The cell cycle of budding yeast is controlled by a complex chemically reacting network of a large group of species, including mRNAs and proteins. Many mathematical models have been proposed to unravel its molecular mechanism. However, it is hard for people with less training to visually interpret the dynamics from the simulation results of these models. In this thesis, we use the visualization toolkit D3 and jQuery to design a web-based interface and help users to visualize the cell cycle simulation results. It is essentially a website where the proliferation of the wild-type and mutant cells can be visualized as dynamical animation. With the help of this visualization tool, we can easily and intuitively see many key steps in the budding yeast cell cycle procedure, such as bud emergence, DNA synthesis, mitosis, cell division, and the current populations of species. / Master of Science / The cell cycle of budding yeast is controlled by a complex chemically reacting network. Many mathematical models have been proposed to unravel its molecular mechanism. However, it is hard to visually interpret the dynamics from the simulation results of these models. In this thesis, we use the visualization toolkit D3 and jQuery to design a web-based interface and help users to visualize the cell cycle simulation results. It is essentially a webpage where the proliferation of the wild-type and mutant cells can be visualized as dynamical animation.

Estudamos, através de modelagem matemática, aspectos estacionários, espaciais e temporais relacionados à propagação e controle de doenças infecciosas de transmissão direta por contato pessoa-a-pessoa. Elaboramos modelos matemáticos determinísticos fundamentados no princípio de ação de massas em Epidemiologia, levando em consideração a simetria no número de contatos entre suscetíveis e infectados, o que nos permitiu estimar a taxa per capita de contatos potencialmente infectantes e, por conseguinte, a força de infecção e os possíveis efeitos de diferentes programas de vacinação. O desenvolvimento do modelo de estado estacionário foi feito com base em dados sorológicos de rubéola (Azevedo Neto 1992) para uma população que ainda não havia sido imunizada por meio de vacinação. Analisamos, então, o efeito de três diferentes esquemas de vacinação para a rubéola, nos seguintes intervalos de idade: de 1 a 2 anos, de 7 a 8 anos e de 14 a 15 anos. A incerteza estatística na idade média de infecção foi estimada com o auxílio do método de Monte Carlo e tal metodologia foi aplicada a dados de varicela e hepatite A. Estudamos também o aspecto espacial, com a inclusão da variável distância na formulação de um modelo SIR e análise da influência do alcance de interação entre indivíduos. E, através do estudo da força de infecção em função da idade e do tempo, pudemos analisar, de modo qualitativo, diferentes cenários na evolução temporal de uma doença infecciosa. / We have studied, based on mathematical modelling, stationary, spatial and temporal features related to the propagation and control of directly transmitted infectious diseases through person-to-person contact. We have developed deterministic mathematical models founded on the mass-action principle of Epidemiology, taking into account the symmetry of contacts among susceptible and infectious individuals. Such symmetry enabled us to estimate the potentially infective per capita contact rate and, therefore, the force of infection and the possible effects of different vaccination programmes. The steady state modelling has been based on rubella serological data of a non-immunized population (Azevedo Neto 1992) and we have analysed three different vaccination schemes against rubella in the following age intervals: from 1 to 2 years of age, from 7 to 8 years of age, and from 14 to 15 years of age. The serological data variability has been considered in the estimation of the statistical uncertainty of the average age at infection by means of the Monte Carlo method and we have applied this methodology to varicella and hepatitis A data. The spatial feature in a SIR model has been studied with the analysis of the influence of the interaction range among individuals. We have also studied the force of infection as a function of age and time and we have analysed, in a qualitative way, different situations in the time evolution of an infectious disease.

A presente dissertação é composta por três manuscritos originais. O objetivo do estudo (1) foi comparar o desempenho no chute em jogadores de futebol treinados sub-9 até sub-20. Jovens jogadores brasileiros (N = 366) foram avaliados por cinemática 3-D (300 Hz) a fim de mensurar a velocidade da bola, velocidade do pé, razão velocidade bola/pé, comprimento do último passo e distância entre pé de suporte e bola. Um procedimento 2-D (60 Hz) foi conduzido para calcular a acurácia dos chutes. A velocidade da bola aumentou em 103% do sub-11 (48,54±8,31 km/h) até sub-20 (98,74±16,35 km/h). Em contraste a velocidade do pé exibiu aumento de 59% do sub-11 (49,08±5,16 km/h) até sub-20 (78,24±9,49 km/h). Isso foi em decorrência da melhora na qualidade de impacto pé-bola (razão velocidade da bola/pé: sub-11: 0,99±0,13; sub-20: 1,26±0,11 u.a.) (p < 0,001). Erro médio radial e acurácia parecem prejudicados durante o surto de velocidade do crescimento (sub-13-sub-15). Conclui-se que parâmetros Biomecânicos de desempenho chutando apresentam desenvolvimento diferenciado. O objetivo do estudo (2) foi investigar o desempenho chutando (N = 105 selecionados) no sub-11 até sub-20 com foco em velocidades lineares, deslocamento angular e velocidade angular articular do membro inferior. Verificou-se as possíveis diferenças entre idades, status jogando (titulares, reservas e não relacionados) e a influência da maturidade (iPVC) em parâmetros chutando. Pequenos ganhos em termos de velocidade e poucas alterações angulares ocorreram nos mais jovens (sub-11 até sub-13). Na idade sub-15 ocorrem os maiores aumentos de velocidades e transferência próximo-distal. Esse é um período crítico em que o desempenho chutando discriminou o status de jogo. O iPVC não influenciou o desempenho. Conclui-se que a taxa de desenvolvimento do desempenho chutando difere entre sub-11 até sub-20 em jogadores selecionados. O objetivo do estudo 3 foi examinar o desempenho de corrida (ex. distância total percorrida, faixas de velocidade atingidas), relacionado a habilidades técnicas (ex. envolvimento com bola, passes, toques na bola, toques/posse, duelos e chutes) e dinâmicas de movimentos táticos coletivos (área da equipe, espalhamento e frequências medianas) no futebol, desde crianças sub-11 até o profissional (N = 120) durante jogos oficiais (N = 12; Campeonato Paulista de Futebol-FPF). Enquanto a velocidade média, e tática tendem a estabilizar os aumentos a partir do sub-15 (ex. sub-15 > sub-13 > sub-11), velocidade máxima (PRO > sub-17 > sub-15, sub-13, sub-11) e percentual de atividades em alta intensidade (sub-20 > PRO, sub-17 > sub-15 > sub-13 > sub-11) exibem ganhos contínuos. Frequências medianas foram maiores nos mais jovens (sub-13, sub-15, sub- 17 > sub-20, PRO), enquanto o percentual de passes completados foi maior nos mais velhos (PRO > sub-17, sub-15 > sub-13, sub-11). Conclui-se que os grupos de idade sub-11 até profissional apresentam diferentes perfis de desempenho de corrida, distribuição dos jogadores em campo, dinâmica de movimentos coletivos e habilidades técnicas, e que o desenvolvimento desses componentes é diferenciado. Treinadores devem estar cientes dos valores de referência apresentados, para selecionar os conteúdos de treino como a intensidade e o volume, específicos para cada grupo de idade. / This master degree thesis is composed by three original manuscripts. The study 1 aimed to compare the kicking performance in trained soccer players aged U9 to U20. Brazilian young players (N = 366) were evaluated by 3-D kinematics (300 Hz) in order to assess ball speed, foot speed, ratio ball/foot speeds, last stride length and distance between support foot and ball. Two-dimensional procedure (60 Hz) was applied to calculate kicking accuracy. Ball speed increases 103% from U11 (48.54±8.31 km/h) to U20 (98.74±16.35 km/h). In contrast, foot speed exhibited increases of 59% from U11 (49.08±5.16 km/h) o U20 (78.24±9.49 km/h). This is achieved due the improvement on the quality of foot-ball impact (ratio ball/foot speeds U11: 0.99±0.13; U20: 1.26±0.11 a.u.) (p < 0,001). Mean radial error and accuracy appears impaired during the growth spurt (U13-U15). In conclusion, Biomechanical parameters of kicking performance have different developmental