O crescimento da demanda por eletricidade tem promovido a diversificação da matriz energética em termos de fontes primárias, porte de geração e alocação dos geradores. Neste cenário, a inserção de geradores de pequeno porte nos sistemas de distribuição tem causado a descentralização da produção de energia elétrica e, no contexto nacional, o alto potencial para geração de eletricidade através de pequenas centrais hidrelétricas e usinas de cogeração tem dado destaque aos geradores síncronos distribuídos. Contudo, é necessário avaliar as implicações da presença dos geradores síncronos em sistemas de distribuição e avaliar se as metodologias já consagradas de análises, operação e normalização técnica estão adequadas. Dentre as principais peculiaridades dos sistemas de distribuição estão a proximidade dos geradores às cargas e a presença de eventos aleatórios de maior amplitude, tais como variações de carga que ocorrem natural e intermitentemente no sistema. Além disso, problemas relacionados a oscilações eletromecânica mal amortecidas podem agora ocorrer em níveis de distribuição e deve-se estabelecer um procedimento para identificação destes modos. Entretanto, o procedimento usual para o estudo de estabilidade a pequenas perturbações pode se tornar inviável, pois a construção do modelo completo é de extrema complexidade e os parâmetros dos elementos em níveis de distribuição são de difícil obtenção. Para reverter estes problemas citados, esta pesquisa oferece um procedimento alternativo para a obtenção dos modos de oscilação eletromecânica em sistemas de distribuição, sugerindo a estimação modal através de dados ambiente. / The electricity demand increase has promoted the energy matrix diversification in terms of primary sources, generation size and allocation of generators. In this scenario, the insertion of small sized generators in distribution systems has caused the power production decentralization and, in the national context, a high potential for generating electricity through small hydroelectric power plants and cogeneration plants has drawn attention to distributed synchronous generators. However, it is necessary to assess the implications of synchronous generators presence in distribution systems and evaluate if the current methodologies of analysis, operation and technical standards are appropriate to this context. Among the main distribution systems particularities, there are the proximity of generators to loads and more significant random perturbations conceptualized as load switching. In addition, problems related to lightly damped modes can occur in distribution and there is a need to establish a procedure for modal identification. However, the usual procedure for the small-signal stability analysis is not adequate to this problem, because the model construction is very complex and the parameters in distribution are very difficult to obtain. To face the challenges, this research provides an alternative procedure for obtaining electromechanical modes in distribution systems, suggesting modal estimation techniques that use measured ambient data.

The increasing demand for high data rate transmission over broadband radio channels has imposed significant challenges in wireless communications. Accurate channel estimation has a major impact on the whole system performance. Specifically, reliable estimate of the channel state information (CSI) is more challenging for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems in doubly selective fading channels than for the slower fading channels over which OFDM has been deployed traditionally. With the help of a basis expansion model (BEM), a novel multivariate autoregressive (AR) process is developed to model the time evolution of the fast fading channel. Relying on pilot symbol aided modulation (PSAM), a novel Kalman smoothing algorithm based on a second-order dynamic model is exploited, where the mean square error (MSE) of the channel estimator is near to that of the optimal Wiener filter. To further improve the performance of channel estimation, a novel low-complexity iterative joint channel estimation and symbol detection procedure is developed for fast fading channels with a small number of pilots and low pilot power to achieve the bit error rate (BER) performance close to when the CSI is known perfectly. The new channel estimation symbol detection technique is robust to variations of the radio channel from the design values and applicable to multiple modulation and coding types. By use of the extrinsic information transfer (EXIT) chart, we investigate the convergence behavior of the new algorithm and analyze the modulation, pilot density, and error correction code selection for good system performance for a given power level. The algorithms developed in this thesis improve the performance of the whole system requiring only low ratios of pilot to data for excellent performance in fast fading channels. / Graduate

