The purpose of this study was to create and test two series of predictive models aimed at projecting high school graduation status. Secondary data were obtained in partnership with an urban school district. All of the predictor variables included in the models tested in this study were academic and nonacademic variables that were found to be significant predictors of high school graduation in previous empirical work. In the first series of models tested, individual academic and nonacademic variables were tested together along with school-level variables. Eighth and ninth grade variables were tested separately to avoid multicollinearity issues. The second series of models tested included similar individual-level academic and nonacademic variables, along with community-level predictors to analyze their ability to predict high school graduation status. Logistic regression and multilevel logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. The model including community-level predictors yielded a pseudo R-squared value of .40, approximating that 40% of the variance was explained by the predictors in the model. Most of the individual predictors included in the models yielded findings similar to those found in previous literature on high school graduation status projection; however, this was not true for all of the predictor variables included. These differences highlight the tension that can exist between generalizability and local specificity. Significant findings from studies utilizing large nationally-representative longitudinal datasets and other large data sources do not always generalize to settings with samples that differ demographically. This study represents a first step in a line of research aimed at developing a better understanding of high school graduation status, particularly in challenging school contexts.

Many longitudinal clinical studies suffer from patient dropout. Often the dropout is nonignorable and the missing mechanism needs to be incorporated in the analysis. The methods handling missing data make various assumptions about the missing mechanism, and their utility in practice depends on whether these assumptions apply in a specific application. Ramakrishnan and Wang (2005) proposed a method (MDT) to handle nonignorable missing data, where missing is due to the observations exceeding an unobserved threshold. Assuming that the observations arise from a truncated normal distribution, they suggested an EM algorithm to simplify the estimation.In this dissertation the EM algorithm is implemented for the MDT method when data may include missing at random (MAR) cases. A data set, where the missing data occur due to clinical deterioration and/or improvement is considered for illustration. The missing data are observed at both ends of the truncated normal distribution. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of other relevant methods. The factors chosen for the simulation study included, the missing data mechanisms, the forms of response functions, missing at one or two time points, dropout rates, sample sizes and different correlations with AR(1) structure. It was found that the choice of the method for dealing with the missing data is important, especially when a large proportion is missing. The MDT method seems to perform the best when there is reason to believe that the assumption of truncated normal distribution is appropriate.A multiple imputation (MI) procedure under the MDT method to accommodate the uncertainty introduced by imputation is also proposed. The proposed method combines the MDT method with Rubin's (1987) MI method. A procedure to implement the MI method is described.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Educational Leadership / Royce Ann Collins / Significant numbers of women drop out of GED preparation programs. This phenomenological study used interviews and demographic surveys to learn how 12 women perceived their experiences of dropping out of GED programs. Possible selves theory and McClusky’s theory of margin provided the theoretical framework for this research. Possible selves theory examined how women’s past, present, and future selves were considered in their experience of the phenomenon, while theory of margin was used to look at the network of challenges and supports present in their lives. This study found that at the time the women dropped out of GED programs: (a) they no longer believed they could achieve their desired future selves, (b) past choices continued to adversely affect them, (c) their burdens far exceeded their resources, (d) they identified the status quo as their feared possible selves, and (e) they believed that having a tutor would have enabled them stay in GED classes. The study recommends: (a) introducing theory of margin and possible selves to students as tools for taking stock and planning for educational success, (b) forming community volunteer tutoring networks, and (c) recording dropout numbers within GED programs to illustrate the need for additional funds. This population is marginalized because they become invisible to society and GED preparation programs when they stop attending.

Grade retention is an educational practice that requires students to repeat the grade level they have just completed (Jimerson, 2001). In the United States, an estimated 15% to 19% of students are retained each year (Holmes, 2006). Previous research on grade retention is comprised of quantitative studies describing students who have been retained as having higher suspension rates, coming from a low socio-economic status, and having an increased chance of dropping out of school (Christle, Jolivette, & Nelson, 2007; Janosz, et al., 1997; Jimerson & Ferguson, 2007; Jimerson et al., 2002; Suh & Suh 2007). While these studies provide a wealth of information about grade retention, they do not describe how adolescents reacted when they were retained and how they experienced retention in their lives. In this qualitative study, eight students and one of their parents were interviewed about their experiences and reactions with retention. The dominant themes identified from student and parent interviews suggest that adolescent students and their parents believed that adolescent students reacted negatively to retention, experienced changes in their lives, experienced a loss of self-esteem, felt left behind by peers, felt older than peers, felt that retention added another year of school to their education, and that adolescent students’ school performance improved following retention. Implications for school counselors are provided.

Les recherches qui se sont intéressées à l'étude du décrochage scolaire ont conduit à considérer l'abandon des études comme un processus qui s'inscrit à moyen ou long terme dans un parcours jalonné de nombreuses difficultés tant sur le plan personnel, que familial et scolaire (Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, 2012). Ces facteurs fragilisent la scolarité des élèves, en particulier celle des garçons qui montrent en général plus de problèmes d'adaptation à l'école que les filles (Royer, 2010). Plus récemment, les études prenant en considération les facteurs psychologiques ont mis en évidence la pertinence d'une approche préventive plus individualisée, ciblée sur l'expérience scolaire des élèves. L'objectif de cette thèse était d'analyser à partir d'une méthodologie quantitative l'influence de l'estime de soi, de la motivation scolaire et de la dépression sur le risque de décrochage scolaire auprès d'un échantillon de 265 élèves scolarisés au collège et au lycée dans des filières générales. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié ces facteurs en fonction du sexe et de l'âge des élèves en prenant en compte la complexité des dimensions étudiées (Gurtner, Gorga, Monnard et Ntamakiliro, 2001 ; Harter, 1988 ). Les résultats que nous avons obtenus vont dans le sens du regard généralement porté sur ces dimensions, à savoir que les filles sont plus motivées et plus engagées dans leur scolarité, qu'elles présentent plus d'états dépressifs, alors que les garçons ont une meilleure estime d'eux-mêmes. Ils montrent également que plus les élèves sont âgés, moins ils sont motivés et plus ils présentent de risque de décrochage scolaire. Dans un second temps, nous nous sommes intéressés à l'influence des ces facteurs sur le risque de décrochage scolaire. Nous avons notamment montré le rôle médiateur de la dépression dans le lien entretenu entre l'estime de soi dans le domaine de la moralité et des conduites et l'état d'anxiété envers les mathématiques et le français avec le risque de décrochage scolaire. Plus spécifiquement, nous avons pu mettre en évidence que ce rôle joué par la dépression était d'autant plus important concernant les garçons, faisant de la détresse psychologique un facteur de risque incontournable dans le processus d'abandon scolaire des adolescents (Quiroga, Janosz et Marcotte, 2006). Ce travail de thèse confirme l'importance de s'attacher aux facteurs de risque personnels dans la compréhension des processus pouvant conduire un élève à rompre le lien avec l'école. Il montre également que cette question est centrale pour les garçons puisque ces derniers montreraient plus de difficultés d'ordre psychologique les conduisant à présenter plus de risque de décrochage scolaire que les filles. / Research on school drop-out has led to consider early school leaving as a medium- or long-term process down a path marked with numerous difficulties, as much on a personal and family level as educational (French Ministry of Education, 2012). These factors make a student's school éducation vulnerable, particularly for boys who generally experience more difficulty adapting to school than girls do (Royer, 2010). More recently, studies including psychological factors have pointed out the relevance of a more personalised préventive approach, based on the student's own educational experience. The goal of this thesis was to analyse the influence of self-esteem, academic motivation and dépression on the risk of dropping out, using quantitative methods on a sample of 265 middle- and high-school students in the general sector. First of all, we studied the above factors of self-esteem, academic motivation and dépression in relation to the sex and age of the students, taking into account the complexity of these three dimensions (Gurtner, Gorga, Monnard et Ntamakiliro, 2001 ; Harter, 1988 ). The results obtained correspond to the commonly held viewpoint that girls are more motivated and committed to their education and manifest more dépressive states than boys, while boys have a higher self-esteem. The results also show that the older students are, the less they are motivated and therefore more likely to drop out. Secondly, we studied the influence of these factors on the risk of drop-out. In particular, we pointed out the mediating role of depression in the established link between self-esteem in the area of morality and behavior and that of a state of anxiety towards maths and French with a risk of dropping out. More specifically, the study revealed that this same role played by depression is even more determinant for boys, making psychological distress an essential risk factor in the process of teenage dropout (Quiroga, Janosz et Marcotte, 2006). The research and analysis carried out for this thesis confirm the importance of focusing on the personal risk factors in order to understand the process that could lead a student to disconnect from school. It also shows that these personal factors become the central question for boys, since unlike girls, they seem to demonstrate more difficulties of a psychological order, creating a higher risk of dropout.

