Die Dissertation untersucht verschiedene Einflussfaktoren auf die Finanzierungskosten von Staaten. Dabei werden die Eurokrise, Rohstoffpreise und Klimawandel als drei wesentliche Einflussfaktoren herangezogen und deren empirische Wichtigkeit statistisch untersucht. Ein weiterer Artikel beschäftigt sich mit der Integration von Finanzmärkten auf die Ausbreitung von Konjunkturzyklen.:Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation: The Curious Case and Multiple Facets of Sovereign Debt . . . . 1 1.2 Outline and Contribution of this Thesis to the Literature . . . . . . . . . . . 6 A.1 Appendix to Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 References to Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 2: Avoiding the Fall into the Loop: Isolating the Transmission of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress in the Euro Area 19 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.3 Data Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.1 Deriving Country-Specific Bank Distress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Instrumenting Bank Distress using Exposure-Weighted Stock Market Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.3.3 Set of Dependent and Explanatory Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.3.3.1 Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.3.3.2 Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.4 Empirical Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.5 Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.5.1 Comparison of IV and OLS during Eurozone Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.5.2 Alternative Versions of the Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.5.3 Alternative Versions for Bank Distress Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.5.4 Alternative Versions for Instrumental Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.5.5 Strengthening the Exclusion Restriction of the Instrument . . . . . . . 46 2.5.6 Weekly Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.5.7 Alternative Control Variables and Time Fixed Effects . . . . . . . . . 49 2.5.8 Wild Cluster Bootstrapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 2.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 A.2 Appendix to Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 A.2.1 Drivers of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress Transmissions . . . . . . . . . . 54 A.2.1.1 Macroeconomic Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 A.2.1.2 Government Bond Issuances, Redemptions and Holdings . . 62 A.2.1.3 Banking Sector Structure and Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 A.2.1.4 Political Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 A.2.2 Additional Tables and Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 References to Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Chapter 3: What drives the Commodity-Sovereign Risk Dependence in Emerging Market Economies? 87 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.2 Data, Variables and Summary Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2.1 Dependent Variable: Sovereign Default Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2.2 Deriving Country-specific Commodity Performance . . . . . . . . . . . 94 3.2.3 Set of Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 3.3 Empirical Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3.1 Baseline Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3.2 Alternative Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.4 Drivers of the Commodity-Sovereign Risk Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 3.4.1 Commodity-related Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 3.4.2 Macroeconomic and International Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 3.4.3 Policy Measures against Commodity Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 3.5 Robustness Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 3.5.1 Dropping Countries with Liquidity Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 3.5.2 Alternative Specifications for EMBI and Commodity Performance . . 129 3.5.3 Alternative Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 3.5.4 Alternative Fixed Effects, Frequency, Clustering and Time Series Results131 3.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 A.3 Appendix to Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 References to Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Chapter 4: Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe 145 4.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 4.2 Empirical Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 4.2.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 4.2.2 Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.3 Estimation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.3.1 Results for Overall Output Fluctuations (GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.3.2 Results for Industrial Output Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 4.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 A.4 Appendix to Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 References to Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 Chapter 5: Physical Climate Change Risks and the Sovereign Creditworthiness of Emerging Economies 182 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 5.2 Physical Climate Change Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 5.2.1 Physical Climate Change Risk in Contrast to Transition Risk . . . . . 187 5.2.2 Physical Climate Change and Sovereign Creditworthiness . . . . . . . 189 5.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.3.1 Sovereign Creditworthiness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.3.2 Temperature Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 5.4 Empirical Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 5.5 Channels of Temperature-Sovereign Risk Connection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 5.5.1 General Warmness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 5.5.2 Seasonality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 5.5.3 Month and Season Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 5.5.4 Economic Sector Specialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 5.5.5 Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 5.5.6 Combining relevant Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 5.6 Robustness Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 5.6.1 Changing the Fixed Effects Specification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 5.6.2 Changing the Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 5.6.3 Changing the Lag Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 5.6.4 Changing the Historical Temperature Average Period . . . . . . . . . . 222 5.6.5 Dropping Countries with lower Data Coverage and larger Landmass . 226 5.6.6 Other Temperature Anomaly Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 5.6.7 Analyzing Debt Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 5.6.8 Testing for Transition Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 5.6.9 Changing Economic Sector Specialization Measures . . . . . . . . . . . 231 5.7 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 A.5 Appendix to Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 References to Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247

