Orientadora: Flávia de Campos Mello / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: Não disponível / Abstract: Not available / Doutor

Orientador: Luis Fernando Ayerbe / Banca: Héctor Luis Saint-Pierre / Banca: Igor Fuser / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: A política externa brasileira para a América do Sul durante os anos Lula da Silva (2003-2010) foi considerada enfática e assertiva, visando o desenvolvimento de seu entorno regional como parte de um processo maior de desenvolvimento nacional. No entanto, a análise do cenário sul-americano deste período revela o surgimento de um projeto alternativo ao brasileiro: o bolivariano. O presidente venezuelano Hugo Chávez procurou utilizar os recursos petroleiros, que inundavam seu país durante a bonança econômica dos anos 2000, para financiar iniciativas baseadas nas ideias de Bolívar e no chamado "socialismo do século XXI". Diante da ascensão de um novo projeto regional, este estudo procura indicar de que forma o Brasil de Lula conseguiu garantir a supremacia de seu esquema para a região, representado pela União das Nações Sul-Americanas (UNASUL), frente a alternativa apresentada por Chávez, a Aliança Bolivariana para as Américas (ALBA) / Abstract: Brazilian foreign policy to South America during the years Lula da Silva (2003-2010) was considered emphatic, assertive, aiming to develop its regional environment as part of a larger process of national development. However, analysis of the South American landscape of this period reveals the emergence of an alternative project to Brazil: the Bolivarian. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought to use the oil revenues that flooded their country during the economic boom of the 2000s, to finance based on the ideas of Bolivar and the so-called "socialism of the XXI century" initiatives. Given the rise of a new regional project, this study seeks to outline how Lula's Brazil managed to ensure the supremacy of his scheme for the region, represented by the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), compared to alternative presented by Chavez the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-05T18:29:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2015-08-17. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-02-05T18:33:43Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000857084.pdf: 3157709 bytes, checksum: e3ff8c63b85c0d2ae8a2a85919e6a3f4 (MD5) / Não disponível

Stock market linkages have implications for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, monetary and regulatory policy as well as financial stability. This study examines the extent to which African stock markets are linked using daily data for the period 2000-2010. The study is divided into three main parts each focussing on the ways in which integration of the stock markets can be viewed. Firstly, we analyse the long run co-movement of the stock markets using both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches. Secondly, we analyse returns linkages using Factor analysis and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. In the Factor Analysis model, we used two extraction methods, namely Principal Component Analysis and the Maximurn Likelihood technique. The VAR model was extended with impulse response, variance decomposition and block exogeniety. Thirdly, we analyse the behaviour of volatility and the volatility linkages among the stock markets. We initially analysed and modelled volatility in each stock market using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH and then examined the long-term trend of the volatility. Conditional volatility series for each country were then estimated using the most appropriate model and were analysed using VAR, block exogeniety, impulse response and variance decomposition to determine the extent of their linkages. The findings of the study are as follows: Both the bivariate and multivariate models found slim evidence of cointegration amongst the stock markets, suggesting that there were opportunities for portfolio diversification for investors. In general, the financial crisis had very little impact on the long-run relationships of the stock markets. Results for the returns linkages showed that there were limited retums linkages with the exceptions of South African-Namibia and Egypt-Morocco to a lesser extent. South Africa was found to be the most endogenous, whilst Ghana and Nigeria were the most exogenous on the continent. We regards to volatility, we found that it was asymmetric and persistent across all the stock markets with long term trend of volatility showing that it significantly increased for most of the markets. Finally, there were limited volatility linkages, only between South Africa, Egypt and Namibia, implying that African stock markets are still largely segmented from each other. However, the linkages between South Africa and Egypt could have negative effects as they could lead to the spread of contagion effects during times of crises. Therefore, policymakers should consider revising and improving policies to enhance economic integration on the continent.

Orientador: Mário Augusto Bertella / Banca: Alexandre Sartoris Neto / Banca: Carlos Alberto Cinquetti / Resumo: Ao longo das últimas duas décadas ocorreram várias transformações na economia brasileira, dentre elas o aumento considerável da entrada de IDE. Existem vários fatores que contribuíram para explicar esse fenômeno. Porém, o trabalho utilizou algumas variáveis macroeconômicas que explicam o comportamento do IDE na economia brasileira entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. As variáveis utilizadas foram as transações correntes, taxa de câmbio, PIB a preços correntes, deflacionados pelo IGP-DI e taxa de juros Selic. A ferramenta utilizada para explicar a relação do IDE com os restantes das variáveis foi a co-inegração. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que somente a taxa de juros Selic não tem relação de longo prazo com o IDE, porém as variáveis que conseguem corrigir os desequílibrios do IDE no curto prazo foram as transações correntes e a taxa de câmbio. / Abstract: In the last two decades, many changes had occurred in Brazilian economy, including the considerable increasing of Foreing Direct Investiment (FDI). There are many factors that can contribute to explain this phenomenon. This paper used some macroeconomic variables that explain the FDI's hehavior in the Brazilian economy in the period of January 1999 until December, 2007. The variables used were: interest rate, GDP deflated by IGP, exchange rate and balance of current account. The method used to explain the relation FDI and variables mentionated above was the cointegration. The results showed that only interest rate does not have long period of time relation with the FDI, but the variables that are able to correct the FDI unstability in the short period of time, were the currency transactions and the exchange rate. / Mestre

Thesis (MTech (Business))--Peninsula Technikon, Cape Town, 2002 / South Africa has long been a part of the region although it may be a new comer to some institutions established. One of the reasons why SADC was established was to reduce economic dependence on South Africa. The latter has since its first democratic elections been integrated into the region of South African Development Community which comprises of 14 members. South Africa commands an economy three times the size of all SADC economies. It is believed that the economic spread effects from integration with the South African economy will act as an engine of growth in the region. The effect of South Africa's economic dominant role on other SADC member states is a concern. The study seeks to determine the extent to which South Africa can be of assistance to other member States given its own internal problems such a unemployment and poverty. South Africa has a major role to play in terms of stabilising the region and given the expectations from the international community. It has vested interest in the region as it exports more than it imports from the region. The region has potential for investment opportunities and that is made impossible by political instability and political intolerance in the region. The SADC is faced with a serious question whether a member state can enter in the internal affairs of another member state whose internal activities adversely affect the economy of that particular country and that of other member states.

Thesis (DTech (Informatics))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2012. / The rapid growth of Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions have attracted global attention to Chinese businesses. As new mechanisms of Chinese expansion in the international business arena, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have necessitated indepth academic studies of the risks associated with these activities from a Chinese business context. The influence of the Chinese government's domination of Chinese business is not only presented as different merger and acquisition tactics, but also as styles of operation and management in the process of integration. In cooperating with different counterparts, the shareholders of both acquiring and acquired companies are seeking solutions to related structural and operational changes. This relies on an effective risk management system to achieve a successful synergistic alliance for value creation. In this research study a conceptual framework was developed to identify risks associated with cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The framework aims at identifying risks at threes levels, namely country, business and management. Risks at business and management level are the result of risks at country level, while risks at country level reflect risks at business and management levels. Therefore, risks identified in Chinese inbound mergers and acquisitions will be valuable risk parameters to Chinese outbound mergers and acquisitions. Cooperation during integration is pivotal to successful mergers and acquisitions. Operational and managerial styles of Chinese businesses are profoundly affected by factors such as the Chinese government's role in business, economic policies, laws and regulations, culture, and so forth. This research identifies risks associated with Chinese post- inbound mergers and acquisitions that are impacted upon by Chinese government domination, from a Chinese business perspective. In approaching this objective, this research studied 34 Chinese inbound mergers and acquisitions using a multiple case study method. The research adopted methodological triangulation for collecting evidence, and aimed at using in-depth case analyses to identify risk factors to add academic value to the field of study. As a result, the research findings strongly indicate that the Chinese government's domination has an extensive and intensive impact on risks associated with Chinese businesses in cross-border cooperation. These identified risks include business strategies and operation, policy implementation, legal compliance, and management performance. Consequently, risks associated with Chinese inbound mergers and acquisitions will mirror the risks of Chinese outbound activities. The research results contribute to the practical application for managing risks associated with both Chinese inbound and outbound mergers and acquisitions. As a solution, mitigation of risks is recommended in the process of both pre- and post- mergers and acquisitions. The research provides valuable insights for both risk management and practitioners in mergers and acquisitions, and facilitates the achievement of process synergy.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:29:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-05-28Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:59:42Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_rf_me_arafcl.pdf: 1300455 bytes, checksum: ea912a62b971afe10460e571350fe3f6 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Ao longo das últimas duas décadas ocorreram várias transformações na economia brasileira, dentre elas o aumento considerável da entrada de IDE. Existem vários fatores que contribuíram para explicar esse fenômeno. Porém, o trabalho utilizou algumas variáveis macroeconômicas que explicam o comportamento do IDE na economia brasileira entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2007. As variáveis utilizadas foram as transações correntes, taxa de câmbio, PIB a preços correntes, deflacionados pelo IGP-DI e taxa de juros Selic. A ferramenta utilizada para explicar a relação do IDE com os restantes das variáveis foi a co-inegração. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que somente a taxa de juros Selic não tem relação de longo prazo com o IDE, porém as variáveis que conseguem corrigir os desequílibrios do IDE no curto prazo foram as transações correntes e a taxa de câmbio. / In the last two decades, many changes had occurred in Brazilian economy, including the considerable increasing of Foreing Direct Investiment (FDI). There are many factors that can contribute to explain this phenomenon. This paper used some macroeconomic variables that explain the FDI’s hehavior in the Brazilian economy in the period of January 1999 until December, 2007. The variables used were: interest rate, GDP deflated by IGP, exchange rate and balance of current account. The method used to explain the relation FDI and variables mentionated above was the cointegration. The results showed that only interest rate does not have long period of time relation with the FDI, but the variables that are able to correct the FDI unstability in the short period of time, were the currency transactions and the exchange rate.

