Magister Artium (Social Work) - MA(SW) / The aim of this study was to explore and describe the factors that contribute to recidivism with incarcerated sexual offenders. A qualitative research approach was used and ten incarcerated recidivist sexual offenders in the prisons were selected through purposive sampling. The researcher used semi-structured interview guides and a voice recorder to conduct as data collection tools during the interviews with the participants. The information gathered was transcribed, translated and analyzed using interpretive analysis.

Dynamic panel data models are widely used by econometricians to study over time the economics of, for example, people, firms, regions, or countries, by pooling information over the cross-section. Though much of the panel research concerns inference in stationary models, macroeconomic data such as GDP, prices, and interest rates are typically trending over time and require in one way or another a nonstationary analysis. In time series analysis it is well-established how autoregressive unit roots give rise to stochastic trends, implying that random shocks to a dynamic process are persistent rather than transitory. Because the implications of, say, government policy actions are fundamentally different if shocks to the economy are lasting than if they are temporary, there are now a vast number of univariate time series unit root tests available. Similarly, panel unit root tests have been designed to test for the presence of stochastic trends within a panel data set and to what degree they are shared by the panel individuals. Today, growing data certainly offer new possibilities for panel data analysis, but also pose new problems concerning double-indexed limit theory, unobserved heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependencies. For example, economic shocks, such as technological innovations, are many times global and make national aggregates cross-country dependent and related in international business cycles. Imposing a strong cross-sectional dependence, panel unit root tests often assume that the unobserved panel errors follow a dynamic factor model. The errors will then contain one part which is shared by the panel individuals, a common component, and one part which is individual-specific, an idiosyncratic component. This is appealing from the perspective of economic theory, because unobserved heterogeneity may be driven by global common shocks, which are well captured by dynamic factor models. Yet, only a handful of tests have been derived to test for unit roots in the common and in the idiosyncratic components separately. More importantly, likelihood-based methods, which are commonly used in classical factor analysis, have been ruled out for large dynamic factor models due to the considerable number of parameters. This thesis consists of four papers where we consider the exact factor model, in which the idiosyncratic components are mutually independent, and so any cross-sectional dependence is through the common factors only. Within this framework we derive some likelihood-based tests for common and idiosyncratic unit roots. In doing so we address an important issue for dynamic factor models, because likelihood-based tests, such as the Wald test, the likelihood ratio test, and the Lagrange multiplier test, are well-known to be asymptotically most powerful against local alternatives. Our approach is specific-to-general, meaning that we start with restrictions on the parameter space that allow us to use explicit maximum likelihood estimators. We then proceed with relaxing some of the assumptions, and consider a more general framework requiring numerical maximum likelihood estimation. By simulation we compare size and power of our tests with some established panel unit root tests. The simulations suggest that the likelihood-based tests are locally powerful and in some cases more robust in terms of size. / Solving Macroeconomic Problems Using Non-Stationary Panel Data

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Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-01-09T16:22:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Diamantino Mayra (mayra.diamantino@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-01-31T11:22:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-31T11:22:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-11 / O objetivo desta dissertação é estudar a dinâmica da produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) através de um modelo de fatores dinâmicos e verificar a importância do catch up e outros determinantes da PTF por meio do estimador do GMM Sistêmico, utilizando dados da Penn World Table 9.0 entre 1970 e 2014. Devido à existência de transbordamentos tecnológicos e comércio internacional, é esperado que existam variações comuns entre as produtividades de diferente países. Sendo assim, estimamos um modelo de fatores dinâmicos para as PTFs de um conjunto de países tecnologicamente avançados para capturar esses efeitos. Dessa estimativa fomos capazes de extrair seu fator comum e usá-la como proxy para PTF mundial. Isso nos permite incluir a tendência comum na regressão da PTF e estimar seus efeitos sobre a PTF. Nosso fator comum estimado reflete bem aos principais choques de produtividade que ocorreram no período e a sensibilidade de cada país com relação ao fator comum parece estar negativamente relacionada com o nível de desenvolvimento de cada país – essa correlação parece estar de acordo com o argumento de que há um efeito de catch up na produtividade: países mais distantes da fronteira têm crescimento maior por absorverem mais da tecnologia mundial. Além disso, nossas estimativas para o painel dinâmico estimado utilizando este fator estimado reforça esse resultado. / The purpose of this dissertation is to study the global dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) through a dynamic factors model and verify the importance of the catch up effect and other determinants of TFP through the System GMM estimator, using data from the Penn World Table 9.0 from 1970 to 2014. Because there’re technological spillovers and international trade, it would be expected to see the existence of common variations in the productivity of different countries. Therefore, we apply a dynamic factor model to these productivities and its growth rates in order to capture these effects. These estimates allow us to extract the common factor and use it as a proxy for the world TFP. It allows us to include the common trend in the dynamic equation in the TFP regression in order to estimate its effects on the TFP. Our estimated common factor captures well the main productivity shocks that occurred in the period, and the sensibility of each country to the common factor seems to be negatively related to its country level of technological development – this correlation is in accordance with the argument that there’s a catch up effect in productivity: countries more distant from the frontier have higher growth rates because there is more room to absorb from the global technology. Moreover, our estimates for the dynamic panel using this estimated factor reinforces this result.

