This thesis investigates the possible future pathways for the road transportation sector of Cyprus, in a time horizon from the year 2013 to 2040. The road transportation sector of Cyprus is the most energy consuming sector in the country, completely dependent on the use of diesel and gasoline. In order to comply with the renewable energy target for the transportation sector set by the European Union, Cyprus needs to transform its road transportation sector. The software MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) is used to model the road transport sector, consisting of passenger and freight transportation. The results of the modelling provides insights into the most cost-effective pathways for Cyprus in the future. In addition to the reference scenario, four different scenarios are examined. These scenarios are focusing on different relevant aspects for Cyprus which are renewable energy, natural gas, public transport and hydrogen. The results of the study indicate that the total numbers of petroleum fueled vehicles will increase in the future, and the freight transport will be particularly difficult to transform. For the passenger transport, there will be a fuel switch from gasoline to diesel, since diesel is less expensive than gasoline. There are possibilities for increasing the numbers of alternative low-carbon emitting vehicle technologies in Cyprus. For the passenger transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are hybrid diesel electric cars, plug-in hybrid diesel electric cars and hybrid electric diesel buses. For the freight transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are natural gas heavy trycks and electric light trucks. Lastly, the results of the study indicate that it will not be possible for Cyprus to reach the renewable energy target for the transportation sector. The country has to investigate in taxation schemes for increasing the numbers of alternative vehicles as well as increasing the blends of biofuels into gasoline and diesel.

Energy poverty is defined as the lack of access of households in developing countries to modern energy sources, and their consequent reliance on solid biomass fuels for cooking. So-called “Improved stoves” have been promoted by various public and private actors since the 1970s to tackle various environmental and health challenges associated with biomass use. Impact studies of such projects are usually based on on-site surveys about the stoves’ use, and thus are extremely site-specific, and difficultly generalizable. This thesis project aims to introduce a novel approach to impact assessment of improved cooking stoves on both local energy needs and deforestation in the area. This approach will base most of its figures and assumptions on calculated energy needs rather than survey reports. This will result in a highly flexible energy model, which can be used and adapted to help decision and policy makers in their function. The area of Nyeri County, Kenya, where the author completed a one-month field study, is used throughout the thesis as a case study in order to validate the model.

“We emphasize the need to address the challenge of access to sustainable modern energy services for all, in particular for the poor, who are unable to afford these services even when they are available.”  Section 126: The Future We Want (Out Come Document of Rio+20-United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development June 20-22, 2012). The lack of energy access has been identified as a hurdle in achieving the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals, leading towards the urge to set a goal for universal electrification till 2030. With around 600 million people in Africa without access to electricity, effective and efficient electrification programs and policy framework is required to achieve this goal sustainably. South Africa is an example in the continent for initiating intense electrification programs and policies like “Free Basic Electricity”, increasing its electrification rate from 30% in 1993 to 75% in 2010 and a claimed 82% in 2011. The case of South Africa has been analysed from the perspective of universal electrification in the coming years. The aim was to estimate the un-electrified households for each area of South Africa in order to provide the basis for electrification planning. The idea was to use available electrification statistics with GIS (Geographic Information System) maps for grid lines and identifying the suitability of on-grid or off-grid electrification options, which may help in planning the electrification of these areas in the near future. However, due to lack of readily available data, the present work has been able to estimate the un-electrified households & their possible electrical load. The estimates have been distributed in different income groups for each province and district municipality of South Africa, which can be used for electrification planning at national, provincial and municipal level.  As a result, some simple and useful data parameters have been identified and an estimation methodology has been developed, which may be employed to obtain similar estimates at lower administrative levels i.e. local municipalities and wards. The work can be utilized further and feasible electrification options may be suggested for different areas of South Africa, with the help of GIS maps and data. Depending on the availability of useful data, the data parameters & indicators used in this work will be helpful for planning the electrification for rural households in other places of Africa.

The European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) constitutes the core instrument of the European Union climate protection policy. It limits greenhouse gas emissions of its member states and aims at facilitating an efficient allocation of emission reduction across national borders. Accompanying this policy at the European level, individual member states have introduced national mitigation policies, including renewable energy (RES) expansion measures or coal phase-outs. This study examines to what extent national policies affect the effectiveness of the EU ETS and to what degree the impact is reflected in prices for European Union Allowances (EUA). To investigate this question, a fundamental optimization model of the European electricity markets is deployed and model endogenous EUA prices are derived with a set of future market scenarios. Overall findings indicate that fundamental market forces strongly affect EUA prices. Furthermore, national policies play a critical role: The expansion of RES does not affect the capacity of the EU ETS to provide sufficient price signals for the desired level of decarbonization but a coal phase-out has a strong price-suppressing effect. A withdrawal of certificates can re-establish the effectiveness of the EU ETS but prices can rise drastically when overestimating the necessary amount.