Orientador: Pedro Paulo Zahluth Bastos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T09:43:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Garrido_AtilaAlves_M.pdf: 1273801 bytes, checksum: 35cad54946d84201789553c19a620983 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O presente trabalho pretende analisar como ocorreram e vêem ocorrendo os processos de criação, estabilidade e transformação da ordem mundial sob hegemonia estadunidense. Nesse sentido, nele será empreendida uma discussão acerca de como essas questões são tratadas pela teoria do sistema-mundo moderno na concepção de Giovanni Arrighi, e sua aplicabilidade para a análise das transformações ocorridas na ordem mundial a partir dos anos 1970. Mais particularmente, especial atenção é conferida para o período mais recente de reorientação da estratégia estadunidense, no período pós-Guerra Fria. O objetivo será mostrar que a Economia Política Internacional de inspiração marxista ainda parece marcada por lacunas importantes a serem superadas. No caso de Arrighi, apesar de seu modelo fornecer interessantes insights para a análise das transformações das ordens mundiais, ele precisa ser corrigido em alguns pontos para contemplar adequadamente essas transformações a partir dos anos 1970. Muito embora incorpore lutas sociais e conflitos internacionais ao centro da análise, o enfoque de Arrighi ainda parece contaminado por certo viés determinista, herdado, de algum modo, da tendência marxista de procurar "leis históricas" inexoráveis, independentemente da prática consciente dos agentes participantes de uma luta cujo resultado, a princípio, não pode ser facilmente determinado. Em particular, o destino da hegemonia estadunidense não parece passível de predeterminação, embora diferentes cenários possam ser imaginados a partir do resultado variável de confrontos ainda carentes de solução, que nos levem para situações aquém da crise da hegemonia estadunidense, ou da crise catastrófica do capitalismo, como se pretende demonstrar adiante. / Abstract: The present work intends to analyze how occurred and has been occurring the process of creation, stability and transformation of world order under American Hegemony. Therein, in this work it will be undertake a discussion about how the modern world-system theory in the conception of Giovanni Arrighi deals with these questions, and the applicability of its model for the analysis of the world order transformations happened since the 1970's. Principally, special attention will be given to the more recent period of US strategic reorientation since the end of Cold War. The aim will be to show that the International Political Economy of Marxist inspiration still seems to be marked by important gaps to be overcome. In the case of Arrighi, in spite of its model provides interesting insights for the analysis of the transformation of world orders, it needs to be rectified in some points to contemplate in a appropriate way these transformations since the 1970's. Even though it incorporates social and international conflicts to the center of the analysis, Arrighi's approach still seems contaminated by some kind of determinist sloping, inherited, somehow, from the Marxist trend of looking for inexorable "historical laws", independently of the conscious practices of the agents involved in conflicts which the result, in principle, can not be easily determined. Particularly, the destiny of the US hegemony does not seem susceptible of predetermination, although different scenarios may be imagined from the changing results of conflicts that still does not have a solution, which lead us to situations that are beneath the crisis of US hegemony, or the catastrophic crisis of capitalism, as it is intended to show ahead. / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T19:23:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sampaio_AdrianoVilela_D.pdf: 2098495 bytes, checksum: 97b2e5dd41a4628246438bde25c4a9e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Após a crise financeira global de 2008 muito se falou de reformas no sistema monetário internacional (SMI) como resultado das instabilidades ocorridas e da estagnação que se seguiu. Além disso, o acelerado crescimento experimentado pelos países periféricos no período anterior à crise em relação às economias centrais e a maior resiliência dos primeiros à crise de 2008 fez com que aumentasse o interesse pelo papel que estes poderiam desempenhar em tais mudanças. Esta tese busca analisar as duas questões levantadas acima, quais sejam, mudanças no SMI e o protagonismo dos países periféricos. O objetivo central é a análise das mudanças do SMI desde o fim da década de 1990 em função das estratégias defensivas adotadas pelos países periféricos, bem como as perspectivas de mudanças futuras. A hipótese que se busca verificar é se apesar da heterogeneidade existente entre eles, é possível identificar elementos comuns nas estratégias adotadas desde a década de 1990. Tais elementos indicariam a necessidade de buscar uma integração mais segura ao SMI e a busca por um sistema que os tornem menos suscetíveis a crises financeiras, que ampliem sua autonomia de política econômica e que tornem as condicionalidades das instituições internacionais menos restritivas / Abstract: After the 2008 global financial crises voices were raised to claim for reforms on the international monetary system (IMS) as a result of the instabilities and stagnation that followed. Moreover, the good economic performance of the peripheral countries in the period previous to the crisis in relation to the central countries and the resilience of the former to the 2008 crisis brought the interest of many researchers on the role these countries could play in such changes. This thesis deals with the two mentioned questions: changes on the IMS and the role of peripheral countries. The main objective is the analysis of the changes on the IMS since the end of the decade of 1990 in light of the defensive strategies adopted by peripheral countries, as well as the perspectives of further changes. The hypothesis is that despite the heterogeneity existing among them, it is possible to identify common elements on the adopted strategies since the 1990 decade. Such elements suggest the necessity of pursuing a more cautions integration to the IMS and the search for a system that could make them less vulnerable to financial crises, increases their autonomy of political economy and with international institutions that impose less restrictive policies / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas