This diploma thesis aims to set a complex view on the current process of multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization and point out the direction of DOHA negotiations. The emphasis is put on the Tenth Ministerial Conference, which took place in Nairobi in December 2015. Stances and demands of the WTO member are analysed step by step. The thesis considers threats that possibly come from plurilateral, bilateral and regional agreements and evaluate a potential risk for the multilateral trading system. For this purpose, the thesis is divided into four chapters. First chapter examine theoretical introduction to WTO and particularly to Development Doha Agenda, which is important for subsequent understanding of actual issues. Second part analyses in detail the negotiations in main negotiating parts of DDA before and after a summer break. Following chapter fluently continues with analyse of the progress after summer break and points out some current questions about preparations for MC10 and expectations. Space is also given to the MC10 and its outcomes. Finally, the last chapter gives a thought to future scenarios concerning function of the WTO.

For the European Union (EU), the field of trade policy is a main field in which the EU can assert its actorness and build its identity as an international actor. This "superpower" potential arises out of the EU's extensive resource equipment in trade policy and is driven forward by the EU's significant economic interests. To what extent, however, the EU has been able to use its resources to shape the rules of the international trade regime according to its own preferences has remained questionable. This thesis investigates the question of the EU's impact on and power utilisation in the international trade regime by analysing the EU's changing involvement in World Trade Organisation (WTO) negotiations. Drawing from the theoretical concepts of the "international regime" and "power", the thesis proposes an approach centred on the possession, mobilisation and impact of actors' power in international regimes. In particular, the thesis proposes a framework centred on five key elements: specification of the regime, its qualities and focus; the resources or 'underlying power' that actors bring to the regime; the resources derived by actors from the operation of the regime itself, or 'organisationally dependent capabilities'; the manifestation or deployment of resources and strategies by actors in negotiations; and outcomes defined in terms of actors' power over the regime itself. After an examination of the broad context of the WTO's development and the EU's involvement in the international trade regime, this framework is then explored through a detailed study of the EU's involvement in the negotiations over trade in services that took place in the WTO between 1995 and 2005, using evidence from a wide range of documentary sources and from interviews. On the basis of this exploration of trade in services, the thesis finds that despite the EU's outstanding resources, the WTO negotiations have become too complex for the EU to decisively influence them due to a power shift in the international trade regime. The special nature of the trade in services negotiations makes these particularly unmanageable and they do not seem to present the EU with a setting for achieving its preferences. A lack of cooperation among the WTO members in favour of the negotiations has made progress in the negotiations very hard to realise for the EU. At the same time, the erosion of the EU's resources by the shifting attitude in civil society towards trade policy, and an apparent Jack of business support, has increased the challenge for the EU of managing the international trade regime. Questions are therefore raised about the extent to which the EU has responded to change, mobilised its resources effectively and had a consistent impact on the international trade regime since the mid-1990s.

Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões. / Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.

<p>Increasing energy needs globally have recently led to an interest in effectively bringing energy services in the trading system. Energy services were part of the Uruguay Round of negotiations, whose main achievement was the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). The objective of the GATS is to achieve progressive liberalisation and reduction or elimination of trade barriers of all services sectors, including energy services. The GATS has made commendable progress in liberalising many service sectors, however it has not made meaningful progress with energy services. Furthermore though the SADC region engages in energy services trade through bilateral and regional agreements, a variety of&nbsp / barriers inhibit major successes from being achieved. Effective energy services trade and liberalisation has therefore proved problematic both at the multilateral, regional and bilateral level. This study, seeks to investigate why energy services liberalisation and trade at the multilateral, regional and bilateral level is problematic, with a particular focus on&nbsp / the SADC region.</p>

Cette étude cherche à comprendre comment un secteur agricole particulier évolue dans le contexte de libéralisation actuellement conduit par les négociations du Cycle de Doha. Nous avons choisi le secteur laitier car il nous semblait riche de sens pour les deux sites de l'étude: le Canada et l'Union européenne. Mais l'étude terrain permet également d'analyser deux cas intra-sites : le Québec et la France. Cette recherche se fixe trois objectifs principaux: (1) Le premier est de découvrir les motivations qui poussent un pays à adopter telle ou telle position lors de négociations; (2) Le second est de connaître les positions actuellement défendues à Genève sur la libéralisation de l'agriculture et notamment sur le secteur laitier; (3) Le troisième est de découvrir quels sont les résultats escomptés par les différentes parties. La méthode d'analyse de données est qualitative, elle est basée sur une série de huit entretiens semi-dirigés. L'analyse de contenu a été sélectionnée, elle suit une progression analytique, ce qui signifie que nous allons de la description à l'explication. La comparaison du Canada et de l'Union européenne tout le long du processus de négociations nous a permis d'élaborer dix propositions qui pourront être généralisées grâce à de nouvelles recherches. A la lumière des motivations et des positions découvertes, elles stipulent qu'une protection nulle du secteur agricole est difficilement envisageable. Enfin, à la vue des résultats escomptés elles exposent certaines conditions qui devraient permettre de conclure le Cycle le Doha. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : OMC, Cycle de Doha, Cycle de l'Uruguay, Libéralisation, Secteur laitier, Gestion de l'offre, PAC, OCM du lait et des produits laitiers, Accord sur l'agriculture, Soutien interne, Soutien externe, Accès aux marchés, Développement.

Cette thèse porte sur le renouveau de l'activisme diplomatique des pays en développement à l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC). Suite à « la fin du Tiers-monde » dans la diplomatie internationale des années quatre-vingt, il s'agit ici de poser l'hypothèse de l'émergence d'un nouvel acteur interétatique, le Sud global, qui déploie une diplomatie activiste dans le cadre du Cycle de Doha sur le développement de l'OMC. Lancé à l'automne 2001 et actuellement paralysé par la mésentente entre les différentes puissances commerciales et les groupes du Sud global, le Cycle de Doha a donné lieu au renouvellement des formes organisationnelles et du discours sur le développement et la libéralisation. Les dimensions organisationnelle et discursive de l'activisme diplomatique du Sud global structurent l'analyse développée ici. À l'ère où l'acteur interétatique que fût le Tiers-monde élaborait son idéologie du Nouvel ordre économique international (NOÉI), il faisait par le fait même l'expérience de formes organisationnelles fondées sur la coalition d'un grand nombre de pays partageant une perspective commune sur le développement et sur les relations internationales. Entre ces différentes coalitions régnait une division verticale du travail diplomatique qui différenciait le travail de consultation et le travail de représentation à l'ONU. Or, suite à la déconfiture de l'idéologie du NOÉI et face au nouveau défi que représentait le lancement du Cycle d'Uruguay, le modèle organisationnel du Tiers-monde se désagrégea. Si le Cycle d'Uruguay fut l'occasion de tester de nouvelles formes organisationnelles plus spécialisées et intégrant des pays développés, les résultats furent néanmoins négatifs. Les coalitions du Sud global dans le Cycle de Doha représentent une synthèse de ces expériences en matière d'organisation: on y trouve des « blocs » typiques de la stratégie tiers-mondistes, des « coalitions à enjeu spécifique » reflétant l'héritage du Cycle d'Uruguay, ainsi que des « coalitions hybrides » et des « grands blocs ». Ces nouvelles coalitions ont organisé une division horizontale du travail diplomatique à l'OMC : elles se partagent dorénavant les questions de l'agenda de Doha et se coordonnent pour faire progresser les négociations sur tous les fronts. Au niveau du discours, elles renouvellent l'appareillage conceptuel autour d'éléments discursifs plus opératoires, comme la « proportionnalité » et la « marge de manoeuvre politique », qui favorisent un meilleur ancrage dans l'agenda de négociation. Ce discours du Sud global, d'ailleurs, montre des signes d'évolution en fonction de la chronologie du Cycle de Doha : de très critique à l'égard de la libéralisation, il est passé à un mode plus coopératif. Le nouveau modèle organisationnel, le recentrage du discours au niveau plus opératoire et la transformation du discours en fonction de l'évolution du Cycle de Doha sont autant d'innovations qui témoignent de la capacité du Sud global d'apprendre et de réagir au contexte institutionnel et discursif. Il faudra en tenir compte dans la formulation du compromis mondial attendu pour faire face à l'actuelle période de crise. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Analyse du discours, Commerce mondial, Cycle de Doba, Diplomatie, Organisation mondiale du commerce, Multilatéralisme, Pays en développement, Sud, Sud global, Tiers-monde.

<p>Increasing energy needs globally have recently led to an interest in effectively bringing energy services in the trading system. Energy services were part of the Uruguay Round of negotiations, whose main achievement was the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). The objective of the GATS is to achieve progressive liberalisation and reduction or elimination of trade barriers of all services sectors, including energy services. The GATS has made commendable progress in liberalising many service sectors, however it has not made meaningful progress with energy services. Furthermore though the SADC region engages in energy services trade through bilateral and regional agreements, a variety of&nbsp / barriers inhibit major successes from being achieved. Effective energy services trade and liberalisation has therefore proved problematic both at the multilateral, regional and bilateral level. This study, seeks to investigate why energy services liberalisation and trade at the multilateral, regional and bilateral level is problematic, with a particular focus on&nbsp / the SADC region.</p>

Este estudo buscou compreender como se dá a participação dos atores domésticos na formulação da posição brasileira nas negociações agrícolas, da Rodada de Doha da OMC. A partir da análise de documentos oficiais e de entrevistas realizadas com representantes dos principais atores domésticos brasileiros, foi possível mapear a rede de articulações, interesses e posições que se forma em torno das negociações agrícolas internacionais. Além disso, buscouse compreender a atenção dispensada as demandas desses atores, bem como avaliar os critérios utilizados para incorporá-las na agenda negociadora do país. As reflexões sobre o assunto foram amparadas na Teoria dos Jogos de Dois Níveis, de Putnam (2010), na qual o autor parte do pressuposto de que toda negociação internacional envolve uma dimensão doméstica. Para elaboração deste estudo, partiu-se da hipótese de que existe no plano doméstico a formação de coalizões que se articulam e estabelecem limites para o negociador do país atuar no contexto internacional com os demais negociadores. Os resultados encontrados evidenciaram uma rede de articulação de atores domésticos, inclusive dentro do próprio governo, com interesses heterogêneos e visões diferenciadas da agricultura brasileira. Foram percebidos, assim, dois modelos em disputa que representam públicos e visões diferenciadas. Com o aumento do interesse por política internacional, em virtude, principalmente, do aumento da internacionalização da economia brasileira, muitos atores saíram em defesa de seus interesses, o que acentuou as divergências de posições nas discussões das negociações agrícolas. A atuação do MRE/Itamaraty, no processo das negociações da Rodada de Doha, foi voltada para a promoção de convergências. Este ministério buscou conciliar questões domésticas e internacionais, no entanto, não deixou de ter o domínio sobre a decisão final sobre as negociações agrícolas internacionais. Por fim, o estudo confirmou a hipótese de que há, no plano interno, a formação de coalizões que agem formal e informalmente, articulando-se para a defesa de seus interesses, moldando, assim, a posição nacional nas discussões agrícolas da Rodada de Doha. / This study aimed at understanding how is established the participation of the domestic actors in the formularization of the Brazilian position in the agricultural negotiations, of the Doha Round of the OMC. From the analysis of official documents and interviews carried out with representatives of the main Brazilian domestic actors, it was possible to trace the net of articulations, interests and positions around the international agricultural negotiations. Moreover, it was tried to understand the attention given to the demands of these actors, as well as evaluating the criteria used to incorporate them in the negotiating agenda of the country. The reflections on the subject were supported in the Theory of the Games of Two Levels, by Putnam (2010), in which the author states that every international negotiation involves a domestic dimension. For the elaboration of this study, it was taken into account the hypothesis that in the domestic plan there is the formation of coalitions that articulate and establish limits for the negotiator of the country to act in the international context with the other negotiators. The results found, evidenced a net of articulation of domestic actors, also inside the government itself, with heterogeneous interests and differentiated views of Brazilian agriculture. It was, then, perceived two models in dispute that represent public and differentiated views. With the increase of the interest for international politics, due, mainly, to the increase of the internationalization of the Brazilian economy, many actors came to the defense of their interests, what accented the divergences of position in the arguments of agricultural negotiations. The performance of the MRE/Itamaraty, in the process of the negotiations of the Doha Round, was directed to the promotion of convergences. This ministry aimed to conciliate domestic and international issues; however, it continued having the domain on the final decision on the international agricultural negotiations. Finally, the study confirmed the hypothesis that there is, in the internal plan, the formation of coalitions that act formally and informally, articulating for the defense of their interests, molding, thus, the national position in the agricultural arguments of the Doha Round.

Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões. / Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.

Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões. / Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.