Magister Artium (Social Work) - MA(SW) / The time period of this study is the contemporary first half of the Nineties, a momentous time in the history of South Africa. The country is passing from apartheid (the "old" South Africa) to the hope of democracy (the "new" South Africa). Nelson Mandela was inaugurated as President of South Africa in May 1994. Social workers, too, find themselves in transition. What is the thinking of experienced progressive social workers at this historical moment, concerning themselves and their profession within its context of social welfare as societal institution? This is the question I explore, specifically with reference to senior social workers within the area of greater Cape Town It is important to note that in terms of the research philosophy underlying this enquiry, the methodological process of the thesis is integral to its substance. My approach, along "New Paradigm" lines, is descriptive dialogical. Implicit in it is a "confrontation of the positivistic epistemology of 'The Scientific Method' in the misguided sense of an 'absolute and only' method of science, which unfortunately is still prevalent in standard practices of enquiry inside and outside the university" (see Note [i] at the end of this Summary). My thesis therefore offers not only outcomes but, as much as possible, also the process of the enquiry. A descriptive-dialogical approach also takes the idea of narrative seriously, "narrative being a mode that makes room for in fact, that insists on more than merely written presentation" (see Note [ii] at the end of this Summary). My research philosophy and methodology accommodate as far as possible "the whole academic and professional potential of a student, rather than just the student's writing potential" (see Note [iii] at the end of this Summary). In line with this, I submit as an accompaniment to this writing -- and as holistically intrinsic to this thesis -- a relevant video-recording and audio recordings illustrating myself at work in the execution of this study. In conclusion of this Summary I must indicate my promoter's and my own serious commitment to the possibility of creative indigenousness of academic style and presentation. This must be viewed within African and South African context, and it explains much of the "humanistically holistic" tenor of this study. This, of course, is in no way intended to discount the worthwhileness and substantiality, in fact the necessity for us, of recourse to the best tenets of European and Euro-American university tradition.

The diploma thesis focuses on description and analysis of the global crisis that began in 2007. It also evaluates measures taken by the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank in response to this crisis. Thesis contains evaluation of used measure. It includes dealing with the crisis by two selected banks in the Czech Republic.

The diploma thesis focuses on description and analysis of the global crisis that began in 2007. It also evaluates measures taken by the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank in response to this crisis. Thesis contains evaluation of used measure. It includes dealing with the crisis by two selected banks in the Czech Republic.

This master’s thesis presents an overview of the basic forces acting on the vehicle, the basic methods of analysis of accident, collection of data used in the analysis of accidents, an overview of the basic performance criteria and thresholds used in the homologation test of occupant protection in a frontal impact, used crash tests, homologation tests and specifications for these tests. Attention is paid to Euro NCAP crash tests and to homologation tests of vehicles Skoda Octavia with aim to try to compare them with selected accidents in terms of depth and character deformation and evaluate findings comparision.

Le but de cette thèse en cinq chapitres est d’ouvrir de nouvelles perspectives autour de l’opposition qui existe entre la théorie de la diversification et le biais d’investissement domestique notamment pour les investisseurs Européens, Américains et Japonais. En effet, le développement des nouvelles technologies au sein des marchés financiers, a engendré, l’apparition de nouveaux types de produits : notamment les fonds indiciels cotés, qui permettent aux investisseurs d’accéder à une exposition indirecte dans leurs propres unités monétaires (Euro, Dollars et Yen) ou d’investir aisément dans n’importe quels secteurs ou classes d’actifs. L’arrivée de ces nouvelles technologies signe aussi l’émergence de nouvelles formes d’approches d’investissements basées sur des modèles algorithmiques automatisés nommés « Smart Beta ». A la lumière de ces innovations, ma thèse, ouvre de nouvelles perspectives sur le biais d’investissement domestique et pose certaines questions sur les approches classiques d’allocation internationales d’actifs. Le premier chapitre donne une vision globale de ma thèse. Le second tend à démontrer que sur les cinq grandes stratégies de « hedge funds », quatre sont accessibles de manière indirecte en utilisant une approche « Smart Beta » d’allocation d’actifs optimisée, composée de fonds indiciels cotés en Euro. Le troisième chapitre permet de montrer qu’il est possible d’atteindre des stratégies actions en Asie Pacifique de type « Momentum » en utilisant une allocation d’actifs composée de fonds indiciels uniquement cotés en Dollars permettant les mêmes rendements/risques sans aucun risque de change. Le quatrième chapitre, analyse la possibilité pour un investisseur Japonais d’atteindre de manière indirecte des expositions équivalente à des stratégies d’investissement internationale en matières premières en utilisant des fonds indiciels cotés en Yen. D’un point de vue scientifique, je contribue au développement des théories sur l’exposition indirecte des fonds indiciel côtés, en démontrant leurs utilités pour les allocations globales d’actifs. Mes résultats tendent aussi à démontrer que les investisseurs Européens, Américains et Japonais qui investissent seulement avec des produits financiers domestiques, ne perdent pas le bénéfice de la diversification internationale. Ma thèse ouvre aussi un nouvel aspect de la littérature sur les « smart beta » de troisième génération, permettant d’éviter le risque de change, en outrepassant le biais d’investissement domestique. Cette nouvelle approche factorielle permet aux investisseurs d’atteindre des expositions de stratégie « internationale active » dans leurs propres unités monétaires favorisant ainsi la diminution des biais cognitifs et comportementaux du biais d’investissement domestique. Le dernier chapitre offre une discussion générale autour de mes résultats ainsi qu’une conclusion finale. De plus chacun des chapitres contribue de manière spécifique à un thème scientifique donné. D’un point de vue méthodologique, différentes méthodes sont utilisées et combinées («data-driven », « optimization » et « heuristic ») pour créer des approches de type « Smart Beta ». Finalement, ma thèse ouvre de nouvelles questions par rapport à ces différents thèmes : est-ce que l’évolution des nouvelles technologies appliquée au marchés financiers diminue la valeur ajoutée de la diversification classique de portefeuille et tend à augmenter l’intégration financière mondiale ? Est-ce que ces nouveaux produits financiers ouvrent de nouvelles façons d’investir en améliorant l’accès à des stratégies d’investissement complexes ? Est-ce que ces nouveaux produits financiers permettent de trouver des solutions aux différents paradigmes de la finance comportementale ? / This five-chapter thesis provides new perspectives on diversification theory and the home-bias puzzle, which exists as an investment approach notably for European, American and Japanese investors. Indeed, information and communications technology (ICT) development has led to the emergence of new type of financial market product. Exchange-traded funds (ETF) allow investors to reach indirect exposure in their own currency (e.g. euro, U.S. dollars (USD) and yen) and invest in any sectors or asset classes. The ICT revolution has led to the emergence of new forms of algorithmic rules-based frameworks as investment approaches. One notable approach is called ‘smart beta’. In light of these, my thesis offers new insight about the home-bias puzzle and raises new questions about international investment approaches and global-asset allocations. Chapter I provides an overview of my thesis. My second chapter shows that a European investor who would like to attain ‘worldwide alternative investment exposure’ using a long-only optimised composition of euro liquid products can do it. Four out of the five most well-known worldwide alternative investment strategies are achievable through an optimised composition of ETFs denominated by euro. My third chapter shows that an American investor who would like to reach intermediate-term momentum exposure denominated by the South Korea won, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, India rupiah, Australian dollars or New Zealand dollars can achieve the exact same risk/return characteristics using an optimised composition of USD ETFs. This implies that it is possible to reach an Asia–Pacific momentum factor without any exchange risk for an American investor. Finally, my fourth chapter analyses the possibility for a Japanese investor to reach ‘international commodities investment exposure’ with the same risk/return characteristics as a liquid yen product. From a scientific perspective, I first extend previous work about ETF indirect exposure and show the usefulness of ETFs in the global-asset allocation context. Second, I show that U.S., European and Japanese investors who invest only in domestically traded products do not have to lose the benefits of international diversification. Third, my thesis opens the door to third-generation smart-beta literature, explaining how to avoid exchange-rate risks and overcome the home-bias puzzle. This new ‘access factor’ approach allows investors to reach exposure in some international active investment strategies using their own currencies, allowing them to overcome the main cognitive and behavioural drivers of home-bias investing. The fifth chapter offers a final global discussion and a conclusion. Each chapter contributes to the scientific support of several specific topics. From a methodological perspective, different investment-strategy models (i.e. data-driven, optimisation and heuristic) are combined to reach the desired smart-beta exposure. Finally, my thesis asks new questions, such as ‘does ICT development and the new products coming with it on the financial markets (e.g. ETF, smart beta) tend to decrease the value added from classical diversification, and does it tend to increase financial integration?’ and ‘Do these new products create new investment approaches using an easy method to access complex investment strategies?’ ‘Do these new products overcome some of the behavioural finance paradigms?’

Monthly returns on twenty-seven Eurobonds from July 1982 to June 1986 were examined. There were no consistent differences in returns based on the country in which a firm is located. There were consistent differences due to industry classification, with energy-related firms exhibiting higher average returns and variances. Excess returns were calculated using the capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory. The results from calculation of mean average deviation, root mean square, and R2 all indicate that the arbitrage pricing theory was a better descriptor of the Eurobond market. The excess returns were also examined using stochastic dominance. Arbitrage pricing theory never dominated the capital asset pricing model using first-order criteria, but consistently dominated using second-order criteria. The results were discussed in terms of the implications for investors and portfolio managers.

The diploma thesis deals with the impact of euro adoption on export. Two basic channels of an impact of the adoption of the common currency are identified, namely the reduction of the exchange rate risk and the loss of an autonomous monetary policy. The main contribution of the thesis is the application of the exchange rate stability index and the index of monetary independence as variables representing the mentioned channels and the assessment of their impact on exports in the empirical analysis. The regression analysis of the panel data with fixed effects is used because of the heterogeneity of EU states. In addition to the aforementioned indices, a foreign demand and the nominal effective exchange rate are included in the models. The results indicate that the exchange rate stability index and a foreign demand have a positive and statistically significant impact on export. The empirical analysis uses monthly data for 25 countries of the European Union during the period from January 1994 to May 2017.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Tunisia is often described as the solitary success among the political transitions which followed. Much has been ascribed to the trade agreement (Euro-Mediterranean Partnership or EMP) between EU and Tunisia in promoting said democracy. Recently, Tunisia has also become dependent on IMF loans. This has raised concerns of the effect of neoliberal policies that are advocated for by the IMF, EU and the World Bank. The correlation between neoliberal policies and political stability is still being debated among scholars and the linear causalities remain unclear. Several scholars have criticised the EU-Tunisian trade agreement and EU policies, claiming that this has led to increased poverty and social instability in the country. This study seeks to determine, in accordance with such critique, if a neoliberal agenda is advocated for by the EU. Previous studies have focused on policy effects of the trade and foreign relations between EU and Tunisia. Instead this study analyses the mutual trade agreement and EU political policy agenda for Tunisia to understand the intent of the EU. A content analysis is used on the Association Agreement as well as the EU Policy Paper `Cadre Unique d’appui 2017-2020´ towards Tunisia.This study uses a definition of neoliberalism based on Joseph Stiglitz well-renowned critique on IMF-policies in developing countries in the 1980s-1990s. The result of the analysis shows that even though policy or trade provisions may correspond to a neoliberal agenda, the overall language in both the trade agreement and the policy documents suggest that EU is well-aware of possible negative effects of neoliberal policies. Throughout the documents EU advocates for a balanced approach including both economic and social interests.The study does not find evidence for EU knowingly pursuing a neoliberal agenda in Tunisia. Instead it suggests that future studies on the topic should focus on the EU Commission’s own projections of its policies, a more thorough study on policy effects of specific treaty- and policy provisions, and/ or how neoliberal approaches have recently evolved in development policies.

This paper examines the effects of the exchange rate on bilateral industry trade in Sweden's trade with the Euro area. This is done by examining whether the J-curve effect exists using quarterly data from 1995 until 2022. Since becoming floating in the 1990s, the Swedish Krona has weakened significantly and recently, the discussion about the weakness of the Swedish Krona has gained renewed attention. Since Sweden is a small and open economy highly dependent on international trade, changes in the exchange rate may have large effects on the Swedish economy. The J-curve effect implies that the trade balance following a depreciation may initially worsen before later improving. The ARDL-approach is employed to obtain both short- and long-run effects of a depreciation on Swedish trade balance. In the 66 industries studied, little support can be found for a J-curve effect in Sweden's trade with the Euro area. Although 27 industries present short-run effects of a depreciation only five lasts until the long-run. Similarly, the results indicate that industries with a lower share of foreign inputs in their exports are affected more favourable than those with a higher share in the short run. No such results are found in the long run.