characteristics. The study 2 investigated the kicking performance (N = 105 selected players) of U11 to U20 age-groups, focused in linear velocities, angular joint displacement and angular joint velocities of the dominant lower limb. Possible differences between groups were assessed. Within each group, influence of playing status (starters, non-starters and substitutes without participation), and peak height velocity (PHV) index on kicking performance was also examined. Lower changes in terms of speeds angular adjustments occur between U11 and U13. During U15 the greater increases was verified, for both velocities and proximal-distal transference, due to several angular adjustments. Also, this is a critical phase to ensure the continuity of players competing in soccer, in which kicking performance discriminate playing status, favoring starters. PHV did not influenced performance parameters in all age-groups. It was concluded that the development rate is not constant in selected players from U11 to U20. The aim of the study 3 was to evaluate performances regarding match-running (e.g. total distance covered, and percentage at various speed zones), skill-related (e.g. involvements with the ball, passes, ball touches, touches per possession, duels and kicks) and also dynamics of collective movements across the pitch (team surface area, spread and median frequencies of the signal), simultaneously, during official matches (N = 12, São Paulo First Division Championship-FPF), in high-level Brazilian U11 to professional players (N = 120). It found that while mean speed and tactical index tends to stabilize the increases from U15 (e.g. U15 > U13 > U11), maximal sprinting speed (PRO > U17 > U15, U13, U11) and percentage of very high-intensity activities (U20 > PRO, U17 > U15 > U13 > U11) exhibit improvements continuously with the age. Median frequencies were greater in younger (U13, U15, U17 > U20, PRO), while successful passes percentage were greater in older (PRO > U17, U15 > U13, U11). In conclusion, U11 to professional age-groups have different activity profiles (running, tactical and skill-related), and the development of these components are not equal. Coaches should be aware of the reference values presented in order to select training content into a periodization similar to a real competition match (e.g. volume and intensity) specific for each age-group.

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria(ARB) is causing increased health risk and cost to society. Mathematical models have been developed to study the transmission of resistant bacteria and the efficacy of preventive measures to slow its spread within a hospital setting. The majority of these models have assumed a constant total hospital population with the admission and discharge rates being equal throughout the duration. But a typical hospital population varies from day to day and season to season. In this thesis, we apply variable admission and discharge daily rates to existing deterministic and stochastic models which examine the transmission of single and dual resistant bacteria. We perform stability and equilibrium analyses as well as a sensitivity analysis on the resulting model..

Estudamos, através de modelagem matemática, aspectos estacionários, espaciais e temporais relacionados à propagação e controle de doenças infecciosas de transmissão direta por contato pessoa-a-pessoa. Elaboramos modelos matemáticos determinísticos fundamentados no princípio de ação de massas em Epidemiologia, levando em consideração a simetria no número de contatos entre suscetíveis e infectados, o que nos permitiu estimar a taxa per capita de contatos potencialmente infectantes e, por conseguinte, a força de infecção e os possíveis efeitos de diferentes programas de vacinação. O desenvolvimento do modelo de estado estacionário foi feito com base em dados sorológicos de rubéola (Azevedo Neto 1992) para uma população que ainda não havia sido imunizada por meio de vacinação. Analisamos, então, o efeito de três diferentes esquemas de vacinação para a rubéola, nos seguintes intervalos de idade: de 1 a 2 anos, de 7 a 8 anos e de 14 a 15 anos. A incerteza estatística na idade média de infecção foi estimada com o auxílio do método de Monte Carlo e