La seguente Tesi di Dottorato si articola in cinque saggi che esaminano alcuni importanti aspetti legati all'energia in Africa subsahariana, e in particolare all'interazione tra lo sviluppo socio-economico e le sue implicazioni per l'ambiente a livello regionale e globale. I saggi sono introdotti da un capitolo di avvicinamento generale ai temi trattati. Questo capitolo prepara il lettore offrendo un riassunto delle principali sfide legate all'energia nel contesto subsariano e formulando le domande di ricerca e gli strumenti sui quali si basa la tesi stessa. Le principali implicazioni di ciascuno dei saggi, sia per la ricerca che per i decisori politici, vengono poi presentate in un capitolo di discussione finale. Il primo saggio esamina la problematica dell’accesso all'energia, e in particolare all'elettricità. Viene illustrato il ruolo dei dati satellitari e dell'analisi statistica dei dati geospaziali nel migliorare la comprensione della situazione dell'accesso all'elettricità in Africa subsahariana. Il saggio include un'analisi delle disuguaglianze che caratterizzano la qualità dell'accesso all'elettricità nella regione. Il risultato principale è che, dopo decenni, la disuguaglianza nell'accesso all'energia sta iniziando a diminuire. Essa rimane però prominente, in particolare per quanto riguarda la quantità di energia consumata. Viene stimato che gli sforzi di elettrificazione tra il 2020 e il 2030 debbano triplicare il loro passo per raggiungere l'obiettivo di sviluppo sostenibile SDG 7.1.1. Il secondo saggio consiste di una piattaforma di valutazione della domanda energetica bottom-up spazialmente esplicita per stimare il fabbisogno energetico tra le comunità in cui l'accesso all'elettricità è attualmente carente, come identificato con la metodologia introdotta nel primo saggio. La valutazione non si limita al fabbisogno energetico residenziale, ma include un resoconto dettagliato, basato sugli usi finali, del fabbisogno energetico di scuole, strutture sanitarie, pompaggio dell'acqua per l'irrigazione, lavorazione delle colture e microimprese, i principali motori dello sviluppo rurale. Viene condotto uno studio nazionale per il Kenya per dimostrare l'importanza di considerare molteplici fonti di domanda oltre al residenziale quando l'obiettivo è sviluppare una strategia di elettrificazione che supperisca veramente alla povertà energetica. Si dimostra poi che esiste un notevole potenziale di crescita della produttività e della redditività rurale grazie all'apporto di energia elettrica. In molte aree, questi profitti locali potrebbero ripagare gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture di elettrificazione in pochi anni. Il terzo saggio analizza un aspetto specifico dell'interazione tra pianificazione dell'accesso all'elettricità, domanda di energia residenziale e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Vengono combinati dati e scenari climatici, satellitari e demografici per produrre una stima globale spazialmente esplicita della domanda di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria non soddisfatta a causa della mancanza di accesso all'elettricità. Sulla base di modelli integrati di elettrificazione climatica-energetica e geospaziale, risulta che in Africa sub-sahariana, l'hotspot globale della povertà energetica, tenere conto del fabbisogno di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria locale stimato (in aggiunta agli obiettivi di consumo residenziale di base) determini una riduzione sostanziale della quota di sistemi standalone come l'opzione di elettrificazione meno costosa entro il 2030, e un importante aumento della capacità di generazione di elettricità e dei requisiti di investimento. Tali risultati suggeriscono la necessità di una maggiore considerazione delle esigenze di adattamento climatico nella pianificazione dei sistemi energetici dei paesi in via di sviluppo e nella valutazione del trade-off tra l'espansione della rete elettrica centrale e sistemi decentralizzati per raggiungere un’elettrificazione universale. La pianificazione dell'elettrificazione deve essere tecnicamente efficiente, ma deve anche considerare l'ambiente politico-economico in cui gli investimenti vengono canalizzati. Il quarto saggio valuta il ruolo della governance e della qualità regolatoria nel quadro di modellazione dell'accesso all'energia elettrica. In particolare, si introduce un indice di governance dell'accesso all'elettricità basato su più indicatori che viene poi implementato nel modello di elettrificazione IMAGE-TIMER. L’effetto dell’indice viene modellato attraverso il suo effetto modificatore sui tassi di sconto privati (una misura del rischio e della disponibilità ad accettare costi futuri rispetto ai costi attuali). I risultati mostrano che la governance e la qualità regolatoria nell'accesso all'elettricità hanno un impatto significativo sul mix tecnologico ottimale e sui flussi di investimenti privati per raggiungere l'elettrificazione universale in Africa subsahariana. In particolare, un ambiente rischioso scoraggia l’investimento da parte dei fornitori privati di soluzioni di accesso decentralizzato all'energia, con il rischio di lasciare molti senza elettricità anche oltre il 2030. Il quinto e ultimo saggio analizza il settore energetico africano da un punto di vista ‘Nexus’. Il saggio valuta l'affidabilità del sistema energetico nei sistemi energetici dominati dall'energia idroelettrica (come in molti paesi dell'Africa centrale e orientale) e del ruolo che i cambiamenti climatici e gli eventi estremi possono esercitare su di esso. Il lavoro combina analisi qualitative e quantitative per (i) proporre un solido framework per evidenziare le interdipendenze tra energia idroelettrica, disponibilità di acqua e cambiamento climatico, (ii) analizzare sistematicamente lo stato dell'arte sugli impatti previsti dei cambiamenti climatici su l'energia idroelettrica nell'Africa subsahariana e (iii) fornire evidenza empirica sui trend passati e sulle traiettorie di sviluppo futuro del settore. I risultati suggeriscono che il cambiamento climatico influenzerà l'affidabilità e la sicurezza della fornitura elettrica attraverso diversi canali. Ad esempio, molti dei principali bacini idrologici sono stati caratterizzati da una diminuzione del livello idrico nel corso del ventesimo secolo. Si evidenzia come tuttavia una diversificazione del mix di generazione elettrico sia finora stata promossa solo in un numero limitato di paesi. Si suggerisce infine che l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili variabili con l'energia idroelettrica possa aumentare la resilienza del sistema. / This dissertation is a collection of five essays examining some important energy-related aspects at the interplay of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s development and its interactions with the regional and global environment. The essays are introduced by a general overview chapter – highlighting the core energy-related challenges of SSA and the scope of this work. The main implications of the essays, both for research and for policymakers, are then considered in the final discussion chapter. The first essay focuses on access to modern energy, and chiefly on electricity. I illustrate the role of satellite data and the statistical analysis of geospatial data in improving the understanding of the electricity access situation in sub-Saharan Africa. The essay includes an analysis of inequality characterising the electricity access quality in the region. The main finding is that after decades, energy access inequality is beginning to decline but it remains prominent in particular as far as the quantity consumed is concerned. I find that electrification efforts between 2020 and 2030 must triplicate their pace to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7.1.1. The second essay develops a spatially-explicit bottom-up energy demand assessment platform to estimate the energy needs among communities where access to electricity is currently lacking, as identified with the methodology introduced in the first essay. The assessment is not restricted to residential energy needs, but it includes a detailed, appliance-based account of power needs for schools, healthcare facilities, water pumping for irrigation, crop processing, and micro enterprises, the key drivers of rural development. I carry out a country-study for Kenya to show the importance of considering multiple demand sources beyond residential when the aim is developing an electrification strategy which truly overcomes energy poverty. I also show that there is considerable potential for rural productivity and profitability growth thanks to the input of electric energy. In many areas, these local profits might pay back the electrification infrastructure investment in only few years. The third essay analyses a specific aspect at the interplay between electricity access planning, household energy demand and climate change adaptation. I combine climate, satellite, and demographic data and scenarios to produce a global spatially-explicit estimate of unmet ACC demand due to the lack of electricity access. Based on integrated climate-energy and geospatial electrification modelling, I find that in sub-Saharan Africa, the global hotspot of energy poverty, accounting for the estimated local ACC needs on top of baseline residential consumption targets determines a substantial reduction in the share of decentralised systems as the least-cost electrification option by 2030, and a major ramp-up in the power generation capacity and investment requirements. My results call for a greater consideration of climate adaptation needs in the planning of energy systems of developing countries and in evaluating the trade-off between the central power grid expansion and decentralised systems to achieve universal electrification. Electrification planning must be techno-economically efficient, but it must also consider the political-economic environment where investment needs to be channelled. The fourth essay evaluates the role of governance and regulatory quality in the electricity access modelling framework. In particular, I introduce an Electricity Access Governance Index based on multiple indicators implement it into the PBL’s IMAGE-TIMER electrification model through its modifier effect on private discount rates (a measure of risk and willingness to accept future costs vis-à-vis present costs). The results show that governance and regulatory quality in electricity access have a significant impact on the optimal technological mix and the private investment flows for reaching universal electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, risky environment crowd out private providers of decentralised energy access solutions with the risk of leaving many without electricity even after 2030. The fifth and final essay takes a nexus perspective in the analysis of the African power sector. It deals with the reliability of the energy system in hydropower-dominated power systems (such as in many countries in Central and East Africa) and the role that climate change and extreme events can exert on it. The essay combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to (i) propose a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change, (ii) systematically review the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa, and (iii) provide supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections. I find that climate change can affect supply reliability and security in multiple ways. For instance, several major river basins have been drying throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, I highlight that diversification has hitherto only been promoted in a limited number of countries. I suggest how integrating variable renewables and hydropower can increase system resilience.