Depuis une vingtaine d’années, les études dénotent une augmentation de la part de joueurs pathologiques au sein de la population, entrainant avec elle une augmentation des problèmes associés au jeu. Au fil des ans, la littérature s’est ainsi étoffée d’une multitude de recherches portant sur le lien entre jeu pathologique et différents comportements déviants. Sa relation avec la délinquance reste toutefois largement inexplorée. D’autre part, la rareté des études rendant compte de l’aspect dynamique des trajectoires de jeu laisse de nombreuses questions sans réponses. Afin d’améliorer l’état des connaissances sur le jeu pathologique et son lien avec la délinquance, nous analysons les données issues d’un projet de recherche (2006-2008), à l’aide d’un modèle multiniveaux longitudinal tenant compte autant des facteurs dynamiques que statiques. Premièrement, il s’agit de déterminer les facteurs permettant de discriminer les joueurs pathologiques délinquants des non-délinquants (différences en termes de nature ou d’expression du comportement). Deuxièmement, partant du principe que les facteurs antécédents ne peuvent à eux seuls rendre compte des changements au cours du temps dans les trajectoires de jeu et de délinquance, nous évaluons l’incidence des circonstances de vie conventionnelles et déviantes sur le passage à l’acte criminel. De plus, dans une logique séquentielle, nous soulevons une partie du voile qui s’étend sur la préséance d’un comportement sur l’autre. Les résultats révèlent une forte association entre les paramètres liés au jeu et la commission de crime chez les joueurs pathologiques, autant en ce qui concerne les facteurs stables que les circonstances variant dans le temps. L’analyse conjointe des facteurs dynamiques et statiques liés aux trajectoires de jeu et de délinquance met en évidence la grande influence des circonstances de la vie déviante sur le moment du passage à l’acte. / For two decades, research has shown a rise in the population of pathological gamblers population, followed by an increase of gambling related problems. In recent years, a growing number of studies have demonstrated a link between pathological gambling and several deviant behaviors. However, its relationship with criminal offending is still largely unraveled, despite the fact that a significant number of gamblers do commit crimes during their career. Furthermore, the dynamic aspect surrounding gambling trajectories is still understudied, leaving numerous questions unanswered. We analyze retrospective data from 100 gamblers recruited in Montreal, Canada, between 2006 and 2008. Using a multilevel longitudinal model, we assess the impact of dynamic as well as static factors. Firstly, we aim to establish which factors distinguish criminal offending from non-criminal offending within pathological gamblers. Secondly, assuming that shared antecedent factors aren’t sufficient enough to explain all variations in the adherence to one or both observed trajectories over time, we assess the impact of conventional and deviant lifestyle circumstances on criminal offending. Moreover, we seek to uncover the sequential logic linking pathological gambling and criminal offending in order to determine which behavior precedes the other. Results reveal that gambling parameters are strongly associated with crime, at the static as well as at the dynamic level. Joint analysis of both static and dynamic factors related to gambling trajectories shows the impact of deviant lifestyle circumstances on criminal offending.

Dans le contexte de la mondialisation, le projet d’émission d’une monnaie unique en Afrique de l’Ouest, initié par la CEDEAO en 1999, offre aux petites économies de la sous-Région de nouvelles opportunités. Le marché unique accroitrait la taille des marchés domestiques, favoriserait les économies d'échelle, simulerait la profitabilité des investissements et l’accroissement du Produit potentiel des économies. La présente Thèse étudie les implications associées à cette évolution monétaire projetée, dans la perspective des pays de la sous-Région qui conduisent actuellement une politique monétaire et de change autonome. Les résultats montrent que les économies de la CEDEAO ne sont pas synchrones, notamment par rapport à leur cycle de croissance. L’analyse des mésalignements établit que la non-Participation à une union monétaire ne protège pas contre les déséquilibres de change. Une participation de la Gambie, de la Guinée ou de la Sierra-Leone à l’UEMOA aurait été préférable, entre 1994 et 1999. Mais cet avantage se réduit ou disparaît à partir de 2000. Le bien-Être mesuré par la croissance du PIB ou par l’IDH n’est pas affecté par la participation à une zone ou à une union monétaire. Toutefois, une telle participation a un effet vigoureux, positif et significatif sur le bien-Être mesuré par la consommation par habitant. Globalement, malgré la faible synchronisation des économies, la participation à l’union monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest est associée à un niveau de mésalignement équivalent ou plus faible que celui de la non-Participation, sauf pour le Ghana et le Nigéria. Mais une telle participation pourrait accroître la consommation par habitant. Le projet de monnaie unique de la CEDEAO est donc pertinent pour les économies de la ZMAO. / The context of the globalization suggests that the project of a West African common currency launched by the ECOWAS commission in 1999 is a potential source of opportunities for the small economies of the sub-Region. The common market will increase the scale of their small domestic markets; facilitate the realization of the scale economies; enhance the profitability of the investments and improve the potential product of the economies. Thus, this thesis aims to analyse the effect of that monetary evolution planned for countries following an autonomous monetary and exchange policy in the West African sub-Region. The results show that the economies of the sub-Region are not symmetric, especially because of their growth cycles. The equilibrium exchange rate analyse proves that the non-Participation in the common currency does not shield the West African economies against the exchange rate misalignment for them. Especially a participation of Gambia, Guinea or Sierra-Leone in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) between 1994 and 1999 would have generated a lower exchange rate misalignment for them. But that effect decreases or disappears as for 2000. On another hand, the participation in a common currency or in a monetary area in Sub-Saharian Africa does not affect the welfare measured by growth or HDI. But, both the participation in the monetary area or in the common currency improves the welfare, measured by consumption by head, strongly and significantly. Ultimately the ECOWAS economies are not robustly symmetric. Relative to the misalignment of the exchange rate the non-Participation in the WAEMU is not better, except for Ghana and Nigeria. For all ECOWAS economies, the participation in a common currency or in a monetary area is better for their welfare, measured by the consumption by head. The ECOWAS common currency project is subsequently relevant for monetary union non-Participants economies of the sub-Region.