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我國法令原則上禁止庫藏股的交易，但實務上相當盛行母公司透過本身可完全控制的子公司來買回母公司股票，從經濟實質的觀點來看，此一交易屬於實質的庫藏股交易。本論文之目的在探討我國「子公司買回母公司股票」之實質庫藏股交易的資訊內涵，是否和資訊假說的含意相符；其次驗證對於發生諸如借殼上市之經營權移轉情形的公司而言，「子公司買回母公司股票」交易和公司大股東出脫持股俾追求自利的經濟誘因是否有關。研究主題一共發展3個研究假說，主要擬瞭解我國子公司買進母公司股票之交易行為的資訊內涵，俾了解此交易傳遞之資訊本質，並評估市場反應是否和此資訊有關。第二個研究主題共發展4個假說，係探討借殼上市公司內部人在借殼成功後，是否會利用子公司買進其借殼時增加的持股或融資交易的股票，俾舒解資金壓力。此外，亦驗證交易過程中的股價行為，是否和內部人為極大其獲利水準而可能進行股價操縱的股價行為相同。 　　本論文是以84年至87年為研究期間，兩個主題的樣本係相互獨立。實證結果顯示：關於主題一－子公司買進母公司股票傳遞之資訊本質，本研究發現，平均而言，以子公司買進母公司股票當季與後續四季為基準，母公司在此交易的後續期間並無表現出優於預期的盈餘績效（相對於配對公司），而且在交易後亦無法觀察到分析師對母公司盈餘預測有顯著的正向修正（相對於配對公司）。另外，在控制內部人淨買入、公司規模、子公司購買股數、資金需求與產業趨勢等變數後，本研究並未發現子公司買進母公司股票時的股價反應，和母公司當季與下一季的異常正向盈餘績效有顯著的正向關係。總而言之，國內實務界雖然宣稱子公司買進母公司股票係傳遞看好母公司未來前景的訊息，但本研究的證據顯示，這項交易並非傳遞母公司未來盈餘變動的資訊，同時，此交易引發的正向市場反應，似乎並非來自投資人對母公司未來績效的預期，故從股價操縱的角度來看，此一股價效應可能來自於母公司刻意創造，但其實與母公司經濟實質無關的泡沫股價。 　　關於主題二－借殼上市公司透過子公司買進母公司股票之經濟誘因－的實證結果顯示：在控制其他因素後，借殼上市公司在借殼成功的後續期間，子公司買回母公司股票之交易發生後，相較於無此交易的配對公司而言，其內部人持股比例和融資餘額有顯著降低的情形。基於這類公司大股東有套現的特殊動機，故可合理懷疑，這項證據和內部人籍子公司買進母公司股票來出脫持股俾套現獲利有關。此外，分析結果發現：子公司買回母公司股票交易前有正向的股價效應，此一股價行為和內部人操縱下的股價型態相符，但交易後的股價水準則並未顯著低於交易前的股價。吾人推測此一結果，可能肇因於投資人受到誤導，以致本研究未能觀察到後續反轉下跌的股價行為。 　　整體來看，子公司買進母公司股票之交易並非如實務界所宣稱，係傳遞公司未來前景較佳之資訊，反而可能和內線交易與股價操縱有關。因此，本研究支持目前財政部擬議中嚴格禁止或限制母子公司交叉持股的方案，此外，本研究應有助於投資人做投資決策時，對於母子公司交叉持股的本質有所了解。 / Companies are not allowed to buy back any of its own shares except in some special cases according to the Company Laws in Taiwan, but the practice that parent companies repurchase their own stocks through subsidiary companies (which is so called parent-subsidiary cross-holding transactions) is popular currently. From the economic substance view, the parent and subsidiary companies are treated as a single economic entity, and the parents' stocks held by their subsidiaries are treasury stocks in substance. Since the authorities and investors are all concerned with this issue, and previous work in this area is limited, this thesis investigates the information content and economic incentives of these transactions. Specifically, there are two research questions in this dissertation. The first is whether the transactions that subsidiary companies purchase parents' stocks convey any information about parents' future prospects? And whether the stock price reactions around announcement dates are positively related to parents' subsequent earnings changes. The next question is whether these transactions are motivated by insiders' intent to sell their own shares for self-interest? And is the stock price behavior around announcement dates consistent with the explanation that stock price is manipulated? 　　The findings of the first research question are as follows. First, I find no evidence that there are positive aggregate unexpected quarterly earnings relative to a size and industry-matched control sample over the announcement quarter and subsequent four ones. Second, the significant evidence that there are positive revisions of earnings forecasts by analysts around announcement dates also cannot be found. Finally, a regression analysis shows that there is no significant positive relation between positive abnormal stock returns at announcement and positive quarterly earnings changes over quarter 0 and quarter I. In summary, the results are not consistent with the implication of the information hypothesis. I find no systematic support for the firms' claims that the meanings behind parent-subsidiary cross holding transactions are to convey managements' private information about parents' favorable prospects. 　　With regard to the second research question, I focus primarily on those listed companies whose controls are obtained by unlisted companies through purchasing outstanding shares in the open market, these companies are not included in the sample of the first question. As predicted, I find systematic support for the hypotheses that shares owned by insiders and companies' margins decrease relative to control groups immediately following parent-subsidiary cross holding transactions announcements and that abnormal stock returns before and at announcements are positive. However, I show that the abnormal stock returns after the announcements do not fall bellow those before announcement dates significantly. In summary, the findings indicate that these transactions maybe a means for informed insiders to sell their own shares at manipulated high prices in order to alleviate the huge capital pressure by self-interest. 　　