Through theory and econometric instrumentals, this work intends to estimate the behavior of Electric Energy’s Demand Curve to Brazil, through the behavior of important variables for residential sector, industrial and commercial sectors. It’s important to achievement for futures projections that enable to know if installed capacity is enough to answer Energy demand. Using Co-integration concept, were estimated the Vector Error Correction, used to project the demand to the period of 2009-2017. There were some obstacles regarding the estimation of the curve of the industrial sector with respect to the variable IPA-OG industrial machinery and equipment and IPA-OG fuels and lubricants, where their estimated coefficients were inconclusive. Energy consumption by the residential sector is showing increasing but at a decreasing rate, and was influenced by the efficiency of consumption (consumer behavior on the part of the post-rationing and the use of more efficient equipment for the use of electricity). As results, the Energy’s demand is growing and may be superior to installed capacity. Was introduced the Social Cost Politic concept to Energy’s demand and the results show that it politics can reduce the demand, and it can be used as a restrictive measure to Energy’s demand, rather than aggressive restrictive politics. / Com base em subsídios teóricos e no instrumental econométrico, este trabalho pretende estimar o comportamento da Curva de Demanda por energia elétrica para o Brasil, considerando o comportamento de variáveis relevante aos setores residencial, comercial e industrial. A estimação da curva de demanda propicia um instrumental que permite a realização de projeções futuras, as quais por sua vez, permitem verificar se a capacidade instalada de energia atende adequadamente a expectativa de demanda por este produto. Pelo conceito de Co-integração, foram estimados os Modelos de Correção de Erros (VEC), utilizado para projetar o consumo para o período de 2009-2017. De forma geral, os resultados alcançados foram bons, não tendo coeficientes não significativos e sendo os sinais dos parâmetros concernentes à teoria econômica. Houve alguns entraves quanto à estimação da curva do setor industrial com relação à variável IPA-OG máquinas e equipamentos industriais e IPA-OG combustíveis e lubrificantes, onde seus coeficientes estimados foram inconclusivos. Utilizou-se, pois, novas proxies para tais variáveis, a saber, câmbio real efetivo e preço médio – óleo combustível. Através dos resultados alcançados, o consumo crescente de energia pode ser superior a capacidade de fornecimento de energia, evidenciando a necessidade de implantação de políticas restritivas ao consumo de energia. O consumo de energia por parte do setor residencial se mostra crescente, mas a uma taxa decrescente, sendo influenciado pela maior eficiência do consumo (comportamento por parte do consumidor pós-racionamento e utilização de equipamentos mais eficientes quanto ao uso da energia elétrica). Buscou-se introduzir o conceito de Custo Social ao consumo de energia e os resultados mostram que dentre os setores, o industrial sofrera maior penalidade no consumo e que tal política pode proporcionar redução no consumo, podendo ser esta política utilizada como medida restritiva para a demanda por energia.

