Submitted by José Elias da Silva Júnior null (jedsjunior@hotmail.com) on 2018-02-28T17:41:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE FINAL CORRIGIDA.pdf: 992178 bytes, checksum: 6cf7663fc6a01c288850e2c6ea550472 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ROSANGELA APARECIDA LOBO null (rosangelalobo@btu.unesp.br) on 2018-03-05T17:48:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silvajunior_je_me_bot.pdf: 992178 bytes, checksum: 6cf7663fc6a01c288850e2c6ea550472 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-05T17:48:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silvajunior_je_me_bot.pdf: 992178 bytes, checksum: 6cf7663fc6a01c288850e2c6ea550472 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-25 / INTRODUÇÃO: A correção endovascular do aneurisma de aorta abdominal (EVAR) modificou o tratamento desta patologia, reduzindo a mortalidade e as complicações, á curto prazo quando comparada à cirurgia aberta. Ainda assim, os pacientes necessitam de seguimento rigoroso a fim de reconhecer as possíveis complicações. O crescimento do diâmetro do saco aneurismático pós-EVAR está relacionado ao risco de rotura ou necessidade de reabordagem, sendo que alguns fatores pré-operatórios podem prever esse aumento. OBJETIVO:Identificar se os sintomas pré-tratamento EVAR podem ser um fator preditivo para a continuidade da expansão do saco aneurismático após tratamento, no seguimento em 12 meses. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo realizado através da coleta de dados do prontuário dos pacientes em seguimento na Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu e que preencheram critérios de inclusão. Os pacientes foram separados em dois grupos de estudos: G1- Pacientes assintomáticos quanto a presença do aneurisma de aorta infrarenal; G2- Pacientes sintomáticos quanto a presença do aneurisma de aorta infrarenal. Todos os grupos foram acompanhados por 12 meses e avaliados quanto ao crescimento do saco aneurismático após o procedimento endovascular, através de AngioTC e Duplex Scan e coleta do exame “proteína C Reativa” para avaliação inflamatória relacionada ao EVAR. RESULTADOS: Foram 9 estudados 112 pacientes. A faixa etária apresentou uma média de 68,6 anos. 80% eram do sexo masculino e 95% brancos. A maioria dos pacientes eram hipertensos e fumantes, 74,1% e 67% respectivamente. No total houve 22,3% de endoleak e o aumento do saco aneurismático foi de 26,8%. Avaliando todos os pacientes, ocorreu diminuição do diâmetro do AAA em média de 0,8cm, entre o pré e pós-operatório. Observou se que 25,3% dos assintomáticos e 30% dos sintomáticos tiveram crescimento do saco aneurismáticos. A presença de endoleak ocorreu em 19% dos assintomáticos e 41,2% dos sintomáticos. No total, 40 % dos pacientes que evoluíram com aumento do saco aneurismático apresentavam endoleak. CONCLUSÃO: Os pacientes que tiveram dor no pré-operatório, portanto, sintomáticos, apresentaram uma taxa numérica maior do crescimento do saco aneurismático em relação ao grupo que não apresentava sintomas, mas este achado não foi estatisticamente significante. A presença do endoleak não foi a única causa do crescimento dos AAAs. Não houve diferença do PCR colhido no pré-operatório em relação ao crescimento do AAA em ambos os grupos. A hipertensão arterial foi a comorbidades mais frequente na nossa casuística. / BACKGROUND: The endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (EVAR) modified its treatment, reducing the mortality and complications in short-term compared to open repair. Even though, patients need strict follow-up to identify possibly complications. The sac aneurysm enlargement after EVAR is related to the risk of rupture or reintervention, with some preoperative factors can predict this enlargement. OBJECTIVE: Identify if the AAA symptons, especially pain, are predictors of abdominal aortic aneurym sac enlargement after EVAR. METHODS: Retrospective study through the gathering of data about the patientes in follow-up in Botucatu School Medicine. The patients were separated in two groups: G1 – assymptomatics in the preoperative; G2 – syptomatic in the preoperative. Both groups were followed-up for 12 months to the sac enlargement through AngioCT, duplex scan and Reative-C-Protein. RESULTS: 112 patientes were analysed. The age average was 68,6 years. 80% were male and 95% white. Most of them were hypertensive and smoker, 74,1% and 67% respectively. There was 22,3% of endoleaks and 26,8% sac enlargement ratio. 25,3% of the assymptomatics and 30% of the symptomatics had sac enlargement. 19% of the assymptomatics compared with 41,2% of the symptomatics had endoleak. 