research, the Ohlson (1995) model has been widely adopted as a framework for stock price prediction. While using the accounting data of 391 companies from SP500 in this paper, Bayesian statistical techniques are adopted to enhance both the estimative and predictive qualities of the Ohlson model comparing to the classical approaches. Specifically, the classical methods are used for the exploratory data analysis and then the Bayesian strategies are applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo method in three stages: individual analysis for each company, grouping analysis for each group and adaptive analysis by pooling information across companies. The base data, which consist of 20 quarters' observations starting from the first quarter of 1998, are used to make inferences for the regression coefficients (or parameters), evaluate the model adequacy and predict the stock price for the first quarter of 2004, when the real observations are set as the test data to evaluate the predictive ability of the Ohlson model. The results are averaged within each specified group categorized via the general industrial classification (GIC). The empirical results show that classical models result in larger stock price prediction errors, more positively-biased predictions and have much smaller explanatory powers than Bayesian models. A few transformations of both classical and Bayesian models are also performed in this paper, however, transformations of the classical models do not outweigh the usefulness of applying Bayesian statistics.

Data from the 1995 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) indicate that, due to chronic conditions, the onset of activity limitation typically occurs between age 40-70 years (i.e., the proportion of young adults with activity limitation is small and roughly constant with age and then it starts to change, roughly increasing). We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to detect the change point of a positive activity limitation status (ALS) across twelve domains based on race, gender, and education. We have two types of data: weighted and unweighted. We obtain weighted binomial counts using a regression analysis with the sample weights. Given the proportion of individuals in the population with positive ALS, we assume that the number of individuals with positive ALS at each age group has a binomial probability mass function. The proportions across age are different, and have the same beta distribution up to the change point (unknown), and the proportions after the change point have a different beta distribution. We consider two different analyses. The first considers each domain individually in its own model and the second considers the twelve domains simultaneously in a single model to“borrow strength" as in small area estimation. It is reasonable to assume that each domain has its own onset.In the first analysis, we use the Gibbs sampler to fit the model, and a computation of the marginal likelihoods, using an output analysis from the Gibbs sampler, provides the posterior distribution of the change point. We note that a reversible jump sampler fails in this analysis because it tends to get stuck either age 40 or age 70. In the second analysis, we use the Gibbs sampler to fit only the joint posterior distribution of the twelve change points. This is a difficult problem because the joint density requires the numerical computation of a triple integral at each iteration. The other parameters of the process are obtained using data augmentation by a Metropolis sampler and a Rao-Blackwellization. We found that overall the age of onset is about 50 to 60 years.

O principal objetivo do estudo foi utilizar informações de ocorrência do Traumatismo Crânio Encefálico (TCE) que possam inferir/gerar descobertas associadas ao risco de gravidade do paciente, bem como auxiliar na tomada de decisão médica ao definir o melhor prognóstico, indicando quais as possíveis medidas que podem ser escolhidas para a gravidade na lesão sofrida pela vítima. Inicialmente, foram analisadas as estatísticas descritivas dos dados dos pacientes de TCE de um hospital do interior de São Paulo. Participaram desse estudo 50 pacientes. Os resultados mostraram que a maior frequência do trauma é por acidentes de trânsito (62%), seguidos de acidentes por queda (24%). Traumas em pacientes do sexo masculino (88%) são muito mais frequentes do que em pacientes do sexo feminino. Para modelagem, transformou-se a variável resposta \"Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS)\" em dicotômica, considerando 0 (zero) aos pacientes fora de risco e 1 (um) aos que apresentaram algum tipo de risco. Em seguida, técnicas de aprendizado estatístico foram utilizadas de modo a comparar o desempenho dos classificadores Regressão Logística sendo um caso do Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) e redes probabilísticas Naïve Bayes (NB). O modelo com melhor desempenho (RF) combinou os índices Accuracy (ACC) , Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) , Sensitivity (SEN), Specificity (SPE) e Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), que apresentaram os resultados mais favoráveis no quesito de apoio no auxílio da tomada de decisão médica, possibilitando escolher o estudo clínico mais adequado das vítimas traumatizadas ao considerar o risco de vida do indivíduo. Conforme o modelo selecionado foi possível gerar um ranking para estimar a probabilidade de risco de vida do paciente. Em seguida foi realizado uma comparação de desempenho entre o modelo RF (novo classificador) e os índices Revisited Trauma Score (RTS), Injury Severity Score (ISS) , Índice de Barthel (IB) referente à classificação de risco dos pacientes. / The main objective of this study was to consider the information related to the occurrence of traumatic brain injury (TBI) that can infer new results associated with the patients risk of severity as well as assisting in the medical decision in order to find the best prognosis; this can lead to indicate possible measures that can be chosen for severity in the injury suffered by the victim. Initially, we have presented descriptive statistics from the patients with TBI from a hospital located in the heartland of São Paulo. Fifty patients were recruited for this study. Descriptive analyzes showed that the highest frequency of trauma is due to traffic accidents (62 %) followed by crashes per accident (24 %). The causes related to trauma occur much more often in male patients (88 %) than in female patients. To order model, the response variable Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was considered as dichotomous, where 0 (zero) was to out-of-risk patients and 1 (one) to those who presented some type of risk. Further, statistical learning techniques were used in order to compare the performance of the Logistic Regression as a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Naive Bayes (NB) model. The best performing (RF) model combined the Accuracy (ACC) , Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) , Sensitivity (SEN), Specificity (SPE) e Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), which presented the most favorable results in terms of support in medical decision, making it possible to choose the most appropriate clinical study of traumatized victims based on the individual life risk. According to the selected model it was possible to generate a rank to estimate the probability of life risk of the patient. Then a performance comparison was performed between the RF model (proposed classifier) and the Revisited Trauma Score (RTS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), Barthel index (IB) referring to the risk classification of patients.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2015-10-08T11:31:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Lorena Duarte Santos Lopes_.pdf: 5337361 bytes, checksum: 706203861b3730663d869769281dd2f2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-08T11:31:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lorena Duarte Santos Lopes_.pdf: 5337361 bytes, checksum: 706203861b3730663d869769281dd2f2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-02 / Nenhuma / A importância do ato de decidir em um Estado Democrático de Direito passa pela perfeita compreensão acerca da diferença existente entre escolher e decidir, de acordo com os termos preconizados por Lenio Streck. Portanto, não deve o juiz, ao tomar suas decisões, intuir de forma parcial ou discricionária, já que não se trata puramente de um ato de escolha: decidir exige verdadeiro compromisso constitucional. Todavia, hodiernamente no Brasil, o que se constata é a recepção de teorias estrangeiras cujos elementos e técnicas enfatizam a discricionariedade judicial - dentre as quais, a teoria da argumentação jurídica de Robert Alexy e sua técnica da ponderação em caso de colisão entre direitos fundamentais. Faz-se necessário então analisar as origens de tal princípio em seu ambiente jusfilosófico de formação - qual seja, a jurisprudência dos valores - para enfim verificar os principais elementos que a constituem. Ademais, se apura a incorporação da teoria no Direito brasileiro por sua constante presença nas mais diversas obras jurídicas nacionais - sobretudo em sede de Direito Constitucional - observando a menção recorrente aos elementos alexyanos nos julgados do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF). Em razão da alta carga de discricionariedade vinculada à teoria, tais posturas doutrinárias e jurisprudências devem ser combatidas. Como instrumento para o enfrentamento do problema da discricionariedade judicial, escolheu-se a proposta a Teoria da Decisão Judicial, de Lenio Luiz Streck. / The importance about decide in a Law Democratic State are associated with the perfect notion about difference between choosing and deciding, according to Lenio Streck. Torendertheir decisions the judge can’t actpartially, discretion. Because judgingisnotan actof choice, to deciderequires a real constitutional commitment. However, at present, there is in Brasil the introductionof international theory that whose elementsand techniques highlights the judicial discretion.Including the “teoria da Argumentação Jurídica” os Robert Alexy, and the technique of weighting, when happen the collision between fundamental rights.It’s necessary to analyze the origin of this theory in their legal and philosophical environment, namely, the jurisprudence of values in Germany, and and their evidence to conclude it was inadequate to Brazilian law.It is possible to observe the incorporation of this theoryin Brazilian Law for his constant presencein several national legal works, especially inconstitutional lawbooks, and the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court. Because of the high burden of discretion linked to this theorythis attitudemust be fought. Like a way ofcopingagainstjudicial discretion it is proposed the “theory ofjudicial decision” of Lenio Luiz Streck.

