In a deregulated electricity market, offering the appropriate amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price is of paramount importance. The forecasting of electricity market clearing price (MCP) is a prediction of future electricity price based on given forecast of electricity demand, temperature, sunshine, fuel cost, precipitation and other related factors. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity MCP forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. The mid-term electricity MCP forecasting focuses electricity MCP on a time frame from one month to six months. Developing mid-term electricity MCP forecasting is essential for mid-term planning and decision making, such as generation plant expansion and maintenance schedule, reallocation of resources, bilateral contracts and hedging strategies. Six mid-term electricity MCP forecasting models are proposed and compared in this thesis: 1) a single support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model, 2) a single least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) forecasting model, 3) a hybrid SVM and auto-regression moving average with external input (ARMAX) forecasting model, 4) a hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX forecasting model, 5) a multiple SVM forecasting model and 6) a multiple LSSVM forecasting model. PJM interconnection data are used to test the proposed models. Cross-validation technique was used to optimize the control parameters and the selection of training data of the six proposed mid-term electricity MCP forecasting models. Three evaluation techniques, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square root error (MSRE), are used to analysis the system forecasting accuracy. According to the experimental results, the multiple SVM forecasting model worked the best among all six proposed forecasting models. The proposed multiple SVM based mid-term electricity MCP forecasting model contains a data classification module and a price forecasting module. The data classification module will first pre-process the input data into corresponding price zones and then the forecasting module will forecast the electricity price in four parallel designed SVMs. This proposed model can best improve the forecasting accuracy on both peak prices and overall system compared with other 5 forecasting models proposed in this thesis.

Operation of the electricity markets is subject to a number of strict and specific constraints such as continuous load-generation balance, security of supply, and generation technology related limitations. Contributions have been made to two important problems of the Electricity Markets, in the context of this study. In this study, Price Based Unit Commitment problem in the literature, which is a tool for the GENCO for operations planning, is extended considering the interdependencies between the Natural Gas (NG) and Electricity infrastructures and the uncertainty of Wind Power generation. The effect of the NG infrastructure physical limitations is considered via linearized NG transmission system equations, and the Wind energy sources and conventional generation resource uncertainties are simulated by Monte-Carlo simulations. The contribution of the forward energy Bilateral Contracts (BC), as a financial risk hedging tool is also included by modeling these in the proposed PBUC framework. In the case studies , it is observed that a GENCO could prevent its financial losses due to NG interruptions, by depositing only a portion of the midterm interrupted NG in the storage facilities. The Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) Problem is widely accepted tool in the industry which models the market clearing process. This study integrates two novelties to the SCUC problem / &bull / A discrete demand response model to consider active participation of the consumers, &bull / A hybrid deterministic/stochastic contingency model to represent the N-1 contingencies together with the uncertainties related with the wind power generation and system load. It is observed that the curtailment of available wind power capacity would enable the TSO to take corrective actions against occurrence of the contingencies and realization of the uncertainties in the most possible economical manner.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.

Transmission pricing and congestion management are two important aspects of modern power sectors working under a deregulated environment or moving towards a deregulated system (open access) from a regulated environment. The transformation of power sector for open access environment with the participation of private sector and potential power suppliers under the regime of trading electricity as a commodity is aimed at overcoming some of the limitations faced by the vertically integrated system. It is believed that this transformation will bring in new technologies, efficient and alternative sources of power which are greener, self sustainable and competitive. There is ever increasing demand for electrical power due to the changing life style of human beings fueled by modernization and growth. Augmentation of existing capacity, siting of new power plants, and a search for alternate viable sources of energy that have lesser impact on environment are being taken up. With the integration of power plants into the grid depending upon the type, loca- tion and technology used, the cost of energy production also differs. In interconnected networks, power can flow from one point to other point in infinite number of possible paths which is decided by the circuit parameters, operating conditions, topology of network and the connected loads. The transmission facility provided for power transfer has to recover the charges from the entities present in the network based on the extent of utilization. Since power transmission losses account for nearly 4 to 8% of the total generation, this has to be accounted for and shared properly among the entities depending upon the connected generation/load. In this context, this thesis aims to evaluate the shortcomings of existing tracing methods and proposes a tracing method based upon the actual operating conditions of the network taking into account the network parameters, voltage gradient among the connected buses and topology of the network as obtained by the online state estimator/load flow studies. The concept proposed is relatively simple and easy to implement in a given