tal metodologia foi aplicada a dados de varicela e hepatite A. Estudamos também o aspecto espacial, com a inclusão da variável distância na formulação de um modelo SIR e análise da influência do alcance de interação entre indivíduos. E, através do estudo da força de infecção em função da idade e do tempo, pudemos analisar, de modo qualitativo, diferentes cenários na evolução temporal de uma doença infecciosa. / We have studied, based on mathematical modelling, stationary, spatial and temporal features related to the propagation and control of directly transmitted infectious diseases through person-to-person contact. We have developed deterministic mathematical models founded on the mass-action principle of Epidemiology, taking into account the symmetry of contacts among susceptible and infectious individuals. Such symmetry enabled us to estimate the potentially infective per capita contact rate and, therefore, the force of infection and the possible effects of different vaccination programmes. The steady state modelling has been based on rubella serological data of a non-immunized population (Azevedo Neto 1992) and we have analysed three different vaccination schemes against rubella in the following age intervals: from 1 to 2 years of age, from 7 to 8 years of age, and from 14 to 15 years of age. The serological data variability has been considered in the estimation of the statistical uncertainty of the average age at infection by means of the Monte Carlo method and we have applied this methodology to varicella and hepatitis A data. The spatial feature in a SIR model has been studied with the analysis of the influence of the interaction range among individuals. We have also studied the force of infection as a function of age and time and we have analysed, in a qualitative way, different situations in the time evolution of an infectious disease.

A presente dissertação é composta por três manuscritos originais. O objetivo do estudo (1) foi comparar o desempenho no chute em jogadores de futebol treinados sub-9 até sub-20. Jovens jogadores brasileiros (N = 366) foram avaliados por cinemática 3-D (300 Hz) a fim de mensurar a velocidade da bola, velocidade do pé, razão velocidade bola/pé, comprimento do último passo e distância entre pé de suporte e bola. Um procedimento 2-D (60 Hz) foi conduzido para calcular a acurácia dos chutes. A velocidade da bola aumentou em 103% do sub-11 (48,54±8,31 km/h) até sub-20 (98,74±16,35 km/h). Em contraste a velocidade do pé exibiu aumento de 59% do sub-11 (49,08±5,16 km/h) até sub-20 (78,24±9,49 km/h). Isso foi em decorrência da melhora na qualidade de impacto pé-bola (razão velocidade da bola/pé: sub-11: 0,99±0,13; sub-20: 1,26±0,11 u.a.) (p < 0,001). Erro médio radial e acurácia parecem prejudicados durante o surto de velocidade do crescimento (sub-13-sub-15). Conclui-se que parâmetros Biomecânicos de desempenho chutando apresentam desenvolvimento diferenciado. O objetivo do estudo (2) foi investigar o desempenho chutando (N = 105 selecionados) no sub-11 até sub-20 com foco em velocidades lineares, deslocamento angular e velocidade angular articular do membro inferior. Verificou-se as possíveis diferenças entre idades, status jogando (titulares, reservas e não relacionados) e a influência da maturidade (iPVC) em parâmetros chutando. Pequenos ganhos em termos de velocidade e poucas alterações angulares ocorreram nos mais jovens (sub-11 até sub-13). Na idade sub-15 ocorrem os maiores aumentos de velocidades e transferência próximo-distal. Esse é um período crítico em que o desempenho chutando discriminou o status de jogo. O iPVC não influenciou o desempenho. Conclui-se que a taxa de desenvolvimento do desempenho chutando difere entre sub-11 até sub-20 em jogadores selecionados. O objetivo do estudo 3 foi examinar o desempenho de corrida (ex. distância total percorrida, faixas de velocidade atingidas), relacionado a habilidades técnicas (ex. envolvimento com bola, passes, toques na bola, toques/posse, duelos e chutes) e dinâmicas de movimentos táticos coletivos (área da equipe, espalhamento e frequências medianas) no futebol, desde crianças sub-11 até o profissional (N = 120) durante jogos oficiais (N = 12; Campeonato Paulista de Futebol-FPF). Enquanto a velocidade