M.A. / Although South Africa is a country endowed with abundant energy resources (fuels such as coal, uranium and gas), biomass is the prime source of energy for cooking and heating in the rural domestic sector. Fuelwood is the common biomass used, followed by crop residues and animal dung. This research examines the environmental and socio-economic impacts of biomass energy consumption in the Mbhokota village in the Northern Province. The research was conducted by means of a field survey. Data collection methods included administering questionnaires to those who are involved in fuelwood collection (mostly women), interviews with various interested groups and personal observation of the affected sites, and a review of literature relevant to this study. The use of biomass as a source of fuel has much wider implications for the social and biophysical environments. The excessive cutting of trees for fuel leads to a reduction in the diversity of plant species and destruction of habitat for wildlife. Loss of soil cover through the use of crop residues increases soil erosion and thus reduces the agricultural production. The use of biomass fuels gives rise to high levels of indoor air pollution which affects the health of people. As fuelwood supplies diminish, people must travel further and hence spend more time collecting wood. Greater time spent collecting wood means that less time is spent on food production and other household activities (farming, childcare, housekeeping, socialising and educating themselves). Other issues of concern include the high cost of purchasing wood from vendors and personal security in places where wood is collected. The above factors do not only entrench poverty, but also have dire implications for the rural economy. This study has shown that the present patterns of fuelwood collection inflict permanent damage on the environment, reducing its ability to provide further fuel in the future. The implication is that the supply of fuelwood can no longer be guaranteed in some parts of the study area, leading to the use of crop residues and animal dung. This report also highlights the recommendations and management measures (based on the results of the study) that can be used in mitigating the impacts of biomass energy use. These include the introduction of improved stoves, use of solar energy as an alternative energy source, empowerment of women, establishment of community based projects and integrating energy with rural development

La Directive européenne et les politiques de prévention du changement climatique conduisentà un développement important des Énergies Renouvelables pour la production d'électricité. Cecontexte politique est en train d'induire l'insertion massive de production intermittente d'origineéolien dans les réseaux électriques. Pour répondre à la question des limites de l'intégration de l'éoliendans les réseaux électriques, nous nous appuyons sur l'étude des aspects technique et économiques.Dans ce cadre, cette thèse s'intéresse d'une part à l'étude de l'efficacité des dispositifs d'incitationéconomique du point de vue de leur efficacité à stimuler la croissance de l'énergie éolienne et d'autrepart, aux problématiques techniques de court et long terme liées à l'intermittence de l'éolien. Dans lecourt-terme, les problèmes du réseau électrique ainsi que les ajustements dans le marché del'électricité sont abordés. Dans le long terme, l'impact de l'éolien sur la sûreté de fonctionnement estévalué au moyen d'un algorithme de calcul du crédit de capacité de l'éolien. / The development of Renewable Energy for electricity production has increased due to theEuropean policies and directives to prevent climate change. This political context is promoting amassive insertion of intermittent wind electricity production into electrical networks. There are stilldoubts about the limitations of integrating wind power into the electrical networks. For this reason,we focus on the study technical and economic aspects to approach these limitations. The firstpurpose of this research is to determine the effectiveness of the economical incentives policies inorder to stimulate growth in the wind power production. The second one is to evaluate the technicalproblems in the short and long term caused by the intermittency of wind power. In the short-term,the problems of power systems as well as the adjustments in the electricity market are discussed. Inthe long term, the impact of wind power reliability (in the network) is evaluated by using an algorithmto calculate the capacity credit of wind power.

The first part of the final thesis is focused on the use of thermovision for diagnosing defects and failures in building industry. Documented history, physical principles and conditions for the measuring of thermographic camera are described in this part. Thermal images of the object described below were used for demonstrating the defects. The second part is dedicated to the elaborated energy assessment for a nine-storey slab block building. In total, there are five energy economic measures developed for the building. Three of those are of structural character and two of those are for building equipment. There are two variants designed based on the measures, one of which is recommended and evalu-ated. The final section is focused on the measurement of slab block building indoor environment (CO2, air temperature, relative humidity, dew point) and its assessment in concern with the current legislation.