Este trabalho procurou avaliar as correlações existentes entre as características dos docentes, da escola, dos diretores, além da percepção dos professores e do diretor, e da conjuntura econômica sobre a decisão do professor de abandonar a rede pública estadual paulista. Os resultados indicam que as características dos docentes exercem uma forte influência sobre a decisão destes de evadir. Em relação às características da escola, tanto para o PEB I quanto para o PEB II o número de matrículas foi estatisticamente significantes para explicar a evasão, assim como, a experiência do diretor. Apenas para o PEB II o resultado da escola no Saresp foi relevante, a característica familiar dos alunos diferiu no seu comportamento entre os modelos. As variáveis de percepção também apresentaram significância em alguns dos quesitos analisados. Desta forma, conclui-se, neste estudo, que diferentes aspectos intervêm na decisão do docente de permanecer na rede e, ainda que com alguns resultados contraditórios, o ambiente de trabalho parece ser um fator relevante nesta decisão / This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between the characteristics of teachers, school, directors, the perception of teachers and the director, and the economic environment on the decision of the teacher to abandon the São Paulo State public schools. The results indicate that the characteristics of teachers has a strong influence on the dropout decision. In relation to the characteristics of the school, its enrollment number and principal experience were statistically significant to explain the teacher\'s dropout. Only for those teachers who attends students from 5th grade or more, the performance of students in the SARESP test was important. In addition the family background was also important, but with different results according to types of teachers. In some dimensions, the perception of the Director and of the teachers also was significant. So we conclude that different variables influence the dropout decision of teachers. The characteristics of the teachers itself, as well as characteristics of the school can explain why teachers get out their Jobs in the São Paulo state schools

A presente Tese teve como objetivos gerais discutir a questão da crise do aluno com o curso superior na realidade brasileira contemporânea, bem como oferecer subsídios para os atendimentos em orientação profissional e de carreira com foco na crise com o curso universitário. Para tanto, foi realizado um levantamento do perfil do aluno USP de graduação que procurou o Núcleo de Orientação Profissional da USP para atendimento em OP ou Planejamento de Carreira de 2007 a 2012. Foi realizada: a) a partir dos dados contidos em 115 fichas de inscrição uma análise quantitativa dos alunos triados; e (b) uma análise qualitativa de 58 relatórios de triagem que, como materiais clínicos, foram interpretados de acordo com o referencial teórico e metodológico psicanalítico. 37 motivos de procura pelo NOP-USP foram identificados e classificados em: (A) Motivos relacionados ao processo de escolha inicial; (B) Questões emocionais; (C) Motivos ligados ao curso; (D) Motivos ligados à profissionalização; (E) Motivos ligados ao processo de adaptação do aluno ao curso, à cidade e/ou à rotina universitária; (F) Motivos ligados ao vínculo com a USP; (G) Planejamento de carreira; (H) Razões financeiras; e (I) Não foi possível fechar diagnóstico. A intenção inicial era atribuir um motivo por relatório, mas percebeu-se que, frequentemente, cada relato trazia 1 motivo principal e diversos secundários. Diante disso, os motivos foram classificados em motivo saliente e motivo(s) periférico(s), cujo modelo é da relação figura-fundo da Gestalt. Sintetizando os itens discutidos e classificando as conclusões em duas ordens de fatores relativas aos objetivos gerais da presente Tese, concluiu-se que: (1) Em relação à questão da crise dos alunos com o curso superior na realidade brasileira contemporânea, os motivos de procura são multitemáticos e funcionam conforme saliência e periferia; grande parte dos alunos encontrava-se em crise sob angústia de perda; a dimensão do Trabalho tem centralidade para os alunos; os alunos buscavam integrar sentido a suas carreiras acadêmicas, sendo aventado que na atualidade o ethos social provoca baixa tolerância a formas falso-self de identidade profissional; a autoconstrução social em jovens na atualidade é uma tarefa contraditória devido a determinantes sociais que reforçam a impulsividade e a baixa reflexão; a adaptação universitária é de suma importância para minorar a evasão; o alto rendimento acadêmico tem importante significado narcísico para os alunos da USP e a dificuldade em disciplinas vem a ser muito humilhante, levando-os a questionar a escolha; há aparente congruência entre