published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / abstract / Electrical and Electronic Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

Social, political, and economic trends suggest that the United States may soon join other United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) countries in drafting substantive, national climate change policy. After providing a brief overview of past and present climate action taken both nationally and internationally, this paper explores different economic solutions to address the externalities of fossil fuel emissions. Alternatives include command-and-control regulation, a carbon tax, and a cap-and-trade program. Several factors, including domestic political anti-tax sentiment, suggest that a cap-and-trade framework is the most promising market-based alternative to reduce carbon emissions within the United States’s electricity sector. Case studies focus on the power generation components of four Texas utilities: Austin Energy, CPS Energy of San Antonio, NRG Energy, and Luminant and assess cap-and-trade’s ramifications on electricity prices. Utilities would seek to pass through to customers in the form of higher electricity prices up to 100 percent of expenses incurred from mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Three primary factors will determine how a given carbon dioxide cap-and-trade allowance price will affect the electricity price charged by utilities: the carbon intensity of the generation fuel mix, whether the wholesale electricity market is regulated or competitive, and whether greenhouse gas allowances are auctioned or grandfathered to covered entities. Consumer elasticity would determine resulting demand for the higher priced energy. Relatively inelastic electricity consumption could cause electricity sector customers to incur financial losses approximately eight times larger than producers by the year 2020 under a mature cap-and-trade framework. Furthermore, evidence suggests market-based GHG reduction tools such as a cap-and-trade schema alone are not sufficient to decarbonize the electricity generation sector. Without complementary regulatory policies that mandate transition to clean energy sources, cap-and-trade will only succeed in redistributing the opportunity cost associated with the carbon externality. / text

In recent years we have seen increasing debate over the allocation of PNW water resources. In particular there are conflicts over using the river system for irrigation vs. electricity production. Denying the hydroelectric system water implies higher costs to electricity consumers as producers substitute more expensive nonhydro resources. This research looked at the impact of new irrigation on PNW electricity consumers. This was done under varying assumptions of demand response and farmer payments for pumping of irrigation water. The study also examined the difference between the current policy of allowing farmers to take all the water they need, and a policy in which withdrawals are limited in periods of low streamflow. Simulations were run to determine the amount of electricity production lost because of withdrawals. These results were then used in a series of simulations to estimate the economic impacts under the various assumptions and policies. It was found that irrigation caused losses to electricity consumers. In some cases this loss was on the order of $200/acre of irrigated land. The loss was significantly mitigated under the interruptible policy. Farmer payments for irrigation energy also reduced the loss to consumers. / Graduation date: 1985

M.Com. (Econometrics) / An attempt has been made in this study to model electricity sales of Eskom with the aid of an econometric model. The study examines the history of econometric modeling and the applications thereof. These applications include forecasting, policy simulation and policy analysis. The sales of electricity within the specific sales categories is estimated and simulated with the use of an econometric model. The model is specified according to the expected dependent and explanatory variables. The a priori theoretical considerations concerning the size and sign of the parameters of the function are also included in the specification, as well as the mathematical form of the model. The specification process of the econometric model is based on econometric theory and on available information relating to the phenomenon being studied. The method of ordinary least squares is used in the estimation of the parameters of the model. As this is an econometric study, the emphasis is on the evaluation of the results. Economic a priori criteria, statistical criteria and econometric criteria are used to evaluate the results of the parameters obtained by the method of ordinary least squares. Several tests, including the Goldfeld Quandt test for heteroscedasticity, the Durbin-Watson test for auto correlation and the Frisch analysis of multicollinearity are executed. The overall results of the tests to which the model was subjected, was satisfactory. The best functions are combined in a structured model. This model is simulated with the use of the Gauss-Seidel-method and forecasts of historical values are obtained. Statistical tests for the validation of these results, as well as Theil's inequality coefficient are applied to test the forecasting power of the model. The results of the ex post forecast for the period 1988.1 to 1995.1 emphasize the usefulness of the model as a forecasting device and the dynamic simulation demonstrates the ability of the model to reproduce the historical data from which it is estimated.

Thesis (Sc.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING. / Includes bibliographies. / by Martin Frederick Schlecht. / Sc.D.