The objective of this study is to develop a model to evaluate the economic feasibility of biofuels production, and in particular to isolate the variables crucial to feasibility. The model constructed to define these variables is unique in its ability to accommodate a variety of plants and to integrate all portions of the production process; it was tested on a case study of a Euphorbia lathyris industry. The model minimizes costs of production to determine the best configuration for the industry. Total cost equals the sum of costs incurred in each segment of the process: growth, harvest, transport, and extraction. The solution is determined through a non-linear transportation- transshipment algorithm which describes production as a series of nodes and links. Specific application of the model was analysis of E. lathyris biofuel production in Arizona. Simulations were run examining the sensitivity of biocrude cost to changes in input parameters. Conclusions are summarized as follows. * No change in any single element can reduce final cost sufficiently to enable competitive production in the near future. * The major factor necessary to bring cost into range is improvement in biological yield. Two components of equal importance are tonnage produced per acre and percentage extractables recovered in processing. * Lowering cropping costs provided the most effective improvements of economic inputs. Perennial crops significantly reduced farm costs. * Transportation costs outweighed economies of scale in extraction; extractor location close to crops is more efficient than centralized. The cost minimization model was successfully used to isolate the critical factors for an E. lathyris industry in an arid region. Results determine that this industry would not be competitive in Arizona without dramatic improvements in yields and moderate changes in a combination of input costs. Viability is critically dependent on improvements in tonnage yield produced per acre and percent extractables recovered.

Recent years have seen an unprecedented global increase in the production and use of biofuels. This has been driven primarily by government support for biofuel industries. Soybeans are the only field crop produced in sufficient quantities in the province of KwaZulu- Natal (KZN) that the South African (SA) industrial biofuel strategy identifies as a potential biodiesel feedstock. Thus, this study is an evaluation of the economic feasibility of producing biodiesel on farms from soybeans in the main soybean-producing regions of KZN, using batch processing biodiesel plants. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to simulate observed agricultural land rental rates (estimated at 4.48% of the market value of land) and cropping behaviour of commercial crop farms in the study regions. The model incorporates various alternative crops, crop rotations, tillage techniques, arable land categories and variance-covariance matrices to account for risk in production. All data are on a real 2009/10 basis. The model is used to predict possible farmer investment behaviour and determine the minimum biodiesel subsidy required to stimulate soybean-based biodiesel production in the study areas. Results suggest that biodiesel production is currently not an economically viable alternative to fossil fuel, and that the incentives and commitments outlined by the current industrial biofuel strategy are inadequate to both establish and sustain a domestic biodiesel industry. Under baseline assumptions, a realistic minimum implicit subsidy of R4.37 per litre of biodiesel is required to draw soybean-based biodiesel production into the optimum solution for commercial farms. The economic feasibility of on-farm biodiesel production is highly dependent on the soybean price (i.e., the feedstock input cost) and the soybean oilcake price (i.e., the highest valued byproduct). Thus, future promotion of biodiesel ventures could primarily target a reduction of feedstock costs through the development of new technologies which increase yields of available feedstocks and/or permit the use of lower cost alternatives. Higher subsidy levels are anticipated for: (i) small-scale initiatives (particularly in the absence of a rental market for cropland); (ii) soybean-based biodiesel production in areas with less suitable growing conditions for cultivating soybeans; and (iii) using sunflower and/or canola as biodiesel feedstock. To the author’s knowledge no other previous studies have attempted to quantify the minimum level of support needed to stimulate biodiesel production in South Africa. The SA industrial biofuels strategy promotes a development-oriented strategy with feedstock produced by smallholders and processed by traditional producer-owned cooperatives. However, traditional cooperatives suffer from a myriad of institutional problems that are associated with ill-defined property rights. As such, it is argued that these initiatives will fail to attract the capital and expertise needed to process biodiesel. This research, therefore, highlights the need for South Africa’s current Cooperatives Act to be amended. Accordingly, this also infers a need to revise the proposed SA industrial biofuels strategy. It is concluded that smallholder participation in biodiesel ventures would require a rental market for cropland, co-ownership of the processing plant in a non-traditional cooperative or investor-owned firm, information and training, and a high level of government subsidy. This research advocates that government consider promoting soybean oil extrusion ventures as a means of stimulating rural development for small-scale farming initiatives rather than soybean-based biodiesel production, as they will likely require less government assistance, whilst potentially combating the food versus fuel debate against biofuels. This is compounded by the fact that South Africa has historically been a net importer of both soybean oilcake and soybean oil. Importantly, however, the proliferation of such initiatives should not be based on the current notion of traditional cooperatives. The need for government to play a proactive role in such ventures through facilitating the development of appropriate business models which stimulate private investment in feedstock and processing facilities is clearly evident. / Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2010.