En l’espace d’une quarantaine d’année, les connaissances sur l’angiogenèse tumorale ont littéralement explosé. Dans les années 1970, Judah Folkman démontre que les tumeurs ont besoin d’être vascularisées pour continuer à proliférer. Peu de temps après, les protagonistes principaux de l’angiogenèse tumorale ont été découverts, de même que les mécanismes dans lesquels ils sont impliqués. La décennie suivante marque le début des recherches sur les molécules à visée anti-angiogénique et c’est en 2004 que le bevacizumab (Avastin, Roche), premier médicament anti-angiogénique utilisé en oncologie, voit le jour. Parallèlement à cela, l’essor de la modélisation à effets-mixtes couplée aux progrès des outils informatiques ont permis de développer des méthodes d’analyses de données de plus en plus performantes. Dès 2009 L’agence de régulation FDA (Food and Drug Administration) aux Etats-Unis a identifié le rôle central de la modélisation numérique pour mieux analyser les données d’efficacité et de toxicité, préclinique et clinique en cancérologie. Le but de ce projet est d’étudier les effets de différents inhibiteurs de l’angiogenèse sur la dynamique tumorale, en se basant sur une approche populationnelle. Les modèles développés seront des modèles à base d’équations différentielles ordinaires intègrant des données et des informations issues de la littérature. L’objectif de ces modèles est de caractériser la dynamique des tailles tumorales chez les animaux et chez les patients, afin de comprendre les effets des traitements anti-angiogéniques et apporter un soutien pour le développement de ces molécules ou pour la prise de décisions thérapeutiques par les cliniciens. / Within the last 40 years, knowledge of tumor angiogenesis has literally exploded. In the seventies, Judah Folkman demonstrated that tumors need to be vascularized to continue to proliferate. Shortly after, the main protagonists of tumor angiogenesis have been discovered, as well as the mechanisms in which they are involved. The next decade is the beginning of the research on molecules with anti-angiogenic effects and in 2004 bevacizumab (Avastin, Roche), the first antiangiogenic drug used in oncology, was available for treating solid cancer patients. Along with this, the increasing interest of mixed-effects modeling coupled with advances in computer tools allowed developing more efficient methods of data analysis. In 2009, the regulatory agency FDA (Food and Drug Administration) in the United States has identified the central role of numerical modeling to better analyze the efficacy and toxicity preclinical and clinical oncology data. The aim of this project is to study the effects of different angiogenesis inhibitors on tumor dynamics, based on a population approach. The developed models are models based on ordinary differential equations and that integrate data and information from the literature. The objective of these models is to characterize the dynamics of tumor sizes in animals and patients in order to understand the effects of anti-angiogenic treatments and provide support for the development of these molecules, or to help clinicians for therapeutic decision making.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:38:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo Tadeu Fontes.pdf: 858548 bytes, checksum: a4a419e925bed8bf440f7a2fe4835a2e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-08-14 / This work presents a comparative analysis of direction of arrival estimation techniques that use a Uniform Linear Array (ULA) of sensors. In this analysis, we use large ranges of parameters such as signal-to noise ratio, direction of arrival and number of sensors. Initially, the ULA model and its output are described. The estimation techniques (i) correlation, (ii) Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) and (iii) Estimation of Signals Parameters via Rotational Invariant Techniques (ESPRIT) are reviewed and the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) for this estimation problem is derived. The CRLB is the lowest Mean Square Error (MSE) achievable by any unbiased estimator. This limit is compared to the techniques MSE. Furthermore, we numerically obtain estimation resolution as a function of the ULA's number of sensors and the processing time for a pre-determined parameters estimation. We assume that the incident signals are corrupted by additive white gaussian noise. The results show that for only one signal reaching the ULA the correlation and MUSIC MSE are similar and closer the CRLB limit than ESPRIT MSE. Considering two signals reaching the array, we notice that the best choice depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. The same occurs when it comes to resolution. This time, the best method determination is related to the array's number of sensors. ESPRIT is the method that achieves the lowest processing time. / Neste trabalho é apresentada uma análise comparativa de técnicas de estimação do ângulo de chegada de sinais incidentes em uma rede de sensores disposta como um Arranjo Linear Uniforme (ULA - Uniform Linear Array). Nesta análise, utilizam-se extensos intervalos de parâmetros como relação sinal-ruído, direção de chegada e número de sensores. Inicialmente, faz-se a descrição da ULA e a modelagem de sua resposta dada a incidência de sinais. As técnicas de estimação revistas são (i) o método da correlação, (ii) o método da Classificação de Múltiplos Sinais (MUSIC - Multiple Signal Classification) e (iii) o método da Estimação de Parâmetros via Técnicas de Invariânca Rotacional (ESPRIT - Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques). Deduz-se o limite inferior de Cramer-Rao para a ULA, ou seja, o menor Erro Médio Quadrático (MSE - Mean Square Error) que um estimador não-enviesado pode apresentar. Este limite é comparado ao MSE dos métodos descritos por meio de simulações. Além disso, determina-se numericamente a resolução em função do número de sensores da ULA e o tempo de processamento para uma estimativa com parâmetros pré-determinados. Assume-se que os sinais incidentes são corrompidos por ruído gaussiano branco aditivo. Os resultados mostram que para um único sinal incidente na rede o MSE da correlação e do MUSIC são similares e mais próximos do limite inferior de Cramer-Rao que os do ESPRIT. Ao considerar-se dois sinais incidentes, observa-se que a escolha do melhor método depende da relação sinal-ruído. O mesmo ocorre para a resolução, em que a determinação do melhor método está relacionada ao número de sensores da rede. O ESPRIT é o método que apresenta o menor tempo de processamento.