média, e tática tendem a estabilizar os aumentos a partir do sub-15 (ex. sub-15 > sub-13 > sub-11), velocidade máxima (PRO > sub-17 > sub-15, sub-13, sub-11) e percentual de atividades em alta intensidade (sub-20 > PRO, sub-17 > sub-15 > sub-13 > sub-11) exibem ganhos contínuos. Frequências medianas foram maiores nos mais jovens (sub-13, sub-15, sub- 17 > sub-20, PRO), enquanto o percentual de passes completados foi maior nos mais velhos (PRO > sub-17, sub-15 > sub-13, sub-11). Conclui-se que os grupos de idade sub-11 até profissional apresentam diferentes perfis de desempenho de corrida, distribuição dos jogadores em campo, dinâmica de movimentos coletivos e habilidades técnicas, e que o desenvolvimento desses componentes é diferenciado. Treinadores devem estar cientes dos valores de referência apresentados, para selecionar os conteúdos de treino como a intensidade e o volume, específicos para cada grupo de idade. / This master degree thesis is composed by three original manuscripts. The study 1 aimed to compare the kicking performance in trained soccer players aged U9 to U20. Brazilian young players (N = 366) were evaluated by 3-D kinematics (300 Hz) in order to assess ball speed, foot speed, ratio ball/foot speeds, last stride length and distance between support foot and ball. Two-dimensional procedure (60 Hz) was applied to calculate kicking accuracy. Ball speed increases 103% from U11 (48.54±8.31 km/h) to U20 (98.74±16.35 km/h). In contrast, foot speed exhibited increases of 59% from U11 (49.08±5.16 km/h) o U20 (78.24±9.49 km/h). This is achieved due the improvement on the quality of foot-ball impact (ratio ball/foot speeds U11: 0.99±0.13; U20: 1.26±0.11 a.u.) (p < 0,001). Mean radial error and accuracy appears impaired during the growth spurt (U13-U15). In conclusion, Biomechanical parameters of kicking performance have different developmental characteristics. The study 2 investigated the kicking performance (N = 105 selected players) of U11 to U20 age-groups, focused in linear velocities, angular joint displacement and angular joint velocities of the dominant lower limb. Possible differences between groups were assessed. Within each group, influence of playing status (starters, non-starters and substitutes without participation), and peak height velocity (PHV) index on kicking performance was also examined. Lower changes in terms of speeds angular adjustments occur between U11 and U13. During U15 the greater increases was verified, for both velocities and proximal-distal transference, due to several angular adjustments. Also, this is a critical phase to ensure the continuity of players competing in soccer, in which kicking performance discriminate playing status, favoring starters. PHV did not influenced performance parameters in all age-groups. It was concluded that the development rate is not constant in selected players from U11 to U20. The aim of the study 3 was to evaluate performances regarding match-running (e.g. total distance covered, and percentage at various speed zones), skill-related (e.g. involvements with the ball, passes, ball touches, touches per possession, duels and kicks) and also dynamics of collective movements across the pitch (team surface area, spread and median frequencies of the signal), simultaneously, during official matches (N = 12, São Paulo First Division Championship-FPF), in high-level Brazilian U11 to professional players (N = 120). It found that while mean speed and tactical index tends to stabilize the increases from U15 (e.g. U15 > U13 > U11), maximal sprinting speed (PRO > U17 > U15, U13, U11) and percentage of very high-intensity activities (U20 > PRO, U17 > U15 > U13 > U11) exhibit improvements continuously with the age. Median frequencies were greater in younger (U13, U15, U17 > U20, PRO), while successful passes percentage were greater in older (PRO > U17, U15 > U13, U11). In conclusion, U11 to professional age-groups have different activity profiles (running, tactical and skill-related), and the development of these components are not equal. Coaches should be aware of the reference values presented in order to select training content into a periodization similar to a real competition match (e.g. volume and intensity) specific for each age-group.