We have dealt with the problem arising from the incongruity between the evolution of the electricity system for meeting the objectives of economic growth, and the human/societal requirements of inclusive and affordable development, and environmental compliance, within the purview of sustainability. We conceive and define the concept of sustainability in the context of national electricity system and adopt an indicator-based hierarchical framework to assess, measure and track its sustainability. The approach necessitates prioritization, quantification and aggregation of multi-dimensional indicators of sustainability. We evaluate the Indian electricity system using this framework by benchmarking the actual dimensional indicator values against upper and lower threshold levels to compute a national electricity system sustainability index (NESSI) for India. The estimated NESSI value for India in 2013 is a low 0.377 (benchmark value is 1), which suggest that India has a substantial sustainability gap to bridge. The approach and the results imply that India or any other emerging/developing country needs to have a serious relook at (i) the goals and targets set for the electricity system, (ii) the set of prioritized technology and policy interventions, and (iii) the models and approaches adopted for strategic electricity planning. The findings from our research clearly indicate that countries like India need to adopt “minimizing sustainability gap” rather than “increasing GDP growth” as the sole criterion for deciding about the challenges raised above for the electricity system. We strongly believe that this approach will not only meet the economic development objective set for the electricity system but also help achieving the societal aspirations as well as environmental compliance. We establish that Indian electricity system is poised for an imminent transition into a sustainable system. What constitutes the inputs, the processes and the outcomes of this transition are of immense interest and have been widely debated in the literature. We motivate and implement an electricity system generation expansion model with multi-attribute technology characterization to model the sustainability transition of electricity system and understand the feasibility, cost and carbon emission implications of generation augmentation. We build on the state of the art resource and technology characterization. We obtain the expansion planning requirements for Indian electricity system by superimposing the projected incremental increase in demand with the retirement schedule. Further, building on the recent advances in power system modelling, we formulate the electricity system transition problem as a grouped integer generation scheduling and generation expansion planning model. This formulation accounts for plant startups, minimum loads, operating reserves, ramping limits and plant life. We run multiple experiments by varying the system configurations for a planning horizon of 18 years till 2032 and characterize the system on select indicators under three dimensions of sustainability for each year. Within the select scenarios, NESSI value in the terminal year varies from 0.481 to 0.51 relative to the base year value of 0.377.We throw some light on how the important questions concerning technology pathways for electricity system sustainability transition can be queried. The approach adopted for this research is two pronged. First is to formulate and subsequently answer the question: What is and what should be the electricity system of India? The second is to answer: what are the prospects for transition of electricity system into a sustainable state? How do probable technology pathways manifest in terms of national electricity system? Can renewable energy deliver? Our proposition –which we validate through this research – is to formulate and subsequently answer the questions in two phases. The two phases are briefly detailed below: In the first phase, the question we have attempted to first formulate and subsequently answer is: what is and what should be the electricity system for India? We propose to employ an indicator based approach for this part of the research, which attempts to evaluate India’s electricity system using the sustainability framework. The analysis of the indicators belonging to economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions of sustainability will provide a deeper understanding of the system, identify and quantify the prevailing sustainability gaps and develop specific targets for interventions. We begin with a survey of literature in the domain of sustainability assessment. We identify and briefly discuss the essential concepts, ideas and methods used in sustainability assessment. We observe the emergence of electricity related concerns in the wider sustainability discourse. Next, we survey the literature on electricity systems and discuss the intersection of energy systems with development. Than we define the sustainable national electricity system and bring out the synergies between measurement of sustainable development and assessment of objectives of electricity systems. We observe cross country variations in electricity system planning objectives. While focus for developed nations has historically been economic and has subsequently included environmental concerns of climate change and pollution. In addition to economic and environmental aspects, the low levels of access as well as consumption are a reality for India and other developing nations. This adds another dimension to the status assessment and subsequent planning of national electricity system of India. Synthesis of sustainability assessment and objectives of electricity system planning in this phase culminates with conception and evaluation of National Electricity System Sustainability Index (NESSI) for India. The underlying theme throughout this phase is our attempt to first formulate and subsequently answer: What is and what should be the electricity system for India? In the second phase, a modeling approach has been developed to optimally prioritize the interventions (energy-technology supply chains) in