This thesis explores the role of open online educational resources as a tool for building longterm capacity for Sustainable Development planning. The focus is on energy and climate mitigation related to SDG 7 and 13. In particular the thesis explores medium to long term energy systems analysis and modelling - a critical activity for energy infrastructure development. An open teaching kit and online course for the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) is presented. The OSeMOSYS teaching kit is derived from training and teaching experience on the use of the tool by the OpTIMUS community of practice and its partners. Several international organisations and consortium have long experience in carrying out capacity building initiatives and programmes in energy systems analysis and modelling across the globe. Yet, knowledge transfer, dissemination and application of newly learned tools are not as effective as they might be. Enabling conditions for sustained, effective and contentflexible long-term capacity building and teaching in energy systems analysis is necessary. Yet few accessible resources exist. Availability and access to open educational materials can contribute to the development of solid and long-term capacity, particularly in developing country contexts, which often rely on international support for such activities. The OSeMOSYS open educational resources, including the online course presented in this thesis, provide a ready-made example of an energy systems analysis course that can be directly deployed at higher education levels and in-house capacity building initiatives. Its open nature promotes and facilitates the development of a network of practitioners who can contribute back to the community. Users have the option of contributing to, using and reconfiguring materials and course examples of varying levels and specifics. These can then be shared and taken up by the community of practice. / Detta examensarbete utforskar rollen av öppet tillgängliga onlinebaserade material för inlärning och utlärning som ett verktyg för långvarande kunskap för hållbar utveckling och energiplanering. Fokuserande på energi och minskad klimatpåverkan i relation till hållbarhetsmålen 7 och 13. Mer specifikt utforskar examensarbetet medium till långvarig energisystemsanalys och energimodellering – en nyckelaktivitet för energiinfrastrukturutveckling. Ett öppet utlärnings-kit och onlinekurs för det öppna energimodelleringssystemet OSeMOSYS presenteras. OSeMOSYS utlärnings-kit är framtaget med hjälp av tidigare erfarenheter i utlärning av verktyget utfört av OpTIMUS Community of practice och partners. Flera internationella organisationer och konsortium har lång erfarenhet av att utföra kapacitetsuppbyggnads initiativ och program i energisystemsanalys och energimodellering världen över. Trots detta är kunskapsöverföring, spridning och applicering av nyligen inlärda verktyg inte lika effektiva som de kunnat vara. Att möjliggöra varaktig, effektiv och kontentflexibel långvarig kapacitetsuppbyggnad och utlärning av energisystemsanalys är nödvändigt. Tillgång och tillgänglighet till öppna pedagogiska material kan bidra till utvecklingen av hållbar långvarig kunskap, speciellt i ett utvecklingsland-perspektiv, vilka ofta är beroende av stöd från internationella organisationer för liknande aktiviteter. OSeMOSYS öppna pedagogiska resurser, inkluderande en onlinekurs presenterad i detta examensarbete, bidrar med ett färdigt exempel av en kurs i energisystemsanalys som är direkt applicerbar i högre utbildningsnivåer och landspecifika kapacitetsuppbyggnadsinitiativ. Dess öppna natur främjar och underlättar utvecklingen av ett nätverk av utövare vilka kan bidra tillbaka till samhället. Användare har möjlighet att bidra till, använda och ändra material och kursexempel i varierande svårighetsnivå och specifikt ämne. Dessa kan sedan spridas och tas upp av nätverket av användare för ytterligare samhällsnytta.

Liberalisation of energy markets, climate policy and the promotion of renewable energy have changed the framework conditions of the formerly strictly regulated energy markets. Generating companies are mainly affected by these changing framework conditions as they are exposed to the different risks from liberalised energy markets in combination with huge and largely irreversible investments. Uncertainties facing generating companies include: the development of product prices for electricity as well as for primary energy carriers; technological developments; availability of power plants; the development of regulation and political context, as well as the behaviour of competitors. The need for decision support tools in the energy business, mainly based on operation research models, has therefore significantly increased. Especially to cope with different uncertain parameters, several stochastic modelling approaches have been developed in the last few years for liberalised energy markets. In this context, the present paper aims to give an overview and classification of stochastic models dealing with price risks in electricity markets. The focus is thereby placed on various stochastic methods developed in operation research with practical relevance and applicability, including the concepts of: – stochastic processes for commodity prices (especially for electricity); –scenario generation and reduction, which is important due to the need for a structured handling of large data amounts; as well as –stochastic optimising models for investment decisions, short- and mid-term power production planning and long-term system optimisation. The approaches within the energy business are classified according to the above structure. The practical relevance of the different methods and their applicability to real markets is thereby of crucial importance. Shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by operation research are also discussed.