habitus de alunos da amostra e da USP; houve grande procura de alunos de Humanidades/Ciências Humanas e Sociais e baixa de Licenciaturas; e 2) Em relação à prática profissional da OP com foco na crise com o curso universitário, a continência do psicólogo é fundamental no momento de crise, para devolver ao aluno a esperança de resolução do conflito que levou a ela; a realidade externa pareceu ficar fora do campo de preocupação dos psicólogos nas triagens, e o NOP-USP configura-se, também, como entrada para demandas psicoterápicas. Em suma, a evasão tem um custo pessoal e social altos, especialmente em se tratando da USP, e um centro de carreiras desempenha importante papel de retaguarda e prevenção na crise do estudante universitário / This Thesis had as general objectives to discuss the issue of the crisis with higher education in contemporary Brazilian reality as well as offering support for vocational guidance and career planning focusing university. For this task, a survey was conducted of the student\'s undergraduate USP profile that sought the USP of Vocational Guidance Center for assistance in OP or Career Planning in 2007-2012. Was taken: a) from the data contained in 115 registration forms a quantitative analysis of the studied students; and (b) a qualitative analysis of 58 screening reports that as clinical materials were interpreted according to the theoretical and methodological psychoanalytic. 37 reasons to seek the NOP-USP were identified and classified into: (A) Reasons related to the initial selection process; (B) Emotional issues; (C) connected to the course Reasons; (D) Reasons related to professionalism; (E) Reasons related to the adaptation process of the student to the course, the city and / or the university routine; (F) Reasons linked to bond with the USP; (G) Career Planning; (H) Financial reasons; and (I) Could not close diagnosis. The original intention was to assign a reason for the report, but it was noticed that often each reporting brought one main reason and various side. Therefore, the reasons were classified into salient reason and reason (s) Peripheral (s), with the model of figure-ground relationship of Gestalt. Summarizing the items discussed and classifying the findings in two factors orders on the general objectives of this thesis, it was concluded that: (1) For the issue of students with higher education crisis in contemporary Brazilian reality, looking for reasons are multi-dimensional and work as salient and peripherals, most of the students was in crisis in loss of trouble, the work still has centrality for students, students seek to integrate meaning to their academic careers, social self in young today is a contradictory task, the university adaptation is important to hold the evasion, high yield has important narcissistic meaning for students at USP, no apparent congruence between habitus students and USP, and there was great demand for students of Humanities / Social and Human Sciences and low Undergraduate; and 2) for the professional practice of OP focused on the crisis with the university, the psychologist continence is very important to give the student back the hope that its crisis can be solved. External reality seems to be out of the field of concerns psychologists, and the NOP-USP is also an open door to psychotherapeutic demands. In short, dropout has both personal and social high cost, especially in the case of USP, and a career center plays an important role in rear college student crisis

A obesidade é problema de saúde que afeta diversas sociedades. Seu tratamento deve ter abordagem multiprofissional e interdisciplinar. No entanto, tratamentos crônicos têm, em geral, menor adesão, pelo fato de exigirem muito empenho do sujeito para modificar seus hábitos de vida e atingir as metas propostas. O objetivo deste estudo foi investigar a taxa de abandono do tratamento da obesidade e seus aspectos motivacionais, com vistas a contribuir para o planejamento de estratégias terapêuticas mais eficazes que diminuam o impacto das consequências dessa doença para a saúde pública. O estudo foi realizado a partir de informações contidas no banco de dados do Programa de Reeducação Alimentar (PRAUSP), com informações de 192 adultos com excesso de peso, de ambos os sexos, que participaram de 14 grupos formados no período de 2004 a 2009, concluindo ou não a estratégia. Foi considerado abandono quando o indivíduo apresentou 30% ou mais de faltas nos 10 encontros realizados e não participou da avaliação final do programa. Com esses sujeitos, foi realizada uma entrevista para coleta de dados sociodemográficos, realização de medidas de circunferência da cintura, além de peso e estatura para cálculo do índice de massa corporal (IMC). Nesse momento, foi investigado o motivo do abandono e aplicada a Escala