transactional period. The proposed method is compared against one of the existing tracing technique available in literature. Both active and reactive power tracing is handled at one go. The summation of partial contributions from all the sources in any given line of the system always matches with that of the respective base case ow. The AC power flow equations themselves are nonlinear in nature. Since the sum of respective partial flows in a given branch is always equal to the original ow, these are termed as virtual flows and the effect of nonlinearity is still unknown. The virtual flows in a given line are complex in nature and their complex sum is equal to the original complex power flows as in the base case. It is required to determine whether these are the true partial flows. To answer this, a DC equivalent of the original AC network is proposed and is called as the R - P equivalent model. This model consists of only the resistances as that of original network (the resistances of transformers and lines neglecting the series reactance and the shunt charging) only. The real power injections in a AC network i.e. sources into respective buses and loads (negative real power injections) are taken as injection measurements of this R P model and the bus voltages (purely real quantities) are estimated using the method of least squares. Complex quantities are absent in this model and only real terms which are either sums or differences are present. For this model, virtual flows are evaluated and it has been verified that the virtual real power contributions from sources are in near agreement with the original AC network. This implies that the virtual flows determined for the original network can be applied for day-to-day applications. An important feature of the virtual flows is that it is possible to identify counter ow components. Counter flow components are the transactions taking place in opposite direction to the net flow in that branch. If a particular source is produces counter flow in a given line, then it is in effect reducing congestion to that extent. This information is lacking in most of the existing techniques. Counter flows are useful in managing congestion. HVDC links are integrated with HVAC systems in order to transfer bulk power and for the additional advantages they offer. The incremental cost of a DC link is zero due to the closed loop control techniques implemented to maintain constant power transfer (excluding constant voltage or constant current control). Consequently, cost allocation to HVDC is still a problem. The proposed virtual power flow tracing method is extended to HVAC systems integrated with HVDC in order to determine the extent of utilization of a given link by the sources. Before evaluating the virtual contributions to the HVDC links, the steady state operating condition of the combined system is obtained by per-forming a sequential load flow. Congestion is one of the main aspects of a deregulated system, and is a result of several transactions taking place simultaneously through a given transmission facility. If congestion is managed by providing pricing signals for the transmission usage by the parties involved. It can also be due to the non-availability of transmission paths due to line outages as a result of contingencies. In such a case, generation active power redispatch is considered as a viable option in addition to other available controls such as phase shifters and UPFCs to streamline the transactions within the available corridors. The virtual power flow tracing technique proposed in the thesis is used as a guiding factor for managing congestions occurring due to transactions/contingencies to the possible extent. The utilization of a given line by the sources present in the network in terms of real power flow is thus obtained. These line utilization factors are called as T-coefficients and these are approximately constant for moderate increments in active power change from the sources. A simple fuzzy logic based decision system is proposed in order to obtain active power rescheduling from the sources for managing network congestions. In order to enhance the system stability after rescheduling, reactive power optimization has life systems to illustrate the proposed approaches. For secure operation of the network, the ideal proportion of active power schedule from the sources present in the network for a given load pattern is found from network [FLG] matrix. The elements of this matrix are used in the computation of static voltage stability index (L-index). This [FLG] matrix is obtained from the partitioned network YBUS matrix and gives the Relative Electrical Distance (RED) of each of the loads with respect to the sources present in the network. From this RED, the ideal proportion of real power to be drawn by a given load from different sources can be determined. This proportion of active power scheduling from sources is termed as Desired Proportion of Generation (DPG). If the generations are scheduled accordingly, the network operates with less angular separation among system buses (improved angular stability), improved voltage profiles and better voltage stability. Further, the partitioned K[GL] matrix reveals information about the relative proportion in which the loads should draw active power from the sources as per DPG which is irrespective of the present scheduling. Other partitioned [Y ′ GG] matrix is useful in finding the deviation of the present active power output from the sources with respect to the ideal schedule. Many regional power systems are interconnected to form large integrated grids for both technical and economic benefits. In such situations, Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) has to be undertaken along with augmentation of existing transmission facilities. Generation expansion at certain locations need new transmission networks which involves serious problems such as getting right-of-way and environmental clearance. An approach to find suitable generation expansion locations in different zones with least requirements of transmission network expansion has been attempted using the concept of RED. For the anticipated load growth, the capacity and siting generation facilities are identified on zonal basis. Using sample systems and real life systems, the validity of the proposed approach is demonstrated using performance criteria such as voltage stability, effect on line MVA loadings and real power losses.

Bakgrund: I en konkurrenskraftig miljö med föränderliga villkor krävs en tillämpning av sofistikerade styrverktyg inom ett företags ekonomistyrsystem. Verksamheten PostNord AB har i och med en bolagisering och avreglering genomgått en strukturomvandling men har fortfarande ett statligt uppdrag samtidigt som de konkurrerar med helt kommersiella företag. Problemdiskussion: PostNord AB får i dagsläget inte önskad effekt på styrning i verksamheten då det brister i förhållning till budgeten. Detta har utmynnat i en diskussion kring relationen mellan budget och prestationsmätning och dess styreffekter i organisationen. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att kartlägga PostNord ABs ekonomistyrsystem med särskilt fokus på budget och prestationsmätningar och dess styreffekter i organisationen. Vidare är syftet att ge rekommendationer på förändringar av dagens styrsystem, vilka kan ge en förbättrad styreffekt inom PostNord AB - Region Växjö. Metod: Studien innefattar en fallstudie som forskningsdesign. Insamlingen av empiriskt material har skett genom intervjuer, dokument och observationer. Intervjuerna har utförts semi-strukturerat och respondenturvalet har skett utifrån ett kedje- samt lämplighetsurval. Resultat: Problemområden beträffande ekonomistyrsystemets styreffekter har identifierats där förbättringsförslag rörarande företagets mest kritiska områden har rekommenderats. Dessa innefattar en nedtoning av budgeten till förmån för prestationsmätningar, mål kopplade till mått, ökad kommunikation mellan nivåerna samt förhöjd motivation genom ökat deltagande. Slutsats: Marknaden som PostNord AB verkar på kännetecknas av tämligen fasta spelregler med en likartad infrastruktur för distribution. Avgörandet för företagets framgång beror på hur det på mest fördelaktiga sätt kan anpassa och maximera sin verksamhet efter rådande villkor. Detta talar för en ökad användning av processinriktade prestationsmätningar. / Background: In a competitive environment with changing conditions the use of sophisticated management tool are required within a company’s management control system. The company Post Nord AB has, with corporatisation and deregulation undergone a structural change, but still has a state-mandated while competing with fully commercial enterprises. Problems Discussion: Post Nord AB is in the current situation not receiving the desired effect on the control of the business when because of imperfections in the attitude to the budget. This has led to a discussion on the relationship between budget and performance measurement and its control effects in the organization. Purpose: The aim of the study is to map Post Nord AB’s management control system with particular focus on the budget and performance measurements and its control effects in the organization. A further purpose is to provide recommendations on changes to the current control system, which can enhance the control effect in Post Nord AB - Region Växjö. Method: The study includes a case study research design. The collection of empirical data were collected through interviews, documents and observations. The interviews were conducted semi- structured and the selection were based on a chain and suitability selection. Results: Issues concerning control effects of the management control system have been identified and improvement proposals have been recommended. These include a dimming of the budget in favor of performance measurements, goals related to measurement, increased communication between levels and enhanced motivation through increased participation. Conclusion: PostNord AB acts on a market characterized by fairly fixed rules with a similar distribution infrastructure. The essential for the company’s success depends on how it in most beneficial ways can customize and maximize their business to the prevailing conditions. This suggests an increased use of process-oriented performance measurements.

The transition of the power sector from vertically integrated utility (VIU) to deregulated system has resulted in reshaping of generation, transmission and distribution components. Some of the objectives of restructuring are to ensure a secure and reliable supply of electricity, encourage competition in all segments, sustain future economic and technological growth, etc. There are many challenges that arise in fulfilling these objectives. The thesis addresses some of them related to planning and operational aspects of real and reactive power, covering the following areas: Real power tracing, loss allocation and pricing Reactive power tracing, loss allocation and pricing Power system generation expansion planning Power transfer capability in interregional grids Voltage stability enhancement by improving reactive power margins In deregulated power systems, it has become important to identify the generation and transmission entities responsible in meeting loads. This is done by tracing the power flows through the transmission network. Power tracing is required to assess the extent of network usage by the participants, so as to allocate the transmission losses and charges. Many loss allocation methods are presented in the literature. The loss allocation method implemented in this thesis is a circuit based method. For obtaining the generators contribution towards meeting system loads and transmission losses, an approach of relative electrical distance (RED) between the generation and the load buses, is presented. The method is used to trace both real and reactive power flows. In the case of real power, the generators are the only sources and loads are the only sinks. However, reactive sources and sinks are distributed all along the transmission system. The reactive power sources considered are generators, switchable VAR sources (shunt capacitor banks) and line charging susceptances; and the reactive sinks are shunt reactors and reactive inductive loads. While tracing their flows the actual sources or sinks are to be identified which is obtained after adding reactive injections and absorptions at each bus. If the net value is absorbing, the bus is a reactive sink and if the net value is injecting, the bus is a reactive source. The transmission line charge susceptances contribution to the system’s reactive flows; and its aid extended in reducing the reactive generation at the generator buses is also discussed. A reactive power optimization technique is applied to optimally adjust the reactive controller settings of transformer taps, generator excitations and switched capacitors, so that the available reactive resources can be fully utilized. In the thesis, a methodology for evaluation of real and reactive power load and loss sharing proportions; and cost allocation towards transmission utilization is presented. Due to the ever growing increase in demands; on one hand the existing transmission networks are getting overloaded at some locations and on the other hand, the available generation is becoming insufficient to cater to the additional demand. To handle this problem, generation and transmission expansions become inevitable. Hence, additional public sector units or independent power producers and transmission providers are to be brought in. However in a restructured system, generally there is no central planning for new generation capacity or transmission additions. The reason being, these investments need huge capital and long period of commitment. While making a generation investment decision, expectations concerning future electricity demand, spot market prices, variations of regulatory policies, etc., are the major considerations. The locations, capacities and timing of new power plants are basically at the generation companies’ own discretion. Also, generation companies do not have any obligation to ensure sufficient supply of electricity to meet present and future requirements. Hence, it is a matter of concern as to how adequate generation capacity can be secured in the long run. Optimal siting and sizing of these new generation locations is also an issue of concern. In this thesis a new index called as ‘Tindex’ is proposed, which identifies prospective new generation expansion locations. The index is formulated based on the transmission network information, and it helps in identifying the most suitable new generation expansion locations. To implement this methodology each of the load bus is treated as a generation bus, one at a time, and the maximum generation capacity that can be installed at the location is computed from the approach. This method ensures minimum transmission expansion. Interconnected power systems help in exchanging power from one area to other areas at times of power deficiency in their own area. To enable this, their tieline capability to transfer power has to be sufficient, which is determined using total transfer capability (TTC) computation. TTC is an important index in power markets with large volume of interarea power exchanges and wheeling transactions taking place on an hourly basis. In the thesis, the total transfer capability (TTC) of interconnected tielines, under normal and contingency conditions is evaluated. The contingency cases evaluated are single line contingency, tieline contingency and generator outage. The most critical lines in each zone are identified using Fuzzy set theory. Unified power flow controller (UPFC), a flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) device is incorporated to improve the power transfers under contingency conditions. The best locations for UPFC placement are identified by analysing the power flow results obtained after considering the contingencies. For each of the normal and contingency cases, a base case and a limiting case are formed and the TTC is evaluated. Limiting case is formed by increasing the load in small steps till a point after which bus voltages or line loadings start to violate their stability constraints. To improve the system conditions in the limiting case, reactive power optimization and UPFC installation is carried out. The results reflect the improvement in system conditions and total transfer capability margins. Availability of sufficient generator reactive margins is very essential to ensure system’s voltage stability, without which even minor disturbances may lead to catastrophe. The amount of reactive power margin available in a system determines its proximity to voltage instability under normal and emergency conditions. One way of improving the reactive margin of a synchronous generator, is to reduce the real power generation within its MVA ratings. However this real power reduction will affect the real power contract agreements formed while power trading. The real power contracts are not disturbed and the reactive power margins are improved by optimally adjusting the other available reactive controllers, namely, generator exciter, transformer taps and shunt compensators. To have further control on the reactive flows, UPFC device is incorporated at appropriate locations. The thesis discusses how reactive margins are computed and subsequently improved using a reactive power optimization technique and UPFC. Case studies are carried out on typical sample 6bus, 8bus, 10bus, 16bus, 20bus, IEEE 30bus, IEEE 39bus systems, and reallife equivalents of Indian southern grid 24bus, 72bus, 87bus and 205bus systems to illustrate the proposed approaches.