Les infections à Papillomavirus Humain (HPV) sont des infections sexuellement transmissibles très fréquentes. La persistance de ces infections est un facteur causal du cancer du col de l’utérus et est aussi à l’origine d’autres cancers de la zone ano-génitale et de verrues génitales chez les femmes et chez les hommes. Depuis l’introduction de deux vaccins bivalent et quadrivalent permettant de prévenir certains types d’HPV, de nombreux modèles mathématiques ont été développés afin d’estimer l’impact potentiel de différentes stratégies de vaccination. L’objectif de ce travail de thèse a été d’estimer l’impact potentiel de la vaccination en France sur l’incidence de certains cancers liés à l’HPV, notamment le cancer du col de l’utérus et le cancer anal chez les femmes françaises ; ainsi que sur la prévalence des infections à HPV 6/11/16/18. Différents modèles dynamiques de type déterministe ont été développés. Ils sont représentés par des systèmes d’équations différentielles ordinaires. Une étude théorique du comportement asymptotique d’un premier modèle comportant peu de strates a été réalisée. Le nombre de reproduction de base R0 et le nombre de reproduction avec vaccination Rv ont été estimés. Des modèles plus complexes ont intégré une structure d’âge et de comportement sexuel. Les modélisations réalisées permettent de conclure à l’impact important de la vaccination sur la prévalence des infections à HPV et sur l’incidence des cancers du col de l’utérus et de la zone anale chez les femmes françaises dans un délai de quelques décennies, si l’on prend en compte les taux de vaccination observés en France au début de la campagne de vaccination / Human Papillomavirus infection (HPV) is the most frequent sexually transmitted disease. Epidemiological studies have established a causal relationship between HPV infections and occurence of cervical cancer. These infections have also been incriminated in anogenital cancers and anogenital warts among women and men. Since the introduction of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines which offer protection against some HPV genotypes, many mathematical models have been developed in order to assess the potential impact of vaccine strategies. The aim of this thesis work was to assess the potential impact of HPV vaccination in France on the incidence of some cancers linked with HPV, particularly cervical cancer and anal cancer in French women, and on the prevalence of HPV 6/11/16/18 infections. Different deterministic dynamic models have been developped. They are represented by systems of ordinary differential equations. A theoretical analysis of the asymptotic behavior for a first model with few strata is realized. The basic reproduction number R0 and the vaccinated reproduction number Rv are assessed. More complex models taking into account age and sexual behavior have been developed. Using vaccination rates observed in France at the launch of the vaccination campaign, our modeling shows the large impact of vaccination on HPV prevalences, on cervical cancer and anal cancer incidences among French women within a few decades

In the past, transportation related economic analysis has considered agency related costs only. However, transportation managers are moving towards more holistic economic analysis including road user and environmental costs and benefits. In particular, transportation air pollution is causing increasing harm to health and the environment. Transport managers are now considering related emissions in transport economical analyses, and have established strategies to help meet Kyoto Protocol targets, which specified a fifteen percent reduction in Canada's emissions related to 1990 levels within 2008-2012.<p>The objectives of this research are to model heavy vehicle emissions using a emissions computer model which is able to assess various transport applications, and help improve holistic economic transport modeling. Two case studies were evaluated with the model developed.<p>Firstly, the environmental benefits of deploying weigh-in-motion systems at weigh stations to pre-sort heavy vehicles and reduce delays were assessed. The second case study evaluates alternative truck sizes and road upgrades within short heavy oilfield haul in Western Canada. <p>The model developed herein employed a deterministic framework from a sensitivity analysis across independent variables, which identified the most sensitive variables to primary field state conditions. The variables found to be significant included idling time for the weigh-in-motion case study, road stiffness and road grades for the short heavy haul oilfield case study.<p>According to this research, employing WIM at weigh stations would reduce annual Canadian transportation CO₂ emissions by nearly 228 kilo tonnes, or 1.04 percent of the Canadian Kyoto Protocol targets. Regarding direct fuel savings, WIM would save from 90 to 190 million litres of fuel annually, or between $59 and $190 million of direct operating costs.<p>Regarding the short heavy oil haul case study, increasing allowable heavy vehicle sizes while upgrading roads could decrease the annual emissions, the fuel consumption, and their associated costs by an average of 68 percent. Therefore, this could reduce each rural Saskatchewan municipality's annual CO₂ emissions from 13 to 26.7-kilo tonnes, which translates to 0.06 and 0.12 percent of the Canadian Kyoto Protocol targets or between $544,000 and $ 1.1 million annually. <p>Based on these results, the model demonstrates its functionality, and was successfully applied to two typical transportation field state applications. The model generated emissions savings results that appear to be realistic, in terms of potential Kyoto targets, as well as users cost reductions and fuel savings.

