付記する学位プログラム名: グローバル生存学大学院連携プログラム / 京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22432号 / 工博第4693号 / 新制||工||1733(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 牧 紀男, 教授 神吉 紀世子, 教授 小林 広英 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

The aim of this research was to understand what elements should be considered in the construction of a pre-disaster recovery plan in order to move society towards sustainability during post-disaster recovery after a natural hazard event. A conceptual framework for Pre-disaster recovery planning (Pre-DRP) based on the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) was developed and critiqued by professionals in disaster management, resilience thinking, and sustainability in order to collect qualitative data to make the tool more rigorous and applicable to its intended audience. The revised framework, called the Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (Pre-DRP FSSD), includes a broad set of principles, planning strategies and guidelines, specifically designed to help communities become more resilient to disasters and move towards sustainability through Pre-DRP. As such, the Pre-DRP FSSD may help emergency planners at various levels of government to implement some of the strategic guidelines set out in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015.

The occurrence of devastating natural disasters in the past several years have prompted communities, responding organizations, and governments to seek ways to improve disaster preparedness capabilities locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. A holistic approach to design used in the aerospace and industrial engineering fields enables efficient allocation of resources through applied parametric changes within a particular design to improve performance metrics to selected standards. In this research, this methodology is applied to disaster preparedness, using a community's time to restoration after a disaster as the response metric. A review of the responses from Hurricane Katrina and the 2010 Haiti earthquake, among other prominent disasters, provides observations leading to some current capability benchmarking. A need for holistic assessment and planning exists for communities but the current response planning infrastructure lacks a standardized framework and standardized assessment metrics. Within the humanitarian logistics community, several different metrics exist, enabling quantification and measurement of a particular area's vulnerability. These metrics, combined with design and planning methodologies from related fields, such as engineering product design, military response planning, and business process redesign, provide insight and a framework from which to begin developing a methodology to enable holistic disaster response planning. The developed methodology was applied to the communities of Shelby County, TN and pre-Hurricane-Katrina Orleans Parish, LA. Available literature and reliable media sources provide information about the different values of system parameters within the decomposition of the community aspects and also about relationships among the parameters. The community was modeled as a system dynamics model and was tested in the implementation of two, five, and ten year improvement plans for Preparedness, Response, and Development capabilities, and combinations of these capabilities. For Shelby County and for Orleans Parish, the Response improvement plan reduced restoration time the most. For the combined capabilities, Shelby County experienced the greatest reduction in restoration time with the implementation of Development&Response capability improvements, and for Orleans Parish it was the Preparedness&Response capability improvements. Optimization of restoration time with community parameters was tested by using a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. Fifty different optimized restoration times were generated using the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and ranked using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The optimization results indicate that the greatest reduction in restoration time for a community is achieved with a particular combination of different parameter values instead of the maximization of each parameter.

The purpose of this thesis is to model the effects of anti-price gouging (APG) legislation on the costs to businesses during the recovery period of a disaster. A system dynamics model of a business’s replenishment procedures is used to simulate the effects of APG legislation on business performance. Economists have published expansive research on the effects of price ceilings on supply and demand, but there is little research evidence on the operational consequences of price ceiling legislation on business costs. APG legislation increases consumer’s forward buying and shortage gaming after a disaster by removing price incentives to be frugal. Forward buying and shortage gaming are two key drivers of the demand variation and the bullwhip effect, which leads to increased inventory costs, misguided capacity expansion and reduced service levels. These costs have a negative impact on local businesses that are critical to a community’s economic health and recovery from a disaster. The simulation results from this thesis show that APG legislation is not an effective regulatory response to decrease the impact of disasters on affected communities.