Ao longo das últimas décadas, o advento de geradores síncronos distribuídos têm modificado significativamente a operação dinâmica de sistemas de distribuição. Características dinâmicas que antes eram típicas de sistemas de transmissão estão agora também presentes em sistemas de distribuição. Problemas relacionados a oscilações eletromecânica mal amortecidas, um dos focos de análise do estudo da estabilidade a pequenas perturbações, podem agora afetar também os sistemas de distribuição devido à inserção de geradores síncronos. Ferramentas usualmente utilizadas em sistemas de transmissão para a análise de tais oscilações não são completamente adequadas para analisar os fenômenos que ocorrem nos sistemas de distribuição com geração distribuída, devido a características peculiares desses sistemas, tais como o desequilíbrio de suas fases. Assim, essa pesquisa propõe um procedimento alternativo para analisar a estabilidade a pequenas perturbações de sistemas de distribuição, através da aplicação de técnicas de estimação modal. Abordam-se duas técnicas de estimação modal: os métodos de Prony e o ESPRIT. O primeiro método consiste em uma ferramenta já consagrada para a identificação de oscilações eletromecânicas de baixa frequência. Enquanto o segundo é uma t´técnica usualmente aplicada em análise de transitórios com desempenho satisfatório no contexto de qualidade de energia. Simulações não lineares são realizadas no software ATP, inicialmente sobre um sistema trifásico equilibrado e tais técnicas são aplicadas e comparadas, tornando possível a validação cruzada de ambos os métodos na identificação do modo eletromecânico do sistema. Na sequência, simulações são realizadas em um um sistema trifásico desequilibrado, permitindo avaliar o efeito do desbalanço da carga sobre as oscilações eletromecânicas, sendo essa uma das maiores contribuições desse trabalho. A principal conclusão adquirida é o fato de que um Power System Stabilizer (PSS) pode ser usado para mitigar os impactos prejudiciais das oscilações eletromecânicas em um gerador síncrono distribuído, sendo que esse PSS pode ser projetado a partir de técnicas típicas, assumindo um funcionamento equilibrado desse gerador, e ainda assim ter um desempenho satisfatório para os casos desequilibrados estudados. / Over the last few decades, the advent of distributed synchronous generators has significantly modified the operation and dynamics of distribution systems. Dynamic behaviors that were typical of transmission systems are now also present in distribution systems. Problems related to poorly damped electromechanical oscillations, the focus of small-signal stability studies, can now also affect the distribution systems due to the insertion of synchronous generators. Tools usually employed in large systems for the analysis of these oscillations are not completely appropriate to analyze this phenomena in distribution systems with distributed generation, due to particular characteristics of these systems, such as load imbalance. Therefore, this research proposes an alternative procedure to analyze the small-signal stability of distribution systems, through the application of modal estimation techniques. Two modal estimation techniques are used: the Prony and ESPRIT methods. The former consists of a well-established tool for identifying low-frequency oscillations and the latter was chosen due to its satisfactory performance in works related to power quality, where it is applied in transient analysis. Initially, both modal estimation techniques are applied to the results of nonlinear simulations performed in the Alternative Transients Program for balanced three-phase systems. The modes identified by both techniques exhibit a close match, which provides a cross validation between these techniques. In the sequence, simulations are performed in three-phase unbalanced systems, allowing an evaluation of the effect of load imbalance on the electromechanical oscillations (which is another major contribution of this work). Furthermore, it is concluded from the obtained results that a Power System Stabilizer, designed under the assumption of a balanced operation of the distribution system, can be effectively used to mitigate the detrimental effects of the poorly damped oscillations even when the system operates under unbalanced load conditions.

Ao longo das últimas décadas, o advento de geradores síncronos distribuídos têm modificado significativamente a operação dinâmica de sistemas de distribuição. Características dinâmicas que antes eram típicas de sistemas de transmissão estão agora também presentes em sistemas de distribuição. Problemas relacionados a oscilações eletromecânica mal amortecidas, um dos focos de análise do estudo da estabilidade a pequenas perturbações, podem agora afetar também os sistemas de distribuição devido à inserção de geradores síncronos. Ferramentas usualmente utilizadas em sistemas de transmissão para a análise de tais oscilações não são completamente adequadas para analisar os fenômenos que ocorrem nos sistemas de distribuição com geração distribuída, devido a características peculiares desses sistemas, tais como o desequilíbrio de suas fases. Assim, essa pesquisa propõe um procedimento alternativo para analisar a estabilidade a pequenas perturbações de sistemas de distribuição, através da aplicação de técnicas de estimação modal. Abordam-se duas técnicas de estimação modal: os métodos de Prony e o ESPRIT. O primeiro método consiste em uma ferramenta já consagrada para a identificação de oscilações eletromecânicas de baixa frequência. Enquanto o segundo é uma t´técnica usualmente aplicada em análise de transitórios com desempenho satisfatório no contexto de qualidade de energia. Simulações não lineares são realizadas no software ATP, inicialmente sobre um sistema trifásico equilibrado e tais técnicas são aplicadas e comparadas, tornando possível a validação cruzada de ambos os métodos na identificação do modo eletromecânico do sistema. Na sequência, simulações são realizadas em um um sistema trifásico desequilibrado, permitindo avaliar o efeito do desbalanço da carga sobre as oscilações eletromecânicas, sendo essa uma das maiores contribuições desse trabalho. A principal conclusão adquirida é o fato de que um Power System Stabilizer (PSS) pode ser usado para mitigar os impactos prejudiciais das oscilações eletromecânicas em um gerador síncrono distribuído, sendo que esse PSS pode ser projetado a partir de técnicas típicas, assumindo um funcionamento equilibrado desse gerador, e ainda assim ter um desempenho satisfatório para os casos desequilibrados estudados. / Over the last few decades, the advent of distributed synchronous generators has significantly modified the operation and dynamics of distribution systems. Dynamic behaviors that were typical of transmission systems are now also present in distribution systems. Problems related to poorly damped electromechanical oscillations, the focus of small-signal stability studies, can now also affect the distribution systems due to the insertion of synchronous generators. Tools usually employed in large systems for the analysis of these oscillations are not completely appropriate to analyze this phenomena in distribution systems with distributed generation, due to particular characteristics of these systems, such as load imbalance. Therefore, this research proposes an alternative procedure to analyze the small-signal stability of distribution systems, through the application of modal estimation techniques. Two modal estimation techniques are used: the Prony and ESPRIT methods. The former consists of a well-established tool for identifying low-frequency oscillations and the latter was chosen due to its satisfactory performance in works related to power quality, where it is applied in transient analysis. Initially, both modal estimation techniques are applied to the results of nonlinear simulations performed in the Alternative Transients Program for balanced three-phase systems. The modes identified by both techniques exhibit a close match, which provides a cross validation between these techniques. In the sequence, simulations are performed in three-phase unbalanced systems, allowing an evaluation of the effect of load imbalance on the electromechanical oscillations (which is another major contribution of this work). Furthermore, it is concluded from the obtained results that a Power System Stabilizer, designed under the assumption of a balanced operation of the distribution system, can be effectively used to mitigate the detrimental effects of the poorly damped oscillations even when the system operates under unbalanced load conditions.