de Silhuetas para avaliação da imagem corporal. Como resultados, 82 pessoas abandonaram o programa (43,8%) e 50 delas aceitaram participar do estudo. A maioria era do sexo feminino (n=35; 70%) com idade média de 46,8 anos, casada (n=30; 60%) e ensino médio completo (n=28; 56%). Quase metade deles (n=23; 46%) tinha renda familiar mensal de quatro salários-mínimos. O motivo mais frequente do abandono citado pelos sujeitos foi o horário inadequado (46%). Depois da participação no PRAUSP, 80% (n=40) relataram alguma tentativa de redução de peso; 64% (n=32) obtiveram sucesso, mas 88% (n=44) referem que ainda precisam emagrecer. Mais da metade deles (n=26; 52%) participaria novamente do programa. O IMC médio antes do PRAUSP e atualmente foi de 33,4kg/m2±5,9kg/m2 e 33,8kg/m2±6,8kg/m2, respectivamente. Oito por cento (n=4) estão eutróficos e a porcentagem de obesidade grave aumentou de 12 para 18%. A circunferência da cintura média antes do PRAUSP e atualmente foi de 112,5cm±15,1cm e 109,7cm±14,4 cm para os homens e 102,4cm±13,1cm e 96,3cm±14,7 cm para as mulheres, respectivamente. Houve superestimação do tamanho corporal nas mulheres (p=0,00), ao se comparar o IMC atual (33,1kg/m²) com aquele relativo à silhueta que elas achavam que possuíam (IMC real=37,4kg/m²). A insatisfação corporal foi encontrada em todos indivíduos (p=0,00), ao escolherem silhuetas mais magras (IMC desejado= 27,4kg/m² para mulheres e 24,5kg/m² para homens (amostra total: 26,5kg/m²). Conclui-se que a taxa de abandono é alta e o motivo citado (horário incompatível com o trabalho) merece reflexão cuidadosa, visto que os indivíduos já tinham essa informação ao decidirem participar do programa. Nesse sentido, outros estudos são necessários para melhor compreensão dos fatores que interferem na adesão a estratégias para perda de peso. / Obesity is a health problem which affects many societies; its treatment should have a multiprofessional and interdisciplinary approach. However, chronic treatments have, in general, lower adherence because they require much individuals\' effort to modify their lifestyle and achieve proposed goals. This study aimed to investigate the dropout rate in treatment of obesity and its motivational aspects in order to contribute to the planning of more effective therapeutic strategies that reduce the impact of consequences of this disease to public health. The study was conducted based on information contained in the Food Retraining Program (PRAUSP) database with information about 192 overweight adults, men and women who participated in 14 groups formed in the period from 2004 to 2009, concluding or not the strategy. It was considered dropout when the individual had 30% or more absences during the 10 meetings and did not attend the final evaluation of the program. With these subjects, an interview was conducted to collect demographic data; the measures of waist circumference, weight and height to calculate body mass index (BMI) were performed. At this point, the reason for dropout was investigated and the Silhouettes Scale for assessment of body image was applied. As a result, 82 people left the program (43.8%) and 50 of them agreed to participate in the study. Most were female (n=35; 70%) with mean age of 46.8 years old, married (n=30, 60%) and with completed high school (n=28; 56%). Almost half of them (n=23, 46%) had monthly family income of four Brazilian minimum wages. The most frequent reason for dropout reported by subjects was the inadequate time (46%). After participation in PRAUSP, 80% (n=40) reported some attempt at weight reduction; 64% (n=32) were successful but 88% (n=44) state that they still need to lose weight. More than half of them (n=26; 52%) would participate in the program again. The mean BMI before PRAUSP and currently was 33.4kg/m2±5.9kg/m2 and 33.8kg/m2±6.8kg/m2, respectively. Eight percent (n=4) were eutrophic and the percentage of severe obesity increased from 12 to 18%. The average waist circumference before PRAUSP and currently was 112.5cm±15.1cm and 109.7cm±14.4 cm for men and 102.4cm± 13.1cm and 96.3cm±14.7 cm for women, respectively. There was overestimation of body size in women (p=0.00) when comparing the current BMI (33.1kg/m²) with the silhouette that they thought they had (real BMI=37.4 kg/m²). The body dissatisfaction was found in all subjects (p=0.00) by choosing leaner silhouettes (desired BMI=27.4 kg/m² for women and 24.5kg/m² for men (total sample: 26.5kg/m²). It was concluded that the dropout rate is high and the reason reported (time incompatible with the work) deserves careful consideration, since the individuals had this information when they decide to participate in the program. Thus, further studies are needed to better understanding of the factors that influence adherence to strategies for weight loss.

Thesis advisor: Robert J. Starratt / A qualitative case study of three high schools was conducted to identify and profile school practices employed in educating a traditionally low-achieving subpopulation in northeast India. By the considerably higher than average retention and graduation rates among their students who come from indigenous tribal communities, these schools stand out as effective. The study was centered on the following research questions: 1) What were the teaching practices that characterize three high schools with successful records of graduating (upwards of 100%) indigenous Northeast India tribal students? 2) How were these successful schools affected by the school leadership? A body of related literature provided the theoretical rationale and informed the researcher in collecting data, doing analysis, and processing interpretation. The researcher reviewed specific categories of literature focused on the following: dropout influences, effective teaching practices, school leadership, indigenous tribal life contexts, spirituality, and worldview of the peoples of Northeast India. The findings indicated that these three schools with low dropout rates reflected authentic and effective teaching practices that were student-friendly and based on a coherent mix of various principles of learning, instructional strategies, classroom management, and the personal dedication of the teaching faculties. Furthermore, the schools tried to create an atmosphere of social connectedness and community, based on the values of the indigenous people of that area. The school leadership was proactive in an effort to sustain the sense of community through a variety of school activities and cooperation with parents. The researcher found that the ethos of the schools motivated students to focus on their studies in view of a better economic future. A contextualized pedagogy that took into account the background and learning styles of a wide variety of students helped the students to focus on their learning in the various academic disciplines. Pedagogical practices that promoted academic achievement in concert with indigenous values sustained the interest of the students and moved them to actively involve themselves in the life of the school. The leadership provided the necessary vision and direction to make the objectives and goals of the school understood and obtainable. The visible presence of the principal and his/her affirming interaction also helped to maintain the motivation of the community on all levels of operation. The findings of this research have implications for educational practice, policy, teacher preparation and school leadership in the context of rural India. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009. / Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education. / Discipline: Educational Administration and Higher Education.

Essa dissertação explora o aumento da retenção escolar, introduzido pela mudança da forma de organização escolar de ciclos para séries. Por meio do método de diferenças em diferenças e usando um desenho de avaliação da política diferente de trabalhos similares, apresentamos os efeitos agregados e dinâmicos da maior retenção sobre o desempenho escolar, taxa de aprovação e taxa de abandono para as escolas públicas urbanas do Ensino Fundamental Regular do Brasil. As estimativas para desempenho mostram uma queda na proficiência de matemática e língua portuguesa para 4ª séries e 8ª séries. As estimativas do efeito dinâmico apresentam maiores no curto prazo para 4ª séries, enquanto para 8ª séries os efeitos maiores foram no longo prazo. Também ocorre uma queda da aprovação e aumento da taxa de abandono para ambas às séries. Concluímos que o retorno ao sistema de séries parece não ter sido uma boa estratégia para essas escolas. / This dissertation explores the increasing school retention, introduced by changing the form of school organization of cycles for series. Through the method of difference in differences and using an evaluation design of policy different from similar studies, we present the aggregate and dynamic effects of the increased of retention on school performance, promotion and dropout rate for urban public schools of Basic Education in Brazil. The estimates show a drop in performance achievement in math and achievement reading for 4th grade and 8th grade. Estimates of the dynamic effect present higher in the short term to 4th grade while for 8th grade were the largest effects in the long run. There is also a drop in promotion and rising dropout rate for both the series. We conclude that the return to the series system seems to have not been a good strategy for these schools.