response to the specific targets (from Phase 1) for planning a sustainable electricity system for India. All the possible supply chain interventions tracking the transitions from energy resources to electricity in the bus bar on grid (as modeled by a Reference Energy System) form the inputs for the mathematical model. The output is the optimal set of interventions as trade-off solutions, which meet the targets set by the sustainability goal. The criteria like cost, efficiency of transformation, emission coefficients and energy resource availability form the basis for developing the optimal plan. We begin this phase with survey of literature on power system modelling. Electricity system planning has been undertaken in academic and planning domains for several decades. It is only recent that, driven by the imminent challenges of de-carbonization, affordability, equity and security- which has resulted in coevolution of several possible technological, behavioral and policy intervention proposals-there is demand for coherent assessment of these propositions for electricity system transition. In our work, we have focused on supply side technology interventions. Supply side technology intervention propositions for electricity system transition more often than not involve variable renewable energy, i.e., solar and wind. Variable renewable energy technologies pose significant modelling challenges because of their characteristic intermittency which induces complex dynamics in the complimentary system, i.e., electricity generating technologies other than renewable energy. We identify tremendous activity in the domain of electricity system modelling with focus on model representation of electricity system constituents which has significant implications for the outcomes of the planning exercises undertaken with these models. Literature synthesis in this phase culminates with our attempt at mathematical modelling of generation technology pathways for electricity system in transition. Undertaking this exercise has involved preparation of model feeds: energy resource supply profiles, generation technology specifications and demand projections. We have done a series of numerical experiments to establish validity of the model. Subsequently we have validated various scenarios for Indian electricity system representing different levels of transitions, which provides insights which we expect will be useful for the stakeholders. The underlying theme throughout this phase is our attempt to answer the questions: How does one understand electricity system transition? How do electricity generating technologies interact amongst each other to yield certain set of system outputs? Can renewable energy deliver? In our pursuit of finding answers to several questions raised at various points in this thesis and alluded to above, we have done a systematic systemic diagnosis of Indian electricity system. We have developed a multi-dimensional and multi-hierarchical indicator based framework to measure national electricity system sustainability. We have assessed Indian electricity system with this framework, to understand if Indian electricity system is sustainable and how it can transition towards a more sustainable state. Based on this understanding, we have investigated electricity generation technology pathways for a transitioning electricity system. We have modelled India as a single region with aggregate temporal profiles of resource availability and hourly loads. Building on the recent literature on power system modelling and their application, this thesis is a systematic exposition of how the important questions of supply side technology portfolio concerning electricity system sustainability transition can be queried. The results are based on several instances of data inputs. Main contributions from our work are: 1. Introducing the concept of sustainability of national electricity system and defining it comprehensively for the first time. 2. Conceptualizing, developing and validating a multi-dimensional and multi-hierarchical indicator-based framework for assessing and benchmarking national electricity system sustainability. This framework is generalizable and applicable to the electricity systems of all the countries for assessing the sustainability status. 3. A composite measure of National Electricity System Sustainability Index (NESSI), which can be used to identify and quantify prevailing sustainability gaps in the national electricity system and provide a goal for sustainability transition of the electricity system through higher NESSI target values. The constituents (dimensions, themes and indicators) of NESSI can enable identification of interventions and fixing of targets for such a transition. 4. Conceptualized, developed and validated an integrated mathematical model of generation expansion planning (supply augmentation) and generation scheduling with extensive operational details for electricity system in transition. This included: Enumeration and characterization of reference electricity system (energy resources, electricity generating technologies and demand for electricity). Demand profiling which involved estimating annual peak demand and demand for electricity, consideration of annual retiring capacity and computation of representative demand profiles (load curves) for past and future years using time-series load data. Modelling variable renewable energy (wind, solar and hydro) by developing representative energy resource availability profiles using time-series data. Harmonizing the extracted temporal energy resource availability and load profiles to preserve the chronological correlations. Explicit modelling of capacity utilization by proposing and implementing unit profile inversion. Effectively, it implies that generation from the variable generation capacity, e.g., solar capacity is upper bounded by the representative profile corresponding to that capacity. Optimally selected generation technology interventions for planning sustainable electricity system for India under select scenarios. 