O presente trabalho buscou avaliar o desempenho de empresas de energia elétrica no Brasil sob a ótica de variáveis ambientais, sociais e de governança corporativa (ESG - sigla inglesa para environmental, social and governance). Para tanto, concentrou-se na análise das companhias de capital aberto que reportam informações sobre suas iniciativas em sustentabilidade, no período de 2010 a 2015. Inicialmente, foi realizada revisão teórica acerca dos conceitos de finanças corporativas, sustentabilidade, valor compartilhado, materialidade e da relação entre mercado financeiro e sustentabilidade, com foco no investimento responsável. A análise quantitativa utilizou de variáveis ESG e econômico-financeiras de dez empresas. Foram realizados três estudos, por meio de regressões com dados em painel, avaliando a relação entre desempenho, caracterizado neste estudo por ROE (sigla inglesa para return on equity), e as variáveis explicativas. O primeiro estudo, que analisou a relação entre ROE e as variáveis ESG, não se mostrou estatisticamente significante, posto isso, não foi possível explicar o desempenho de empresas a partir somente das variáveis ESG. O segundo estudo, que adicionou à primeira análise os indicadores econômico-financeiros, apresentou quatro variáveis estatisticamente significantes, demonstrando que o desempenho de empresas pode ser explicado por variáveis ESG e econômico-financeiras em conjunto: (i) investimento em iniciativas de sustentabilidade; (ii) independência do conselho de administração; (iii) seguro D&O (Directors and Officers Liability Insurance) para administradores e conselheiros; e (iv) margem líquida. Por fim, o terceiro estudo buscou verificar o impacto da medida provisória nº 579 de 2012 (MP579) e apresentou resultado divergente ao esperado pela literatura, não sendo possível afirmar que a edição da MP579 afetou negativamente a rentabilidade das empresas do setor elétrico no Brasil. Este trabalho demonstra que a análise de indicadores ESG não deve ser dissociada da análise de indicadores econômico-financeiros. / The present study aimed to evaluate the performance of electric utilities companies in Brazil from the perspective of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) variables. Therefore, it focused on the analysis of public companies that report on their sustainability initiatives, from 2010 to 2015. Initially, a review of literature was made about corporate finance, sustainability, shared value, materiality and sustainable finance, focusing on responsible investment. The quantitative analysis used ESG and economic-financial variables of ten companies. Three studies were carried out, using regressions with panel data, evaluating the relationship between performance, characterized in this study by ROE (return on equity), and independent variables. The first study, which analyzed the relationship between ROE and ESG variables, was not statistically significant, given that, it was not possible to explain the performance of firms based only on ESG variables. The second study, which added to the first analysis the economic and financial indicators, presented four statistically significant variables, demonstrating that the performance of companies can be explained by ESG and economic-financial variables together: (i) investment in sustainability initiatives; (ii) independence of the board of directors; (iii) D&O insurance (Directors and Officers Liability Insurance) for directors and officers; and (iv) net margin. Finally, the third study sought to verify the impact of provisional measure No. 579 of 2012 (MP579) and presented a different result than expected in the literature, the results showed that it is not possible to state that the MP579 had a negative impact on the profitability of companies in the Brazilian electric utilities sector. This work demonstrates that the analysis of ESG indicators should not be dissociated from the analysis of economic and financial indicators.

As one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, the electricity sector is anticipated to go through the following transitions in order to meet deep decarbonization targets for a sustainable future: 1) on the supply side, the electric grid is increasing its reliance on renewable generation, such as wind and solar; 2) on the demand side, heating is shifting from direct burning of fuel on site to electric, namely heat pumps. This dissertation evaluates the benefits of selected methods to alleviate pressing challenges associated with the electricity sector transitions on both the supply side and the demand side. First, on the supply side, the benefits of renewable generation forecasting coupled with storage are evaluated for an electric grid with high wind energy penetration and load following generation served by fossil fuels. A time series based forecasting method is found to have high forecasting accuracy and low computational costs. This methodology is applied to a real world situation in Sao Vicente, an island with 30% current wind energy penetration. The simulation results show that coupling forecasting and energy storage would further increase the wind penetration up to 38% without additional installation of wind turbines. Second, on the demand side, the benefits of demand side management using heat pumps enabled by the inherent thermal storage of the building envelope are evaluated during extreme cold events when the electric demand peaks and the wind power is often highly fluctuating. A second order thermal model is developed to thoroughly characterize the thermal inertia and leakage of the building envelope and quantify the amount of flexibility the building envelope is able to provide. This methodology is applied to five historical extreme cold events in New York City and the simulation results show that the requirements for short term ramping due to high wind variability are greatly reduced through the sequential controls of the heat pumps. This dissertation also studies the implications of the electricity sector transitions on the residential sector with regard to costs, energy, missions, and policy. Four representative residential city blocks located in three different climate regions of the United States are analyzed using fine spatial and temporal real historical consumption and weather data. Residential blocks in different climate regions have different weather patterns, demand profiles, and local renewable resources. Future energy scenarios with electric heating at high renewable penetration levels are modeled and compared for the representative residential city blocks. Detailed costs comparisons are evaluated for various technological interventions including 1) air source and ground source heat pumps; 2) battery and thermal storage; and 3) wind and solar generation. This dissertation finds that 1) the optimal wind and solar generation mix varies with location and amount of storage and 2) battery storage is more cost effective than thermal storage, ground source heat pumps, and overbuilt renewable generation. In addition, optimal pathways to deep decarbonization for these representative residential city blocks are proposed and compared. Strategic actions are identified for the homes and suggestions are discussed for policy makers and local utilities. This dissertation through its methodologies and analysis enables home owners and policy makers to make cost assessments in achieving the goals of deep decarbonization.