Optimal operation of plants is becoming more important due to increasing competition and small and changing profit margins for many products. One major reason has been the realization by industry that potentially large savings can be achieved by improving processes. Growth rates and profitability are much lower now, and international competition has increased greatly. The industry is faced with a need to manufacture quality products, while minimizing production costs and complying with a variety of safety and environmental regulations. As industry is confronted with the challenge of moving toward a clearer and more sustainable path of production, new technologies are needed to achieve industrial requirements. In this research, a new methodology is proposed to integrate so-called new technologies into existing processes. Research shows that the new technologies must be carefully selected and adopted to match the complex requirements of an existing process. The new proposed methodology is based on four major steps. If the improvement in the process is not sufficient to meet business needs, new technologies can be considered. Application of a new technology is always perceived as a potential threat; therefore, financial risk assessment and reliability risk analysis help alleviate risk of investment. An industrial case study from the literature was selected to implement and validate the new methodology. The case study is a planning problem to plan the layout or design of a fleet of generating stations owned and operated by the electric utility company, Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The impact of new technology integration on the performance of a power grid consisting of a variety of power generation plants was evaluated. The reduction in carbon emissions is projected to be accomplished through a combination of fuel switching, fuel balancing and switching to new technologies: carbon capture and sequestration. The fuel-balancing technique is used to decrease carbon emissions by adjusting the operation of the fleet of existing electricity-generating stations; the technique of fuel-switching involves switching from carbon-intensive fuels to less carbon-intensive fuels, for instance, switching from coal to natural gas; carbon capture and sequestration are applied to meet carbon emission reduction requirements. Existing power plants with existing technologies consist of fossil fuel stations, nuclear stations, hydroelectric stations, wind power stations, pulverized coal stations and a natural gas combined cycle, while hypothesized power plants with new technologies include solar stations, wind power stations, pulverized coal stations, a natural gas combined cycle and an integrated gasification combined cycle with and without capture and sequestration. The proposed methodology includes financial risk management in the framework of a two stage stochastic programme for energy planning under uncertainty: demands and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters, which have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. Thus, the expected value of the total costs of power generation is minimized, while the objective of carbon emission reduction is achieved. Furthermore, conditional value at risk (CVaR), a most preferable risk measure in the financial risk management, is incorporated within the framework of two-stage mixed integer programming. The mathematical formulation, which is called mean-risk model, is applied for the purpose of minimizing expected value. The process is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model, implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) and solved using the CPLEX algorithm, a commercial solver embedded in GAMS. The computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new methodology. The optimization model is applied to an existing Ontario Power Generation (OPG) fleet. Four planning scenarios are considered: a base load demand, a 1.0% growth rate in demand, a 5.0% growth rate in demand, a 10% growth rate in demand and a 20% growth rate in demand. A sensitivity analysis study is accomplished in order to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainties, such as uncertain factors on coal price and natural gas price. The optimization results demonstrate how to achieve the carbon emission mitigation goal with and without new technologies, while minimizing costs affects the configuration of the OPG fleet in terms of generation mix, capacity mix and optimal configuration. The selected new technologies are assessed in order to determine the risks of investment. Electricity costs with new technologies are lower than with the existing technologies. 60% CO2 reduction can be achieved at 20% growth in base load demand with new technologies. The total cost of electricity increases as we increase CO2 reduction or increase electricity demand. However, there is no significant change in CO2 reduction cost when CO2 reduction increases with new technologies. Total cost of electricity increases when fuel price increases. The total cost of electricity increases with financial risk management in order to lower the risk. Therefore, more electricity is produced for the industry to be on the safe side.

Optimal operation of plants is becoming more important due to increasing competition and small and changing profit margins for many products. One major reason has been the realization by industry that potentially large savings can be achieved by improving processes. Growth rates and profitability are much lower now, and international competition has increased greatly. The industry is faced with a need to manufacture quality products, while minimizing production costs and complying with a variety of safety and environmental regulations. As industry is confronted with the challenge of moving toward a clearer and more sustainable path of production, new technologies are needed to achieve industrial requirements. In this research, a new methodology is proposed to integrate so-called new technologies into existing processes. Research shows that the new technologies must be carefully selected and adopted to match the complex requirements of an existing process. The new proposed methodology is based on four major steps. If the improvement in the process is not sufficient to meet business needs, new technologies can be considered. Application of a new technology is always perceived as a potential threat; therefore, financial risk assessment and reliability risk analysis help alleviate risk of investment. An industrial case study from the literature was selected to implement and validate the new methodology. The case study is a planning problem to plan the layout or design of a fleet of generating stations owned and operated by the electric utility company, Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The impact of new technology integration on the performance of a power grid consisting of a variety of power generation plants was evaluated. The reduction in carbon emissions is projected to be accomplished through a combination of fuel switching, fuel balancing and switching to new technologies: carbon capture and sequestration. The fuel-balancing technique is used to decrease carbon emissions by adjusting the operation of the fleet of existing electricity-generating stations; the technique of fuel-switching involves switching from carbon-intensive fuels to less carbon-intensive fuels, for instance, switching from coal to natural gas; carbon capture and sequestration are applied to meet carbon emission reduction requirements. Existing power plants with existing technologies consist of fossil fuel stations, nuclear stations, hydroelectric stations, wind power stations, pulverized coal stations and a natural gas combined cycle, while hypothesized power plants with new technologies include solar stations, wind power stations, pulverized coal stations, a natural gas combined cycle and an integrated gasification combined cycle with and without capture and sequestration. The proposed methodology includes financial risk management in the framework of a two stage stochastic programme for energy planning under uncertainty: demands and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters, which have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. Thus, the expected value of the total costs of power generation is minimized, while the objective of carbon emission reduction is achieved. Furthermore, conditional value at risk (CVaR), a most preferable risk measure in the financial risk management, is incorporated within the framework of two-stage mixed integer programming. The mathematical formulation, which is called mean-risk model, is applied for the purpose of minimizing expected value. The process is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model, implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) and solved using the CPLEX algorithm, a commercial solver embedded in GAMS. The computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new methodology. The optimization model is applied to an existing Ontario Power Generation (OPG) fleet. Four planning scenarios are considered: a base load demand, a 1.0% growth rate in demand, a 5.0% growth rate in demand, a 10% growth rate in demand and a 20% growth rate in demand. A sensitivity analysis study is accomplished in order to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainties, such as uncertain factors on coal price and natural gas price. The optimization results demonstrate how to achieve the carbon emission mitigation goal with and without new technologies, while minimizing costs affects the configuration of the OPG fleet in terms of generation mix, capacity mix and optimal configuration. The selected new technologies are assessed in order to determine the risks of investment. Electricity costs with new technologies are lower than with the existing technologies. 60% CO2 reduction can be achieved at 20% growth in base load demand with new technologies. The total cost of electricity increases as we increase CO2 reduction or increase electricity demand. However, there is no significant change in CO2 reduction cost when CO2 reduction increases with new technologies. Total cost of electricity increases when fuel price increases. The total cost of electricity increases with financial risk management in order to lower the risk. Therefore, more electricity is produced for the industry to be on the safe side.