Overall, the transactions that subsidiary companies purchase parents' stocks are more likely to have relation to insider transactions and stock price manipulation, rather than convey favorable information about parents' prospects as what firms claim. Therefore, this thesis supports an act of prohibiting or limiting parent-subsidiary cross holdings proposed by the Ministry of Finance strictly. Besides, the results in this thesis may be helpful for investors to understand the nature of parent-subsidiary cross holdings when they make investment decisions.

La Directive européenne et les politiques de prévention du changement climatique conduisentà un développement important des Énergies Renouvelables pour la production d'électricité. Cecontexte politique est en train d'induire l'insertion massive de production intermittente d'origineéolien dans les réseaux électriques. Pour répondre à la question des limites de l'intégration de l'éoliendans les réseaux électriques, nous nous appuyons sur l'étude des aspects technique et économiques.Dans ce cadre, cette thèse s'intéresse d'une part à l'étude de l'efficacité des dispositifs d'incitationéconomique du point de vue de leur efficacité à stimuler la croissance de l'énergie éolienne et d'autrepart, aux problématiques techniques de court et long terme liées à l'intermittence de l'éolien. Dans lecourt-terme, les problèmes du réseau électrique ainsi que les ajustements dans le marché del'électricité sont abordés. Dans le long terme, l'impact de l'éolien sur la sûreté de fonctionnement estévalué au moyen d'un algorithme de calcul du crédit de capacité de l'éolien. / The development of Renewable Energy for electricity production has increased due to theEuropean policies and directives to prevent climate change. This political context is promoting amassive insertion of intermittent wind electricity production into electrical networks. There are stilldoubts about the limitations of integrating wind power into the electrical networks. For this reason,we focus on the study technical and economic aspects to approach these limitations. The firstpurpose of this research is to determine the effectiveness of the economical incentives policies inorder to stimulate growth in the wind power production. The second one is to evaluate the technicalproblems in the short and long term caused by the intermittency of wind power. In the short-term,the problems of power systems as well as the adjustments in the electricity market are discussed. Inthe long term, the impact of wind power reliability (in the network) is evaluated by using an algorithmto calculate the capacity credit of wind power.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:10680481 研究代表者:早川 直樹 研究期間:1998-1999年度

Submitted by Rodrigo Oliveira (rodrigo@fralconsultoria.com.br) on 2018-05-29T19:45:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho Aplicado rmco.pdf: 5691689 bytes, checksum: cfc44af0596b3870fae6745ebf365f25 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Simone de Andrade Lopes Pires (simone.lopes@fgv.br) on 2018-05-29T21:29:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho Aplicado rmco.pdf: 5691689 bytes, checksum: cfc44af0596b3870fae6745ebf365f25 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-05-30T14:07:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho Aplicado rmco.pdf: 5691689 bytes, checksum: cfc44af0596b3870fae6745ebf365f25 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-30T14:07:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho Aplicado rmco.pdf: 5691689 bytes, checksum: cfc44af0596b3870fae6745ebf365f25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-28 / O presente trabalho analisou o programa Pay-As-You-Throw (PAYT) como o instrumento econômico presente em milhares de municípios norte-americanos, para o gerenciamento dos resíduos sólidos com o objetivo de replicá-lo no Brasil. Esse sistema busca a sustentabilidade financeira da gestão de resíduos sólidos, a equidade de cobrança do serviço e a redução do impacto ambiental. Por meio do conceito do 'poluidor-pagador' é instituído o pagamento por unidade ao serviço de limpeza, semelhante ao consumo de água e energia. O programa visa a redução na geração de resíduos e consequente redução nos gastos com coleta e destinação, somada a implantação de uma arrecadação específica. As consequências diretas da redução na geração de resíduos são o crescimento no volume de material reciclado, a redução no aterramento de resíduos e a menor dependência de recursos naturais. Parte-se da percepção de que o sistema PAYT obteve êxito em seus objetivos e está presente há mais de 20 anos nos Estados Unidos e em países da Europa (Alemanha, França, Portugal, Itália, Grécia, Finlândia, etc.) e Ásia (Coreia do Sul, Japão). A partir do diagnóstico realizado, foi observada a existência de Fatores Críticos de Sucesso (FCS) determinantes para o seu funcionamento. Foi desenvolvida uma pesquisa qualitativa através de entrevistas semiestruturadas em três municípios norte-americanos, o que possibilitou entender o programa PAYT em profundidade e explorar seus FCS. Foram desenvolvidos os respectivos estudos de caso e analisados de forma cruzada. O estudo examinou o contexto brasileiro para sugerir uma forma de replicar o sistema PAYT na realidade nacional. O estudo constatou que é possível tal replicação como Pague seu Descarte (PSD). Por fim, o trabalho recomenda e sugere como cada FCS poderia ser trabalhado para a melhor implantação do programa PSD. O roteiro de ações é um estímulo para que municípios adotem o programa e contribui para que estudos empíricos possam validar sua efetividade no Brasil. / The present paper analyzed the 'pay as you throw' program as the economic instrument present in thousands of North American municipalities for the management of solid waste with the objective of replicating it to Brazil. This system seeks the financial sustainability of solid waste management, the equity of service tax collection and the reduction of environmental impact. Through the 'polluter pays' concept, payment per unit is established for the cleaning service, similar the consumption of water and energy. The program aims at reducing the generation of waste and consequent reduction in expenses with collection and destination, in addition to the implementation of a specific tax collection. The direct consequences of the reduction in waste generation are the growth in the volume of recycled material, the reduction in waste landfill and less dependence on natural resources. Considering the perception that the PAYT system has succeeded in its objectives and has been present for more than 20 years in the United States and in countries in Europe and Asia. From the diagnosis made, it was observed the existence of Critical Success Factors that are determinant for its functioning. A qualitative research was developed through semi-structured interviews in three North American municipalities that made it possible to understand the PAYT program in depth and to explore its CSF. The respective case studies were developed and cross-analyzed. The study analyzed the Brazilian context to suggest a way to adapt the PAYT system to the national reality. The study found that such an adaptation as 'Pay Your Disposal' (PSD) is possible. Finally, the paper recommends and suggests how each CSF could be worked on for the best implementation of the PSD program. The actions roadmap is a stimulus for municipalities replicate the program and enable empirical studies to validate their effectiveness in Brazil.