5. Juxtaposition of indicator-based macro model of electricity system sustainability assessment with bottom-up mathematical model of generation expansion planning and generation scheduling to evaluate official Indian scenarios of electricity system planning for sustainability transition. In summary, we have developed and demonstrated an empirical instance of an integrated methodology, beginning from a systematic diagnosis of the national electricity system to a meaningful solution. Through this thesis, we have attempted to understand the alternate future electricity supply transitions, their implications for society and environment and how they are influenced by the planning decisions. In conclusion, there is substantial activity in all stakeholder domains: research activity, actions by NGOs and the government but given the long term nature of probable interventions, sustained efforts will be required to reach the desired outcomes. Future of grid is the biggest system level problem, which we believe we have illuminated to some extent and which could benefit from further research. While planning exercises using complex models are useful in their own right given the complexities of real world close monitoring and scrutiny of the evolving electricity system and timely course corrections will be critical

Text in English / Energy is the natural power stored in matter which can be potential and kinetic energy. This occurs in nature in various forms such as chemical energy, thermal energy, electromagnetic radiation, gravitational energy, electric energy, elastic energy, nuclear energy, and rest energy. The scientific research relating to nuclear energy has revealed that atoms are the foundation of matter. In 1905 Albert Einstein initiated the quantum revolution utilising the Newtonian mass-energy equivalence concept in order to put his famous equation: E =mc2, where energy is (E). This facilitated the nuclear research which focused on manufacturing the first atomic bomb. In 1945 the USA acquired its first two atomic bombs which were dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, killing 200 000 people; mostly civilians. But nuclear energy research has been redirected by scientists in order to industrialise nuclear technology in order to address growing power needs. This encouraged policy makers to consider the risks posed by utilising nuclear energy for civil purposes. The shift towards peaceful nuclear energy applications has been motivated by the many valuable contributions to humankind which nuclear energy offers - for instance in the fields of energy generation, human health, agriculture and industry. The nature of nuclear energy lends itself to becoming an important component of the world energy and global economic system. Nuclear energy is a viable option for many countries including South Africa, because it offers an economic and clean source of electricity; the primary engine for socio-economic development. South Africa operates the only two nuclear power reactors in Africa, (Koeberg 1 and Koeberg 2) generating 1.8 GWe. South Africa’s energy supply infrastructure consists fundamentally of coal-fired power plants which pose serious threats to the environment. Therefore, it is assumed that the planned 9.6 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030 will meet the requirements of South Africa’s policy regarding the diversification of available energy resources to secure energy supply, support economic growth, and contribute to environmental management. Consequently, the legal system which governs nuclear energy programme is intended to prohibit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, ensure security and maintain the safe operation of nuclear facilities. / Public, Constitutional, & International Law / LL.D.

Energy is the natural power stored in matter which can be potential and kinetic energy. This occurs in nature in various forms such as chemical energy, thermal energy, electromagnetic radiation, gravitational energy, electric energy, elastic energy, nuclear energy, and rest energy. The scientific research relating to nuclear energy has revealed that atoms are the foundation of matter. In 1905 Albert Einstein initiated the quantum revolution utilising the Newtonian mass-energy equivalence concept in order to put his famous equation: E =mc2, where energy is (E). This facilitated the nuclear research which focused on manufacturing the first atomic bomb. In 1945 the USA acquired its first two atomic bombs which were dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, killing 200 000 people; mostly civilians. But nuclear energy research has been redirected by scientists in order to industrialise nuclear technology in order to address growing power needs. This encouraged policy makers to consider the risks posed by utilising nuclear energy for civil purposes. The shift towards peaceful nuclear energy applications has been motivated by the many valuable contributions to humankind which nuclear energy offers - for instance in the fields of energy generation, human health, agriculture and industry. The nature of nuclear energy lends itself to becoming an important component of the world energy and global economic system. Nuclear energy is a viable option for many countries including South Africa, because it offers an economic and clean source of electricity; the primary engine for socio-economic development. South Africa operates the only two nuclear power reactors in Africa, (Koeberg 1 and Koeberg 2) generating 1.8 GWe. South Africa’s energy supply infrastructure consists fundamentally of coal-fired power plants which pose serious threats to the environment. Therefore, it is assumed that the planned 9.6 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030 will meet the requirements of South Africa’s policy regarding the diversification of available energy resources to secure energy supply, support economic growth, and contribute to environmental management. Consequently, the legal system which governs nuclear energy programme is intended to prohibit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, ensure security and maintain the safe operation of nuclear facilities. / Public, Constitutional, and International Law / LL. D.