Lucie Vítková: Populační vývoj zemí po demografické revoluci Abstract The aim of the thesis is an analysis of main features of population development in developed countries and a question whether there is homogeneity of population development. Demographic revolution is a qualitative change from extensive to intensive character of demographic reproduction and it is a subject to modernization. Countries which are understood not only as demographically developed ones but also as economically developed has been taken as an object of this thesis. These countries finished demographic revolution at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. This period has been used as a starting point for most analysis which has been carried out. Demographic reproduction is a process determined by biological and social factors. Human reproduction takes place in relatively stable limits, which lead to its homogenization. The importance of social conditionality has grown during demographic revolution, social aspects are the cause of their development changes and specific features, same social conditions lead to homogenization. Presumption of different features of population development as consequence of different conditions in former Eastern and Western countries has been confirmed not only in individual main demographic indexes...

The paper uses data from 2003 Multiscopo Italian Survey to estimate education effects on fertility and in particular to determine how and to what degree does unobserved heterogeneity influence the estimated effects, that is to say how unobserved heterogeneity might bias estimates of effects of education on transition to 1st, 2nd and 3rd births. The peculiarity of this study is the implementation of a multiprocess approach, which allows for a broader and more efficient view of the phenomenon, studying jointly the transition to first, second and third or higher order births. In doing this I will use control variables, in particular educational level of the mother and her siblings (i.e. partner and grandmother), to detect possible influences of education in childbearing timing. Moreover, this topic has not yet been analysed using Italian data, in particular using Multiscopo Survey data and it may produce interesting comparisons with regard to other European countries, where the topic has already been addressed. In this study I will prove that number of siblings is the variable, which has a significative and relevant effect in all the models considered and that women partner’s education has an up-and-down effect on transition to childbearing. Moreover, the inclusion of unobserved characteristics of women has an important role in understanding transition to childbearing, being positive and significant.

The proportion of children born outside of marriage in Chile increased from 15.9 percent in 1960 to 64.6 percent in 2008. Similar increases have been taken elsewhere as indicative of a Second Demographic Transition (SDT). In this dissertation, I study differences between married and unmarried mothers in Chile and the reasons why such a large proportion of children are born outside of marriage, with the goal of understanding whether the demographic changes we are observing in the country are part of a global movement towards the SDT. The data comes from a postpartum survey implemented in Santiago, the capital city. I analyze differences between women according to the family arrangement they live in, including married women in nuclear households, married women in extended households, cohabiters in nuclear households, cohabiters in extended households, visiting mothers, and single mothers. I consider women’s socioeconomic wellbeing, emotional wellbeing, social support, attitudes and values, and reproductive health. The results show large demographic and socioeconomic differences, marking the socioeconomic advantage of married women in nuclear households, who are the oldest, and the disadvantage of cohabiters in extended households, visiting and single mothers, who are the youngest women in the sample. Married women in extended households and cohabiters in nuclear households are between these two poles. Differences in emotional wellbeing exist, benefiting married women in nuclear households, but they are not so large. Differences in social support continue delineating married women in nuclear households as a privileged group, but visiting mothers appear as a highly supported group too. There are not large differences in attitudes and values, as most women continue holding conservative attitudes on family issues, and most unmarried mothers plan to marry. Differences in reproductive health are large, showing that unplanned births and contraceptive failure are high in the underprivileged and youngest groups. Unmarried women seem to accept their pregnancies with no pressure to marry, and to give priority to other goals, such as their careers and homeownership, before the wedding, which they do not discard for the future. Under these circumstances, it is hard to interpret recent demographic changes in Chile as a SDT. / text

This thesis studies the long-run relationship between gender equality and economic growth. In particular, it aims at understanding and explaining the mechanisms and determinants underpinning the development process which allowed economies to move out of a long period of stagnation into a state of sustainable economic growth. The scientific objective is to check the validity of the central hypothesis that improving equality between men and women is a key ingredient of the demographic transition and of the process of socio-economic development. Quantitative and empirical analysis of this relationship is based on a renewed cliometric approach. Hence we aim at producing a quantitative projection of social sciences in the past, structured by economic theory, mathematical modeling, and informed by statistical and econometric methods. The projected innovation is to build a bridge between the theoretical models of growth and economic history. This new line of research between pure empiricism and abstract theory allows to interpret economic issues taking into account the past and in so doing, to understand more deeply the economic and social historical processes.

[pt] Há pouca resposta das taxas nominais de juros ao movimentos da inflação na segunda metade do Século XIX, enquanto a equação de Fisher prevê uma relação de um para um da taxa nominal de juros à inflação. A maior parte das respostas a essa observação dependem, de algum jeito, de argumentos sobre a irracionalidade dos agentes econômicos (Fisher (1906), Friedman e Schwartz (1982), Summers (1983) e Barsky e De Long (1991), por exemplo), ou argumentam que os dados desse período são falhos (Perez e Siegler (2003)). Nessa dissertação, eu argumento que a taxa de juros nominal não aumentou o quanto deveria não por irracionalidade dos agentes, mas sim porque a taxa natural de juros abaixou como resposta a uma transição demográfica nesse período, atribuída às melhoras na infraestrutura de saúde pública e a avanços na ciência médica. Eu construo um modelo de gerações imbricadas estilizado com base em Gertler (1999) que captura algumas das principais características da economia americana desse período. Então, calibro-o e conduzo experimentos demográficos para mostrar que o principal argumento de Barsky e De Long (1991) contra o efeito Fisher não prossegue caso se cancelem os efeitos da transição demográfica. / [en] There is little response of nominal interest rates to inflationary movements in the second half of the Nineteenth Century, while the Fisher equation would predict a one-to-one relation between these economic variables. Most of the previous answers to this observation rely on some sort of irrationality argument (Fisher (1906), Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Summers (1983) and Barsky and De Long (1991) are some examples) or state that there are problems in the data used (Perez and Siegler (2003)). In this thesis, I argue that this is not due to agent irrationality, but to the lowering of the equilibrium interest rate level as a response to a demographic transition attributed to advances in medical science and enhancements in sanitation infrastructure. I build an stylized overlapping generations model based on Gertler (1999) that captures the main features of the American Economy during this period, then calibrate it and conduct experiments to show that Barsky and De Long s (1991) strike on the Fisher Effect does not hold when the demographic channel is turned off.

L'Homme est le bénéficiaire ultime et l'intrant essentiel du développement et de la croissance. Le capital humain identifié comme moteur de la croissance économique est fortement lié à la variable démographique. L'institution familiale par ses décisions de fécondité et d'investissement en éducation de ses membres est un préambule pour la formation du capital humain. L'intérêt est porté, alors, à l'interaction entre la quantité et la qualité de l'Homme. Notre étude de la croissance économique est conduite par l'analyse de la fécondité comme variable de croissance économique. Elle cherche à dégager les influences de la fécondité notamment par ses interactions avec l'éducation dans l'explication des performances économiques. Grâce à des analyses: macro et microéconomique, nous vérifions la présence d'une association éducation-fécondité et sa contribution dans le processus de la croissance pour la Tunisie. Une analyse quantitative dynamique du lien entre la fécondité, l'éducation et la croissance économique aussi bien à long terme qu'à court terme au cours de la période 1963-2007 est entreprise employant les techniques de séries temporelles. Aussi, une analyse quantitative de la fécondité : naturelle, désirée, réelle, de l'écart et de la régulation est mise en œuvre par des modèles micro économétriques tels que ceux de choix discret, de comptage et de durée. Elle prouve que le comportement des ménages est guidé par l'arbitrage entre la quantité et la qualité d'enfants et met en évidence les déterminants économiques et socioculturels. Ces analyses permettent d'annoncer les politiques cadrant le comportement familial de fécondité dans le processus de développement. / Human is the final benefit and the essential input of economic growth and development. Human capital as an economic growth driving force is strongly influenced by demographic variables. Family institution is a preliminary for human capital accumulation considering its fertility and education investment in its member's decision. Hence, human capital analysis leads necessary to endogenous population growth. Then, our interest is focused to human quantity and quality interaction. Our economic growth investigation is so conducted by analysing fertility as economic growth variable. Our essay is to put out fertility influences notably by its interaction with education in explaining economic performances. Referring to macro and micro economic family analysis, we verify education/fertility relationship and its contribution in the growth process in Tunisian case. A long and short dynamic quantitative analysis of fertility, education and growth equilibrium relationship over the period 1963-2007 is undertaken using times series technique. Although a quantitative analysis of actual, desired, their gap, natural and regulation fertility is applied using micro econometric models such as dichotomous model, count data model and duration model. It attests that Tunisian household behaviour is shaped by quantity-quality children trade-off and also highlights economic and sociocultural fertility determinants. These analyses give out policies matching family fertility behaviour in the development process.

Cette thèse étudie la relation de long terme entre égalité hommes-femmes et croissance économique. Plus particulièrement, elle vise à comprendre et à expliquer les mécanismes et les déterminants sous-jacents au processus de développement qui a permis aux économies de sortir d’une longue période de stagnation à un état de croissance économique durable. L’objectif scientifique est de vérifier la validité de l’hypothèse que l’amélioration de l’égalité entre hommes et femmes est un ingrédient clef de la transition démographique et du processus de développement socio- économique. L’analyse quantitative et empirique de cette relation est basée sur une approche cliométrique. Cette approche consiste à produire une projection quantitative des sciences sociales dans le passé, structurée par la théorie économique et informée par les méthodes statistiques et économétriques. L’innovation projetée est de construire un pont entre les modèles théoriques de la croissance et l’histoire économique. Cette nouvelle ligne de recherche entre empirisme pur et théorie abstraite permet d’interpréter les questions économiques en tenant compte du passé et, ce faisant, de comprendre plus en profondeur les processus historiques économiques et sociaux. / This thesis studies the long-run relationship between gender equality and economic growth. In particular, it aims at understanding and explaining the mechanisms and determinants underpinning the development process which allowed economies to move out of a long period of stagnation into a state of sustainable economic growth. The scientific objective is to check the validity of the central hypothesis that improving equality between men and women is a key ingredient of the demographic transition and of the process of socio-economic development. Quantitative and empirical analysis of this relationship is based on a renewed cliometric approach. Hence we aim at producing a quantitative projection of social sciences in the past, structured by economic theory, mathematical modeling, and informed by statistical and econometric methods. The projected innovation is to build a bridge between the theoretical models of growth and economic history. This new line of research between pure empiricism and abstract theory allows to interpret economic issues taking into account the past and in so doing, to understand more deeply the economic and social historical processes.

Tempo and quantum of population ageing in the world: development opportunities and challenges Abstract This diploma thesis aims to identify and describe the differentiation of the scale and dynamics of the ageing process in the world at sub-regional level and to develop a typology of those sub-regions and selected countries in terms of mentioned characteristics of population ageing. Furthermore, relatively homogenous groups of countries have been distinguished based on the cluster analysis of social conditions in the context of ageing in order to access their readiness to face further development of the phenomenon. Major development opportunities and imminent challenges associated with population ageing have been evaluated in the end. The results show that the timing and extent of age structure changes are very closely related. Countries that have undergone longer demographic transitions experienced longer demographic windows of opportunity that allowed them to reap the benefits of demographic dividends and to develop better social conditions as a result. Rapidly ageing societies from developing regions, on the contrary, have less time and resources to counteract the challenges resulting from the demographic changes where timely measures and policies have to be prioritized by policymakers. Keywords:...

The main subject of this thesis is examining the current state of marital behavior of young people in the Czech Republic and it's development after 1989, focusing on the growing number of single households and the related phenomenon singles. The work is based on the first part of the empirical data, particularly demographic data on family behavior. It highlights the impact of the second demographic transition on the current state of family life of young people and indicates a historical development of nuptality and fertility. In the practical part the focus is mainly on the analysis of the fundamental characteristics of family behavior after 1989. An integral part of my work is the research on the topic.

The topic of this thesis is the issue of pension systems, which are an integral part of every advanced society. The aim of this thesis is to provide an insight into the basics of the issue, analyze selected pension systems and to assess the possibility of introduction similar pension systems in other countries. In the theoretical part of the thesis first presents basic aspects of the development of approach to finance consumption in old age, possible forms of pension systems, the risks that are associated with them, as well as several models of pension system that are currently enforced. In the analytical part pension systems of Australia, Denmark, Canada, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland are first specified separately and subsequently, on the basis of criteria coverage rate, financial sustainability and adequacy of pensions, subjected to comparative analysis. The result of the analysis is the determination of the Dutch pension system as a system that has, although not in all analyzed areas, the relatively best results of functioning. However, the widespread introduction of this system definitely not recommended, due to given economic differences in various countries, which are described in the conclusion of this thesis. Nevertheless of each pension system we can choose a positive approaches to solving problems on which we can build in the future.