Double-difference seismic tomography is performed on a carbon sequestration operation in the Aneth Oil Field in southeast Utah as part of a Department of Energy initiative on monitoring, verification, and accounting of sequestered CO2. A total of 1,211 seismic events were recorded from a borehole array of 22 geophones. Aneth Unit data were divided into four time periods for time-lapse analysis. A low velocity zone spanning the lateral extents of the observable region, likely representing a CO2 plume, is detected when considering voxels containing the highest ray path coverage. A series of synthetic tomography tests simulating different CO2 plume sizes and locations was performed to assist in characterizing velocity changes associated with Aneth Unit data. Inferences about the existence of a CO2 plume should be made by comparing actual data to synthetic data resulting from simulations performed under similar conditions. Considering synthetic simulation similarities and a derivative weight sum analysis, a CO2 plume can be imaged within the Desert Creek reservoir, but the resolution of the CO2 plume is too low for proper monitoring, verification, and accounting of injected CO2. Recommendations, for improving CO2 plume resolution through double difference seismic tomography, are made to increase the ray path distribution throughout the Aneth Unit by varying geophone locations. / Master of Science

Analysis of synthetic data was performed to determine the most cost-effective tomographic monitoring system for a geologic carbon sequestration injection site. Artificial velocity models were created that accounted for the expected velocity decrease due to the existence of a CO₂ plume after underground injection into a depleted petroleum reservoir. Seismic events were created to represent induced seismicity from injection, and five different geophone arrays were created to monitor this artificial seismicity. Double-difference tomographic inversion was performed on 125 synthetic data sets: five stages of CO₂ plume growth, five seismic event regions, and five geophone arrays. Each resulting velocity model from tomoDD—the double-difference tomography program used for inversion—was compared quantitatively to its respective synthetic velocity model to determine an accuracy value. The quantitative results were examined in an attempt to determine a relationship between cost and accuracy in monitoring, verification, and accounting applications using double-difference tomography. While all scenarios resulted in little error, no such relationship could be found. The lack of a relationship between cost and error is most likely due to error inherent to the travel time calculation algorithm used. / Master of Science

Seismic tomography is a promising tool to help understand and evaluate the stability of a rock mass in mining excavations. Lab measurements give evidence that velocities of seismic wave propagations increase in high stress areas of rock samples. It is well known that closing effects of cracks under compressive pressures tend to increase the effective elastic moduli of rocks. Tomography can map stress transfer and redistribution and further forecast rock burst potential and other seismic hazards, which are influenced by mining. Recorded by seismic networks in multiple underground mines, arrival time of seismic waves and locations of seismic events are used as sources of tomographic imaging survey. An initial velocity model is established according to properties of a rock mass, then velocity structure is reconstructed by velocity inversion to reflect the anomalies of the rock mass. Mining-induced seismicity and double-difference tomographic images of rock mass in mining areas are coupled to show how stress changes with microseismic activities. Especially, comparisons between velocity structures of different periods (before and after rock burst) are performed to analyze effects of rock burst on stress distribution. Tomographic results show that high velocity anomalies form in the vicinity of rock burst before the occurrence, and velocity subsequently experiences a significant drop after the occurrence of rock burst. In addition, regression analysis of travel time and distance indicates that the average velocity of all the monitored region appears to increase before rock burst and reduce after them. A reasonable explanation is that rock bursts tend to be triggered in highly stressed rock masses. After the energy release of rock bursts, stress relief is expected to exhibit within rock mass. Average velocity significantly decreases because of lower stresses and as a result of fractures in the rock mass that are generated by shaking-induced damage from nearby rock burst zones. Mining-induced microseismic rate is positively correlated with stress level. The fact that highly concentrated seismicity is more likely to be located in margins between high-velocity and low-velocity regions manifests that high seismic rates appear to be along with high stress in rock masses. Statistical analyses were performed on the aftershock sequence in order to generate an aftershock decay model to detect potential hazards and evaluate stability of aftershock activities. / Ph. D.

The main objective of this thesis is to develop novel misfit functions for full-waveform inversion such that (a) the estimation of the long-wavelength model will less likely stagnate in spurious local minima and (b) the inversion is immune to wavelet inaccuracy. First, I investigate the pros and cons of misfit functions based on optimal transport theory to indicate the traveltime discrepancy for seismic data. Even though the mathematically well-defined optimal transport theory is robust to highlight the traveltime difference between two probability distributions, it becomes restricted as applied to seismic data mainly because the seismic data are not probability distribution functions. We then develop a misfit function combining the local cross-correlation and dynamic time warping. This combination enables the proposed misfit automatically identify arrivals associated with a phase shift. Numerical and field data examples demonstrate its robustness for early arrivals and limitations for later arrivals.%, which means that a proper pre-processing step is still required. Next, we introduce differentiable dynamic time warping distance as the misfit function highlighting the traveltime discrepancy without non-trivial human intervention. Compared to the conventional warping distance, the differentiable version retains the property of representing the traveltime difference; moreover, it can eliminate abrupt changes in the adjoint source, which helps full-waveform inversion converge to geologically relevant estimates. Finally, we develop a misfit function entitled the deconvolutional double-difference measurement. The new misfit measures the first difference by deconvolution rather than cross-correlation. We also present the derivation of the adjoint source with the new misfit function. Numerical examples and mathematical proof demonstrate that this modification makes full-waveform inversion with the deconvolutional double-difference measurement immune to wavelet inaccuracy.

This Ph.D. dissertation focuses on a comprehensive study of seismic waveform similarity aiming at two themes: (1) reliable identification of repeating earthquakes (repeaters) and (2) investigation of the detailed source process of induced seismicity through the three-dimensional spatiotemporal evolution of mainly neighbouring earthquakes. Theme 1: Reliable identification of repeaters. Repeaters, occurring repeatedly on the same fault patch with nearly identical waveforms, are usually identified with the match-filtering (MF) method which essentially measures the degree of waveform similarity between an earthquake pair through the corresponding cross-correlation coefficient (CC). However, the performance of the MF method can be severely affected by the length of the cross‐correlation window, the frequency band of the applied digital filter, and the presence of a large‐amplitude wave train. To optimize the performance of MF, I first examine the effects of different operational parameters and determine generic rules for selecting the window length and the optimal frequency passband. To minimize the impact of a large‐amplitude wave train, I then develop a new method, named the match-filtering with multisegment cross-correlation (MFMC) method. By equally incorporating the contributions from various segments of the waveforms, the new method is much more effective in capturing the minor waveform discrepancy between an event pair due to location difference and hence is more reliable in detecting potential repeaters and discriminating non-repeaters with large inter-event separation. With both synthetic and borehole array waveform data, I further reveal that waveform similarity is controlled by not only the inter-event separation but also many other factors, including station azimuth, epicentral distance, velocity structure, etc. Therefore, in contrast to the traditional view, the results indicate that waveform similarity alone is insufficient to unambiguously identify true repeaters. For reliable repeater identification, we should rely on a physics-based approach considering both the overlapped source area and magnitude difference. Specifically, I define an event pair to be true repeaters if their inter-event separation is smaller than the rupture radius of the larger event and their magnitude difference is no more than 1. For the precise estimation of inter-event distance in cases of limited data, I develop the differential traveltime double-difference (DTDD) method which relies on the relative S-P differential traveltime. The findings of this study imply that previously identified repeaters and their interpretations/hypotheses potentially can be biased and hence may need a systematic reexamination. Theme 2: Investigation of the detailed source process of induced seismicity. Earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing (HF), especially those with large magnitudes, are often observed to have occurred near/after well completion. The delayed triggering of induced seismicity with respect to injection commencement poses serious challenges for risk mitigation and hazard assessment. By performing waveform cross-correlation and hierarchical clustering analysis, I reveal a high-resolution three-dimensional source migration process with mainshock delayed triggering that is probably controlled by local hydrogeological conditions. The results suggest that poroelastic effects might contribute to induced seismicity but are likely insufficient to activate a non-critically stressed fault of sufficient size. My analysis shows that the rapid pore-pressure build-up from HF can be very localized and capable of producing large, felt earthquakes on non-critically stressed fault segments. I further infer that the number of critically stressed, large intraplate faults should be very limited, and that reactivation of such faults may require sufficient pore-pressure accumulation. The findings of this study may also explain why so few fluid injections are seismogenic. / Graduate

On observe depuis 2005 une sismicité intense à 10 km d'Oulan Bator ce qui a permis d'identifier une faille active, Emeelt, sur le terrain. Après le calcule d'un modèle de vitesse 3D, j'ai appliqué la tomographie double différence pour obtenir une localisation précise des séismes. Ils marquent au moins trois branches parallèles orientées N147° comme la faille vue en surface. L'activité sur la faille principale d'Emeelt (MEF) s’étend sur 15 km, les branches Ouest et Est, moins actives, sur 10 km. La profondeur de l'activité s'étend entre 4 et 15 km. L'activité sismique semble concentrée à l'intersection avec des failles Mésozoïques et les contrastes Vs/Vs suggèrent la présence de fluides. Les 10 essaims identifiés montrent une activité croissante et une migration spatiale avec le temps. Le calcul de 2 scénarios possibles, un M ~ 6.4 et un M ~ 7, indique un important impact sur la ville d'Oulan Bator, avec une intensité minimum de VIII et localement IX pour M=6.4 et X pour M=7. / We observe since 2005 a high seismic activity at 10 km from Ulaanbaatar that allowed us to identify a new active fault, Emeelt, in the field. After computing a 3D velocity model, I applied Double-Difference tomography to obtain a precise localization of earthquakes. They trace at least three parallel branches oriented N147° like the fault seen at surface. The seismic activity on the Main Emeelt Fault (MEF) is along at least 15 km, on the West and East branches, less active, along 10 km. The depth of the seismicity extends between 4 and 15 km. The activity seems concentrated at the intersection with Mesozoic faults and Vp/Vs contrast suggests the presence of fluids. The 10 swarms identified show an increasing activity and a spatial migration with time. The calculation of 2 possible scenarios, one M ~ 6.4 and one M ~ 7, shows an important impact on Ulaanbaatar, with a minimum intensity of VIII and IX for M=6.4 and X for M=7.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Julia Brandão versão final site biblioteca.pdf: 3437366 bytes, checksum: a17a0fda742a4c84df8b90580b2ca3c5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-11-28 / One quarter of all of the Value Added Tax (VAT) collected by Brazilian states is distributed among the municipalities. Three quarters of this transfer is based on the value added by each municipality, but states have the discretion to set their own rules to distribute the remaining quarter. Some states have (recently) changed their laws to condition the distribution on performance indicators as an incentive for better governance. In the state of Ceará all of the discretionary portion of the VAT is distributed according to a rule based on the indicators of performance in the areas of education (72%), health (20%), and environment (8%). This study aims to estimate the impact of the introduction of such rule in Ceará on municipalities performance in education, measured by the IDEB and Prova Brasil. This was done by employing the double difference method to compare the change in performance around the introduction of the new rules in municipalities in Ceará and in neighboring states. Two alternative ways to define the treatment and control groups were used, one relying on geographical proximity and the other on standard matching techniques. In addition to the basic comparison between treatment and control groups, we also separated municipalities into winners and losers of the new law, and into the best and worst GDP per capita performances. The results indicate a positive impact on both the IDEB and Prova Brasil. Even those municipalities that lost resources with the change in the VAT distribution rules have improved their performance in education. The poorer municipalities in the state, which have performed worse than the richest ones, increased their performance by decreasing the performance deficit relative to the richest municipalities. In this sense, there is evidence that the change in the VAT Law implemented by Ceará generated positive impacts in municipality performance in both IDEB and Prova Brasil. / De todo ICMS arrecadado pelos estados brasileiros, 25% é distribuído aos municípios. Os estados são responsáveis por definir as regras de distribuição de 25% destes 25% do ICMS que é transferido aos municípios, os outros 75% seguem o critério do Valor Adicionado Fiscal. Alguns estados alteraram suas leis para que a distribuição seja realizada em função do desempenho dos municípios em algumas áreas com o intuito de incentiva-lo a melhorarem sua performance em busca de uma maior fatia do ICMS. Seguindo esta lógica está o estado do Ceará onde 100% do ICMS distribuído segundo regras estaduais é calculado a partir do desempenho dos municípios em indicadores de resultado nas áreas da educação (72%), saúde (20%) e meio ambiente (8%). Este estudo tem como objetivo estimar o efeito que a mudança da Lei de distribuição do ICMS do Ceará teve em indicadores de resultado da área da educação: IDEB e Prova Brasil. Para tanto, foi utilizado o método da Dupla Diferença por meio da construção de grupos de controle e tratamento. Assim, comparou-se a evolução do desempenho, anteriormente e posteriormente à mudança, de municípios cearenses com municípios parecidos de estados vizinhos, porém, não submetidos a mesma regra de distribuição de ICMS. De forma complementar, foram feitas outras duas analises separando os municípios do estado do Ceará entre ganhadores e perdedores de recursos de ICMS com a mudança na Lei e entre os detentores dos melhores e piores desempenhos de PIB per capita. Os resultados apontam impactos positivos no desempenho dos municípios cearenses tanto no IDEB quanto na Prova Brasil. Mesmo os municípios que perderam recursos com mudança das regras de distribuição de ICMS, melhoraram sua performance na educação. Os municípios mais pobres do estado, que apresentam desempenho pior do que os municípios mais ricos, aumentaram o desempenho reduzindo a diferença de proficiência se comparada aos municípios mais ricos. Neste sentido, há indícios de que a mudança na Lei do ICMS implementada pelo estado do Ceará gerou impactos positivos no desempenho dos municípios no IDEB e na Prova Brasil.

Le suivi temporel est un processus d’acquisition et d’analyse d’acquisitions multiples répétées au même endroit sur la même cible à différentes périodes de temps. Cela s’applique bien à l’exploration sismique quand les propriétés de la cible varient au cours du temps comme pour les réservoirs pétroliers. Cette technique de sismique, dite 4D en raison de l’intégration du temps dans la construction des images, permet une détection et une estimation des variations du sous-sol survenues lors de l’évolution en temps du milieu. En particulier, dans l’industrie, le suivi et la surveillance peuvent améliorer notre compréhension d’un réservoir de pétrole/gaz ou d’un site de stockage de CO2. Analyser la sismique 4D peut aider à mieux gérer les programmes de production des réservoirs. Ainsi, des acquisitions répétées permettent de suivre l’évolutiondes fronts de fluide injectés: on peut optimiser les programmes d’injection de fluides pour une récupération améliorée des hydrocarbures (enhanced oil recovery). Plusieurs méthodes ont été développées pour l’imagerie variable dans le temps en utilisant les informations des ondes sismiques. Dans ma thèse, je montre que l’inversion de forme d’onde complété (FWI) peut être utilisée pour cette imagerie. Cette m´méthode offre des images sismiques quantitatives haute résolution. Elle est une technique prometteuse pour reconstruire les petites variations de propriétés physiques macro-échelle du sous-sol. Sur une cible identifiée pour ces imageries 4D, plusieurs informations a priori sont souvent disponibles et peuvent être utilisées pour augmenter la résolution de l’image. J’ai introduit ces informations grâce à la définition d’un modèle a priori dans une approche classique FWI en l’accompagnant de la construction d’un modèle d’incertitudes a priori. On peut réaliser deux reconstructions indépendantes et faire la différence les reconstruits: on parle de différence parallèle. On peut aussi effectuer une différence séquentielle o`u l’inversion de l’ensemble de données de la second acquisition, dite moniteur, se fait `a partir du modèle de base et non plus à partir du modèle utilisé initialement. Enfin, l’approche double-différence conduit à l’inversion des différences entre les deux jeux de données que l’on rajoute aux données synthétiques du modèle de base reconstruit. J’étudie quelle stratégie est à adopter pour obtenir des changements vitesse plus précis et plus robustes. En plus, je propose une imagerie 4D ciblée en construisant un modèle d’incertitude a priori grâce `a une information (si elle existe) sur la localisation potentielle des variations attendues. Il est démontré que l’inversion 4D ciblée empêche l’apparition d’artéfacts en dehors des zones cibles: on évite la contamination des zones extérieures qui pourrait compromettre la reconstruction des changements 4D réels. Une étude de sensibilité, concernant l’échantillonnage en fréquence pour cette imagerie 4D, montre qu’il est nécessaire de faire agir simultanément un grand nombre de fréquences au cours d’un cycle d’inversion. Ce faisant, l’inversion fournit un modèle de base plus précis que l’approche temporelle, ainsi qu’un modèle des variations 4D plus robuste avec moins d’artéfacts. Toutefois, la FWI effectuée dans le domaine temporel semble être une approche plus intéressante pour l’imagerie 4D. Enfin, l’approche d’inversion 4D régularisée avec un modèle a priori est appliquée sur des ensembles de données réelles d’acquisitions sismiques répétées fournis par TOTAL. Cette reconstruction des variations locales s’inscrit dans un projet d’injection de vapeur pour améliorer la récupération des hydro-carbures: Il est possible de reconstituer des variations de vitesse fines causées par la vapeur injectée. / Time-lapse monitoring is the process of acquiring and analysing multiple seismic surveys, repeatedat the same place at different time periods. This seismic technique, called 4D becauseof the integration time in the construction of images, allows detection and estimation of thesubsurface parameter variations occured through a time evolution. Particularly, in industries,the monitoring can improve our understanding of a producing oil/gas reservoir and CO2 storagesite. Analyzing the time-lapse seismics can help to better manage production programsof reservoirs. In addition, repeated surveys can monitor the evolution of injected fluid frontsand can permit to optimize injection programs which are considered for enhanced oil recovery(EOR) techniques.Several methods have been developed for time-lapse imaging using seismic wave information.In my thesis, I show that full waveform inversion (FWI) can be used for time-lapseimaging, since this method delivers high-resolution quantitative seismic images. It is a promisingtechnique to recover small variations of macro-scale physical properties of the subsurface.In time-lapse applications, several sources of prior information are often available and shouldbe used to increase the image reliability and its resolution. I have introduced this informationthrough a definition of a prior model in a classical FWI approach by also considering a prioruncertainty model. In addition, I have suggested a dynamic weighting to reduce the importanceof these prior models in the final convergence. In realistic synthetic cases, I have shownhow the prior model can reduce the sensitivity of FWI to a less accurate initial model. It istherefore possible to obtain a highly accurate baseline model for 4D imaging.Once the baseline reconstruction is achieved, several strategies can be used to assess thephysical parameter changes. We can make two independent reconstructions of baseline andmonitor models and make subtraction of the two reconstructed models. This strategy is calledparallel difference. The sequential difference strategy inverts the monitor dataset starting fromthe recovered baseline model, and not from the model used initially. Finally, the doubledifferencestrategy inverts the difference data between two datasets which are added to thecalculated baseline data computed in the recovered baseline model. I investigate which strategyshould be adopted to get more robust and more accurate time-lapse velocity changes. Inaddition, I propose a target-oriented time-lapse imaging using regularized FWI including priormodel and model weighting, if the prior information exists on the location of expected variations.It is shown that the target-oriented inversion prevents the occurrence of artifacts outsidethe target areas, which could contaminate and compromise the reconstruction of the effectivetime-lapse changes.A sensitivity study, concerning several frequency decimations for time-lapse imaging, showsthat the frequency-domain FWI requires a large number of frequencies inverting simultaneously.By doing so, the inversion provides a more precise baseline model and more robust time-lapsevariation model with less artifacts. However, the FWI performed in the time domain appearsto be a more interesting approach for time-lapse imaging considering all frequency content.Finally, the regularized time-lapse FWI with prior model is applied to the real field timelapsedatasets provided by TOTAL. The reconstruction of local variations is part of a steaminjection project to improve the recovery of hydrocarbons: it is possible to reconstruct thevelocity variations caused by the injected steam.

Le secteur public joue un rôle important dans la société. Dans la plupart des pays en développement, les dépenses publiques constituent une partie importante du PIB et les entités du secteur public sont les principaux pourvoyeurs d’emploi et les principaux acteurs du marché des capitaux. Le secteur public détermine, généralement par le biais d'un processus politique, ses objectifs économiques et sociaux ainsi que les différents types d'intervention à mettre en place pour les atteindre. Comment le secteur public atteint ses objectifs constitue une question cruciale étant donné que sa taille et son importance économique en font un moteur principal de la croissance et du bien-être social. Ses performances sont jugées à travers la qualité et la nature de sa gestion des finances publiques, les infrastructures qu'il finance ainsi que la qualité de sa régulation des activités économiques. La manière dont les activités du secteur public délivrent les résultats attendus est ainsi une variable clé du développement; pourtant les études empiriques pour comprendre ce qui fonctionne dans le secteur public et pourquoi restent remarquablement limitées. Deux principales raisons expliquent cette situation: les performances dans ce secteur sont difficiles à analyser car les outputs des divers services qu’il fournit sont difficiles à mesurer et même à définir, et le manque de données quantitatives et qualitatives rend difficile une analyse économétrique rigoureuse.Dès lors, l’objectif de cette thèse est de documenter cette littérature et de proposer différentes méthodes empiriques pour évaluer les performances du secteur public dans les pays en développement. Notre analyse est organisée comme suit: la Première Partie - Chapitres 1 et 2 - présente deux essais sur l’évaluation des performances du secteur public “en amont” tandis que la Seconde Partie - Chapitres 3 et 4 - présente deux essais sur l’évaluation des performances du secteur public “en aval” Le Chapitre 1 fait usage de la technique de Blinder-Oaxaca pour examiner comment la qualité des institutions budgétaires affecte les performances budgétaires – déficit budgétaire et dette publique - en Afrique sub-Saharienne. Dans le Chapitre 2, nous utilisons une approche par le Synthetic Control pour étudier l'impact des Offices de Recettes sur la mobilisation des ressources publiques dans une vingtaine de pays en développement. Le Chapitre 3 présente un Benchmarking systématique des performances infrastructurelles de l'Afrique dans les secteurs de l'électricité, de l'eau et de l’assainissement, des technologies de l'information et de la communication, et des transports. Enfin nous évaluons, dans le Chapitre 4, les effets de la mise en place d'une Autorité Indépendante de Régulation sur les performances du secteur de l'électricité dans les pays en développement. / The public sector plays a major role in society. In most developing countries, public expenditure represents a significant part of gross domestic product (GDP) and public sector entities are substantial employers and major capital market participants. The public sector determines, usually through a political process, the outcomes it wants to achieve and the different types of intervention. How the public sector achieves results matters as its size and economic significance make it a major contributor to growth and social welfare. Its achievements emerge in the quality and nature of its financial management, the infrastructure it finances and the quality of its social and economic regulation. How well those public sector activities deliver their expected outcomes is a key development variable; yet explicit evidence base for understanding what works and why in the public sector remains strikingly limited compared with other policy areas. There are two main reasons for this situation: the performance in these areas is difficult to analyze because the outputs of many such services are hard to measure or even to define, and the lack of quantitative and qualitative longitudinal data precludes rigorous econometric analysis.Therefore the objective of this thesis is to document this literature and to propose different ways of measuring public sector performance in developing countries. The dissertation is divided into two Parts: the first Part – Chapters 1 and 2 – presents two essays on “upstream” public sector performance while the second Part – Chapters 3 and 4 – presents two essays on “downstream” public sector performance. The Chapter 1 makes use of the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – Primary Balance and Public Debt – in sub-Saharan Africa. In Chapter 2 we use a Synthetic Control Approach to investigate the impact of Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authorities (SARAs) on revenue mobilization in twenty developing countries. The chapter 3 provides a first systematic Benchmarking of Africa’s infrastructure performance on four major sectors: electricity, water and sanitation, information and communication technologies, and transportation. Finally we evaluate the effects of the establishment of an Independent Regulatory Authority (IRA) on electricity sector performance in developing countries in Chapter 4.