NOGUEIRA, A. A. O. Capacitação tecnológica como instrumento de desenvolvimento e de inserção internacional: o caso da tecnologia da indústria automobilística. 2006. 364 f . Tese (Doutorado) Programa de Pós-graduação em Integração da América Latina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2006. Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para tomada de decisão sobre tecnologias-chave. A metodologia fundamenta-se no programa de pesquisa sobre racionalidade, solução de problema e tomada de decisão de Chiappin, com relevante participação de Leïster. O método de escolha é estabelecido a partir do compromisso de eficiência entre um critério de competência, relacionado à produtividade e ao movimento de inovação, e um critério de redução da dependência econômica, relacionado a um melhor posicionamento estratégico internacional. Uma matriz de decisão é definida com base no método de escolha estabelecido. Para cada dimensão da matriz de decisão, critérios de avaliação de desempenho são definidos para avaliação das tecnologias. A metodologia é aplicada de forma ampla às tecnologias da indústria automobilística. Tecnologias-chave do setor automobilístico são identificadas e classificadas numa escala de prioridades. A similitude entre a metodologia proposta e as diretrizes de política industrial do Governo é comprovada pelos resultados obtidos. Uma aplicação menor da metodologia ao setor tecnológico da TV Digital ilustra a possibilidade de aplicação desta tecnologia de tomada de decisão a outros setores tecnológicos e industriais. A proposição de um produto ideal, que utilize as tecnologias-chave identificadas nos dois setores analisados, completa a pesquisa. / NOGUEIRA, A. A. O. Increase of the technological capability as an instrument both of development and international insertion: the case of the technology at the automobile industry. 2006. 364 f . Thesis (Doctoral) Programa de Pós-graduação em Integração da América Latina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2006. This work presents a methodology for decision making on key-technologies. The methodology is based on the research program about rationality, problem solution and decision making of Chiappin, with relevant participation of Leïster. The selection method is established based on the efficiencys trade-off between a criterion of competence, related to the productivity and to the movement of innovation, and a criterion of economical dependence reduction, related to a better international strategic position. A decision matrix is defined with basis on the established selection method. For each dimension of the decision matrix, performance assessment criteria are defined for the assessment of technologies. The methodology is extensively applied to the technologies of the automobile industry. Keytechnologies of the automobile sector are identified and classified according to a priority scale. The similarity between the proposed methodology and the Brazilian government industrial policy is confirmed through the achieved results. A minor application of the methodology to the Digital TV technological sector illustrates the possibility of application of this decision making technology to other industrial and technological sectors. The proposition of an ideal product that uses the key-technologies identified in the two analyzed sectors completes the research.