40% of the patients with sac enlargement had endoleaks. CONCLUSION: The symptomatics preoperative patients has a higher risk compared with assymptomatic group. The endoleak is not the only 11 reason for the AAA sac enlargement. There was no difference between the groups G1 and G2 related to AAA sac enlargement and Reative-CProtein. Hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity in our study.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 silvajunior_je_me_bot.pdf: 992178 bytes, checksum: 6cf7663fc6a01c288850e2c6ea550472 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-25 / Não recebi financiamento / A correção endovascular do aneurisma de aorta abdominal (EVAR) modificou o tratamento desta patologia, reduzindo a mortalidade e as complicações, á curto prazo quando comparada à cirurgia aberta. Ainda assim, os pacientes necessitam de seguimento rigoroso a fim de reconhecer as possíveis complicações. O crescimento do diâmetro do saco aneurismático pós-EVAR está relacionado ao risco de rotura ou necessidade de reabordagem, sendo que alguns fatores pré-operatórios podem prever esse aumento. OBJETIVO:Identificar se os sintomas pré-tratamento EVAR podem ser um fator preditivo para a continuidade da expansão do saco aneurismático após tratamento, no seguimento em 12 meses. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo realizado através da coleta de dados do prontuário dos pacientes em seguimento na Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu e que preencheram critérios de inclusão. Os pacientes foram separados em dois grupos de estudos: G1- Pacientes assintomáticos quanto a presença do aneurisma de aorta infrarenal; G2- Pacientes sintomáticos quanto a presença do aneurisma de aorta infrarenal. Todos os grupos foram acompanhados por 12 meses e avaliados quanto ao crescimento do saco aneurismático após o procedimento endovascular, através de AngioTC e Duplex Scan e coleta do exame “proteína C Reativa” para avaliação inflamatória relacionada ao EVAR. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados 112 pacientes. A faixa etária apresentou uma média de 68,6 anos. 80% eram do sexo masculino e 95% brancos. A maioria dos pacientes eram hipertensos e fumantes, 74,1% e 67% respectivamente. No total houve 22,3% de endoleak e o aumento do saco aneurismático foi de 26,8%. Avaliando todos os pacientes, ocorreu diminuição do diâmetro do AAA em média de 0,8cm, entre o pré e pós-operatório. Observou se que 25,3% dos assintomáticos e 30% dos sintomáticos tiveram crescimento do saco aneurismáticos. A presença de endoleak ocorreu em 19% dos assintomáticos e 41,2% dos sintomáticos. No total, 40 % dos pacientes que evoluíram com aumento do saco aneurismático apresentavam endoleak. CONCLUSÃO: Os pacientes que tiveram dor no pré-operatório, portanto, sintomáticos, apresentaram uma taxa numérica maior do crescimento do saco aneurismático em relação ao grupo que não apresentava sintomas, mas este achado não foi estatisticamente significante. A presença do endoleak não foi a única causa do crescimento dos AAAs. Não houve diferença do PCR colhido no pré-operatório em relação ao crescimento do AAA em ambos os grupos. A hipertensão arterial foi a comorbidades mais frequente na nossa casuística. / The endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (EVAR) modified its treatment, reducing the mortality and complications in short-term compared to open repair. Even though, patients need strict follow-up to identify possibly complications. The sac aneurysm enlargement after EVAR is related to the risk of rupture or reintervention, with some preoperative factors can predict this enlargement. OBJECTIVE: Identify if the AAA symptons, especially pain, are predictors of abdominal aortic aneurym sac enlargement after EVAR. METHODS: Retrospective study through the gathering of data about the patientes in follow-up in Botucatu School Medicine. The patients were separated in two groups: G1 – assymptomatics in the preoperative; G2 – syptomatic in the preoperative. Both groups were followed-up for 12 months to the sac enlargement through AngioCT, duplex scan and Reative-C-Protein. RESULTS: 112 patientes were analysed. The age average was 68,6 years. 80% were male and 95% white. Most of them were hypertensive and smoker, 74,1% and 67% respectively. There was 22,3% of endoleaks and 26,8% sac enlargement ratio. 25,3% of the assymptomatics and 30% of the symptomatics had sac enlargement. 19% of the assymptomatics compared with 41,2% of the symptomatics had endoleak. 40% of the patients with sac enlargement had endoleaks. CONCLUSION: The symptomatics preoperative patients has a higher risk compared with assymptomatic group. The endoleak is not the only reason for the AAA sac enlargement. There was no difference between the groups G1 and G2 related to AAA sac enlargement and Reative-CProtein. Hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity in our study.

nÃo hà / A destinaÃÃo final dos resÃduos sÃlidos urbanos à um tema que necessita de mais anÃlise e à tÃpico fundamental na gestÃo urbana de resÃduos sÃlidos. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar a proposta de ampliaÃÃo vertical do Aterro Metropolitano Oeste de Caucaia (ASMOC) no ano de 2008. Como mÃtodo de pesquisa realizou-se revisÃo bibliogrÃfica, documental e pesquisa de campo. Diante dos valores obtidos na anÃlise pode-se observar que Fortaleza possui uma geraÃÃo de resÃduos relevante no valor de 3.000t/dia restando cinco anos de vida Ãtil. Propondo a junÃÃo das cÃlulas seladas aproveitando a rua entre elas e elevando-as mais trinta metros pode-se aproveitar um volume de 5,5 bilhÃes mÂ. Analisando os dados conclui-se que esse mÃtodo pode aumentar a vida Ãtil do aterro por mais trÃs anos. Por meio dos resultados, pode-se inferir que por conta da quantidade de resÃduos recebidos no ASMOC, à necessÃria a implantaÃÃo de aÃÃes que visem a reduÃÃo, reutilizaÃÃo e reciclagem como estratÃgias para minimizar a quantidade de lixo, bem como aÃÃes de educaÃÃo ambiental / The final destination of the urban solid waste is a theme that needs more analysis and it is a fundamental topic in urban management of solid waste. This research had as an objective to analyze the proposal of vertical enlargement of the Aterro Metropolitano Oeste de Caucaia (ASMOC) in the year of 2008. As a research method were used the bibliographical revision, documental revision and field research. From the data gathered from the analysis we could perceive that Fortaleza possess a relevant production of waste in the amount of 3.000t/day, having five years of expected life span. Proposing to put together sealed cells using the street between them and elevating them thirty meters we could acquire a volume of 5,5 billions m3. Analyzing the data we can conclude that this method can increase the life span of the landfill for more three years. From the results we can infer that from the amount of waste placed in the ASMOC itâs necessary the implementation of actions that focus on the reduction, reutilization and recycling as strategies to minimize the amount of waste, as well as actions of environmental education

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo principal explorar y definir los lineamientos de las intervenciones contemporáneas en edificios históricos, y servir de guía para la elaboración de un programa de ampliación para el Museo de Arte de Lima. / Tesis

Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union on January 1, 2007 and are so far the last countries to do so. Before this important step, both countries had undergone a long way of economic transformation from planned to free market economy. The transformation began in the early 1990s but so far it has not been finished. Compared to the other Central and Eastern European countries, Bulgaria and Romania still belong to the least developed ones, which is probably the most important reason why these countries did not join the EU in May 2004 together with other Central and Eastern European countries, but almost three years later, in January 2007. The thesis, however, focuses mainly on what happened after January 2007 and aims at analyzing the first years of Bulgaria and Romania in the enlarged European Union and discuss also possible effects of the upcoming economic and financial crisis on both countries. The subject matter of the thesis is divided into three main chapters, accompanied by introduction and summary of main conclusions. First part (Chapter 2) focuses in detail on the process of economic transformation in both countries, on the summarization of the pre-accession period and on the challenges both countries were facing at that time. Main focus here is on the home economy, foreign economic relations and home affairs including current political situation. Analysis of pre-accession negotiations with the EU focuses both on general issues and also on detailed monitoring of the whole process by the European Commission. Second part (Chapter 3) analyzes in detail the first years of Bulgaria and Romania in the EU. The chapter opens with analysis of nominal convergence and fulfillment of Maastricht criteria and continues with real and structural convergence, analysis of external balances and integration of product and financial markets. Labor mobility, structural aid, development of business environment and main challenges for both economies are discussed as well. Third part (Chapter 4) focuses on the latest development and shows the effects of the current economic and financial crisis on Bulgarian and Romanian economies. The chapter discusses development of short term economic indicators and tries to assess the actual impact of the crisis and macroeconomic development in 2009 and 2010. This is, however, extremely difficult due to persisting uncertainty and absence of robust economic predictions. The analysis thus suffers from unavailability of relevant and up-to-date information and economic data.

La présente thèse traite la modélisation mathématique des risques souverains et ses applications.Dans le premier chapitre, motivé par la crise de la dette souveraine de la zone euro, nous proposons un modèle de risque de défaut souverain. Ce modèle prend en compte aussi bien le mouvement de la solvabilité souveraine que l’impact des événements politiques critiques, en y additionnant un risque de crédit idiosyncratique. Nous nous intéressons aux probabilités que le défaut survienne aux dates d’événements politiques critiques, pour lesquelles nous obtenons des formules analytiques dans un cadre markovien, où nous traitons minutieusement quelques particularités inhabituelles, entre autres le modèle CEV lorsque le paramètre d’élasticité β >1. Nous déterminons de manière explicite le processus compensateur du défaut et montrons que le processus d’intensité n’existe pas, ce qui oppose notre modèle aux approches classiques. Dans le deuxième chapitre, en examinant certains modèles hybrides issus de la littérature, nous considérons une classe de temps aléatoires dont la loi conditionnelle est discontinue et pour lesquels les hypothèses classiques du grossissement de filtrations ne sont pas satisfaites. Nous étendons l’approche de densité à un cadre plus général, où l’hypothèse de Jacod s’assouplit, afin de traiter de tels temps aléatoires dans l’univers du grossissement progressif de filtrations. Nous étudions également des problèmes classiques : le calcul du compensateur, la décomposition de la surmartingale d’Azéma, ainsi que la caractérisation des martingales. La décomposition des martingales et des semi-martingales dans la filtration élargie affirme que l’hypothèse H’ demeure valable dans ce cadre généralisé. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous présentons des applications des modèles proposés dans les chapitres précédents. L’application la plus importante du modèle de défaut souverain et de l’approche de densité généralisée est l’évaluation des titres soumis au risque de défaut. Les résultats expliquent les sauts négatifs importants dans le rendement actuariel de l’obligation à long terme de la Grèce pendant la crise de la dette souveraine. La solvabilité de la Grèce a tendance à s’empirer au fil des années et le rendement de l’obligation a des sauts négatifs lors des événements politiques critiques. En particulier, la taille d’un saut dépend de la gravité d’un choc exogène, du temps écoulé depuis le dernier événement politique, et de la valeur du recouvrement. L’approche de densité généralisée rend aussi possible la modélisation des défauts simultanés qui, bien que rares, ont un impact grave sur le marché. / This dissertation deals with the mathematical modelling of sovereign credit risk and its applications. In Chapter 1, motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign risk model which takes into account both the movement of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events besides the idiosyncratic credit risk. We are interested in the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates, for which we obtain closed-form formulae in a Markovian setting, where we deal with some unusual features, such as a treatment of the CEV model when the elasticity parameter β > 1. We compute explicitly the compensator process of default and show that the intensity process does not exist. In Chapter 2, by studying certain hybrid models in literature on credit risks, we consider a type of random times whose conditional probability distribution is not continuous and by which standard intensity and density hypotheses in the enlargement of filtrations are not satisfied. We propose a generalised density approach, where the hypothesis of Jacod is relaxed, in order to deal with such random times in the framework of progressive enlargement of filtrations We also study classic problems such as the computation of the compensator process of the random time, the decomposition of the Azéma supermartingale, as well as the martingale characterisation. The martingale and semimartingale decompositions in the enlarged filtration show that the H’-hypothesis holds in this generalised framework. In Chapter 3, we display several applications of the models proposed in the previous chapters. The most important application of the hybrid default model and the generalised density approach is the valuation of default claims. The results explain the significant negative jumps in the long-term Greek government bond yield during the sovereign debt crisis. The solvency of Greece tends to fall gradually through time and the bond yield has negative jumps when critical political events are held. In particular, the size of a jump depends on the seriousness of an exogenous shock, the elapsed time since the last political event, and the value of the recovery payment. The generalised density approach also makes possible the modelling of simultaneous defaults, which are rare but may have an important impact.

Diploma thesis "Decision-making process in the Council of the European Union after the enlargement 2004 - common commercial policy" deals with decision- making in the Council of the European Union and focuses in particular on the negotiations at a lower level. The common commercial policy is the target area mainly because of exclusive competences of the European Community. The aim of this thesis is the view of negotiations on the commercial agenda in the Council of the European Union and the coalition groups among Member States. A prerequisite for the analysis is the hypothesis, whether it is possible to derive from coalition groups at a lower level of decision-making the later coalitions in the Council of the European union. The analysis is based on reports of the Committee 133, the key body for the Council of the European Union in the common commercial policy in the period from January 2005 to December 2006. The data set was examined by the cluster analysis method.

This diploma thesis examines with the Dutch attitude towards enlargement of the European Union. In Netherlands the EU enlargement is a politically sensitive issue. Dutch foreign policy is traditionally closely connected with the concept of "merchant and the vicar", reflecting both values of the society and national interests. Interestingly the attitude of the government, reflecting the public opinion, is much more conservative compared to other member states and strictly support the democratic conditionality as the core strategy of the EU to induce candidate states to comply with its human rights and democracy standards. Netherlands gives also special value to the need to give particular regards to the current absorption capacity of EU. The main purpose of the thesis is to evaluate to what extent is the official attitude of the Dutch government towards enlargement shaped by either interests or values of the society as a whole. I put the current Dutch attitude in the context of the current development in Serbia, as the most significant candidate state form the region of Western Balkans and Iceland. The thesis analyses two very similar cases: the cooperation with the ICTY in Hague and the Icesave dispute. Netherlands has long and persistently blocked the accession negotiations with Iceland and...

Tomáš Hach - The Politics of EU Enlargement: Montenegro, Macedonia, Serbia Abstract The diploma thesis deals with the topic of the politics of EU enlargement and perspectives of future developments in this area. Its main objectives are to define the politics in theory, to introduce it in the context of the Western Balkans and apply it to the three selected cases - Montenegro, Macedonia and Serbia. The work considers the historical development since 1990's as an important factor with a huge influence on current negotiation, and therefore the thesis pays high attention to that. Besides the historical excursion, the thesis deals with topics of political development, introduces the status of current negotiations and the relationship between the European Union and certain countries since the establishment of the first official contact. Through the comparative case study, despite differing positions of states within the framework of negotiations, it is highlighted that all countries share common problems. The method of compliance and non-compliance generates common problems as well as underlines the particular specifics. An important contribution is also the comparison of individual countries based on fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria in the context of current affairs.

During the eastern enlargement of the EU four emerging countries of the Visegrád Group - Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - joined the community of European states. This significant event notably affected not only the transformation process in the countries mentioned above but also their relations with the EU member states. The aim of this master thesis is to research the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU on economic relations between C.E. countries and Germany, and to answer the question whether the EU accession was the main decisive factor for the dynamic development of economic cooperation between the above mentioned states. The analysis of economic relations focuses on two key dimensions: trade relations and direct investment. The government's policy of supporting the investment activities both in Germany and C.E. countries is also taken into account. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first chapter intends to analyze the integration process of the C.E. countries in the '90s and its influence on the dynamic development of the economic cooperation between Germany and Visegrád Group. The second section deals with the theoretical aspects of international trade and foreign direct investment. This part intends to provide comparative criteria that will help in answering...