Following the development of international trade, exchange rate uncertainty is a majorsource of risk for corporations involved in international activities. It has forcedmanagers and academics to pay more attention to the effect of exchange rate volatilityon firm value, particularly in developed countries. In the 1990s Asian financial crises,the stock return volatility of US multinational firms increases significantly with therapid expansion of Asian currency crises to world stock market. It led academics andinvestors to pay increasing attention to examine exchange rate exposure in Asia stockmarkets. Nowadays the value of U.S. dollar increased volatility against Asian countries’currency since U.S. financial crisis beginning in August 2007. From what we know, fewof researches report the impact of US financial crisis for Asia firms. This paper aims toexplore the relation between exchange rate movement and firm values in Asian markets. The main purpose of this paper is to examine whether a significant contemporaneousand lagged variability of Asian firms’ stock returns are affected by exchange ratemovement in Asian markets, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Taiwan, andMalaysia during the period from August 2005 to March 2010. Differences of capitalmaturity were compared with among these five Asian economies, covering bothdeveloped markets and emerging markets in Asia. This comparison makes sense tounderstand the efficient market hypothesis theory. In order to ensure our research’svalidity and reliability, sample firms are randomly chosen by the method of stratifiedsampling. The second step in this study is to examine the impact of firm-specific factorson sensitivity to exchange rate movement for those firms with a significant exchangerate exposure. The five firm specific factors are firm size, leverage situation, hedgingactivities, foreign involvement level, and industry classification. The main methods inthis quantitative research are simple and multiple linear regressions. The ordinary leastsquares method in SPSS program was used to estimate the parameters for eachindependent variable. Using a sample of 182 listed firms in these five sample markets, except China,exchange rate exposure of firms in other four Asian markets increases significantly insome sub-period during three sub-periods. After examining the sensitivity to weeklyexchange rate movement of local currency to US Dollar, it is noticeable for academicsthat there is no obvious difference between developed markets and emerging markets inAsia during the period of August 2005 to March 2010. Moreover, the relationshipbetween exchange rate and stock returns varied from markets with respect to exchangerate regimes and level of capital control. As to firm-specific factors, firm size wasnegatively related to exchange rate exposure and this effect was stronger in developedmarkets than other. Similar to previous studies, Asian markets also showed thatexchange rate exposure differed among industries. However, the effect on exchange rateexposure is not significant caused by leverage, foreign sales and hedging activityinvolvement. Suggestions and recommendations for further studies are provided in thelast part of this paper.

本論文的目的在於研究匯率波動與對外直接投資(foreign direct investment, FDI)時點的關係。本論文採用實質選擇權分析法(real options approach)由理論面重新檢視這個議題，並利用實際資料驗證理論的正確性。本論文在文獻上的貢獻在於證明：在探討匯率波動與FDI關係時有必要考慮廠商投資動機的差異性。 為了說明不同投資動機對這個議題的重要性，本論文考慮四種不同對外直接投資的型態，分別為市場導向型(market-seeking)、回銷導向型(reverse- importing) 、替代出口型(export-substituting)及躍過反傾銷稅型(antidumping- dumping)。首先，我們延伸Dixit-Pindyck的實質選擇權模型，證明匯率波動提高會使市場導向型及回銷導向型的廠商延後投資，但對於風險趨避程度夠高的替代出口型廠商而言，匯率波動提高則會使其提前投資。此外，我們證明地主國貨幣升值對市場導向型廠商的FDI有利，但對回銷導向及替代出口型廠商的FDI則有不利影響。 其次，我們分別使用台商至中國大陸投資的產業資料及廠商資料進行實證。樣本期間涵蓋1987年至2002年。實證結果發現，新台幣兌人民幣實質匯率及其波動度與兩岸相對工資等因素對台商至中國大陸投資時點皆有顯著的影響，而且這些實證結果皆與前述理論預期相符。這些結果顯示，匯率波動對FDI之影響方向與投資動機息息相關。在進行實證研究時若忽略了這項因素，實證結果可能會產生加總偏誤(aggregation bias)。 最後，本論文建立一個不完全競爭下的實質選擇權模型，分別探討匯率波動如何影響出口廠商的傾銷行為及其躍過反傾銷稅的對外直接投資 (antidumping-　jumping FDI)，並分析進口國採取反傾銷政策的福利效果。我們發現匯率波動對廠商以低於內銷價格傾銷(price dumping)至出口市場的影響有不對稱(asymmetry)現象。此外，若政府採取反傾銷政策，可能刺激出口廠商採行躍過反傾銷稅的FDI。惟若出口廠商採行躍過反傾銷稅的FDI，不僅進口國國內廠商受到傷害，其社會福利也可能下降。此結論與過去策略性貿易政策文獻之看法大相逕庭。 / This thesis theoretically and empirically examines the relationship between exchange rate movements and the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI). A real options approach is adopted. This thesis contributes to the literature in illustrating the importance to consider the diversity of investing motives when examining the relationship between exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment. To show the importance of the diversity of the motives in investigating this issue, four different types of FDI are discussed in this thesis: market-seeking FDI, reverse-importing FDI, export-substituting FDI, and antidumping-jumping FDI. We first extend Dixit-Pindyck’s real options model to show that while an increase in exchange rate volatility tends to delay the FDI activities of a market-seeking firm and a reverse-importing firm, it might accelerate the FDI activity of an export-substituting firm if the firm’s degree of risk aversion is high enough. In addition, it is also shown that while the depreciation of a host country’s currency tends to stimulate FDI activities of reverse-importing firms and export-substituting firms, the depreciation tends to deter FDI activity for market-seeking firms. With the industry-panel data and the firm-level data on Taiwan’s outward FDI into mainland China over the period 1987-2002, our empirical findings indicate that the exchange rate level and its volatility in addition to the relative wage rate have had a significant impact on Taiwanese firms’ outward FDI into China. In general, the empirical results are consistent with the prediction of the theory. These results reveal that the relationship between exchange rate movements and FDI is crucially dependent on the motives of the investing firms. Without considering this fact in an empirical model, the testing results might suffer from aggregations bias. Furthermore, this thesis sets up a real options model with imperfect competition to analyze how exchange rate movements affect dumping occurrence and antidumping-　jumping FDI as well as the social welfare of importing country. We consider the price dumping case and find that the effect of exchange rate movements on the probability of dumping occurrence seems asymmetric. In addition, if a government adopts an AD policy, it is shown that this policy might induce exporting firms to undertake AD-jumping FDI. Finally, we find that, if an AD policy induces exporting firms to undertake AD-jumping FDI, the policy might have a negative impact on the profits of local firms and the social welfare of the importing country as well, which is contrary to the prediction of the earlier literature on strategic trade policy.