This study examines the fundamental determinants of bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries. This is done by exploring the magnitude of exports among these countries. The Gravity model approach is used as the preferred theoretical framework in explaining and evaluating successfully the bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries The empirical part of this study uses panel data methodology covering the time period 2000-2012 and incorporates the five BRICS economies in the sample. The results of the regressions are subject to panel diagnostic test procedures. The study reveals that, on the one hand, there are positive and significant relationships between South African export flows with the BRICs and distance, language dummy, the BRICs’ GDP, the BRICs’ openness and population in South Africa. On the other hand, GDP in South Africa, real exchange rate and time dummy are found to be negatively related to export flows. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Development of dynamic state estimation techniques and their applications in problems of identification in structural engineering have been taken up. The thrust of the study has been the identification of structural systems that exhibit nonlinear behavior, mainly in the form of constitutive and geometric nonlinearities. Methods encompassing both linearization based strategies and those involving nonlinear filtering have been explored. The applications of derivative-free locally transversal linearization (LTL) and multi-step transversal linearization (MTrL) schemes for developing newer forms of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm have been explored. Apart from the inherent advantages of these methods in avoiding gradient calculations, the study also demonstrates their superior numerical accuracy and considerably less sensitivity to the choice of step sizes. The range of numerical illustrations covers SDOF as well as MDOF oscillators with time-invariant parameters and those with discontinuous temporal variations. A new form of the sequential importance sampling (SIS) filter is developed which explores the scope of the existing SIS filters to cover nonlinear measurement equations and more general forms of noise involving multiplicative and (or) Gaussian/ non-Gaussian noises. The formulation of this method involves Ito-Taylor’s expansions of the nonlinear functions in the measurement equation and the development of the ideal ispdf while accounting for the non-Gaussian terms appearing in the governing equation. Numerical illustrations on parameter identification of a few nonlinear oscillators and a geometrically nonlinear Euler–Bernoulli beam reveal a remarkably improved performance of the proposed methods over one of the best known algorithms, i.e. the unscented particle filter. The study demonstrates the applicability of diverse range of mathematical tools including Magnus’ functional expansions, theory of SDE-s, Ito-Taylor’s expansions and simulation and characterization of the non-Gaussian random variables to the problem of nonlinear structural system identification.

This study examines the fundamental determinants of bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries. This is done by exploring the magnitude of exports among these countries. The Gravity model approach is used as the preferred theoretical framework in explaining and evaluating successfully the bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries The empirical part of this study uses panel data methodology covering the time period 2000-2012 and incorporates the five BRICS economies in the sample. The results of the regressions are subject to panel diagnostic test procedures. The study reveals that, on the one hand, there are positive and significant relationships between South African export flows with the BRICs and distance, language dummy, the BRICs’ GDP, the BRICs’ openness and population in South Africa. On the other hand, GDP in South Africa, real exchange rate and time dummy are found to be negatively related to export flows. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Human activities have increased the concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere, thus it has caused global warming. Construction equipment are semi-stationary machines and spend at least 30% of its life time during idling. The majority of the construction equipment is diesel powered and emits toxic emission into the environment. In this work, the idling will be investigated through adopting several statistical regressions models to quantify the fuel consumption of construction equipment during idling. The regression models which are studied in this work: Multivariate Linear Regression (ML-R), Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM-R), Gaussian Process regression (GP-R), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Partial Least Square Regression (PLS-R) and Principal Components Regression (PC-R). Findings show that pre-processing has a significant impact on the goodness of the prediction of the explanatory data analysis in this field. Moreover, through mean centering and application of the max-min scaling feature, the accuracy of models increased remarkably. ANN and GP-R had the highest accuracy (99%), PLS-R was the third accurate model (98% accuracy), ML-R was the fourth-best model (97% accuracy), SVM-R was the fifth-best (73% accuracy) and the lowest accuracy was recorded for PC-R (83% accuracy). The second part of this project estimated the CO2 emission based on the fuel used and by adopting the NONROAD2008 model.  Keywords: